Articles Regarding Pakistan
CPEC: Prospects and Challenges
By: Waqar Hassan | July 31, 2024
HISTORY shows that alliances enable states to prosper greatly. Global power dynamics shift when states unite to showcase their economic and strategic strength. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an extremely ambitious project of great significance. This corridor aims to strengthen the relationship between Pakistan and China, promoting collaboration in social, cultural and economic domains. The extensive network of railways, highways and pipelines known as CPEC connects Gwadar Port in Pakistan to China’s Xinjiang region. China benefits from CPEC, while Pakistan has the chance to transform Baluchistan and improve the country’s socio-economic indicators.
CPEC has been hailed as a game changer for Pakistan’s economy, although there are concerns about it becoming a debt trap. Despite the concerns stemming from Pakistan’s poor economic situation, CPEC offers a bright opportunity. CPEC is a significant milestone in Pakistan’s economic revitalization. Pakistan urgently requires improvements in its energy sector. Furthermore, there is a great need for substantial investment in Balochistan’s infrastructure. The purpose of CPEC’s energy projects is to alleviate Pakistan’s long-standing energy shortages and stimulate industrial and economic growth.
Furthermore, Pakistan must improve its export base. The development of CPEC will result in unparalleled infrastructure growth, job creation and industrial expansion. CPEC is predicted to boost trade efficiency by improving connectivity and reducing transportation expenses, making Pakistani exports more competitive globally. Furthermore, the project can improve regional integration and cooperation. Connecting Pakistan with China and other Central Asian countries, CPEC can make Pakistan a key trade hub in the region. The enhanced connectivity is considered a driving force for socio-economic progress, particularly in less developed regions such as Balochistan. The CPEC initiatives have the potential to improve infrastructure and job prospects for the locals.
On the flip side, some circles have raised concerns about the dangers of getting trapped in a cycle of debt. Pakistan’s debt burden could worsen due to the loans and investment linked to CPEC. There is a fear that if Pakistan does not make enough money from CPEC projects to repay the debt, it may have to give up strategic assets to China, as Sri Lanka did with the Hambantota Port.
Critics highlight the absence of transparency and the potential for corruption in CPEC agreements as worrisome. Proper oversight and accountability are being demanded by critics to maximize the benefits of CPEC for all. A few segments fear that unequal distribution of CPEC benefits may result in social and political tensions among provinces. Moreover, concerns have arisen among local communities regarding the environmental effects of extensive infrastructure initiatives, potentially affecting local communities in the long run. The CPEC project is a transformative force that should be pursued with unwavering optimism and full force. CPEC is a beacon of hope for Pakistan and a path forward for addressing the country’s long-standing economic and infrastructural challenges. Robust monitoring and evaluation mechanisms are necessary to prevent debt crisis risks in CPEC projects.
Furthermore, transparency is viewed as vital not only for deterring corruption but also for fostering public trust and gaining backing for CPEC. To maximize the impact of CPEC, it is crucial to involve provincial governments and local communities in decision-making, ensuring a balanced distribution of its benefits. To reduce harm to local ecosystems and populations, the government needs to implement comprehensive environmental and social impact assessments.
Developing a comprehensive CPEC trade and economic policy is crucial for Pakistan, with a focus on making the corridor a key driver of export growth. Activating idle infrastructure and energy plants is crucial for Pakistan to avoid getting trapped in China’s debt cycle. Pakistan can utilize CPEC to achieve sustainable economic growth by transitioning from a security-oriented state to a developmental state. The successful implementation of CPEC projects relies on achieving political consensus, especially in regions like Balochistan. The underdeveloped region of Balochistan stands to gain significant benefits from CPEC. Pakistan can promote stability and inclusivity by addressing the socio-economic issues of the Baloch people and improving their living conditions through CPEC projects.
The establishment of a national task force is crucial for examining the CPEC debt liability and servicing. The task force must analyze the financial effects of CPEC projects, negotiate advantageous terms with China, and create debt management strategies. By taking this approach, Pakistan can prevent excessive debt and guarantee the long-term viability of CPEC. The study of China’s culture and governance models via CPEC can offer valuable insights to Pakistan. Pakistan can improve its governance and economic policies by studying China’s development experiences and implementing relevant practices. Cultural exchanges have the potential to enhance bilateral relations and promote mutual understanding between both countries.
To achieve sustainable development, Pakistan should adopt a comprehensive trade and economic policy, build political consensus and ensure effective oversight of CPEC. CPEC offers a wealth of opportunities for Pakistan. Nevertheless, some obstacles must be dealt with to expedite the progress of CPEC. Pakistan is in serious need of projects like this to boost regional connectivity and offer opportunities to its population. It’s crucial to make wise decisions now to ensure that this project reaches its highest level of progress and that the two countries can truly accomplish what is expected from CPEC. Pakistan sees CPEC as a vital source of support, like an oxygen cylinder, to help overcome the current economic, political, and social difficulties. We need to take every necessary action to ensure the success of CPEC. This is a crucial opportunity for the country’s prosperity, and we can’t afford to lose it.
CPEC, Pakistan and Wakhan Corridor: A Reality or Mirage
By: Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan | July 31, 2024
The completion of the Wakhan Corridor (WC) up to the Chinese border has become a hot topic among the academia, research scholars and strategists in the country. Even the policy-makers and main stakeholders are worried and terming it a strategic blow to CPEC and so-called strategic depth. Conversely, the Chinese policy makers have not yet resumed this corridor because of serious security threats, especially potential backlash from the ISIS-K in Xinging region.
The ongoing Mexican wave of deadly terrorism in the country has alarmed spillover geopolitical and geostrategic repercussions which has worsened prospects of seeking more and more inflows of FDIs, exploring potential of joint ventures and last but not the least, stability and sustainability of the national economy. Even strategic importance, utility and scope of the SIFC is at stake.
Unfortunately, reactivation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Majeed Group, BLA and their trans-regional alliance with ISIS-K is a wake-up call for the government and the military junta. China has serious security concerns that Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region may face a resurgence of deadly terrorism infiltrating through the WC. Most recently, many reports of the Economist, UN and other international organizations confirm that terror groups are using Afghanistan as a platform.
Critical analysis discloses that the Chinese policy-makers are worried about transnational linkages between Afghans and Xinjiang Uyghurs. The possible support to separatists of Xinjiang from Islamic groups active in Afghanistan is a major concern for China. The TTP and The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) would be a potential risk for the Chinese and Xinjiang if proper security measures and anti-terrorism mechanisms could not be installed.
The WC holds potential for both positive and negative impacts on Pakistan. Ideally, it could extend the CPEC from Pakistan to Tajikistan through Afghanistan, linking Central Asian States with Karachi and Gwadar ports. However, it may also undermine Pakistan’s CPEC ambitions by diminishing its strategic importance in the current Afghanistan transit trade mechanism. The WC could establish a significant highway linkage between Tajikistan and Pakistan via Azad Kashmir, enhancing trade and economic activity. It might facilitate the exchange of minerals, textiles, agricultural products and manufactured goods, with Central Asian States exporting resources like oil, gas and minerals, and importing textiles, machinery and electronics. Similarly, China, Nepal and India are exploring cooperation through the Trans-Himalayan Corridor to benefit from mountain resources such as water, energy and tourism. Like the Trans-Himalayan initiative, the WC presents an opportunity for cooperation, necessitating a national debate on its prospects and challenges.
Geographically, the WC is unique as it is situated at the crossroads of four countries: China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. It is the shortest trade route for Pakistan to reach Central Asia and for China to enter Afghanistan. The famous Broghal Pass (Chitral) is serving as the most important gateway for Pakistan to the WC. Wakhan Chitral River Route starting from Brogohail Pass to Gwadar Port along Chitral River can also link Jalalabad with Chitral.
The proposed route will also serve as an alternate to Karakoram Highway for China and Pakistan as a safeguard against any aggression by India as the proposed route will be 135 km away from India as compared to Karakorum Highway and will be out of India- claimed Gilgit-Baltistan.
The construction of this road will also benefit other countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Pakistan as it creates a significant opportunity for increasing trade and economic activity in the region. This route can further facilitate the trade of various commercial goods between the respective countries.
The Wakhan Corridor is poised to gain significant geostrategic importance for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan due to shifting regional alignments. The opening of the Wakhjir Pass from China is expected to boost regional trade and connections. However, the WC is also exploited by terrorist groups such as Harakat Al-Mujahideen, Jund-ul-Allah, TTP and the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT), raising concerns that an open and porous Tajik border could soon pose serious security issues for Central Asian countries and China. The Corridor is a conduit for human trafficking, drug flow and terrorism, threatening China’s efforts to curb terrorism. Additionally, the WC is crucial for biodiversity conservation, with potential development areas including the Big Pamir, Teggermansu and Wakhjir Valley, underscoring its global significance for biodiversity.
According to many prominent security experts, opening up the WC will support Pakistan’s security and strategic interests by facilitating increased military maneuvering and countermeasures against Indian intrusions in Gilgit-Baltistan from the Ladakh region. The areas across the Qala Panja, Mintaka and Wakhjir Passes interlink Gilgit-Baltistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, establishing a critical connection.
In summary, the increasing diplomatic momentum between Pakistan and Tajikistan should be further geared up by starting construction of their own joint Wakhan Corridor connecting Afghanistan and China. Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and Tajikistan Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM) to counter terrorism should also be strengthened as opening up of the WC.
Integrated efforts should be initiated to stop the movement of terrorists between Pakistan and Afghanistan through effective border management. A joint collaborative strategy to counter militant groups in and around the WC is the need of hour.
Interestingly, the WC is considered as an alternative to Pakistani ports, particularly since the countries to the north of Afghanistan prioritize economics and trade over politics which must be countered through strategic projection and facilitation of the Gwadar Sea port.
A hybrid trans-regional security umbrella under the SCO RATS may also be implemented to secure vested interests of all the regional countries. Holding of regular Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral strategic dialogue may also be a right way to move forward.
An enhanced military cooperation among Pakistan and Central Asian countries would be a big peaceful push to maintain peace, stability and harmony in the region. Formation of an effective anti-human & drugs force may be an innovative idea to implement to further extend the CPEC and BRI in Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the days to come. A holistic and comprehensive strategy focusing on the possible positives that may emerge, and for minimizing the potentially negative impact it may have on the country’s trade from the WC.
Pakistan’s Maritime Command
By: Saleem Abbas | July 31, 2024
THE Pakistan Navy has assumed the responsibilities of the combined Task Force 150(CTF 150) for the 13th time, aimed to provide maritime security against piracy and illegal activities at the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. The ceremony of the transfer of command was held at the Headquarters of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT), Bahrain. While speaking on this prestigious event, Pakistan assured that the Pakistan Navy has the full potential to work with the coalition of navies to combat illegal activities at sea; and to provide safe and secure maritime routes for regional stability and peace within the area of responsibility. Furthermore, for the safety and security of the sea, there is an utter need for a coalition of different navies to promote stability and peace in the region and beyond the region as well.
In the light of much-needed cooperation for the security of the sea, after the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001, Combined Task Force 150 was established under the control of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command (CENTCOM). It is a multinational coalition of different Navies including Australia, Canada, Denmark, New Zealand, Pakistan, Spain, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands the United Kingdom, and the United States. Under the combined Maritime Force (CMF), CTF 150 carried out its Maritime Security Operations (MSO) beyond the Arabian Gulf to provide safe and secure trade routes for commercial ships. The purpose of this task force was to assume the counter-terrorism efforts at sea as a component of Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF); and to address maritime security threats by non-state actors to member states of this coalition. The responsibility of this Task Force rotates among its member states for about four months. Consequently, CTF 150 is an important multinational coalition between different partners to deal with traditional and emerging security challenges of the sea that creates hurdles in the navigation of ships and trade routes for business activities.
In the maritime domains, there are a number of security threats and risks for the international community such as piracy and armed robbery, disputes on maritime boundaries between states, extremism, and terrorism in which terrorist organizations use maritime routes for the transfer of weapons, funding, attacks and to occupy the strategic choke points, which poses a significant challenge for international trade and other legal activities. Moreover, there are emerging non-traditional threats such as to the environment, and polluted waterthat have harmful impacts on the life of aquatic organisms. Furthermore, cyber threats, illegal fishing, drug and human tracking also imposed a serious issue for maritime affairs. To combat such security challenges, CTF 150 has played a significant role in curbing these issues by taking effective measures for its member states and the international community.
The UK-French Combined Staff assumed the command of Combined Task Force 150 from the Pakistan Navyto provide security in maritime affairs in the region. Over the last four months, under the Command of UK-French, CTF 150 have carried out boarding operations, built up maritime counter-terrorism capabilities, seized almost 25,175 Kg of narcotics which denied the transfer of US$ 19.5M to the terrorist organizations, and remained the most vigilant and active emergency unit for the assistance of the maritime community in case of any emergency call or disaster.
Presently, Pakistan has assumed the command of this Taskforce which brings responsibilities and liabilities to improve the security condition of maritime routes for trade and other legal activities. Previously, the Pakistan Navy had done an impressive job in tackling maritime issues such as human trafficking, counter-terrorism activities, seized narcotics, and saved the lives of people through emergency disaster relief. Furthermore, the Pakistan Navy has taken the prestigious step of building the Maritime Counter Terrorism Centre (MCTC) and 2nd Force Protection Battalion to train special service groups and other law enforcement agencies (LEAs), such as live fire shoots houses, training of navy force in urban terrain, and Close Quarter Combat Ranges to increase the efforts of counter-terrorism activities, to protect the Karachi harbour, provide humanitarian assistance, natural disaster relief and to deal with all kind of emergency such as flood, etc.
In conclusion, The Pakistan Navy has assumed the command of Combined Task Force 150 for the 13th time due to its distinction services and the trust of its partners in the capability of the force to tackle the traditional and emerging issues of the maritime domain. This includes providing secure maritime routes, combat terrorism, human trafficking, illegal fishing, environmental issues, humanitarian assistance, set special emergency centres to tackle natural disasters, anti-smuggling efforts, protect the areas and routes which are known for piracy and illegal activities, and all other traditional and non-traditional security threats to the international trade. Even in this term of the command of CTF 150, the Commander of the Pakistan Navy Commodore Asim Sohail Malik, assured that his team has full potential to work and coordinate with coalition partners to provide safe and secure maritime routes from all kinds of threats.
A Bridge that endangers South Asia
By: Qamar Bashir | July 31, 2024
While we in Pakistan are hurling accusations and threats at each other, India has quietly tightened its grip on Indian-Occupied Kashmir and improved its standing along the 3500 Km disputed border by silently building a bridge on the rugged Himalayas gorge. This bridge has successfully linked the Kashmir valley to the vast Indian plains by train to achieve three strategic objectives: to further tighten its grip on Indian-Occupied Kashmir, to contain Pakistan, and to meet the perceived rising strategic threat from China.
The bridge, named “Chenab Rail Bridge”, is the highest of its kind in the world and has been hailed as a feat of engineering that will play a pivotal role in both peace and wartime, facilitating the movement of army personnel in larger numbers than was previously possible.
The 1,315-meter-long steel and concrete $24 million bridge connects two mountains with an arch 359 meters above the Chenab River, completing the vital link of the 272-kilometer railway that begins in the garrison city of Udhampur, headquarters of the army’s Northern Command, and runs through the region’s capital Srinagar. It terminates a kilometer higher in altitude in Baramulla, a gateway trade town near the Line of Control with Pakistan. The railway cost an estimated $3.9 billion and has been an immense undertaking, with construction beginning nearly three decades ago. This bridge is the biggest civil engineering challenge faced by any railway project in India in recent times, which would revolutionize logistics in Ladakh bordering China, achieving a huge military advantage.
Earlier, the Indian military had to stockpile supplies, military equipment, and ammunition transported by road in Ladakh for six months every year before the roads closed for winter. With the construction of the bridge, the military will have a year-long sustainable supply line. This project will also give birth to several other road tunnel projects to connect Kashmir and Ladakh, not far from India’s frontiers with China and Pakistan.The completion of this vital bridge has given India a multitude of advantages across military, strategic, economic, political, and security dimensions. Militarily, it enhances troop mobility and logistical efficiency, enabling rapid deployment and sustained supply lines in Indian-Occupied Kashmir. Strategically, it strengthens India’s position against China and Pakistan, acting as a deterrent and reinforcing territorial control. Economically, the bridge promotes regional development by attracting investment, boosting trade, and enhancing tourism. Politically, it symbolizes national integration, facilitates policy implementation, and contributes to political stability by improving living standards. Security-wise, it bolsters disputed border monitoring and counter-insurgency operations, ensuring civilian safety and reinforcing India’s overall security posture in the region.
The Chenab Rail Bridge represents a significant strategic development with far-reaching implications for China-India relations, India-Pakistan dynamics, the Kashmiri struggle for freedom, and the broader South Asian region. This infrastructure project enhances India’s logistical and military capabilities in the region, particularly along the contested borders with China. By improving troop and equipment mobility, India strengthens its defensive and offensive positions, signaling its readiness to counter any potential threats from China. This development not only increases India’s military readiness but also supports its broader strategy of counterbalancing China’s influence in South Asia. It would also give much-needed impetus to the strategic interests of both the USA and the West, which are supporting India and propping it as a counterbalance against China.
For India-Pakistan relations, the Chenab Rail Bridge exacerbates existing tensions, particularly over the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir. The improved infrastructure allows India to bolster its military presence in the area, which, in Pakistan’s view, should be a direct threat to its security and territorial claims. This increased militarization could lead to further conflicts and heightened diplomatic tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Moreover, the international community may pay closer attention to the ongoing conflict in Kashmir, potentially influencing geopolitical dynamics and the involvement of global powers.
The Kashmiri population faces both opportunities and threats from the Chenab Rail Bridge. While improved infrastructure might bring economic benefits, there are significant concerns about demographic changes and the erosion of Kashmiri autonomy. Easier access to the region could lead to an influx of outsiders, potentially marginalizing the local population and undermining their unique cultural and linguistic identity. This development could intensify the resistance among Kashmiris, fueling their long-standing demand for self-determination and merger with Pakistan. Additionally, the increased militarization facilitated by the bridge might lead to more human rights violations, drawing international condemnation and support for the Kashmiri cause.
Pakistan should also intensify its international diplomacy to highlight that the construction of the Chenab Rail Bridge in Indian-Occupied Kashmir is a direct violation of the UNSC resolutions. By building such strategic infrastructure, India is unilaterally altering the status quo of the region, thereby undermining the spirit and intent of the UNSC resolutions, which call for maintaining the disputed nature of the territory until a fair and impartial plebiscite is conducted under UN auspices. This not only challenges the legal and international status of Jammu and Kashmir but also raises significant concerns about India’s commitment to resolving the issue peacefully and in accordance with international law.
In the broader context of South Asia, the Chenab Rail Bridge influences regional stability, economic development, and strategic alliances. By enhancing India’s strategic posture, the project could destabilize the region by increasing military capabilities and heightening tensions with both Pakistan and China. However, improved infrastructure in Jammu and Kashmir could also foster economic growth through increased trade and connectivity within India and potentially with neighbouring countries. This project could serve as a model for similar initiatives in the region, promoting economic development and regional connectivity if managed diplomatically.
To neutralize India’s advantages after completing the Chenab Rail Bridge, Pakistan should adopt a multifaceted strategy. Militarily, Pakistan should enhance its defensive preparedness. Economically, Pakistan must build resilience, and develop infrastructure in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. Additionally, fostering political unity within Pakistan and ensuring good governance and human rights in Azad Kashmir will further strengthen Pakistan’s position.
Pakistan should also intensify its international diplomacy to highlight that the construction of the Chenab Rail Bridge in Indian-Occupied Kashmir is a direct violation of the UNSC resolutions. By building such strategic infrastructure, India is unilaterally altering the status quo of the region, thereby undermining the spirit and intent of the UNSC resolutions, which call for maintaining the disputed nature of the territory until a fair and impartial plebiscite is conducted under UN auspices. This not only challenges the legal and international status of Jammu and Kashmir but also raises significant concerns about India’s commitment to resolving the issue peacefully and in accordance with international law.
Human Cost of Political Decisions: Kashmir Post-Article 370
By: Javed Iqbal | July 31, 2024
Since the beginning of the Kashmir issue, a lot has been written on the worst kind of brutalities and state sponsored terrorism by Indian security forces. During the last seven decades, innocent Kashmiris faced the worst form of suppression and fascism but unfortunately did not succeed in awakening the consciousness of the world community. Till date, violations of UN Security Council resolutions and Human Rights are making mockery of so-called torch-bearers of Human rights.
5th Aug 2019 is remembered as the Black Day in the history of IIOJ&K. Five years ago, the BJP’s dream project of revocation of Article 370 & 35-A was implemented. The evil mind of Modi opted for this move of demographics plan in IIOJ&K on the pattern of Israeli model as all tactics of Indian government failed to suppress Kashmiris. Revocation of Article 370 was a sheer violation of international laws and United Nations resolutions. This illegal act gave absolute authority in the hands of occupational forces to change the status of Kashmiris from majority to minority.
Under this plan, the Modi government has given property rights and granted domicile status to non-Kashmiris, majority of them being non-Kashmiri Hindus. The Modi government also approved establishment of separate housing colonies of pundits and Sainik in the IIOJK. Although the Modi government has tried its level best to portray perception of normalcy in the occupied valley, ground realities are altogether different as lockdown, curfew, clampdown on political workers and journalists are being exercised with full impunity.
5th Aug 2019 is remembered as the Black Day in the history of IIOJ&K. Five years ago, the BJP’s dream project of revocation of Article 370 & 35 A was implemented.
To silence dissident voices, Indian security forces have killed 887 Kashmiris, 2,430 tortured, 24, 688 arrested and 133 women gang raped since the revocation of Article 370. The Indian security forces with unlimited powers and full support of the state machinery could not defeat the courage of Kashmiris. They are sacrificing their life on a daily basis with the conviction that one day they will get reward for their struggle.
Kashmiris are facing existential threats; the world community must come forward and help in implementation of United Nations resolution. They must understand that it is a matter of peace for the entire region as without resolution of the Kashmir issue, no one can guarantee peace and prosperity of the region. It’s time to put an end to the suffering of humanity at hands of Indian occupational forces.
All human rights and United Nation bodies must exert their pressure on the Indian government to reverse its 5th Aug 2019 decision as it is a sheer violation of Geneva Convention and UN resolutions.
It’s high time for the world community to come forward and play their role for the sake of humanity. Indian security forces have no moral and legal justification to continue their illegal actions against Kashmiris. The Indian government’s acts are a contravention of international law, including the UN Charter, UN Security Council resolutions, and the 4th Geneva Convention.
Strengthening Pak-US relations
By: Dr Tehmina Aslam Ranjha | July 31, 2024
On July 23, in Washington, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs of the United States (US) Donald Lu said that the US administration had sought a budget of $101 million from Congress for Pakistan to help strengthen its democracy, to assist it fight terrorism and to prod it into stabilizing the economy. Lu even went beyond his mandate to brag that “China is the past in terms of investment, and we are the future.” Perhaps, Lu did not know that Pakistan was the third biggest recipient of Chinese development finance worldwide.
However, on July 24, in Islamabad, the US Ambassador Donald Blome applauded publicly Pakistan’s contributions to counter-terrorism and underlined the US’ commitment to support Pakistan in this regard. Blome also said that the US was willing to do economic collaboration to improve renewable energy, climate management, trade, health, education, and other development sectors in Pakistan. Blome said so while addressing an international conference titled “Strengthening Pakistan-US relations” arranged by private bodies.
What prompted Lu to boast is not known but, in his address, Blome highlighted three main themes. First, the threat of terrorism was not over yet. To combat terrorism, the US would always be a willing partner of Pakistan. Second, burgeoning young population in Pakistan was a reality. Pakistan’s concern should be to educate it and tap its potential productively, before some ignorant youth turn to the path of terrorism. Third, Pakistan was struggling to find economic opportunities for survival.
To combat terrorism, the US would always be a willing partner of Pakistan.
If not in the field of economic survival of Pakistan, the issue of terrorism has converged the priorities of both China and the US to press upon Pakistan to do more. China wants the quashing of terrorism to protect its engineers working on various development projects in Pakistan, whereas the US yearns for the obliteration of terrorism as a follow-up to its war on terror, which continued for two decades (2001-2021) mostly in and around Afghanistan. Both China and the US have different reasons to expect from Pakistan to scale up counter-terrorism efforts.
Presently, Pakistan stands at a cross-road. On the one hand, Pakistan is under immense domestic pressure not to start any military operation (whether or not under the rubric of Azm-e-Istehkam), which could adversely affect the lives and properties of people inhabiting the north-west borders. On the other hand, Pakistan is being hard pressed by both of its allies (China and the US) to initiate a counter-terrorism heave to ensure domestic and regional stability. Both countries expect that any surge in terrorism should be quelled immediately.
In his address, using subdued words, Blome prognosticated a long term challenge confronting Pakistan: a young dynamic generation, mostly without education, looking for economic survival. The triad is worrisome, so are its prospects for peace. To elaborate, with the persistence of the triad, terrorism will find new recruits recurrently to continue its spell. The triad offers life to terrorism. One military operation tramples over one crop of terrorists; however, after a few years, the next crop gets ready. This is why Pakistan has to launch one military operation after the other after every few years to stamp out any existing wave of terrorism. A wave dies offering some respite until the next wave is ready. The cycle will continue unless the triad is wrecked.
Certainly, Pakistan is keen to have amiable relations with both China and the US, though both are growing hostile to each other politico-economically. Nevertheless, countering terrorism is a shared objective. Both China and the US has told Pakistan this point separately but emphatically. However, domestic pressure speaks otherwise, pushing Pakistan into a quandary.
On July 24, in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, a 40-member Bannu Aman Jirga (an assembly of elders for peace in Bannu) not only opposed any military operation (whether or not in the name of Azm-e-Istehkam, which was initiated on June 22 against Islamic militants and Baloch seperatists), but the Jirga also demanded defenestrating the concept of good Taliban (those who had surrendered to the security forces). In their demands presented to the provincial chief minister, the Jirga not only sought an end to the centers of the good Taliban, but the Jirga also demanded an end to pickets and patrols demonstrated by the good Taliban. By saying so, the Jirga questioned selectivity presiding over the state’s policy, favouring one type of Taliban. Nevertheless, the Jirga made one point clear: the locals took exception to the bias practised by the state.
Now, the challenge before Pakistan is narrowed down to assess if the country is in a position to open a front against both kinds of Taliban: good and bad. An obvious answer is in the negative. The discriminatory policy of Pakistan has boomeranged to haunt it at the wrong time. Yet, Pakistan cannot do away with the distinction practically. The reason is that the Taliban who do not want to confront with the state need not be harmed. Unnecessary blood shed is prohibitory. It is the duty of the civil administration to establish the writ of the state in remote areas especially after the merger of former tribal areas into the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The other side of the picture is that the provincial administration claims that it does not have the wartime equipment (mostly smuggled from Afghanistan) carried by the good Taliban to stop them from their activities: roaming freely in an area and interfering in the routine of the locals. It is the incapacity of the provincial administration that has brought the situation to the fore.
The baseline is that Pakistan cannot withstand the pressure to launch a military operation, whether diffuse or scattered, against the bad Taliban, who dare challenge the security forces, attack foreigners, and disrupt the even tenor of life. Peace is at stake, so are the chances of foreign investment. The coalescence of counter-terrorism interests of China and the US is leaving no space for Pakistan to equivocate.
The knowledge economy imperative
By: Atta-ur-Rahman | July 31, 2024
Knowledge has now become the key factor in determining socio-economic development. The failure of governance in Pakistan is exemplified by a comparison to Singapore.
Singapore has hardly any natural resources and a population of only 5.5 million, about one-fourth of Karachi. Yet its exports last year were a stupendous $390 billion, due to its visionary leadership that realized that in a knowledge-driven world, the road to progress lies in innovation. Pakistan’s exports, alas, stagnate at only about $35 billion, far lower than even those of Bangladesh, justifying the urgent need for change.
We need an honest, visionary and technologically competent leadership that realizes that our country cannot develop without massive investments in education, science, technology, and innovation (ESTI). The ‘triple helix’ model for a knowledge economy requires dynamic interaction between proper government policies, high-quality universities and research institutions, and the private sector. It is only through tapping into the huge potential of our 120 million youth that Pakistan can leap forward.
A few examples of how innovation is impacting economies are presented here. Let us first look at the agricultural sector. There are growing global water shortages and decreasing availability of cultivable land caused by the huge increases in the world population (which has now crossed seven billion). This is resulting in increasing efforts by scientists to come up with new, more efficient ways of growing food plants that have higher productivity but need lower amounts of water, fertilizer, nutrients, and pesticides to grow.
In this connection, scientists at Purdue University have discovered that a certain chemical can be used to reduce the size of the plant without reducing its yield. They found that a common fungicide, propiconazole, can create smaller and sturdier corn plants that produce more kernels but consume less water, fertilizer, and nutrients. The fungicide is claimed to be harmless to humans as it is commonly sprayed on golf courses to treat fungal dollar spot disease. Advanced agriculture is resulting in huge increases in yields with the aid of sensors that can predict and optimize the use of water, fertilizers and pesticides.
In another interesting development, seawater is beginning to be used for cultivating food crops. One way to convert saline water (seawater or brackish underground water) into salt-free fresh water, useful for drinking or farming, is by a process known as ‘reverse osmosis’. This involves pumping the saline water through a special polymeric membrane that allows only water molecules to pass through the pores of the membrane but prevents salt, bacteria, and dirt from doing so.
However, a drawback of this process is that over time, these particles clog up the expensive membrane and damage it. This results in the need for regular costly membrane replacements, increasing costs. Scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, have now used nanotechnology to develop a new type of reverse osmosis membrane covered with small polymeric hairs. These surface hairs move around rapidly in the water-pumping process, thereby acting as a brush that prevents the deposition of impurities on the membrane surface.
Turning now to health sciences, an important recent development is in the field of aging. How do we age? Can we slow the aging process and prolong life spans? These are questions that have attracted the attention of many medicinal chemists and biochemists. In adults, about 50 to 70 billion cells die each day by a process of programmed cell death built into the structure of each cell (‘apoptosis’). In children between the ages of 8 to 14, some 20 to 30 billion cells die every day, and even more are replaced by new cells. Over a year, this amounts to about the complete body weight of the child.
Oxygen, so vital for our survival, in its reactive form (oxygen radicals), is intriguingly also responsible for the aging process by causing damage to our DNA molecules. That is why antioxidants, such as vitamin C or certain compounds present in red grapes and certain vegetables, are thought to be good for us. Science has already led to increases in life spans over the last hundred years due to better medical care in most parts of the world.
Several compounds have been discovered in the last five years that not only slow down the aging process but have been shown to reverse it. When given to mice, they made the mice physically younger. These compounds include resveratrol, nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD), and an FDA-approved drug for diabetes, metformin. Innovations such as those described above are earning billions of dollars for the countries that are manufacturing high-technology products.
Another sector where knowledge and innovation have significantly impacted socio-economic development is information technology (IT). Countries like India have made massive strides in the IT industry, turning cities like Bangalore into global technology hubs. This transformation has created millions of jobs, driven economic growth, and positioned India as a leader in the global tech industry.
The success of India's IT sector can be attributed to substantial investments in technical education, supportive government policies, and a strong private sector. By fostering a culture of innovation and entrepreneurship, India has been able to compete on the world stage, with its IT exports reaching over $150 billion.
Similarly, Estonia, a small Baltic nation, has emerged as one of the most digitally advanced countries in the world. Through its e-Estonia initiative, the country has digitized nearly all government services, creating a seamless and efficient digital society. This digital transformation has not only improved the quality of life for its citizens but also attracted foreign investment and boosted the economy. Estonia's success highlights the importance of integrating technology into governance and public services to drive socio-economic development.
Education and science remain badly neglected in Pakistan because of corrupt or incompetent leaders who have failed to invest in our real wealth: our children. There needs to be a radical change in our system of governance and a different form of democracy installed before it is too late, as suggested in this weekly series of articles.
Pakistan must prioritize investment in education, science, technology, and innovation to foster a knowledge-driven economy. By learning from the successes of countries like Singapore, India, and Estonia, Pakistan can develop a strategic vision to harness the potential of its youth and create a prosperous future.
The government must implement policies that support the development of high-quality educational institutions, promote research and innovation, and encourage collaboration between academia and the private sector. Only then can Pakistan unlock its true potential and achieve sustainable socio-economic development.
ACT 2024 encourages Modi’s Xenophobia
By: Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal | July 30, 2024
THE United States’ increasing strategic competition with China in the Asia-Pacific region and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Moscow has created a favourable Congressional leaning towards India. American policymakers are striving to sustain and further the Indo-US threshold alliance despite New Delhi’s distancing from NATO-plus, the US Ukraine policy, and continuing purchasing military hardware and oil from Russia.
The US intention to modernize Indian armed forces with the transfer of sophisticated military hardware and cooperation in the domain of new emerging technologies could destabilize the strategic stability in South Asia. Whether India will be able to check China’s increasing influence in the Asia-Pacific region is debatable. However, it will increase Pakistan’s security dilemma and obstruct Islamabad’s efforts to improve its bilateral relations with Washington.
The Biden Administration and American Congressmen are deliberately ignoring the Indian armed forces’ brutality in the Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir (IIOK) and Prime Minister Modi’s jingoism against Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi persistently alleges Pakistan to burnish his nationalistic credentials and to restore his declining popularity in the Indian polity. He seemed very frustrated due to the resurgence in Kashmiri fighters’ successful attacks on Indian soldiers and the complete failure of his brutal state-terrorism policy in the IIOK, which he unleashed on August 5, 2019.
Instead of resolving the Kashmir problem judiciously, Prime Minister Modi is repeating his old mantra that Pakistan is sponsoring “terrorism” and a “proxy war” against India. On July 26, 2024, while addressing the Indian soldiers and top army brass in Ladakh, he said,“ I want to tell these patrons of terrorism that their unholy plans will never be successful … Our brave [forces] will squash terrorism, the enemy will be given a befitting reply.” Prime Minister Modi’s befitting response statement alarms about the probability of a replica of India’s February 26, 2019, surgical strike. Modi’s military adventure will entail Pakistan’s quid pro quo-plus response. Notably, such an action-reaction has an inbuilt dynamic to spiral limited war into nuclear exchanges between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.
Ironically, instead of tutoring and encouraging Indian leadership to act rationally and avoid bravado and jingoism in the nuclearized region, the Americans are implicitly endorsing Modi’s warlike approach towards Pakistan. On July 26, 2024, US Senator Marco Rubio introduced a bill in Congress to improve defence cooperation between the United States and India’. The primary aim of the ‘‘United States-India Defence Cooperation Act of 2024’’ (Act 2024) is to equip India with advanced military technology. The bill pleads that India will be treated like the US closed allies such as Japan, Israel, South Korea, and NATO members.
The Americans are determined to consider India a closed ally despite New Delhi’s refusal to join the NATO-plus in June 2023. The NATO-plus is a security bloc of NATO and five countries—Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel, and South Korea. The United States Congressional Committee on the Chinese Communist Party recommended including India in NATO-plus in May 2023. The Committee stated, “Including India in NATO Plus security arrangements would build upon the US and India’s close partnership to strengthen global security and deter the aggression of China across the Indo-Pacific region. The NATO-plus status to India facilitates the alliance reach to China’s border in the Himalayas. A similar intention, once again, resurfaced in the recently proposed Act 2024 in the US Congress.
The proposed Act 2024 will authorize the Secretary of State to ‘increase military cooperation, including joint military exercises, personnel exchanges, support for international peacekeeping missions, and enhanced strategic dialogue. The US provides India with $2,000,000 for international military education and training for the fiscal years 2025 through 2027.Another alarming article of the bill is that the US administration to submit a report to Congress on Pakistan’s use of offensive force, including the use of proxies against India; a list of all instances in which Pakistan has provided safe haven to terrorist groups; and a determination and description of any assistance Islamabad has offered to militants in the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Ironically, the Act 2024 simply ignores the reality that India has launched a campaign of orchestrating targeted assassinations, subversion, and terrorism in foreign territories, including Pakistan.
The concluding section of the proposed Act 2024 seems to attempt to levy sanctions on Pakistan on the pretext that it is sponsoring terrorism in India. It states that if Pakistan uses offensive force against India, the former will not receive any security assistance under this Act or under any other Act. It states, “bar Pakistan from receiving security assistance if it is found to have sponsored terrorism against India.” Hence, the passage of the Act 2024 would further deteriorate Pakistan’s relations with the United States.
The increasing military power of India through the generous US military hardware and technology transfers and India’s exemption from the US Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions, which are a set of US sanctions aimed at countering Russian military trade intensifies Pakistan’s security dilemma. India had already received a few squadrons of the S-400 Triumf surface-to-air missile defence system from Russia, which it deployed on its western border.
To conclude, the proposed Act 2024 negates reality or admits and endorses India’s concocted reports that in Indian Illegally Occupied Kashmir, the Kashmiri freedom movement is not Indigenous, and it also undermines their right of self-determination enshrined in the United Nations Security Council resolutions. Moreover, it encourages Prime Minister Modi’s xenophobia towards Pakistan. Indeed, these developments are detrimental to South Asian strategic stability and economic prosperity.
Protecting the Innocence of Our Youth
By: Umme Haniya | July 30, 2024
In a world where darkness attempts to overshadow the light, our duty to protect the innocence of our young boys has never been more vital. The pride of our nation, and our children, are the very embodiment of hope and promise for a brighter future. Yet, they are being relentlessly targeted by insidious terrorist groups, who seek to lure them into a world of violence and exploitation. The exploitation of innocence by these malicious groups is a grave concern that demands our collective attention. Under the guise of false religious teachings, terrorists manipulate and twist the minds of our children, leading them down a treacherous path that robs them of their innocence and potential. We cannot stand idly by as our nation’s future is threatened by such malevolence.
The message to “Stand united against terrorism” must resound through every corner of our society. Our sons are not pawns to be wielded for destruction; they are the bearers of our hopes and dreams for a peaceful and prosperous future. It is our shared responsibility to shield them from the dark allure of terrorist propaganda and guide them towards a life filled with hope and promise.
Paigham-e-Pakistan Fatwa emphatically asserts that deeming our country, its government, or its forces as infidels is not only unfounded but also a grave transgression.
The digital landscape has become a battleground where our children are being targeted for radicalization. Terrorists exploit social media and online platforms to prey on the innocence and curiosity of our youth, leading them astray with toxic propaganda. It falls upon the shoulders of parents and teachers to be vigilant guardians, monitoring our children’s online activities and fostering an environment of openness and security at home.
Teachers, the stewards of knowledge and compassion, play a pivotal role in safeguarding our children from the perils of radicalization. By keenly observing changes in behaviour, educating students about online safety, and promoting youth activism and community engagement, they can fortify the defences against terrorist propaganda in our schools.
As a nation rooted in the values and teachings of Islam, it is incumbent upon us to uphold the true essence of our faith. The Paigham-e-Pakistan Fatwa emphatically asserts that deeming our country, its government, or its forces as infidels is not only unfounded but also a grave transgression. Encouraging our religious scholars to elucidate the true teachings of Islam and empowering our judiciary to discern acts of infidelity can dismantle the misconceptions and misinterpretations that terrorists exploit for their agenda.
Terrorist groups slyly entice and exploit the impressionable minds of our young boys for their nefarious designs. Upholding the true teachings of Islam is not just a duty; it is our shield against the misinterpretations propagated by terrorists. Protecting our children from radicalization is a collective responsibility that rests on the shoulders of parents, teachers, and society as a whole. By standing united against terrorism, we can fortify the innocence of our children and safeguard the future of our nation.
As we embark on this collective journey to shield our youth from the clutches of radicalization, let us remember that our children are the custodians of our dreams and aspirations. Let us unite in our resolve to protect their innocence, nurture their potential, and guide them towards a future filled with peace, promise, and prosperity. To protect our children and protect our future should not only be treated as a call to action for the parents or the teachers, but an unbreakable pledge to safeguard the very essence of our nation.
Transnational Repression of Modi’s Regime
By: Omay Aimen | July 30, 2024
“Justice will not be served until those who are unaffected are as outraged as those who are.”
Benjamin Franklin’s remarks strike a profound chord with the predicament facing the Sikh people and their protracted fight to create Khalistan, an autonomous state split off from Indian Punjab.
The historical and cultural differences that distinguish Sikhs from the rest of India are the source of the long-standing demand for Khalistan, a separate nation for Sikhs. Before falling victim to British colonial domination, the Indian Sikh Empire, which lasted from 1799 to 1849, highlighted a distinct Sikh political identity for around fifty years. This era, which stands for a time of autonomy and self-governance, is still deeply ingrained in Sikh thought.
The Sikh community has been deeply affected by a string of tragic and violent events that have intensified their impassioned calls for self-determination. The Sikh Genocide of 1984 is considered to be one of the most horrific episodes in contemporary Indian history. Thousands of Sikhs were massacred in a vicious anti-Sikh pogrom that broke out after Prime Minister Indira Gandhi was killed by her Sikh bodyguards.
The historical and cultural differences that distinguish Sikhs from the rest of India are the source of the long-standing demand for Khalistan, a separate nation for Sikhs.
The Sikh community became deeply estranged from and mistrusted of the Indian government as a result of this planned bloodshed, which fueled calls for Khalistan. The Golden Temple, the holiest Sikh site, was the focus of Operation Blue Star, a highly contentious military operation that was carried out to drive out insurgents. The collateral damage, including the desecration of the temple and significant civilian casualties, further deepened the community’s sense of victimization and marginalization.
The “Decade of Disappearances,” a grim period marked by extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances of Sikh youth by Indian security forces in Punjab, further exacerbated the community’s grievances. These officially sanctioned measures ultimately served to fan the flames of secession and anger despite their apparent goal of putting an end to the insurgency. A deep and ongoing sense of unfairness and disenfranchisement among Sikhs has resulted from the cumulative effect of these events, leading many of them to seek sanctuary and start new lives abroad. As a result of widespread migration, Sikhs have settled mostly in the US, Canada, and the UK, where they have persisted in supporting Khalistan.
In today’s globally interconnected society, transnational repression has become a more common tactic used by regimes to target dissidents and minorities by extending their coercive reach across national borders. This disgusting strategy is used against a variety of people, including political activists, journalists, human rights advocates, and members of racial or religious minorities.
Horrible crimes including targeted assassinations, kidnappings, and revenge against family members are among the arsenal of transnational repression. The gravity of this problem is highlighted by recent charges made against India. The Indian government was charged in an indictment released by the US Department of Justice in November 2023 with masterminding a plot to kill a Sikh activist on American soil. This concerning revelation highlights the lengths states will go to to stifle opposition and impose their will on the world stage.
Communities have the right to self-determination under international human rights law, which includes the ability to choose their political status and to seek their own economic, social, and cultural advancement.
All support for Khalistan is considered terrorism, and India has criminalized the Sikhs’ aspiration for self-determination. Khalistan’s domestic movements, which were particularly strong in the 1980s and 1990s, have been weakened by this harsh stance. As such, the movement has mostly turned its attention to the diaspora, resulting in the formation of “Khalistan Referendums” outside, but non-binding nonetheless. Indian intelligence agents are said to have gone to great pains to stifle this movement, as seen by the 2023 killing of Canadian Sikh Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was actively planning such a referendum.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political career is closely related to this persecution. Since taking office in 2014, there has been a noticeable decline in democratic norms under Modi’s administration. Repression of nonviolent protests, persecution of religious minorities, restrictions on journalistic freedom, and regular use of internet blackouts as a control tactic have all occurred. The following quote from Modi during a 2024 rally serves as an example of an utter violation of all norms and international obligations: “Today, even India’s enemies know this New India comes into your home to kill you.” Such pronouncements glaringly demonstrate the government’s willingness to partake in extralegal international actions.
On November 29, 2023, undercover DEA officers verified an indictment against an Indian arms and drug trafficker who was organizing Sikh American assassination plots. Further investigations have revealed higher-level collusion in these operations including Indian intelligence agents, especially from RAW.
December 2023 saw the release of leaked documents from India’s Ministry of External Affairs that included plans for disinformation campaigns and covert operations meant to weaken Sikh diaspora organizations. This data highlights India’s growing reliance on overseas repression to further its policy objectives, which raises grave concerns about state-sponsored terrorism and violations of human rights around the world. The international community needs to address these problems head-on and demand justice and accountability for people who are the targets of such nefarious activities. With its divisive and confrontational approach, the rise of Hindutva demands a concerted regional and global reaction to lessen its dreadful impacts on global peace and security. The need for international cooperation is essential to tackling the complex and dangerous issues raised by Hindutva’s globalization.
Youm-e-Istehsaal
By: Yasir Khan | July 30, 2024
As the date for Youm-e-Istehsaal approaches, it is essential to highlight the significance of this day and the atrocities committed by Indian forces in Kashmir.
Every year, Pakistan observes August 5 as a reaction to the Revocation of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. On this day in 2019, the Indian government under Narendra Modi had scrapped the Indian constitution’s Article 370, which guaranteed a special status to the region of occupied Kashmir.
This commemorative day is a powerful reminder of the ongoing struggle for freedom and justice in the region. With a focus on Indian aggression in Kashmir, we must continue to raise our voices, forcing the world to acknowledge the brutalities faced by the Kashmiri people for decades on end and the resilience they are still showing in the face of adversity.
Although India has over the years tried to downplay its illegal annexation of Jammu and Kashmir, confusing the international community with self-touted claims of peace and prosperity in the valley, Pakistan has, to date, stayed true to its promise to keep reminding about the injustice and oppression faced by the Kashmiri people at the hands of the Indian government. Youm-e-Istehsaal is a similar commemoration to express solidarity with the people of Kashmir and reaffirm support for their right to self-determination.
The world cannot turn a blind eye to the suffering of the Kashmiri people
The Indian government’s actions in Kashmir have been marked by widespread human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, torture, extrajudicial killings, and the use of pellet guns against unarmed civilians.
The region has been under a strict military lockdown for years, with communication blackouts and restrictions on movement imposed on the local population. These oppressive measures are a clear violation of international law and human rights standards but call it a tragic consequence of the Indian diaspora or their covert diplomacy, many in the civilised world prefer to buy their concocted tales of being the largest democracy instead. New Delhi continues to keep a massive military presence in the disputed region and thousands of Kashmiris have been held in detention in the world’s largest open-air prison.
Despite facing immense challenges, the people of Kashmir have shown remarkable resilience and determination in their struggle for freedom.
They continue to resist occupation and demand their right to self-determination. Youm-e-Istehsaal is a day for the Kashmiri people to come together and demonstrate their strength and unity in the face of adversity.
The international community must play a proactive role in addressing the human rights abuses in Kashmir. The United Nations and other global bodies must hold India accountable for its actions in the region and work towards a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir conflict. The world cannot turn a blind eye to the suffering of the Kashmiri people and must take concrete steps to ensure their rights are protected.
Every year, we hope that by the time next August comes around, Pakistan will be celebrating the much-awaited arrival of self-independence with its Kashmiri brothers and sisters. But before seeing them breathe in freedom and enjoy their due rights, it is essential to not back down from this fight and stand in solidarity with them. The Indian atrocities in Kashmir cannot be ignored, and the international community must work towards justice and peace in the region.
CPEC 2.0: Expanding Horizons
By: Dr Imran Khalid | July 30, 2024
This month marks a significant milestone as Pakistan and China celebrate the 11th anniversary of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a cornerstone of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Over the past decade, this partnership has witnessed a remarkable surge in China’s dedication to enhancing Pakistan’s economic landscape, solidifying a robust bond between the two nations. China has emerged as Pakistan’s foremost benefactor, providing substantial investments, loans, and grants that have been crucial in driving Pakistan’s growth.
Since its inception on July 5, 2013, when the MoU was signed, CPEC has represented a transformative journey for both countries. The initiative has not only strengthened connectivity but has also fostered long-term collaboration. China’s investment has rejuvenated Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy, and production sectors, especially at a time when traditional international donors were reluctant to engage.
The corridor has become a symbol of mutual prosperity and enduring camaraderie, demonstrating China’s strategic commitment to its friend. Its impact on Pakistan’s economic development and the deepening of Sino-Pakistani ties continue to highlight the strategic significance of this enduring partnership.
CPEC represents a visionary commitment that has significantly shaped the trajectory of Pakistan’s economic landscape. Launched with an ambitious plan, CPEC united Pakistan and China in their pursuit of shared prosperity, connectivity, and enduring friendship. China’s pledge of $60 billion in investments aimed at revitalizing Pakistan’s infrastructure, energy, and production sectors arrived at a critical juncture when traditional international donors were hesitant and Pakistan’s economy faced severe challenges.
CPEC’s potential impact on Pakistan is often likened to the Marshall Plan, which transformed post-war Europe. By fostering substantial economic growth, CPEC was projected to create over 2.3 million jobs between 2015 and 2030 and contribute an additional 2.0 to 2.5 percentage points to Pakistan’s annual economic growth rate. This corridor is not merely an investment but a strategic catalyst poised to revitalize Pakistan’s economy. Its role in providing a lifeline at a time of economic vulnerability underscores the corridor’s transformative power and highlights the deepening Sino-Pakistani partnership.
Over the past 11 years, China’s investment of over $25.4 billion in Pakistan has profoundly impacted key sectors such as transport, energy, and infrastructure, all central to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). This significant commitment reflects Beijing’s focus on improving connectivity and promoting economic growth. Beyond direct investments, China’s support includes a substantial 30 billion Chinese yuan in loans and the creation of a currency swap arrangement.
This strategic partnership has been a crucial lifeline for Pakistan, shielding its financial stability and strengthening its debt management capabilities. The assistance has not only eased the pressure of debt repayments but also allowed Pakistan to diversify its trade practices, decreasing its dependence on the dollar and improving its foreign exchange reserves. The impact of this support highlights the deepening economic ties between the two nations and underscores China’s role in bolstering Pakistan’s economic resilience.
CPEC is reshaping Pakistan’s economic landscape with its extensive network of roadways linking rural and urban areas. A pivotal element of this initiative is the strategic placement of nine Special Economic Zones (SEZs) along these critical routes, designed to attract substantial investment and drive economic growth. Four of these SEZs are nearing operational status, marking a significant milestone in the project’s development. The remaining five SEZs are expected to become fully functional by 2030.
This ambitious timeline underscores the transformative potential of CPEC, signaling a potential overhaul of Pakistan’s economic environment. The SEZs are more than just industrial hubs; they represent a strategic vision to stimulate investment, foster industrialization, and catalyze regional development. By harnessing the power of these economic zones, Pakistan aims to leverage its position within the CPEC framework to unlock new opportunities and drive sustained economic advancement. As the SEZs come online, they promise to be pivotal in reshaping the economic future of Pakistan, cementing CPEC’s role as a game-changer in regional development.
This mega project exemplifies a forward-thinking approach to energy infrastructure, integrating a broad spectrum of power projects. From coal and hydro to solar and wind power plants, CPEC has made significant strides in expanding Pakistan’s power generation capacity. This comprehensive energy strategy not only addresses the immediate demands but also sets the stage for a more sustainable and environmentally conscious future.
By diversifying its energy sources, CPEC is transforming Pakistan into an energy-surplus nation, a crucial development for a country long plagued by power shortages. This transformation is more than just a technical upgrade; it represents a strategic shift that fosters industrial growth and enhances economic stability. The promise of reliable and diversified energy sources is proving to be a magnet for foreign investment, highlighting CPEC’s role in reshaping Pakistan’s economic landscape.
It has significantly impacted Pakistan’s growing blue economy, with Gwadar port standing out as a central success. Once a modest vision, Gwadar has transformed into a thriving maritime hub, actively facilitating global trade and commerce. This evolution highlights the port’s critical role in Pakistan’s economic strategy and underscores the tangible benefits of CPEC for both nations. Initially designed to connect Gwadar Port with China’s Xinjiang region, CPEC has expanded into a comprehensive initiative that includes energy projects, infrastructure development, and industrial collaboration.
The development of nine Special Economic Zones (SEZs), particularly the burgeoning Gwadar Free Economic Zone, is reshaping the economic landscape, positioning CPEC as a leading investment hub in the region. The transformation of the Gwadar Port into a fully operational trade centre is a testament to CPEC’s ambitious scope and its potential to drive significant economic growth. This expansion reflects a broader vision, where infrastructure improvements and strategic investments not only elevate Pakistan’s economic standing but also reinforce the bilateral ties between China and Pakistan.
During Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent visit to China, the announcement of CPEC’s second phase, often referred to as CPEC 2.0, marked a significant expansion of the initiative. This new phase broadens the project’s scope beyond its original focus, incorporating agriculture and information technology into its ambit. By venturing into these sectors, CPEC 2.0 aims to enhance economic collaboration and technological integration, reflecting a strategic evolution in China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative.
This expansion underscores the growing significance of CPEC as a comprehensive framework for fostering bilateral ties and advancing mutual economic interests. As both neighbours embark on the second phase of CPEC, Beijing’s promise of an additional $1 billion grant to Pakistan underscores a deepening partnership rooted in shared prosperity. Notably, over 30,000 Pakistani students are currently benefiting from educational opportunities in China, reflecting the rich cultural and academic exchange between the countries.
Looking ahead, the second phase of CPEC plans to complete 63 new projects, with an estimated value of $35 billion by 2030. This ambitious expansion highlights a mutual commitment to not only enhancing regional connectivity but also to fostering economic integration that reaches into Afghanistan and Central Asia.
The future of CPEC promises significant transformation, as both China and Pakistan work together to realize a vision of comprehensive development and cooperation. This evolving partnership is set to redefine economic landscapes and reinforce the strategic importance of their collaboration on a global scale.
Protecting youth from Terrorist’s Organisations
By: Dr Muhammad Khan | July 29, 2024
This is very unfortunate that, terrorists’ organizations are hunting the youth of Pakistan for their nefarious and inhuman terrorist activities. The main reason for this youth recruitment is the rampant unemployment in the country. Indeed, owing to economic crises in Pakistan, there are no worthwhile jobs for the youth which constitute over 65% of Pakistani population. Indeed, poverty and socio-economic vulnerabilities of the deprived communities compel their youth for exploitation at the hands of terrorist organizations. Nevertheless, a large number of the youth are being indoctrinated on the basis of their religious belief system to become part of terrorism. Indeed, terrorist organizations mislead the youth, especially the youth of Madaris and illiterate youth who have nothing to do. In return of their services this youth lot is paid monthly stipends. In some of the cases, poor parents are given money to spare their young children for the militancy and terrorism. Still there is a class of the youth which are being recruited on the basis of ethnicity. This rising trend is very dangerous for the state and society of Pakistan.
Indeed, terrorist organizations are being funded by anti-Pakistan forces, mainly the spying networks of some major powers alongside the Indian RAW on Afghan soil. These terrorists’ organizations very cunningly entice youth for their sinister designs; violating the Islamic injunctions, social values and cultural norms. Indeed, they betray the youth under the religious motivation, psychologically brainwash them and then train them to undertake various terrorists activities including suicide bombing. In the process, terrorist organizations effectively target young, educated and passionate youth who like internet, social media platforms and online games. This youth is at times mistreated at training camps including their sexual abuse by these terrorists.
In last two years, there has been resurgence of terrorism and terrorists in Pakistan; mainly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan provinces. This terrorism has its breeding sites in neighboring Afghanistan. Terrorism increased in Pakistan ever since August 2021, since the establishment of Interim Government of Taliban in Afghanistan. Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Tehreek-i-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), separatist’sinsurgents from Balochistanand elements from Islamic State of Khorasan (Daesh) are involved in these deadly attacks. Indeed, terrorism and militancy are anti-thesis of Islam and Interim Afghan Government under Taliban considered itself as the follower of Islam. This Holy religion is all about peace, respect and love for the human beings. In Pakistan, the main terrorist outfit is TTP which claims to be the Muslim organization having linkages with Afghan Taliban.
This terrorist outfit has damaged the image of Pakistan, Islam and Muslims ever since it formally started its terrorism in various parts of Pakistan in 2007. It was banned and declared outlawed terrorist organization by the Government of Pakistan. There are four prominent features of this terrorist organization: a) it uses Islam as its philosophy and ideology to attract and conceal its evil designs and the hidden motives, b) it is brutal and inhuman in its actions and behaviour which goes against the ideology of Islam, c) it is heavily funded from across the frontiers with strong control of regional and international spying networks and d) it is totally against the state, society and constitution of Pakistan. The terrorists of this banned organization undertake their terrorist acts while using highly sophisticated weaponry and war munitions which include modern surveillance system and night vision goggles. This means that they are being used against Islam, Muslims and Pakistan by the forces which are against all three in essence and strategy.
TTP and other militant organizations are operating from Afghan soil. As reported, after Taliban took over Afghan Government, TTP, Daesh and Baloch separatists gained control over the huge weapon and ammunition left by NATO and U.S forces. These militant organizations are using this modern weaponry against Pakistan in their acts of terrorism along Pak-Afghan border, in former FATA areas and in the province of Balochistan. Pakistan has repeatedly asked Interim Afghan Government (IAG) for stoppage of militant attacks using Afghan soil. In fact, Pakistan firmly believes that, if IAG take decisive steps to control TTP and other anti-Pakistan militant organizations, there will be no terrorism in Pakistan.
Terrorism against Pakistan is a well-conceived international conspiracy to declare it as a failed state. The international forces and power centers are eying at the pivotal geopolitical location of Pakistan besides its nuclearprogramme and the strong and professional Military. Through political destabilization and economic crises, these forces tend to undermine the state’s sovereignty and independence. The people of Pakistan must be aware about the hidden designs of the rival forces of Pakistan. The armed forces are being defamed for creating a clash between masses and men in uniform.
Since the youth of Pakistan is the major target of these terrorists’ organizations, therefore, State and society has an intimate responsibility to save them from getting into the terrorist’s trap. There is a need of initiating a national social campaign to save our children (the future of Pakistan) from getting into the hands of terrorist’s organizations. These organizations use the youth as explosive and weapon for the nefarious designs of the enemies of Pakistan. At the level of Government, there is a need to create job opportunities for the unemployed youth by creating and increasing the job markets and various entrepreneurs. By creating job opportunities, youth will not be attracted and lured-in by terrorist’s organizations. Let’s defeat the militancy and terrorism from Pakistan by positively guiding our youth towards constructive activities. In this we can defeat terrorism, save our youth and restore peace in Pakistan.
Crisis of Education
By:Tariq Aqil | July 29, 2024
“Education is not preparation for life, education is life itself.” —John Dewey.
Deep down, every good teacher knows the impact and importance of education. It isn’t just about learning reading, writing and arithmetic at school. Instead, formal education is about gaining the knowledge and the skills needed to become a better person and create a better society to live in. A proper education sets people up to grow personally, professionally, and socially. It can awaken joy, curiosity and a deep desire to solve problems and help others. Plus, teaching a student can inspire them to pursue leadership roles and positively impact those around them. One of the other many benefits of education is that it can broaden a student’s horizons, helping them understand more about other cultures and corners of the world beyond the school door.
Unfortunately today Pakistan today is in the throes of a massive crisis of education. About 26 million children are out of school, the state education system isin dire straits and the private education system is so expensive that it is now beyond the reach of the common man. For the first time in our turbulent history the Prime Minister of Pakistan has declared a National Education Emergency on 8th May 2024.
The Federal Ministry of Education has been tasked with revamping planning, curriculum, financing and implementation of the new policies to breathe life into the education system. The Govt. of the day is faced with a monumental task mainly because of the phenomenal increase in population reaching almost 7 million new babies born every year who enter the world with the hope that the state will provide the necessary education facilities for them to grow up to be responsible citizens of the country equipped with the skills to earn a living.
The national education budget for the year 2024-25 has been increased to 1.9 % from 1.5 % of last year this is a very happy move but is it sufficient to combat the ugly state of our education system?And the Govt. is now committed to raise the GDP allocations to 4% by the year 2029 which is not too far in the future.
Our education system relies heavily on rote learning, and students who are good at memorization easily obtain good marks in high school board exams at the matric and intermediate levels. However most fail to recall the concepts learned in the previous classes. Both parents and teachers pay no attention to critical thinking skills. Fortunately the Prime Minister has now has announced an “Education Emergency” across Pakistan to enroll approximately 26 million children who are currently out of school, aiming to transform Pakistan into one of the most educated countries in the world. Just announcements are not enough the need of the hour is to address the woeful lack of good schools and colleges in the country which is the main and foremost educational problem in Pakistan.
With more than 40% of the people living below the poverty line poverty too is a serious education problem. People living hand to mouth simply do not have the financial means to invest in education for their offspring. The govt. has to find ways and means to make education affordable for every citizen. Education emergency should focus on the availability of free education for all on the pattern of many welfare states in the world. Article 25A of the 1973 constitution clearly states “Right To Education: the state shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of five to sixteen years in such manner as may be determined by law” This clause was added to the basic rights section of the constitution in 2010. In 2014 that is after 14 years the PM is declaring an emergency to do what has been promised as a basic right for all children of the country.
This attitude has been called “criminal negligence” by the Prime Minister himself. Emergency isa serious and dangerous situation and it is definitely more than serious in the country and all previous governments during the past 76 years are responsible for his criminal neglect of education in the country.
According to the accepted and prevalent standards Govt. should spend at least four percent of the GDP on education but ironically Pakistan Govt. does not spend more than 1.7% on education.
If any education emergency is meant to bring about a change it is imperative that the expenditure on education must be doubled immediately and the govt. should make every effort to make education free for all at least up to high school levels.Every education policy formulated since 1947 has aspired to provide free education but so far not a single policy has been able to deliver the promised aspirations laid down in education policies or as promised by the constitution. The education emergency has been announced with the usual fanfare but nothing has been said about the methods to be adopted for addressing the situation or what policy changes will be implemented, when the country will increase the investments in education and when the nation will see some serious and practical steps for any meaningful change in the education sector of the country. How will the education emergency become reality? Who will be monitoring the implementation of a new policy and take us towards access to quality and free education for all children. One can only hope and pray that this announcement of the education emergency is not just a political gimmick but will be implemented in latter and spirit.
This country is in immediate need of more and better schools, teachers and teaching aids. Teaching skills have to be improved and the content knowledge of teachers enhanced. Above all we need the political will and immediate attention of the political elite to combat the dangers of a collapsing education system.
Safeguarding Diplomacy
By: Amna Hashmi | July 29, 2024
The recent attack on the Pakistani consulate in Frankfurt has reignited the debate over the balance between diplomatic security and accessibility. On July 20, 2024, a group of men allegedly dressed in Afghanistan flags stormed the consulate, ransacked the compound, and removed the Pakistan flag. Fortunately, there were no losses, but the situation revealed a number of critical threats and underscored the ongoing problem of safeguarding diplomatic premises and maintaining the mission’s activities.
Several similar attacks on diplomatic missions have highlighted the global nature of these security challenges. In 2012, the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya, was attacked, resulting in the deaths of four Americans, including Ambassador J Christopher Stevens. This incident underscored the vulnerabilities of diplomatic missions in conflict zones.
Diplomatic missions operate with a dual mandate: they must deliver services to the citizens and also perform diplomatic functions; at the same time they have to protect their facilities and people. Some of the measures that are used to enhance security of the diplomatic missions are fences and barricades, surveillance cameras, and cooperation with the local police. However, the Frankfurt attack showed that these measures were insufficient. As per the Overseas Security Advisory Council report of 2023, though 85% of the diplomatic missions have strengthened their security measures in the last few years, such incidents are still a reality. The fact is that the threats are constantly evolving and therefore, the security strategies have to be constantly reviewed and adjusted.
Security and accessibility are two factors that are not easily compromised since they are always on a delicate scale. Diplomatic missions must be open and accessible to be able to perform diplomatic and consular functions properly. Overemphasising security can lead to the restriction of people’s access, the obstruction of diplomacy, and the weakening of people’s interest. On the other hand, inadequate security can expose missions to attacks, thus posing serious risks to human lives of the personnel and other people who may be in the mission at any given time. It is a delicate balance that must be achieved through a proper security plan that will not hinder the functioning of the mission.
The flow of intelligence between the host countries and the diplomatic missions plays a critical role in threat identification and management. In the case of Frankfurt, the actions of the attackers imply that there could be a breakdown in intelligence or communication, calling for better cooperation between local and international intelligence services.
The protection of diplomatic missions is governed by international norms that include the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. However, the usefulness of these protocols is only as good as their implementation and modification over time due to emerging security threats. The attack in Frankfurt has forced Pakistan to appeal to Germany to honour these conventions. This event is a wakeup call for states to follow and enhance international security measures to safeguard diplomats across the globe.
The social aspect of such attacks is also severe because it demoralises consulate staff and scares away visitors. The consequences for international relations and diplomacy are also significant because attacks on diplomatic missions affect bilateral relations and diplomatic processes. Thus, increasing the level of security for diplomats is not only about the lives of people but also about the credibility of diplomatic processes.
The attack on the Pakistani consulate in Frankfurt serves as a stark reminder of the ongoing security challenges faced by diplomatic missions. By learning from this incident and implementing comprehensive security measures, the international community can work towards preventing future attacks and ensuring the safety of diplomats worldwide. Balancing security with accessibility remains a critical task, requiring continuous effort and cooperation at all levels.
Searching for Foreign Policy
By: Najam us Saqib | July 29, 2024
In an upscale restaurant in Islamabad, the topic of today’s roundtable discussion was the challenges of Pakistan’s foreign policy. The selected experts in the field were eager to share their valuable ideas on the subject. The ambiance was simply ebullient. With a winsome smile on his face, the host broke the ice by welcoming the esteemed gathering.
Host: Chatham House rules apply. No recordings. No cameras. Allow me to begin by acknowledging a simple fact. Entangled in serious internal issues, including those relating to security, politics, and economics, the country does not seem to have time to evaluate its foreign policy. Hence, a plethora of issues needs to be addressed. My request is to avoid stating the obvious. Secondly, the recommendations put forward must be doable and practical. No rhetorical statements, please. Yes, Ma’am, let’s begin the discussion with you.
Official Expert: Pakistan is following a foreign policy of friendship and cordiality with all countries of the world except Israel and Armenia. Taking inspiration from the Quaid’s guidelines, it’s a policy of peace within and peace without. Our geo-strategic importance forces us to adopt a policy based on mutual respect with a focus on economic diplomacy. Geography is our biggest challenge. Our progress is hindered by our friends on both the eastern and western borders. The government is in the process of reviving the National Security Policy, in which a whole chapter will be allocated to foreign policy.
Voice: I think you should have peace within first before embarking on the difficult journey of having peace without.
Think Tank: Friendship for peace and not war should be our motto. Staying away from the US, getting closer to China, and countering terrorism are the most important dimensions of our foreign policy. India should be left alone to its own devices. Pakistan has learned its lessons. In case there is another 9/11, we will never believe in any promises. Our 186th publication is placed before you. This issue contains some recommendations for the government as well. We hope these recommendations will be given due consideration when the government prepares the new National Security Policy.
Voice: Did anyone even read your previous 185 publications, let alone paying any heed to the recommendations put forward therein?
China Expert: China is a superpower without a shred of doubt. However, it strictly believes in a multipolar world seen through the lens of contrasts. Beijing feels that in an unequal world, a few rich countries will always have the final say, leaving most countries struggling to find their place and voice their opinions, let alone join the deliberations on the future of the international community. The West is creating all sorts of hurdles in China’s way to progress. Pakistan can play its due role in bringing Washington and Beijing to the negotiating table, as it did in 1972. That would help Islamabad create a balance in its policies towards the US and China.
Voice: Firstly, it was not 1972. It was 1971. Secondly, this is the age of Artificial Intelligence, Sir. They don’t need any mediator to talk to each other or sort out issues. In any case, you should put your own house in order. The question is: did your PM receive that eagerly awaited phone call from Washington? I assure you, Sir, even on his way out, Biden will not call your PM. Mediation between China and the US?
UN Expert: No comments.
US Expert: The US foreign policy acknowledges South Asia’s importance and believes in expanding freedom for all and promoting economic prosperity and peace. Washington feels that democracy has taken root in Pakistan but has proven elusive. It also acknowledges the danger that two nuclear-armed countries pose if they go to war. The US will allocate $101 million for Pakistan to strengthen democracy, fight terrorism, and stabilize the economy. Islamabad needs to remove Washington’s misgivings to stay close to the superpower. Let’s hope Kamala Harris wins.
Voice: It does not make any difference who the President of the United States will be. You will be viewed and treated the same way. The US will do what the US has been doing. Do they even care what your government thinks about America?
South Asian Expert: Pakistan must not abandon its efforts to normalize relations with India. In international relations, emotions have no role to play. Let us postpone Kashmir and focus on commencing trade. Modi’s anger is temporary. On Afghanistan, our policy should focus on mending ways with Kabul rather than offending the Taliban.
Voice: You should rescind your Pakistani passport and get naturalized either in India or Afghanistan. Let us find our ‘relevance’ to India ourselves. Let us rue our mistakes made in helping Afghanistan and lick our wounds ourselves. No compromise on matters of our vital national interests.
Real Expert: The biggest challenge to our foreign policy is the foreign policy itself. People think a country can have a strong foreign policy without being economically sound. This misperception makes matters even more complicated. The table may note that a country’s foreign policy is a depiction of its internal economic, political, and societal situation at a given time. How could you make independent decisions when the country is embroiled in a vicious debt trap? Ground realities must be taken into consideration.
Voice: Finally, someone is talking sense.
South Asian Expert: I disagree. Kashmir and the Taliban cannot wait for us to stabilize the economy first. These are pressing issues requiring immediate actions.
Real Expert: Eliminate corruption; let the people have a government of their choice; get rid of kakistocracy; and stabilize the economy. Your hostile neighbors will be forced to respect you as a nation.
Voice: Listen to him carefully. He has just spelled out the entire algorithm of foreign policy in just one sentence.
Frozen Ties
By: Maleeha Lodhi | July 29, 2024
PROSPECTS for diplomatic engagement between India and Pakistan remain bleak. Any expectation that a multilateral summit that Islamabad will host in October will help to melt the ice between Pakistan and India seems premature in view of the persisting diplomatic stalemate, which neither side has sought to overcome.
As rotational chair of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), Pakistan will convene the heads of government summit in around three months’ time. As part of the seven-member regional grouping, India has of course been invited. While it is too early to say whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate, indications so far are that it is highly unlikely. There has been no development to suggest that either side sees this as an opportunity for bilateral re-engagement. Quite the opposite.
Sports is always a useful barometer to assess if a diplomatic thaw is on the anvil as it both reflects a softening in position and paves the way for an easing of tensions. But that front too offers little grounds for optimism. Although cricket diplomacy has played a part in the past to bring the two countries closer, this is no longer the case.
Pakistan is to host the ICC Champions Trophy between February and March 2025. The Indian media is already reporting, citing official sources, that due to “strained relations” between the two neighbours, the Indian cricket team will not travel to Pakistan. Instead, the Indian cricket board plans to ask ICC for India’s matches to be played in Dubai or Sri Lanka. For some years now, the Modi government has barred its cricket team from playing in Pakistan. Even though Pakistan’s team played in India in an international tournament in late 2023, the Indian team did not come to Pakistan for the Asia Cup, hosted by Pakistan last September.
More importantly, exchanges between the two countries after the Indian elections have been anything but encouraging. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s congratulatory message to Modi on his re-election elicited a terse response. The reply was wrapped in ‘security’ language expressing Modi’s commitment to “the security and safety” of Indian citizens. Although PML-N president Nawaz Sharif’s message of felicitation to Modi was cast in conciliatory terms, it elicited a similar, terse response with emphasis on security. Moreover, Pakistan was excluded from the list of regional leaders invited to Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. In 2014, Nawaz Sharif had attended Modi’s first inauguration.
But it was Modi’s accusations against Pakistan last week that provided the clearest indicator of his stance. In a speech on the anniversary of the Kargil conflict, he said: “Pakistan has not learned anything from its history. It is trying to keep itself relevant with the help of terrorism and proxy war.” He also called Pakistan “masters of terror”. Earlier, Indian foreign minister S. Jaishankar used the same old tired rhetoric in his first statement on assuming charge. Spelling out what future engagement with Islamabad would involve, he said: “We would want to find a solution to the issue of years-old cross-border terrorism.”
Prospects are bleak for resumption of any formal dialogue between Pakistan and India.
A verbal clash between the foreign ministries of the two countries on occupied Kashmir followed in the wake of PM Sharif’s China visit in June. The Pakistan-China joint statement of June 8 had referred to the need to resolve all outstanding disputes in South Asia with the Chinese side reiterating its principled stand that “the Jammu and Kashmir dispute … should be peacefully resolved in accordance with the UN Charter, relevant UN Security Council resolutions and bilateral agreements”.
This prompted the Indian external affairs ministry spokesman to criticise the reference claiming it was “unwarranted” and that “the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir and Union territory of Ladakh have been, are and will always remain integral and inalienable parts of India”. Islamabad dismissed these remarks and reiterated that Kashmir was an internationally recognised disputed territory and Indian claims were “unfounded”.
It seems the Modi government’s preference is to maintain a strategic freeze on relations with Pakistan. It has shown no interest in resuming dialogue with Islamabad, apparently concluding that this hurts Pakistan, not India. Pakistan-bashing by BJP leaders during the election campaign reflected their animus towards Pakistan. Modi’s own statements were extremely provocative. At one point, he compared his muscular response to cross-border terrorism with the infirm approach of his predecessors, saying he will continue to “hit terrorists in their homes”. His reference was to the Indian airstrikes he ordered on Balakot in February 2019 after a terrorist attack in Pulwama in occupied Kashmir. This had led to a dangerous confrontation between the nuclear neighbours.
In recent weeks, there has been a virtual chorus in the Indian media about “foreign infiltrators” in J&K in the wake of a series of attacks on Indian security forces in Jammu. Several newspapers have referred to so-called “shadow militant outfits” linked to Pakistani militant groups that are carrying out a “proxy war”, with Jammu as the new theatre of operations. The Hindu called it the “highest recorded militant footprint” in Jammu since 2005. This seems an orchestrated effort to externalise the problem in order to shield the government from blame for the deteriorating security situation. It is also designed to keep Pakistan under pressure. All this makes any chances of resumption of talks between India and Pakistan rather remote.
India’s obdurate refusal to discuss the Kashmir dispute poses a major challenge for Pakistan. Even if talks were to resume down the road it would be impossible for Islamabad to have a formal dialogue minus Kashmir. Indeed, a ‘peace’ process which doesn’t include Kashmir will not go anywhere.
This is not a hard-line view but the dictate of law, principle and reality. As for reviving trade between the two countries this too presents challenges. While a constituency for expanding bilateral trade exists on both sides, Delhi has thus far, shown no interest in reviving economic ties. India imposed 200 per cent tariff on Pakistani imports following the Pulwama incident. Trade was formally suspended by Islamabad after India’s illegal annexation of Jammu and Kashmir on Aug 5, 2019. Since then, relations have been in deep freeze. In view of latest developments, there seems to be little prospect of the ice melting between the two countries.
Deception’s rise: Spread of fake news in Pakistan
By: Dr Zafar Khan Safdar | July 27, 2024
WORDS play a critical role in shaping our understanding of information. Whether it is misinformation, fake news, disinformation or conspiracy theories, each term reflects different ways through which misleading information can deceive us, whether by intention or slipup. In an era dominated by digital communication, the rise of fake news and social media warfare has posed significant challenges to societies worldwide. A recent study conducted by MIT scholars revealed that many individuals who share false news stories online do so inadvertently and that their sharing behaviour can be influenced by reminders about accuracy. The presence of such reminders was found to widen the gap between the sharing rates of true news stories versus false ones. The study also identified common reasons behind the sharing of false information. Approximately half of those who shared the false news stories cited inattention due to the fast-paced nature of social media. Another third shared misinformation because they mistakenly believed it to be true, while a smaller proportion knowingly shared false headlines.
Pakistan, with its rapidly growing internet penetration and active social media structure, is not immune to these challenges. The proliferation of misinformation, disinformation and mal-information on platforms like Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp has not only shaped public opinion but also influenced political narratives, societal cohesion and national security. Fake news encompasses a spectrum of false information deliberately created, manipulated and disseminated to deceive readers. It includes misinformation (unintentional dissemination of false information), disinformation (deliberate spreading of false information) and mal-information (truthful information shared to cause harm or public damage). In Pakistan, fake news often takes the form of manipulated images, misleading headlines and fabricated stories aimed at misleading the public for political, social, or economic gain. The era of social media has amplified these issues, allowing misinformation to spread rapidly and widely among the population. Fake news, including falsified election results, doctored images and fabricated narratives, exacerbates political divisions by promoting partisan narratives and undermining trust in institutions. Politically motivated misinformation campaigns can manipulate voter behaviour and undermine democratic processes, while polarization hampers constructive dialogue and national unity.
Pakistan has witnessed a significant increase in internet and social media usage, driven by affordable smart phones and data plans. Platforms like Facebook, WhatsApp and Twitter are widely accessed for news consumption, social networking and political discourse. As of March 2024, 65% of Pakistanis utilize social media, highlighting the significant influence it has on public opinion and political debate in the country. Social media offers a platform for citizen journalism, activism and public engagement, but its potential positive impacts are undermined by the unchecked spread of misinformation, often used by political parties, interest groups and other non-state actors. Pakistan’s social media regulation, governed by PTA, has faced criticism for inadequacy and politicization. The Punjab government’s recent efforts to introduce stricter regulations, including measures against fake news, have sparked debates on freedom of expression and responsible online behaviour.
False information can significantly impact economic growth, investor confidence and consumer behaviour, especially in fragile economies like Pakistan. Bots, both domestically and internationally, can manipulate online discourse, skew public perception and artificially increase the reach of misinformation campaigns. This poses risks to growth and development in fragile economies like Pakistan. Organized influence campaigns, funded by domestic or foreign actors, strategically deploy fake news to achieve political or strategic objectives. These campaigns exploit societal fault lines, exploit cultural sensitivities and exploit historical grievances to undermine stability and influence public opinion. Pakistan is facing external threats from foreign interference through disinformation campaigns, exploiting social media platforms to spread divisive content, influence public opinion and exacerbate tensions between the country and its neighbours or allies.
Educational programs and public awareness campaigns are essential in promoting media literacy and critical thinking skills among citizens. Advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) offer promising tools to detect and mitigate fake news. AI-powered algorithms can analyse content patterns, identify misinformation sources and flag suspicious accounts or trends. Collaboration between tech companies, researchers and government agencies is crucial in developing and deploying effective technological solutions.
Independent journalism and civil society play pivotal roles in combating fake news through fact-checking, investigative reporting and promoting transparency. Journalists and media organizations uphold ethical standards, verify information rigorously and hold accountable those responsible for spreading false information. Support for press freedom and protection of journalists are integral to safeguarding democratic values. Balancing freedom of expression with the need to combat fake news presents legal and ethical dilemmas. Regulatory frameworks must safeguard constitutional rights while curbing malicious online behaviour. Measures to regulate social media platforms should be transparent, accountable and respectful of user privacy and data protection. Cross-border fake news poses challenges that require international cooperation and collaboration. Diplomatic efforts, information sharing agreements and joint initiatives with neighbouring countries and international organizations are essential in countering transnational misinformation threats effectively.
Efforts to combat fake news should not compromise user privacy or infringe upon individual rights. Policies should ensure data protection, user consent for data usage and transparency in platform algorithms. Privacy-conscious approaches are crucial in building trust and enhancing the credibility of measures against fake news. In a nutshell, successfully tackling fake news requires collaboration among various stakeholders, adaptable regulatory approaches and continuous advancements in technology and media literacy. Achieving resilience against misinformation demands long-term dedication, active public engagement and strategies that can flexibly respond to the challenges presented by digital evolution.
Bridging Nations or Breaking Trust?
By: Sarah Ameer | July 27, 2024
The phenomenon of immigration has existed for as long as human history, always driven by pursuit for better economic and educational opportunities.
People moving across borders not only influence their own lives but also impact the host society as well as their own homeland. The diaspora community is considered as an ambassador of its own country and plays a pivotal role in building connections between the nations.
If we talk about our part of the world, the Indian nationals constitute the largest diaspora community in Asia, with over 17.5 million Indians spread all across the globe. According to reports, the United Arab Emirates tops the list of being home to the highest number of overseas Indians while the United States and Saudi Arabia take the 2nd and 3rd ranks respectively.
It would not be wrong to call the diaspora community a double-edged sword. While it contributes to the economy of its home country through remittances and investments and also mobilizes foreign aid in times of crises, it can also, sometimes, hurt the international image of its motherland.
The state-sponsored assassination attempts on foreign land disturb the law and order situation.
Recently, an Indian entrepreneur Rishi Shah, co-founder of an advertising startup, Outcome Health, has been sentenced to seven and a half year prison after being convicted of defrauding investors such as Goldman Sachs, Alphabet and the Pritzker Group venture fund of $1 billion.
Shah and other executives, including another Indian American Shradha Agarwal, were accused of lying to pharmaceutical companies, taking money for ads never placed, and then misrepresenting the health of the company to investors. Earlier this year, another Indian, Jaspal Thiara, was arrested in Canada along with his partner, Jordan Cordeiro, on charges of selling fraudulent tickets of concert and sports events which cost the victims over $100,000.
These cases are reported at a time when India is already in the news because of its transnational repression. An Australian broadcasting corporation, recently, accused India of threatening and spying on Sikh expatriates.
A few weeks earlier, the Canadian government also issued a similar report calling India the second biggest threat to Canada’s democracy. In the not so distant past, the Canadian government called out India for its involvement in the assassination of a pro-Khalistan activist, Hardeep Singh Najjar, while the US government also exposed the Indian assassination plot against a member of a Sikh diaspora community.
These kinds of offenses can have serious implications. The state sponsored assassination attempts on foreign land disturbs the law and order situation thereby bringing the expatriates under increased scrutiny, encroaching on their privacy and liberty.
High profile criminal cases like that of Rishi Shah involving major investors like Goldman Sachs and Alphabet shakes investor confidence in the startup ecosystem and also raises concerns about the investors’ due diligence process, negatively affecting their reputation.
Moreover, it can also lead to increased skepticism towards ventures led by the immigrant entrepreneurs thus stifling innovation and economic growth in the host country. The actions of a few individuals may cause members of the host society to develop negative perception towards the entire diaspora community.
This shift in perception may lead to several social and economic consequences. It may result in decreased space for immigrants in the employment sector, as employers become more reluctant to hire individuals from certain backgrounds. This can lead to social tension, potentially fostering extremist ideologies on both sides – among the marginalized groups feeling discriminated against, and among native communities harboring xenophobic sentiments.
Revitalizing Pakistan
By: Jawad Saleem | July 27, 2024
Pakistan stands at a pivotal moment in its history, grappling with a multitude of economic, political, and social challenges. These issues are deeply interconnected, creating a complex web that requires strategic intervention by all stakeholders, including politicians, bureaucrats, the judiciary, the military, and the media. Understanding the role each has played, and what needs to be corrected, is crucial for the nation’s progress.
Pakistan’s economy has been under significant stress, with key issues including high inflation, fiscal deficits, and mounting debt. The country’s GDP growth has been sluggish, and the COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated economic vulnerabilities. High unemployment rates and underemployment remain persistent problems, affecting millions of households.
Inflation, currently around 11.5 percent, has been a major concern, eroding the purchasing power of ordinary citizens. The fiscal deficit remains high at 7.1 percent of GDP, limiting the government’s ability to invest in critical infrastructure and social services. Managing public debt, which stands at 87.2 percent of GDP, and ensuring sustainable economic policies are imperative.
Pakistan’s external debt obligations are around $116 billion, putting pressure on foreign reserves. This limits the government’s ability to spend on development projects and social welfare.
The role of politicians, bureaucrats, judiciary, military, and media must be clearly defined and oriented towards national interest.
Political instability has been a hallmark of Pakistan’s history, with frequent changes in government and political unrest. This instability undermines policy continuity and investor confidence.
Pakistan ranks 124th out of 180 countries on the Corruption Perceptions Index. Corruption remains a significant issue, affecting all levels of government and eroding public trust. Efforts to combat corruption have seen mixed results, with many high-profile cases yet to conclude.
Weak governance and lack of accountability in political leadership have hindered effective policy implementation. Strengthening institutions and ensuring accountability are crucial for stable governance.
Social issues such as poverty, education, and healthcare are critical areas needing attention. Despite some progress, Pakistan still faces significant challenges in these sectors.
Approximately 24.3 percent of Pakistan’s population lives below the poverty line. Addressing poverty requires comprehensive social welfare programs and economic opportunities for marginalized communities.
The literacy rate in Pakistan is around 59 percent. The education system suffers from underfunding, poor infrastructure, and a lack of trained teachers. Ensuring access to quality education for all is essential for the country’s development.
Pakistan spends only about 2.6 percent of its GDP on healthcare. The healthcare system is under-resourced and overburdened. Improving healthcare infrastructure and access, especially in rural areas, is vital for public health.
Role of Key Stakeholders
Politicians have a crucial role in shaping policies that address these challenges. However, political patronage and short-termism have often led to ineffective governance. Politicians need to prioritize long-term national interests over short-term political gains.
The bureaucracy is responsible for implementing policies and ensuring effective governance. However, inefficiencies, red tape, and lack of accountability have often hindered their performance. Reforms aimed at enhancing efficiency and accountability within the bureaucracy are necessary.
The judiciary plays a vital role in upholding the rule of law and ensuring justice. However, the judicial system is plagued by delays, backlogs, and questions of impartiality. Ensuring judicial independence and improving the efficiency of the legal system are critical.
The military has historically played a significant role in Pakistan’s politics and governance. Beyond its essential role in national security, the military has contributed significantly to disaster response, infrastructure development, and maintaining internal stability. The disciplined approach and resources of the military have been vital in stabilizing various regions and supporting civil institutions. Continued support of the military in maintaining peace and assisting in national development is crucial.
The media serves as a watchdog and a platform for public discourse. However, it must balance reporting with responsibility. Ensuring factual, unbiased reporting can help foster informed public opinion and hold power to account, thereby contributing to political stability and social cohesion.
Implementing structural economic reforms is crucial for sustainable growth. This includes improving tax collection, managing public debt, and fostering an environment conducive to business and investment.
Ensuring political stability through transparent and fair elections, effective governance, and reducing corruption will help build investor confidence and create a stable environment for economic development.
Investing in social sectors such as education, healthcare, and social welfare programs is essential for human capital development. This requires not just increased funding, but also systemic reforms to improve the quality and accessibility of these services.
Strengthening institutions through reforms that enhance efficiency, transparency, and accountability is critical. This includes reforms in the bureaucracy, judiciary, and political institutions.
Leveraging public-private partnerships can help address infrastructure deficits and improve service delivery in key sectors such as education, healthcare, and transportation.
Civil society organizations play a crucial role in advocating for reforms and holding the government accountable. Engaging civil society in policy formulation and implementation can enhance the effectiveness of governance.
Addressing Pakistan’s economic, political, and social challenges requires a concerted effort from all stakeholders. By implementing comprehensive reforms, fostering political stability, and investing in social development, Pakistan can navigate these challenges and pave the way for a brighter future. The role of politicians, bureaucrats, judiciary, military, and media must be clearly defined and oriented towards national interest to ensure sustainable progress and stability.
Rising Indian Diaspora Crime
By: Javed Iqbal | July 26, 2024
The community living abroad is considered as an ambassador and spokesperson of the entire nation back home. In other words, the overseas community has an important role in the image building of their country. They are supposed to follow the rules & regulations and play their role in the development of the host country. However, their involvement in any kind of illegal act not only creates serious issues for the host country but also tarnishes the image of their motherland.
If we talk about the South Asian region, the Indian community is the largest diaspora living abroad, be it in the United States, Russia or Middle Eastern countries. Stories of Indian citizens’ illegal and criminal activities in different countries often capture the attention of the media. Even neighbouring countries like Nepal and Sri Lanka are not spared and crimes like drug trafficking, customs evasion, fake currency, kidnapping and extortion are reported regularly. Recently, 27 Indian citizens have been charged with different offences, with India becoming the largest group of foreign offenders in Nepal.
It was not long ago that the revelation of an Indian plot to assassinate Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the US shocked the entire world.
Besides this, the story of Jaspal Thapry, alias Rajinder Pal Singh’s involvement in human smuggling and money laundering across the U.S-Canada border also remained in the headlines of the media. He was a key member of a smuggling ring that used ride-share services and rental vehicles to transport individuals from Canada to various United States destinations, charging up to $11,000 per person. Thapry’s criminal activities also included falsifying documents and using the Hawala system to launder money. He was also reported to be involved in a $100,000 ticket scam in Canada. Thapry and his accomplice, Jordan Cordeiro, were charged with defrauding people by selling fake tickets for concerts and sporting events in Greater Toronto.
It was not long ago that the revelation of an Indian plot to assassinate Sikh leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun in the United States shocked the entire world. This, coupled with the diplomatic row between India and Canada over the killing of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, has further exposed India’s involvement in transnational assassination plots. These incidents have not only heightened concerns about India’s role in transnational crime but also led to the increased scrutiny of Indian citizens’ involvement in international criminal activities.
The increasing trend of Indian citizens’ involvement in negative activities has been observed for quite some time. This development has posed serious challenges to Western countries’ democracies as well as the entire world wherever Indians are living. Besides this, the huge influx of Indian migrants in Western countries has shrunk employment opportunities for the local population.
Source: Daily Times
Note: Shafaqna do not endorse the views expressed in the article
AfPak – Ultimate Rivals
By: Nawazish Ali | July 26, 2024
Throughout its seventy-year history, Pakistan has faced challenges in managing its strategic relationships effectively with major global powers, regional rivals, and non-state actors. The occasionally strained relationship between the United States and Pakistan is credited to various factors stemming from their extended involvement in Afghanistan since 1970s.
During the Soviet-Afghan War, both supported the Afghan mujahedeen operating through Pakistan. Following the Soviet withdrawal, the US disengaged from the region, leaving Pakistan to grapple with the aftermath. Subsequently, after the tragic events of 9/11, the US exerted pressure on Pakistan to join the ‘global war on terror’ resulting in a significant influx of foreign troops in the region.
The escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan in 2024 has aggravated by a string of cross-border confrontations, with one particularly notable incident being a Pakistani airstrike on suspected terrorist hideouts in Afghanistan. The attacks in Pakistan have been attributed to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups operating from Afghan territory. Despite denials from the Afghan Taliban government about harbouring foreign armed groups, they have acknowledged the difficulties in controlling certain parts of the border with Pakistan. Complicating matter further is the presence of millions of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, with suspicions that some may have ties to extremist organizations proliferating all over the world.
The dynamic between the two neighbours is akin to a complicated family feud, with shifting alliances and conflicting interests at play.
The current situation is unpredictable, as accusations of aggression and sovereignty violations fly between both parties, highlighting the threat posed by groups such as TTP to regional peace and security. Close in the vicinity, the two bordering nations possess an intricate relationship that mirrors that of distant cousins, yet they encounter obstacles in reaching consensus and upholding a stable bond and alliance.
For years, Pakistan has been viewed as a supporter of the Taliban/Jihad since the 1970s and was believed to have significant influence over the Afghan leadership, providing them with shelter, food, funding, and diplomatic protection. However, with the onset of the ‘global war on terror’, a new player emerged – the Pakistani Taliban. This group, although ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban, turned against Pakistan and began waging war within the country.
The dynamic between these two neighbours is akin to a complicated family feud, with shifting alliances and conflicting interests at play. The impact of their discord extends beyond their borders, affecting regional security and stability of South Asia and the Middle East.
Pakistan had hoped to leverage its historical influence in Kabul following the return of the Afghan Taliban in late 2021. However, instead of stability, the country experienced a surge in inland terrorist attacks, making 2023 one of the bloodiest years in recent history.
Over 650 attacks occurred across the country, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,000 individuals, predominantly from law enforcement agencies and the military. The majority of these attacks on security personnel were attributed to the Pakistani Taliban, as well as some other lesser-known armed groups.
In 2023, more than 90 percent of the attacks took place in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) and the southwestern province of Balochistan, both of which share borders with Afghanistan. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continues to function at a significant scale in Afghanistan but conducts terrorist operations in Pakistan, often utilising Afghan nationals. Surprisingly, the Taliban government does not view TTP as a terrorist group; the bonds between them are strong, and the debt owed to TTP is substantial.
Pakistan is supposed to hold significant influence over Afghanistan for centuries’ old common history, hosting millions of Afghan refugees since 1979 and its status as the largest trading partner. Additionally, many Afghans reside permanently in posh localities of Pakistan especially in Karachi, Quetta, and Peshawar.
However, recent attempts by Pakistan to repatriate refugees in response to increased violence have met with criticism both domestically and internationally. Employing these methods of influence might exacerbate tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, potentially harming both countries in the long term. As Pakistan grapples with these issues, there are concerns that the security situation in KPK and Balochistan will continue to deteriorate.
Extremist groups like the TTP and IS-K are likely to exploit the insecure political climate to launch further attacks against security forces. Let us not forget, the worsening security environment in Pakistan, along with persistent political chaos and economic instability, will continue contributing to the difficulties encountered in the whole region.
In light of these challenges, both Pakistan and Afghanistan must work towards fostering greater cooperation and stability in the region to address the root causes of insecurity and violence.
Instead of viewing counterterrorism as a burden, political parties and policymakers of Pakistan should learn to live with it, reassess their focus and allocate resources accordingly to combat this pressing menace. Policymakers must give top priority to counterterrorism efforts in order to mitigate these threats effectively.
A man’s gun is his jewellery. Pushto Proverb
Ticket to a Brighter Tomorrow
By: Dr Muhammad Zeshan | July 26, 2024
Let’s face it, folks – Pakistan’s been stuck in an energy rut for far too long. We’re a country blessed with sunshine galore, yet here we are, fumbling around in the dark. It’s high time we stopped talking about our “energy crisis” and started seizing our “solar opportunity.”
Picture this: A Pakistan where blackouts are ancient history. Where factories hum along without a hitch, hospitals run smoothly 24/7, and kids can study without worrying about the lights going out. Sounds like a dream, right? Well, it doesn’t have to be. We’re sitting on a goldmine of solar potential, and it’s about time we cashed in.
Now, I know what you’re thinking. “Solar power? Isn’t that expensive?” Sure, the upfront costs might make you wince. But let’s do the math. Solar panel prices are dropping faster than a hot potato. The long-term savings on electricity bills? Massive. And let’s not forget the cherry on top – it’s clean energy that won’t leave our kids coughing in smog-filled cities.
But here’s the real kicker – jobs. A booming solar industry means employment opportunities galore. From engineers designing cutting-edge panels to technicians installing them on rooftops, we’re talking about a whole new sector of green jobs. It’s not just about keeping the lights on; it’s about lighting up our economy.
Look, the sun’s been shining on Pakistan for millennia. Isn’t it about time we put it to work?
Now, I’m not saying it’ll be a walk in the park. We’ve got challenges to tackle – upgrading our rickety old power grid, figuring out energy storage, the whole nine yards. But come on, since when have Pakistanis shied away from a challenge? These aren’t roadblocks; they’re opportunities to innovate, to lead, to show the world what we’re made of.
To make this solar dream a reality, we need all hands on deck. The government needs to step up, cutting through red tape and rolling out the red carpet for solar investments. We need policies that make going solar a no-brainer for businesses and households alike.
But it’s not just about big solar farms in the desert. Think smaller. Think local. Imagine a farmer using solar-powered pumps to irrigate his fields, boosting his yield and his income. Picture a small shop owner in a remote village, running her business without fretting about electricity bills. That’s the real power of solar – it can transform lives at the grassroots level.
And let’s talk about our cities. Our urban skylines could be more than just concrete jungles – they could be solar powerhouses. Every rooftop, every parking lot, every bit of unused space could be generating clean, green energy. We could have solar-powered streetlights, traffic signals, even electric vehicle charging stations. It’s not science fiction; it’s all possible with the technology we have today.
Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum. We need education. We need awareness. Solar energy should be part of our school curriculum. We need media campaigns showcasing solar success stories. We need to create a culture where going solar is seen as smart, patriotic, and just plain cool.
And here’s a thought – why stop at our borders? Pakistan could become a regional leader in solar technology. We could be exporting our expertise, our innovations, our solar solutions to the world. Imagine “Made in Pakistan” solar panels powering homes and businesses across the globe. Now that’s a future worth striving for.
Look, the sun’s been shining on Pakistan for millennia. Isn’t it about time we put it to work? We have the resources, we have the talent, and by God, we have the need. All we’re missing is the will to make it happen.
So, what do you say, Pakistan? Are we ready to step into the light? Are we ready to harness the power of the sun and build a brighter, cleaner, more prosperous future for ourselves and our children? I say we are. Let’s make Pakistan a shining beacon of solar power. Let’s show the world that when it comes to clean energy, we don’t just talk the talk – we walk the walk.
The sun is rising on a new era for Pakistan. It’s time we rose to meet it.
India initiates a new era of brutality in Held Kashmir
By: Abdul Basit Alvi | July 26, 2024
For decades, the region of Jammu and Kashmir has been a focal point of contention between India and Pakistan, with its residents caught in the crossfire of geopolitical tensions. Within this complex landscape lies a tragic narrative of human rights abuses and systemic repression, particularly in the Indian-Occupied Kashmir under Indian governance. India’s control over the region dates back to 1947, when military forces were deployed following the signing of the Instrument of Accession by the then Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir. Efforts of Pakistan and later the people of Kashmir themselves resulted into liberation of a part of Kashmir which is known as AJK.
The situation in Indian-Occupied Kashmir remains deeply troubling, marked by a significant Indian military presence and stringent security measures. In August 2019, the Indian government revoked Article 370 of the Constitution, which had granted special autonomy to the region, and restructured the state into two UniIndia must acknowledge the reality that Kashmiris do not wish to remain part of India, and it ongoing actions to absorb Indian-Occupied Kashmir exacerbate Kashmiri resentment. India’s attempts to suppress Kashmiri aspirations for self-determination are unlikely to succeed, and India is obliged to grant Kashmiris the right to determine their own future. India’s recent and historical actions violate UN resolutions that recognize Kashmir as a disputed issue, requiring global attention and condemnation of India’s actions on Territories. This decision was accompanied by a severe crackdown, including a blackout on communications, mass arrests of political figures and activists, and restrictions on movement.
Reports from international human rights organizations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the United Nations consistently highlight serious human rights violations in IIOJK, including extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, arbitrary detentions, torture, and sexual violence perpetrated by Indian security forces. Civilians, including women and children, have been caught in the crossfire or deliberately targeted during military operations.
The Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) and the Public Safety Act (PSA) grant Indian security forces sweeping powers with limited accountability, contributing to a climate of impunity. Under these laws, security personnel can arrest individuals without a warrant and detain them for extended periods without trial, leading to widespread fear and mistrust among the local population. The conflict has taken a heavy toll on the civilian population of Indian-Occupied Kashmir, with reports of psychological trauma, displacement, and economic hardship.
The region’s development has been hampered by curfews, internet shutdowns, and restrictions on freedom of movement, hindering access to education, healthcare, and livelihood opportunities. The international community, including the United Nations and various human rights organizations, has consistently urged India to uphold its international obligations, thoroughly investigate allegations of human rights abuses, and ensure justice and reparations for victims. However, progress has been slow, with India often dismissing external criticism as interference in its internal affairs.
Article 370 was integrated into the Indian Constitution in 1949, recognizing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir within the Indian Union. This article granted the state significant autonomy, enabling it to have its own constitution, flag, and substantial legislative powers, except in defense, foreign affairs, finance, and communications, which required approval from the Indian government. Over the years, Article 370 underwent multiple amendments and interpretations, reflecting shifting political dynamics and internal governance challenges within IIOJK.
Despite its special status, the region experienced periods of political instability, armed conflict, and Independence movements. In August 2019, under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Government of India revoked Article 370 through a presidential order, alongside Article 35A, which conferred special privileges and rights to permanent residents of Indian-Occupied Kashmir. This decision also involved reorganizing the state into two Union Territories: Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
The revocation of Article 370 sparked widespread controversy and protests both domestically and internationally. Critics argued that it eroded the region’s autonomy and breached commitments made to the people of J&K during the accession period.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) became involved in the Kashmir issue in 1948, adopting Resolution 47, which called for a ceasefire and a referendum to allow the people of Jammu and Kashmir to determine their future status. This resolution laid the groundwork for subsequent resolutions that reaffirmed the principle of self-determination and the necessity for a plebiscite to ascertain the wishes of the Kashmiri people. Resolution 47 (1948) outlined a three-step process: ceasefire, withdrawal of foreign forces, and a plebiscite supervised by the United Nations to decide the future of Jammu and Kashmir.
Throughout the years, the UNSC passed multiple resolutions reiterating the right of the Kashmiri people to self-determination. These resolutions emphasized the importance of creating conditions conducive to a free and fair plebiscite. Despite the United Nations’ clear stance and international consensus on the issue, implementing these resolutions has encountered significant challenges. India has consistently denied the right of self-determination to the people of Indian-Occupied Kashmir, instead opting to revoke the region’s special status and seeking to integrate it into India, bypassing UN resolutions on Kashmir.
India must acknowledge the reality that Kashmiris do not wish to remain part of India, and it ongoing actions to absorb Indian-Occupied Kashmir exacerbate Kashmiri resentment. India’s attempts to suppress Kashmiri aspirations for self-determination are unlikely to succeed, and India is obliged to grant Kashmiris the right to determine their own future. India’s recent and historical actions violate UN resolutions that recognize Kashmir as a disputed issue, requiring global attention and condemnation of India’s actions.
The Kashmir conflict remains a focal point of international attention and concern due to its potential for regional instability and humanitarian consequences. The United Nations and various international organizations have repeatedly urged for dialogue and a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue, emphasizing the importance of upholding human rights and addressing grievances through diplomatic channels. However, the issue remains unresolved, largely due to India’s actions.
The Indian-Occupied Kashmir region has a turbulent history marked by conflict and political instability, exacerbated by the killings and arrests of prominent Kashmiri leaders. These incidents have not only exacerbated divisions within the region but have also elicited international concern and condemnation. One of the most significant and tragic events in recent memory was the killing of Burhan Wani in July 2016.
Wani, a young and influential commander and advocate for Kashmiri freedom, was viewed as a symbol of resistance against Indian rule. His death during an encounter with security forces triggered widespread protests and a harsh crackdown, resulting in numerous civilian casualties and hundreds injured. Following Wani’s death, the region experienced a wave of unrest, marked by curfews, severed communication lines, and subsequent targeted killings of other vocal advocates for Kashmiri rights and autonomy, such as Riyaz Naikoo and Zakir Musa, who were killed in separate encounters with security forces.
In addition to these killings, there have been numerous instances of arbitrary arrests and detentions of Kashmiri political leaders and activists. Ex-CM Mehbooba Mufti, leader of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), was detained under the stringent Public Safety Act (PSA) following the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019. She, along with other political figures like Omar Abdullah and Farooq Abdullah, remained under house arrest for months. India’s treatment of its Kashmiri allies underscores a broader pattern of skepticism and disregard toward Kashmiri sentiments.
These arrests were widely criticized as politically motivated attempts to stifle dissent. Many detainees were held without charge or trial. Reports from human rights organizations and local activists detail the harsh conditions and allegations of torture faced by detainees, further escalating tensions in the region. The killings and arrests of prominent Kashmiri leaders have drawn international condemnation and scrutiny. Human rights organizations such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented cases of extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and torture, calling for independent investigations and urging the Indian government to uphold human rights and international humanitarian law.
The UN and various countries have expressed concerns over the situation in Indian-Occupied Kashmir. The lack of transparency in legal proceedings and the denial of access to independent observers have heightened apprehensions about the human rights situation. The repercussions of these killings and arrests extend beyond the immediate victims, deepening distrust between the local population and security forces and perpetuating a cycle of violence and retaliation. The environment of fear and uncertainty has suppressed political dissent and dialogue, undermining the prospects for a peaceful resolution to the Kashmir conflict.
The Indian government has solidified its decision to revoke the special status of Indian-Occupied Kashmir by approving a contentious notification. After nullifying its special status, the Indian Home Ministry recently amended the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act, expanding the powers of the lieutenant governor.
These amendments, titled the Transaction of Business of the UT of IIOJK’s Government (Second Amendment) Rules, 2024, were recently published in the Indian Official Gazette. They hold particular significance in light of the upcoming assembly elections in Indian-Occupied Kashmir, as they grant the lieutenant governor increased discretion in various administrative domains.
These controversial revisions signal a significant shift in Indian-Occupied Kashmir’s administrative structure, indicating a trend toward heightened central control. This action bypasses UN resolutions on Kashmir and further consolidates the annulment of Indian-Occupied Kashmir’s special status. The detailed notification from ensures that all proposals in specified domains follow proper channels before reaching the lieutenant governor’s office, laying the groundwork for substantial changes in Indian-Occupied Kashmir ‘s governance and administrative dynamics. These amendments suggest India’s lack of confidence in the elected civilian government and may exacerbate human rights violations. This move has been vehemently criticized by Kashmiris on both sides of the LoC.
India must acknowledge the reality that Kashmiris do not wish to remain part of India, and it ongoing actions to absorb Indian-Occupied Kashmir exacerbate Kashmiri resentment. India’s attempts to suppress Kashmiri aspirations for self-determination are unlikely to succeed, and India is obliged to grant Kashmiris the right to determine their own future. India’s recent and historical actions violate UN resolutions that recognize Kashmir as a disputed issue, requiring global attention and condemnation of India’s actions.
China reevaluating CPEC undertaking?
By: Imtiaz Gul | July 26, 2024
A rethink on big-ticket economic engagement under CPEC is underway in Beijing. This impression stems from recent interactions with Chinese regional affairs experts on Pakistan, Afghanistan, and India watchers. Until 2015, Beijing never bothered about Pakistan’s internal political dynamics. We deal with the country and not personalities, they used to say. Even the launch of the CPEC as the so-called flagship of President Xi Jinping’s BRI stemmed from Beijing’s unflinching faith in the friendship with Pakistan.
But as things began unfolding under CPEC, China figured out the socio-political realities of Pakistan — accentuated particularly by the ethnic divisions and the consequences of a multi-party system. The CPEC-related roadblocks eventually enforced a deeper study of Pakistan by the Chinese scholars and academia, who meanwhile have a much deeper understanding of the country. Objections by provinces to many CPEC projects and the ascendency of PTI in 2018 to power at the Centre injected a new element into the bilateral relationship.
These conversations with Chinese officials reveal a certain degree of frustration with Pakistan on at least ten counts.
First, the tardy decision-making rooted in the 19th-century elitist and centralised governance regime which is non-responsive to the need for quick, inclusive decision-making and swift implementation.
Second, there is a visible dislike of Pakistani leaders’ propensity to speak more and perform less. Chinese officials and academics hate to hear lofty phrases like “game-changer CPEC, geo-economics”.
Third, Chinese scholars think that federalism has either obstructed or slowed down the progress of some CPEC projects because approval and implementation procedures often involve the central and provincial governments.
Fourth, the political discord i.e. the status quo vs status quo. When analysing the country’s present-day political economy and the context for Sino-Pakistan relations, Chinese intellectuals draw a clear distinction among: a) Conventional political parties i.e. PPP, PML-N, JUI-F, b) Establishment, and c) PTI. They think the trio of forces are at war with one another, pulling the country apart with little consideration for the consequences and no hope for real reform.
Directly related to this is the concern about the growing reliance on the IMF, which appears to have become a tool for dictating the economic agenda. The IMF, they say, is the latest precipitating force restricting Pakistan from adopting a self-charted course for much-needed economic reforms.
Sixth, the traditional congruence of interest and comfort between the IMF and the World Bank on the one hand and the conventional mainstream status quo actors — PPP, PML-N, and the Establishment — on the other. Largely unquestioned, geo-politically conditioned funding by the international finance institutions (IFIs) had continued to flow until the emergence of the PTI, which distinguishes itself from the others with its anti-status quo ethos and a social welfare agenda.
Seventh, this confluence of interests has resulted in a visible tilt of the ruling elites to the West, where the civil-military bureaucracy feels more comfortable than in China. Education and training in the West are often seen as the best ladder for upward mobility in careers at home.
The eighth frustration relates to family politics. They ask: why are Pakistanis condemned to be ruled by two families only? They argue that family politics seem to stymie the growth of younger, talented and deserving leadership that the country needs. It obstructs leadership rejuvenation.
Ninth, in the eyes of Chinese academia and officials, the Establishment remains the lynchpin in Pakistan’s security matrix — a force that they believe has held Pakistan together. However, they also feel that the Establishment’s predominance in the political economy negatively impacts the country’s socio-economic growth.
Can the Establishment step back from politics and corporate commercial activities?
In China, President Hu Jin Tao began pushing the military away from business ventures to modernise itself in the face of challenges from the US-led West. President Xi followed up and openly asked the military to disengage from commercial activities and focus on turning itself into the iron wall for the defence of China. The objective was for the military to focus on its primary task of safeguarding the country against external threats. Is the same possible in the case of Pakistan? This is a question resonating among think-tanks in China.
The tenth concern is linked to the CPEC projects, which stands out as the biggest source of frustration. With the Chinese circular debt topping Rs500 billion, delayed payments, administrative hurdles in the way of repatriation of profits, and idle power plants set up by Chinese companies seem to have compelled a rethink on CPEC Phase-II.
Ten years on, many Chinese expectations associated with CPEC have gone sour — a journey of lofty rhetoric and shallow promises by Pakistani leaders and less inclination to implementation and reform required for desired economic progress.
Officials and analysts in Beijing sound less optimistic about the second phase of CPEC. They point out that most projects in the first phase suffer from deficient performance, underutilisation, or dysfunction. The major reasons for that are the poor absorption and performance capacity and the country’s inability to honour its financial obligations. The power sector’s circular debt is a glaring example. Chinese investors see it as a waste of resources, time, and, of course, existing capacity.
For Chinese officials, the foremost challenge is making existing projects effectively functional — an apparent precondition for commitment to financing new projects. Why waste money and time when optimum utilisation and output are not certain?
For Chinese officials, the primary challenge is to ensure that existing projects are effectively functional, an apparent precondition for committing to financing new projects under CPEC Phase II. Why waste money and time when the optimal utilisation and output are uncertain?
Apocalypse Pakistan
By: Imran Malik | July 26, 2024
Pakistan faces multipronged existential threats and appears to be hurtling headlong into a bottomless, squirming quagmire. Pervasive political discord is severely polarizing its socio-political spectrum. Political and institutional disharmony at the state level is crippling its normal functioning. National politics has degenerated into a ruthless war for survival and is being fought on all possible fronts - in public and social discourses, in print, electronic, social media, and in the courts of law. Every effort is being made to eliminate political opponents, by hook or by crook. Political parties and institutions appear to be at loggerheads and unable to work together. Unrelenting terrorist attacks emanating from Afghanistan continue unabated, especially in KP and Balochistan which are already reeling under socio-political unrest. Pakistan’s economy continues to totter precariously on the edge of imminent insolvency. An uncertain political environment is causing a massive brain drain and a relocation of industry abroad. The ever-rising cost of living has made life intolerable for the people. The IPP conundrum defines today’s Pakistan; the ruthless, remorseless, heartless, savage exploitation of this nation’s resources by its so-called elite!
Is this multipronged assault on Pakistan a part of a grand strategic design to coerce it into specific policy options regarding its geopolitical alignments, independence, security, economy, strategic assets etc? Or is it a direct result of our so-called elite’s abundant inadequacies, weaknesses, vulnerabilities, incompetence, greed, and obsessive compulsion to amass unlimited pelf? Ominously, is it both, and does the latter enable and facilitate the former?
Pakistan however, must adopt a two-phased policy, in the correct order, to emerge from this self-inflicted, debilitating imbroglio. First, the government in power must bring about political stability immediately and amicably. Thereafter, a whole-of-the-nation effort must be made to revive the economy. A politically stable and economically vibrant Pakistan will overcome the other existential threats, especially terrorism, from a position of superior, decisive strength.
This necessitates a massive paradigm shift in our national politics. Pakistan must reset its priorities. No ego, person, or party is bigger than Pakistan itself. National interests must supersede personalities, party interests and institutional biases/preferences. The parliament needs to be made fully functional and assertive. Political sanity, good common sense and an unwavering pursuit of national interests only must define our politics and statecraft henceforth. All politicians must agree to a Grand National Dialogue in the form of an All-Parties Conference. They must unite and work together to “make Pakistan great again”. It is imperative that Pakistan’s elite rises to the occasion and does not fail it in its hour of trial. All politicians, parties and institutions need to collaborate to pull Pakistan back from the edge of the precipice - they have no other option! The current state of affairs is unsustainable for Pakistan which is facing a multitude of existential threats; a lack of visionary, statesman-like leadership at the national level being the most critical one!
Furthermore, Pakistan needs to come up with a whole-of-the-nation response to the wave of terrorist attacks as a prerequisite to its economic resurgence. The attitude of the Afghanistan/TTA government is extremely intriguing. Does the TTA facilitate the TTP’s bloody terrorist attacks to kill Pakistanis as a reward for its support to it against the US-led ISAF? Is its inherent ill-will towards Pakistan rearing its head, yet again? And/or is it also a tool in the grand strategic design to keep Pakistan constantly destabilized, maintained in (un)controlled chaos and rendered acutely susceptible to the diktat of the powers that be? Is its facilitation of RAW and other hostile intelligence agencies against Pakistan intended towards attaining that sordid end-state too? Or portentously, is it all of the above?
Pakistan must adopt a two-pronged policy with Afghanistan/TTA. It should try to develop a politico-economic stake for it to have good relations with Pakistan. It should engage it diplomatically, give it continuous support in regional-international fora, and facilitate smooth bilateral, and international trade, development of trade corridors, etc. On the other hand, Pakistan must take swift, prompt, and punitive measures against each terrorist attack, going boldly to the border whenever, and wherever required. No terrorist attack must go unpunished. It may opt for brain warfare instead of body warfare - start targeting the command levels of the terrorists instead of their foot soldiers! A steady loss of commanders will have a sobering effect on their penchant for violent terrorist activities. Furthermore, terrorists tend to generally attack our static installations like check posts, depots, office buildings etc. Pakistan’s military must wrest the initiative back from them, move out of static installations, dominate the land/battlefields and force them into a form of battle they are not accustomed to, equipped and/or trained for. Superior air and ground mobility, protection, communication, firepower - both direct and indirect, longer-range weapons, timely and accurate intelligence, etc are inevitable for success against the TTP and others of its ilk. The vertical/air element too must come into play with short-range missiles, drones - armed and unarmed, and helicopters including gunships and fighter-bombers coming into play. Pakistan must take the battle to the terrorists from a position of overwhelming strength and force them into a reactive mode. Pakistan’s battle-hardened, professional military has done it earlier and can do so again!
There is a dire need for Pakistan’s ruling elite to take a “political pause” and (re)consider the disastrous implications of its unscrupulous, endless lust and thrust for absolute power; the existential threats are getting menacingly exacerbated, in the meantime. As a state, Pakistan appears to be unravelling rapidly. A literal Apocalypse stares it in the face! It must be forestalled. It is thus imperative that a well-crafted, whole-of-the-nation effort is launched to halt and reverse Pakistan’s inexorable descent into unmitigated disaster!
Harris vs. Trump: What’s next for Pakistan?
By: Qamar Bashir | July 25, 2024
The divine approval seemed to suddenly turn away from US President Joe Biden after he fumbled, lost his words, and struggled to maintain the sequence while making points, showing visible signs of aging during his debate with Republican challenger Donald Trump. Later, he contracted coronavirus, perhaps seen as the final push of the divine to move him out of the president’s slot. The “Huma,” the “Bird of Paradise,” which had been protecting his presidency, flew away in search of a new abode. For the first time, it found not a man, but a woman of mixed heritage— Black and Tamil— bestowing her with the strength and charisma to enter the race to become the first-ever female president of the world’s most powerful country in known history.
She was nominated by Joe Biden as his successor, but this was only half the battle won. She still has to pass many tests and cross numerous formidable hurdles to officially secure her position as the Democratic nominee and run for the presidency. With the broadest smile, exuding confidence and competence, she is well-prepared for the challenge, but the path ahead is steep, with stiff competition from many men with impressive CVs and compelling credentials.
However, fate seems to be smiling on her. She has already made significant strides towards securing the Democratic nomination for the presidency. She has successfully garnered the support of enough Democratic delegates, and top Democrats, including elected officials, party leaders, and political organizations, have rallied behind her following President Joe Biden’s decision to drop his bid for reelection. She has set a new 24-hour record of raising $48 million for presidential donations, and several state delegations, including Texas and California, have confirmed their support.
But who is Kamala Harris?. Shew was born on 20 October 1964, is a member of the Third Baptist Church of San Francisco, a mixed race, with a Black and South Asian heritage. Her mother, the late Shyamala Gopalan, a PhD, was of Indian Tamil descent from Madras (now Chennai), India. Her father, Donald Jasper Harris, is of Jamaican descent and is an economist and professor emeritus at Stanford University. Kamala has one sibling, a younger sister named Maya Harris, who is a lawyer, public policy advocate, and political analyst, and who served as a senior policy advisor to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign. She is married to Douglas Emhoff, an attorney. They got married on 22 August 2014. She does not have biological children but is a stepmother to Emhoff’s two children from his previous marriage, Cole and Ella Emhoff.
Kamala Harris earned a Juris Doctor (J.D.) from the University of California, Hastings College of the Law, in 1989. She began her legal career as a deputy district attorney in Alameda County, later serving as San Francisco’s District Attorney from 2004 to 2011, and as California’s Attorney General until 2017. Her career culminated with her election as Vice President alongside President Joe Biden in 2020.
Like all countries, Pakistan is closely watching the ups and downs of the U.S. elections. Pakistan, like others, is evaluating both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for their expected policies toward Asia, South Asia, and Pakistan.
Pakistan has already experienced Trump’s presidency, so his policies may not come as a surprise. However, Trump had some positive aspects for Pakistan. He prioritized counter-terrorism and used military force and economic sanctions to curb terrorism. His administration carried out drone strikes and targeted terrorist leaders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, Trump focused on reducing U.S. military presence while negotiating with the Taliban, leading to the Doha Agreement aimed at withdrawing U.S. troops. His approach to countries perceived to harbor terrorists involved applying pressure through sanctions and military actions.
Regarding the Kashmir dispute, Trump generally supported India’s position, occasionally offering to mediate between India and Pakistan, but his administration was less vocal about human rights concerns in the region.
Trump’s view of Pakistan-China relations was generally wary, seeing Pakistan primarily through the lens of counter-terrorism and regional stability rather than as a broader geopolitical partner. He strengthened U.S.-India relations, viewing India as a key strategic partner to counterbalance China’s influence in the region, which sometimes strained U.S.-Pakistan relations.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris is likely to maintain a strong stance on counter-terrorism, emphasizing a combination of military, diplomatic, and economic tools. She is expected to support initiatives that enhance regional stability and cooperation in counter-terrorism efforts.
In Afghanistan, Harris would focus on ensuring that the country does not become a haven for terrorists again, emphasizing diplomatic solutions and international cooperation.
On the Kashmir dispute, Harris may take a more balanced approach, emphasizing human rights and democratic values. She has previously expressed concerns about the situation in Kashmir, which could lead to a more vocal stance on human rights issues.
Regarding Pakistan-China relations, Harris is likely to acknowledge their strategic importance while seeking to balance US interests in the region, potentially engaging Pakistan in broader diplomatic and economic initiatives to counterbalance China’s influence.
Under Trump, India was seen as a crucial partner in the Indo-Pacific strategy to counter China’s rise, leading to significant defence agreements and a strong bilateral relationship.
Under Harris, while India will likely continue to be a strategic partner in counterbalancing China, she might also stress human rights and democratic values in US-India relations, potentially leading to a more holistic approach.
For Pakistan, this comparison seems to tilt in favour of Kamala Harris becoming President of the USA. However, the true test will come once her policies take shape after she assumes office and confronts the ground realities and complexities of geopolitics. She will only realize the full impact of the intricate layers of bilateral and multilateral relations after assuming the mantle of power. Pakistan may likely be overshadowed by larger issues such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the China-Taiwan standoff, the trade and innovation war between the U.S. and China, and the Israel-Gaza conflict to name a few.
The Perils of Unchecked Extremism
By: Sanaullah | July 25, 2024
There is no meaningful change in Modi’s cabinet, with key ministries still held by the BJP. All those ministers who have till recently played key role in setting domestic agenda revolving around Hidutva militancy and those who ran foreign policy retain their ministerial portfolios.
What does this trend suggest? An unwillingness to address the communal tensions and move towards inclusive governance in the context of Indian internal politics and continuation of no contact with Pakistan and no stopping to countering China while benefiting from China-US competition. So far this policy has helped Modi to secure the rare third term, and there is no pressure on his government to change it.
With Ajit as home minister Doval as the national security advisor, Jaishankar as foreign Minister and Yogi as UP chief minister tend to strengthen the view that the policies witnessed in last two tenures would not undergo any drastic change. This presumption will only perpetuate the state of enmity between India and its neighbors, undermining regional stability and economic development. Without a genuine dialogue and concessions to all parties, the prospects for improved cross-border connectivity and economic cooperation remain bleak.
The BJP, the ruling Hindu has played critical role in perpetuating religious extremism and intolerance towards religious minorities, particularly Muslims and Christians. In fact, it implemented policies and rhetoric rooted in Hindutva ideology, which seeks to establish Hindu supremacy and marginalize non-Hindu communities in complete defiance of Constitutional guarantees for minorities.
What was offensive to other minorities and not allowed under the country’s law included banning cow slaughter, promoting Hindu education and culture, and making inflammatory statements against Muslims. In parallel, BJP aligned itself with extremist Hindu groups like the RSS and VHP, giving them impetus to commit acts of violence and discrimination against minorities. Incidents of “cow lynchings”, attacks on Christians, and the demolition of the Babri Masjid mosque, albeit common under the Congress rule, increased multifold under BJP rule. The BJP’s politicization of religious issues, such as the construction of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya was a calculated strategy to consolidate its Hindu voter base and marginalize minorities.
The BJP’s embrace of Hindutva ideology, alliance with extremist Hindu groups, and failure to curb communal violence have significantly contributed to the rise of religious intolerance and extremism in India. Under its rule, there is no chance that one will witness its abatement.
Karnell Singh, a leader from India’s ruling Hindu nationalist BJP party sparked outrage with his chilling threat to “slaughter 200,000 Muslims” following an incident involving a cow’s head near a Hindu temple in Delhi the other day. This inflammatory rhetoric is a troubling manifestation of the extremist Hindutva sentiments that have long plagued India, particularly towards its Muslim The path forward requires a shift away from divisive Hindutva politics and towards inclusive, secular governance that addresses the concerns of all communities. Only then can India hope to foster regional peace, economic integration and shared prosperity with its neighbors, and achieve its strategic goals including a permanent membership of the UN SC.
But one should not forget that India’s history is marred by religious-based violence, including the traumatic events surrounding the Partition and the subsequent conflicts over the status of Kashmir and the Sikh community’s demand for Khalistan. These deep-seated divisions continue to simmer, threatening to erupt into further chaos and instability. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term has seen the retention of the same BJP team in key ministries, signaling reluctance to meaningfully address these issues or introduce substantive changes in India’s governance and foreign policy. This intransigence undermines the prospects for regional stability and economic development, as the perpetual state of enmity and “hybrid warfare” between India and its neighbors stifles any progress towards connectivity and prosperity.
Geopolitical tensions and instability is harmful to Indian as well. Its strategic interests which undoubtedly are not to play a second fiddle to any other power but to use their power to enhance its own global power & projection. The abusive governance style of Modi will continue to hamper regional economic progress, as no profitable ventures can thrive in an environment of chaos.
Without a genuine commitment to dialogue, reconciliation, and the protection of minority rights, India’s path forward remains treacherous. The temptation to “undo each other” will continue to fuel geopolitical tensions, effectively killing any hopes for a thriving regional economy. Connectivity initiatives, which are crucial for economic development, cannot be profitably pursued in an environment of chaos and instability. To break this vicious cycle, India must confront its own demons of religious extremism and intolerance.
The government must take decisive steps to rein in hate speech, protect minority communities, and foster a culture of inclusivity and mutual understanding. Only then can India hope to establish lasting peace and stability in the region, paving the way for sustainable economic growth and regional integration. Fortunately, India’s neighbors, particularly Pakistan and China, are ready to play a constructive role in this process. Engaging in constructive dialogue, addressing longstanding disputes, and finding common ground on issues of shared interest can help create an environment conducive to regional cooperation and development.
The path ahead is fraught with challenges, but the stakes are too high to ignore. India’s future, and the prosperity of the entire region, depends on its ability to overcome the divisive forces of religious extremism and embrace a more inclusive, peaceful, and prosperous vision for the future. Failure to do so will only perpetuate the cycle of instability and conflict, with devastating consequences for all.
Hydro Dams: Challenges and Way Forward
By: Dr Shahid Raza | July 25, 2024
True leadership is always characterized by a blend of vision, integrity, empathy, effective communication, and a commitment to empowering and inspiring others. True leaders navigate challenges with resilience and adaptability, foster a collaborative and inclusive environment, and drive their teams toward achieving common goals while maintaining a focus on ethical conduct and true growth.
The Kalabagh Dam is a proposed hydroelectric dam on the Indus River, located in the Mianwali District of Punjab, Pakistan. Despite its potential to address Pakistan’s water and energy needs, the project has been highly controversial and has faced numerous challenges. The Kalabagh Dam remains a contentious issue in Pakistan, with deep-rooted political, environmental, and technical challenges. The debate reflects broader issues of water resource management, inter-provincial relations, and sustainable development in the country. Any resolution would require careful negotiation, compromise, and a focus on equitable resource distribution among all provinces.
Some opponents argue that the dam could adversely affect the agriculture of the regions relying on the Indus River for irrigation. Reduced water flow downstream could harm crops and reduce agricultural productivity. Sindh fears that the dam would reduce the downstream flow of the Indus River, leading to reduced water availability for agriculture and drinking purposes. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is concerned about the potential flooding of fertile lands and displacement of local populations in the Nowshera district. Baluchistan worried about their share of water being reduced, which could affect their agricultural productivity. Some opponents argue that the dam could adversely affect the agriculture of the regions relying on the Indus River for irrigation.
Reduced water flow downstream could harm crops and reduce agricultural productivity. Some suggest investing in smaller, less controversial hydroelectric projects or improving water management and conservation practices across the country as more viable solutions. Proponents of the dam argue for a more comprehensive and integrated approach to water management in Pakistan, including the construction of the Kalabagh Dam to address long-term water shortages and energy needs.
The recurring floods in Pakistan present a significant challenge, causing widespread devastation to lives, property, and infrastructure every few years. Investing in flood control infrastructure such as dams, levees, and reservoirs can help regulate water flow, reduce flood risk, and protect vulnerable communities.
Furthermore, enhancing early warning systems and emergency response capabilities is crucial for timely evacuation and relief efforts during flood events
Understanding the significance of water in shaping prosperity sheds light on the enduring economic growth and legacies of these regions. Proper utilization of water reserves can significantly contribute to agricultural productivity, economic development, and water security in Pakistan. Maximizing the efficiency of irrigation systems and implementing sustainable water management practices could help harness the full potential of these resources while also addressing challenges such as water scarcity and environmental concerns.
It is crucial to explore innovative strategies for utilizing the remaining untapped water reserves effectively to ensure sustainable development and prosperity for the nation. Allocating the untapped water reserves among Pakistan’s four provinces could foster even distribution and usage of water resources, bolstering agricultural and economic growth in the country. By allocating the proper & fair water resources to all provinces as per the agreement, the Government could help address water scarcity issues and promote sustainable growth across the country. Effective management and coordination among the provinces would be essential to ensure fair allocation and efficient utilization of these valuable water reserves for the well-being of all citizens.
The master plan should be made to utilize all available water of 145 MAF. It will be the only way to make a consensus among all the provinces. It is considered that one million acre-feet of water could generate approximately 2 billion dollars in revenue and the untapped water reserves of 30-35 million acre-feet in Pakistan could potentially yield a significant economic return. By utilizing new and advanced irrigation techniques, and modern agricultural production techniques, and exploring opportunities for hydroelectric power generation, the country could harness this economic potential. With proper planning and management, maximizing & utilizing the value of Pakistan’s water resources could contribute to the country’s real economic growth and prosperity.
The floods in Pakistan destroyed infrastructure, businesses, agriculture and economy. The water shortage in the main rivers of Pakistan including the Ravi, Indus River, Jhelum River, and Chenab River which are lifelines for the country’s agriculture and economy, resulted in significant reductions in water availability. The water levels in Mangla Dam, Tarbela Dam, and Chashma Barrage have significantly declined by up to 30 percent. Kala Bagh Dam is the best site to control all flood water and divert it to barren areas of the country. Environmental experts have warned of environmental and climate change threats, it is important to facilitate the construction of the Kala Bagh Dam without any further delay.
The significance of utilizing indigenous resources to address Pakistan’s electricity crisis is the need of the hour. The hydroelectric projects have played a crucial role in the country’s economic development of any nation or country but we failed to do so due to a lack of visionary leadership of the country during the last fifty years & a wasted abundance of resources of this nation.
Even not a single large hydro dam was completed during the last 40 years. Our so-called failed leadership missed several opportunities at each and every step and still on the same path to further destroy the nation and country. Political instability is one of the major causes of this mega-destruction. Even the major allocation of funds from CPEC for energy is for thermal and oil-based projects and only very limited resources are allocated for hydroelectric resources which is a high kind of negligence.
According to one estimate, Pakistan’s total installed electricity generation capacity is 45,000MW out of which 27,000MW of Electricity generation is through thermal resources and 11,000MW of electricity generation is through water resources. The remaining capacity, 6,500MW comes from sources including solar and other renewables.
It is considered that while Pakistan can produce nearly 50,000 MW of electricity, actual electricity generation may vary based on factors such as fuel availability, maintenance schedules, grid stability, and demand fluctuations. We can use 35,000 MW in summer and 20,000 MW in winter but the transmission system cannot bear more than 20,000 MW demand.
Construction and completion of HVDC transmission lines of Matiari to Faisalabad and Hub to Kot Addu on an urgent basis & a special audit for all IPPs and High Voltage transmission lines should be started without any further delay. Inter-Provincial Dialogue needs to initiate comprehensive and inclusive dialogues between the provincial governments of Punjab, Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK), and Balochistan to address their concerns and find common grounds.
Visionary leadership can play a mediating role, ensuring that the interests of all provinces are fairly represented and addressed. Many other hydro projects could have been started during the last forty years but we wasted time only on the Kalabagh Dam and water worth billions of dollars is thrown into the sea every year.
Resolving the Kalabagh Dam issue requires a balanced approach that considers the technical, social, and political dimensions of the project but at the same time, we need to think out of the box and consider other mega water dams. Building trust and consensus among the provinces and political parties and addressing the concerns of true stakeholders/affected communities is crucial for moving forward. With careful planning, transparent decision-making, and inclusive dialogue, it is possible to find a solution that benefits all stakeholders and contributes to Pakistan’s long-term water and energy security. It is true that where many hearts and hands join together, the light of success shines forever.
Muslims in India facing a thousand shades of hatred
By: Durdana Najam | July 25, 2024
A concerted effort is underway to marginalise Muslims in India. The practice of marginalising a community often begins by belittling its social existence and later projecting it as a danger to humanity — either based on their religious practices, as is happening with Muslims, or on the basis of racism, as occurred with Blacks.
Since the BJP, an ultra-right-wing Hindu nationalist political party, took over in India, life for ordinary Muslims has become a chore. Over the past ten years, a generation steeped in a victim mentality has emerged, projecting Muslims as violators of human rights during their 800-year reign. In a bizarre attempt, Hindus are made to believe that everyone who had ever walked on this part of the earth — India, Bangladesh and Pakistan — was Hindu and was forced to convert to Islam by Muslim invaders or Christian missionaries.
In response to this faulty perception, a campaign called Ghar Wapsi, meaning homecoming, was launched to convert the converts. Ghar, which means home, can denote many things, from family, lineage, security and safety to trust and faith, but was reduced to a single connotation of the Hindu umbrella conveniently called Sanatana Dharma. Whereas wapsi, meaning return, was infused with a broad concept that includes lost, strayed, misled, stolen, or captured. In short, the mission has been to bring back under the Sanatan Dharma the lost, strayed, misled, captured, and stolen Muslims and Christians.
For an ordinary Hindu, the political history of the subcontinent is a painful narrative of stolen identity. Combine this with the partitioning of Bharat Mata (Mother India) to form Pakistan, and one gets a lethal concoction of hate speech, violence, and misinformation targeting Muslims.
India has cleverly taken a leaf from the so-called Islamic terrorism playbook to paint Kashmiri freedom fighters as terrorists and later philosophised jihad into a concept that supports the elimination of Hindus. As this mentality was cultured, a new lexicon emerged to make incitement against Muslims less creative and more straightforward.
Hundreds of Muslim boys have been falsely accused of ‘Love Jihad’, a term used to refer to the practice of Muslim men alluring Hindu girls with the intention of marrying them, converting them to Islam, and meting out inhuman treatment.
Every single case of Love Jihad has been thrown out of Indian courts as a conspiracy against Muslims. Since the idea has not been to implicate Muslims in cases, not bad if that happens, but to tarnish their image as haters of idol worshippers and religious bigots appreciative of violence, the practice goes on.
Last year, in Assam, Muslims who were hired to construct embankments to protect communities from flooding were accused of ‘Flood Jihad’. The untimely monsoon was unusually harsh and wiped out the flood defences in the Hindu-majority city of Silchar. Muslims were blamed for deliberately constructing weak embankments. A man named Nazir Hussain Laskar was arrested and kept in jail for 20 days. Four more men were arrested alongside Laskar amid an onslaught of social media posts accusing them of orchestrating Flood Jihad. No evidence linked any of them to the breach.
The Jihad mantra also surfaced at the outbreak of Covid-19 in India, when the phrase ‘Corona Jihad’ was coined. Muslims were falsely accused of deliberately spreading Covid-19. In ‘Land Jihad’, Muslims are blamed for hoarding land to gain control of India’s terrain.
And then there were ‘Vote Jihad’ and ‘Narcotic Jihad’ as well.
The growing intolerance against Muslims resulted in a significant backlash against the BJP in recent elections, with not a single Muslim voting for the ruling party. Whereas in 2019, about 8% Muslims voted for the party.
Along with hate-speech and making Ghar Wapsi an ideological pursuit toward the Hindutva project, another variant to criminalise Muslims was the practice of cow vigilantism. Activists called Gau Rakshaks, or cow protectors, have taken Indian laws banning cattle slaughter and beef consumption into their own hands.
Hate-tracking organisations and human rights groups have claimed that hundreds of Muslims have been lynched over the past few years on suspicion of killing cows.
Muslims are not forbidden to eat beef, and animal slaughter is part of some key Islamic festivals.
A few months ago, 11 Muslim households were demolished in Madhya Pradesh after authorities found beef, which is banned in the state.
A 35-year-old man named Fareed was brutally murdered by Gau Rakshaks in Aligarh because he and his family sacrificed a cow on Eid-ul-Adha this year. Al-Jazeera reported the incident as follows: “More than a dozen men, armed with wooden sticks and iron rods, dragged the 35-year-old Fareed through the street and beat him to death as bystanders caught the horror on their phone cameras.” Another three men were killed on a highway on suspicion of carrying beef. A doctor was vandalised for treating the lynched Muslim.
Recently, in a move condemned and struck down by the Supreme Court of India, the BJP governments of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand gave oral orders for restaurants and roadside carts along a route taken each year by thousands of Hindu pilgrims to display the name of the owners on the outlets. This discriminatory order was wrapped in the logic of preventing Hindus from eating meat items. Rationally speaking, as the courts also argued, this could have been done by simply putting up vegetarian or non-vegetarian boards. Why specify the owner’s name?
Another reasoning given in favour of displaying the owner’s name involves an allegation that Muslims spit on the food they serve to Hindus. Another misleading information.
In response to the court order, India’s social media platforms are buzzing with the anti-halal campaign. Hindus are being asked to refrain from using anything labeled as halal on packaged food.
The BJP’s Hindutva project is fundamentally a discriminatory campaign against Muslims and other minorities. However, the recent election results have shown that the politics of hate has a short shelf life.
Al-Qaeda, Bannu and the road ahead
By: Inam Ul Haque| July 25, 2024
There is a disturbing alliance of interest across Durand Line. Without being alarmist in any way, there is greater anti-Pakistan convergence among the IEA, al Qaeda and TTP. Although it ‘ostensibly’ is not authorised by the top IEA leadership, it is also not without endorsement. The recent capture of al Qaeda facilitator and leader, Amin Muhammad Ul Haq Saam Khan, aka Aminul Haq, from Gujrat in Punjab proper in a CTD-led IBO on 19 July, is a case in point. The fact that he visited Kabul last August and was ‘planning’ terrorist activities in Punjab points to a new strategy by the anti-Pakistan alliance, wherein TTP is also aided and abetted by al Qaeda. Mr Haq has been on the UN, EU and US list of wanted personnel since January 2001.
A recent UN report by the UN Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team reveals resurgence of al Qaeda in the region. Al Qaeda affiliate — al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent or AQIS — founded in September 2014, now led by Osama Mahmood (since 2019), operates in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Myanmar and Bangladesh as its area of operations. As per the report, AQIS runs eight new training camps in Afghanistan with the one in Kunar, across Pakistan, training suicide bombers. AQIS has a strong relationship with TTP, which, as per the report, receives $50,500 monthly from IEA, paid to its Amir, Noor Wali Mehsud. That TTP has now more Afghan recruits. And TTP and AQIS were involved in Chitral attack on Pakistani forces on September 7, 2023. Moreover, the report cites emergence of another militant group Tehreek-e-Jihad-e-Pakistan (TJP) and considers it a ploy to provide ‘plausible deniability’ to TTP/AQIS operations.
The report also mentions the latest weaponry, abandoned by the US forces after their embarrassing withdrawal in August 2021, that is now available to AQIS-TTP combine, courtesy the IEA, in the form of M24 Sniper Rifles, M4 Carbines with Trijicon scopes and M16A14 Rifles with thermal scopes, in addition to the latest night vision devices (NVDs).
In recent history, Ayman Al Zawahiri was killed in a US drone strike in Kabul on July 31, 2022, after Osama bin Laden was slain in US Seals’ raid in Abbottabad on May 2, 2011. And if the insider account of the IEA ascent to power in 1990 till it was removed in 2001, as written by an aide to Mullah Omer, Abdul Hai Mutm’ain, is to be believed, IEA-al Qaeda relationship is multi-layered, deeper and religiously sanctioned. His book, Taliban: A Critical Story from Within (2019), makes a compelling reading.
The IEA-TTP-al Qaeda nexus would continue to bedevil Pakistan’s security establishment as evident from the presence of Mr Haq, and other al Qaeda affiliates on Pakistani soil, some under surveillance but most in sleeper cells not even on radar.
Terrorism is a byproduct of extremism, once it becomes violent. For a variety of social, psychological, economic and political reasons, there would always be a steady stream of recruits to be baptised in violent extremism and terrorism. Therefore, the enduring antidote is to follow a ‘counter violent extremism (CVE)’ policy at individual, organisational and environmental levels…as covered in my articles in this space in December 2023. Counter-terrorism (CT) approach includes application of both ‘kinetic’ (law enforcement, hard power) and ‘non-kinetic’ means (deradicalisation, demobilisation, rehabilitation and coming up with counter-narratives). As per studies, the kinetic to non-kinetic ratio is 20:80.
Pakistan’s kinetic application ranges from Operation Al-Mizan to the presently announced Campaign Azm-e-Istehkam; whereas in the non-kinetic domain, deradicalisation/rehab initiatives like Sabayoun (for radicalised kids in Swat); Mishal for adults; Sparley for families; Darpesh, Umeed-e-Nau, etc in Balochistan were successfully completed under Army, FC and private NGOs. This is in addition to the ‘Peace in Balochistan’ initiative under political government from 2008-2013; the National Internal Security Policy (2013-2018); and the National Action Plan (NAP) after 2015. However, like in all cases, terrorism has a lifespan and must run its complete cycle. Sri Lank finally defeated LTTE in 25 years of relentless military operations. Theoretically kinetic operations create space for effective application of non-kinetic means. So, a long-haul, under whole-of-government approach, under firm political ownership is the way to go.
In Bannu, some people in a peace rally on 19 July turned violent. Reportedly these elements stormed through the breech in the perimeter wall of Bannu Cantt, caused by terrorists’ VBIED attack on 16 July. They tried torching the soldiers’ tents pitched onsite and breaking into CSD — the military-owned superstore. Some miscreants in social media clips can be seen firing weapons, whereas most rally participants remained peaceful. In the ensuing standoff, there were some fatalities in the military’s cautionary fire. From experience, one can say with authority that military retaliation in such situations is last resort, never excessive and not targeted to kill. This notwithstanding, the sequence of events is disconcerting.
Nationalist elements, political parties and religious groups see an opportunity in it to pressurise the state and malign the military. And that makes it imperative for the military to read the situation carefully, act wisely and defuse the stand-off as amicably and as quickly as possible. Many nemeses are angling to fish in the troubled waters, including the trio identified earlier.
The rally leaders while reiterating to support stability, forwarded ten demands, including: action against good/bad Taliban; police patrolling round the clock; ‘police only’ to apprehend criminals; search operations to respect chadar-chardewari; opening of closed roads; administrative action on Taliban patrolling; presenting missing persons in courts; enhancing police capacity; ‘CTD only’ to fight terrorism; end to raids on houses/seminaries; and treatment of injured police persons in CMH Bannu. Although not all the demands are based upon full factual knowledge, these still warrant serious attention. It is important that environment-savvy, preferably Pashtun interlocutors deal with the situation from the military side. And other agencies revert to their supporting CT roles. As a side issue, military deployment on check posts be reconsidered.
There is a strong sense of Pashtun ethnic profiling and victimhood, right or wrong, that needs to be dispelled urgently, comprehensively and consistently. The lack of political support to Azm-e-Istehkam across the religo, political and ethnic spectrum should be taken as a serious indicator. We can do politics to our hearts’ content, once terrorism as an existential threat to Pakistan is defeated in all manifestations. Till then back to work!
Green shields
By: Jamil Ahmad | July 10, 2024
THE sizzling heat that parts of Asia and other regions are grappling with is a phenomenon that is now far from a climate anomaly; it is becoming the new norm. This extreme weather carries grave socioeconomic implications, claiming lives and leading to health problems that affect daily lives, jobs, and productivity. This year is set to become the hottest on record, and if current trends continue, the record may not stand for long.
Trees and green cover are part of nature’s way of protecting humans and other species from extreme heat while providing essential ecosystems. Forests absorb large amounts of carbon dioxide, reduce risks from floods and landslides, and increase environmental resilience to climate change. Beyond sequestering greenhouse gases, forests offer multiple services vital for planetary health and human well-being, including water, clean air, food, biodiversity habitats, and recreational spaces.
A staggering 1.6 billion people directly depend on forests, as do countless animals, plants, insects, and other species. However, this dependence is threatened by rapid deforestation, with around 10 million hectares (25m acres) lost annually. This rate of deforestation not only threatens biodiversity but also disrupts life-supporting ecosystem services.
Approximately 4bn hectares (9.9bn acres), or 31 per cent, of the landmass is covered by forests. However, this green cover is unevenly distributed. According to FAO’s State of the World’s Forests report, just 10 countries account for 66pc of global forests. The remaining are scattered across more than 180 countries. Many developing countries with insignificant forest cover are at a disadvantage in combating environmental degradation.
Pakistan’s already meagre forest cover is dwindling fast.
The vulnerability of these developing countries to climate change is amplified if they suffer from high levels of deforestation, a major contributor to rising temperatures, especially in regions with low forest cover.
With the global population expected to reach 10bn by 2050, the demand for food will rise. Two-thirds of the world’s accessible freshwater is sourced from forested watersheds and wetlands. However, land-use changes such as clearing forests for agriculture to boost food production are flawed strategies. Without sustainable forests, prolonged high temperatures will dry up the soil, reduce crop yields, jeopardise food security, aggravate water scarcity and increase inequality.
Conserving biodiversity is another critical aspect of forests’ roles. They provide habitats for plants, pollinators, and animal species, and act as barriers to wildlife interaction with humans, thus intercepting zoonotic diseases.
Pakistan’s meagre forest cover, less than 5pc of its area, is dwindling fast due to deforestation at an annual rate of 0.75pc, the highest in the region. The country loses 27,000 hectares (66,000 acres) of forest per year to land-use changes and unregulated logging. Deforestation increases the risk of landslides in mountainous terrains and endangers exotic birds and wildlife. The beautiful high-altitude pheasant Himalayan monal, once abundant in mountain forests, is rarely spotted anymore.
As a party to UN environmental conventions, Pakistan must utilise this multilateral mechanism for long-term action to halt deforestation. At the local level, improving forest management and promoting sustainable business practices that benefit local communities is imperative.
Building on earlier declarations, 145 countries at the UN Climate Change Conference in 2021 committed to “halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030”. However, little progress has been made on this and a UNEP report released last month found that countries are falling short of meeting the agreed target to stop deforestation. The report outlines that pledges to reduce deforestation and financially support this transition from developed countries are insufficient to halt deforestation by 2030. This shortfall will worsen the climate and biodiversity crisis and exacerbate poverty.
The report recommends developing long-term integrated policies to reduce deforestation and emphasises empowering local communities to manage their lands as a proven strategy to protect forests within their lands. Noting that deforestation is driven by complex interaction between global, national, and local factors, the report calls for coordinated action to conserve forests “for the sake of people, climate, and nature”.
The escalating heatwaves and their socioeconomic ramifications underscore the urgency of addressing deforestation and promoting sustainable forest management. As the world faces unprecedented environmental challenges, preserving and restoring forest ecosystems is imperative for a sustainable future.
How to keep Pakistan cool
By: Murtaza Talpur | July 10, 2024
Climate change is the latest talk of the town across the world. Earth urgently needs more afforestation and reforestation approaches to tackle the climate challenge. If each person across the world plants a tree daily, we can plant eight billion trees in just one day. Countries such as Pakistan, with alarmingly low forest cover, should take immediate steps and strategies to increase their forest cover.
Pakistan is a forest-poor country. This has resulted in extreme heatwaves across the country, with temperatures crossing 50-plus degrees Celsius in several cities. It is high time we understood the importance of plants and forests. Pakistan comprises 166 districts, including the capital territory, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), and Azad Kashmir. The total land area of Pakistan is 881,913 square kilometres, which equals 217,925,448 (218 million) cultivated and non-cultivated acres. Currently, only 5.0 per cent of this land is forested, which translates to approximately 10,896,272 (10.9 million) acres of forest cover.
For preserving ecological balance and combating climate change, forests play a significant role. They work as carbon sinks, absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and releasing oxygen. Forests also help prevent soil erosion, preserve water resources, and provide habitat for diverse wildlife. Besides, they offer plentiful economic benefits through timber production, ecotourism, and non-timber forest products.
In Pakistan, the need for increased forest cover is particularly demanding because of the country’s vulnerability to climate change impacts such as sea intrusion, floods, torrential rains, droughts and extreme temperatures. Increasing forest cover can help reduce these effects, improve air quality, and contribute to the overall comfort of the population.
Pakistan’s percentage of forest area is disputed. According to estimates by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 2.2 per cent of the total land in Pakistan is covered by forests. The Pakistan Forest Institute estimates it to be 5.1 per cent. According to a survey by the Red Plus Programme in 2017, the forest cover of Pakistan is 5.7 per cent.
In line with the survey under the Red Plus Programme, Azad Jammu and Kashmir have the highest forest cover at 36.9 per cent, followed by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (20.3 per cent), Islamabad (22.6 per cent) and erstwhile federally administered tribal areas (19.5 per cent). The World Wild Fund reports that between 2000 and 2010, Pakistan lost 43,000 hectares of land every year. According to the Sindh Forest Department, Sindh occupies 34.84 million acres of land; 3.426 million acres is under the control of the forest department.
According to the World Bank’s Green Pakistan Forests report, there are 1,232,150 acres (498,906 hectares) of natural forests in Balochistan, which is 1.4 per cent of the total area of the province and 11.1 per cent of the total forests of Pakistan. But according to data obtained from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, 4.06 per cent of the total area in Balochistan consists of forests. It depicts data variation and the dearth of accurate forest data in the country.
The forest cover of the country is far below the global average and poses serious threats to environmental sustainability. The key drivers of forest loss in Pakistan are: deforestation, illegal plotting, land conversion for agriculture, and increasing urbanization. To tackle these challenges, the government and various stakeholders must prioritize afforestation and reforestation initiatives. This includes planting new forests and restoring damaged forest areas to increase their environmental purposes and services.
The government should prepare a yearly goal of planting 100 acres of forest in each district. With 166 districts, this will add up to 16,600 acres of new forest each year in the country. Over five years, this will bring about 83,000 acres of further new forest shield cover. Normally, in reforestation, 1000 to 2000 trees per acre can be planted, but this can differ considerably based on local conditions and the environment.
It is important to note that local and indigenous trees, plants and vines should be encouraged. Besides, active participation from local communities ensures successful afforestation as well as reforestation. The government should provide capacity-building sessions to community members and raise awareness regarding the benefits and importance of forests. Community-based nurseries can also be established to supply saplings for planting.
Apart from that, schools and educational institutions should actively take part in afforestation and reforestation campaigns across the country. Students and teachers should participate in tree planting movements and realize the significance of forests all the way through environmental education programmes. This will inculcate a sense of responsibility and ownership among the younger generation regarding environmental management.
The government should plead with landowners to convert unutilized or damaged land into forest cover. Not only this, but the government may also specify tax breaks, financial incentives, and technical support to motivate afforestation and reforestation on private lands. Agroforestry practices, which integrate trees with crops and livestock, can also be encouraged.
To understand ecological conditions and the topography and cultural preferences of each area, a comprehensive assessment of current forest cover in each district should be conducted by the forest department, taking expertise from forest consultants or experts. The priority areas for afforestation should be identified based on ecological, social, and economic criteria. The assessment may provide baseline data for setting realistic targets and measuring progress.
Besides, the capacity of the forest department and other relevant agencies to implement afforestation projects should be strengthened. This includes staff training, improving infrastructure, and enhancing coordination and networking mechanisms. Each forest department at the district, provincial and national levels should build partnerships with research institutions, NGOs and civil society organizations for further expertise and resources.
The government should initiate pilot afforestation and reforestation projects in selected districts to determine the practicability and benefits of the proposed climate cooling plan. These pilot projects will serve as learning models for scaling up afforestation and reforestation drives throughout the country. Besides, there should be a national afforestation campaign to mobilize public participation and support. The campaign ought to utilize social networks, media and community organizations to enhance awareness and promote tree-planting initiatives.
To keep Pakistan’s climate cool, everyone needs to have a serious role -- from politicians to people. To increase forest cover in Pakistan for biodiversity conservation, climate adaptation, and sustainable development, a well-thought-out and comprehensive afforestation-reforestation plan is important. It should be supported by the government’s strong resolve.
Community participation and civil society representatives and NGOs involvement can play a vital role in enhancing forests in the country. Pakistan can also contribute to global climate goals and ensure a more resilient environment for future generations by planting trees and restoring forests.
Policies that promote progress and stability
By: Talat Masood | July 10, 2024
When countries deviate from the basic norms and fundamental principles of democratic governance, they perhaps do not realise the adverse impact it has on practically most aspects of governance, affecting the lives of millions. It distorts politics when power is in the hands of other state institutions whose responsibilities are different to a political government who are accountable to the people. There are other negative fallouts and it weakens political institutions as we have witnessed in the seventy-six years of our history and throws up leaders who are willing to compromise to gain power. But political leadership that is not in a position to fully exercise its authority further weakens the state by increasing its vulnerabilities.
Pakistan’s leadership needs to reassess its internal and external policies too in view of its own experience and the changing global dynamics. A country that is heavily dependent on IMF and external sources for prolonged periods to keep its economy afloat compromises its independence and is destined to keep majority of its people in a state of poverty. Seeking support of the IMF and international agencies in case of an economic downturn for a limited period of time for developing countries is acceptable but prolonged dependence and no serious effort on the government to revive the economy and shed dependence on foreign assistance should be a cause for serious concern for the leadership. On the contrary, managing the economy so that the country acquires economic autonomy should be a high priority of the government. Considering the extent of prevailing poverty affecting a significant percentage of population in the country improving the economy should be government’s highest priority. This obviously demands ability on the part of leadership and a firm commitment toward achieving this goal.
Equally important is that the political leaders should set aside partisan differences if they are really serious about the country’s future and the wellbeing of its people. But there are no signs of that happening. The PTI despite its significant support among the masses has been reigned in to a point where most of its leadership is in custody or facing charges. When politics is confrontational, democratic values are disregarded it is the people who eventually suffer. And when politics is dragged into court cases the judiciary that will like to stay away from political infighting gets dragged in. What is perhaps not realised is that these policies and actions have a serious impact on practically every aspect of national power and lowers the image of the country. And the burden of these derelictions falls on the people.
The external and internal security situation is another area of serious concern. In KP areas close to the border with Afghanistan security had deteriorated to an extent that military action had become unavoidable. This was also necessary due to the patronage that the TTP and other militant organisations were receiving from the Afghan Taliban government. It indeed remains a matter of serious concern that supposedly a friendly Taliban leadership of Afghanistan be indifferent and support forces hostile to Pakistan. After the army has successfully countered the TTP and a modicum of peace and stability has been restored in the tribal belt the government’s priority should be to focus on the economic uplift of the area. The major reason for militancy to take root apart from the spillover from Afghanistan’s disturbed conditions is the prevailing poverty, meagre opportunities of employment and poor governance of the area.
It is puzzling and difficult to comprehend what encourages the Taliban leadership of Afghanistan to pursue hostile policies toward Pakistan, especially when Pakistan has stood by it all along and extended valuable support. It is a general feeling of insecurity but it is hurting Afghanistan in a big way for it has virtually locked itself in a prison. Perhaps the Taliban leadership apprehends that allowing its people having normal contact with the outside world will open their eyes and broaden their perspective. They will then pose a challenge to the present leadership and their primitive and inward-looking ideology.
Relations with India are on the freeze and it is unclear if Narendra Modi would be any different in his third term in office and pursue the same hostile policy of isolating Pakistan. This is more the reason that Pakistan should further strengthen its ties with China and seek new avenues of cooperation with Saudi Arabia and other Middle East countries. The recent murder of seven Chinese nationals by a militant outfit in Pakistan was a major setback to relations between the two countries. It was not surprising that China downgraded its strategic relations with Pakistan and has taken measures to strengthen the security of its nationals working in Pakistan.
Developing strong political and economic linkages with Central Asian states is critical. There is considerable potential and possibilities of cooperation in the economic and political field with these countries for which Pakistan is well placed. But it can benefit from these provided it is correctly focused, internally stable and capable of producing quality products. This may sound a tall order considering the present state of political confrontation and state of the economy. Our leaders however cannot continue to ignore these and remain oblivious of their responsibilities. Only those leaders succeed who fully grasp the centrality of national interests and work seriously toward promoting these. This makes them more conscious of their obligations and the significance of serving the interests of the people. Our leadership should pursue on these lines if it truly wants to serve the people.
As I and many others have said that our leaders should set aside partisan differences and bring in the PTI and other dissident groups in the fold as an act of responsible leadership that has the interest of the people as their foremost priority. With politics in serious disarray and economy faltering, building a framework for a cooperative approach to tackle national issues should remain a high priority.
Moreover, political consensus and a conscious effort towards reviving the economy is the best way of tackling the perils facing the country and promoting values and policies for moving forward in the 21st century.
Navigating the Chabahar agreement: Pakistan’s strategic outlook
By: Naba Fatima | July 10, 2024
On 13 May, India Ports Global Ltd (IPOGL) and Iran’s Port & Maritime Organisation (PMO) signed a ten-year contract to operate Iran’s Chabahar port. Through this agreement, India would provide a $250 million loan for terminal development and invest $370 million on infrastructure. In return, India secured the administrative control of the port’s terminal and automatic renewal of the contract.
While for India this may appear to open the gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan, the capacity and geographical features of Gwadar Port keep Pakistan at a strategic advantage. Furthermore, Chinese investments in Iran, completion of China Pakistan Economic Corridor phase-1, and the looming threat of US sanctions could potentially hinder India’s strategic objectives.
Since 2003, India has been aspiring to operationalise the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) in cooperation with Iran. However, the dream could not be realised due to US sanctions on Iran, China’s evolving influence in the region, instability in Afghanistan, and lack of investment. In 2020, because of which Iran unilaterally dropped India from the Chabahar rail project over India’s absence of financial engagement. Since then, the negotiations between the two countries have taken many shifts and turns. However, India’s persistence to remain engaged with Iran over Chabahar indicates its foreign policy goal of maintaining autonomy in the region. Nevertheless, China’s $400 billion partnership deal with Iran is a Gordian knot for India to achieve this goal.
In 2020, China signed a historic deal with Iran to establish a direct shipping line to Chabahar, encompassing the Shahid Beheshti and Shahid Kalantari ports. While India’s investments are confined to Shahid Bheshti port, China’s extensive investment in Iran positions Chabahar as a potential asset in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has reiterated on different occasions that it does not see Chabahar as a competition to CPEC but that they complement each other, as it would boost the overall regional connectivity and infrastructure. Additionally, China’s diplomatic clout in Iran has been strengthened after it acted as a mediator between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Under CPEC, more than 50 projects worth $25 billion have been completed. The first phase of the Gwadar Free Zone covering 60 acres is finished with Phase-2 in progress. In contrast, India’s efforts to enhance trade ties with Russia via Iran, through the Chabahar-Zahedan and Rasht-Astara railway lines, have been stalled for over two decades due to lack of investment. It indicates that CPEC infrastructure projects are nearing completion while Chabahar is still years away from being fully operationalised and being opted as an alternate route to CPEC.
Additionally, awadar Port possesses significant advantages over Chabahar Port due to its geographical characteristics and operational efficiency. Gwadar has the capability to accommodate supertankers weighing up to 200,000 tons compared to Chabahar that is limited to the vessels of 20,000 tons. Additionally, the annual capacity of Gwadar is about 300 million to 400 million tons of cargo, whereas, the capacity of Chabahar is only 10 million to 12 million tons of cargo. Gwadar, being a naturally deep sea port also entails relatively less maintenance cost. Therefore, Gwadar port is at a strategically superior position that overshadows the regional importance of Chabahar port.
The threat of US sanctions is another major obstacle for India to capture foreign investment for the development of Chabahar port. The US government has expressed concerns and issued warnings about potential sanctions related to the new Iran-India Chabahar deal. In 2015, the Trump Administration waivered Chabahar port development from its sanctions list to support development in Afghanistan. However, after its withdrawal, its strategic valuation of the region has changed. Therefore, it has become more challenging for India to navigate Chabahar port, keeping in view the US threat of sanctions.
The dynamics surrounding the India-Iran Chabahar agreement reveal a complex interplay of strategic interests in South Asia. India’s pursuit of Chabahar as a gateway to Central Asia highlights its commitment to diversify trade routes and emerge as a regional key player. However, this initiative faces significant challenges due to US-Iran tensions and China’s formidable presence through infrastructure investments in Iran. Pakistan’s unwavering focus on CPEC and the geographical superiority of Gawadar Port provide Pakistan with a strategic edge.
Parallel to these developments, Pakistan has adopted a pragmatic approach towards regional development. It emphasises cooperation over competition in connectivity initiatives. While Chabahar’s advancement may alter regional dynamics, Pakistan’s primary focus remains on CPEC to drive economic growth, improve infrastructure, and strengthen regional partnerships. Therefore, to combat the security challenges triggered by US withdrawal from Afghanistan, operation Azm-e-Istehkam has been initiated. Additionally, Pakistan is diplomatically engaging with Afghanistan to resolve cross-border tension, facilitating the connection of CPEC with Central Asia.
The dynamics surrounding the India-Iran Chabahar agreement reveal a complex interplay of strategic interests in South Asia. India’s pursuit of Chabahar as a gateway to Central Asia highlights its commitment to diversify trade routes and emerge as a regional key player. However, this initiative faces significant challenges due to US-Iran tensions and China’s formidable presence through infrastructure investments in Iran. Pakistan’s unwavering focus on CPEC and the geographical superiority of Gwadar Port provide Pakistan with a strategic edge. Although India has secured an automatic renewal deal with Iran and taken administrative control of one terminal at Chabahar, the full operationalisation of this agreement will require time, considering the history of suspensions and delays in India-Iran relations.
Pakistan’s approach for stable economy
By: Dr Muhammad Akram Zaheer | July 10, 2024
Pakistan’s less than four-month-old government is taking a two-pronged approach to stabilizing the country’s long-troubled economy. It is engaged in protracted negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to secure a loan of at least $6 billion to boost its external debt servicing capacity. At the same time, Islamabad is trying to shore up its economy and deal with the long-standing threat of bankruptcy with the help of its Gulf allies, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, through external financing.
The USA used to be the most important source of foreign direct investment and bilateral aid to Pakistan. However, over the past decade, China has increased its investment in the country, mainly in the form of loans rather than grants. Beijing stepped in to meet Islamabad’s energy and infrastructure needs at a time when Pakistan was facing a decline in US and multilateral support. The fact that China has now become Pakistan’s largest bilateral creditor is a cause for concern not only for the USA but also for Pakistan itself. The USA is suspicious of China’s use of loans to expand its influence in South Asia, and Pakistani policymakers seem wary of risking everything on one endeavour. Trying to improve its relationship with the USA without undermining the growing relationship with China is a tough balancing act not only for Pakistan but also for many other countries in this era of increasing power competition.
In this broader context, Pakistan is trying to diversify its options by strengthening economic ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have long been allies of Islamabad, and over the years, they have helped keep its economy afloat. Saudi aid has been substantial while Emirati aid has been more modest in comparison, especially during difficult periods, such as Pakistan’s wars with India in 1965 and 1971.
Saudi Arabia also provided a financial lifeline to Pakistan after it declared itself a nuclear power in 1998. After India’s nuclear tests, Pakistan faced immense international pressure and threats of sanctions to stop it from testing its weapons. The Saudis have continued to offer deferred oil financing to Pakistan in recent years. Additionally, the United Arab Emirates, along with China and Saudi Arabia, has given billions of dollars in loans to Pakistan to avoid bankruptcy.
Relations between Pakistan and the Gulf states have expanded beyond financial cooperation to include trade, investment and public relations. The UAE has become the second-largest exporter to Pakistan, while Saudi Arabia is the fifth-largest source of petroleum exports. Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have long been important for Pakistani workers. An estimated 2.6 million Pakistanis live in Saudi Arabia and another 1.7 million in the UAE. Saudi Arabia is also the largest source of remittances for Pakistan, followed by the United Arab Emirates.
The fact that a member of the Sharif family is once again in the prime ministership improves Pakistan’s chances of strengthening its ties with the Gulf States. The Sharif family managed to form a coalition government in March after the February elections, despite the popularity of ousted and imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan. The Sharifs have longstanding ties with the Saudis and Emiratis. In addition to helping the Nawaz Sharif-led government move forward and confront US sanctions after its nuclear tests, Saudi Arabia also provided personal aid to the Sharif family. After Gen Pervez Musharraf overthrew and arrested Nawaz Sharif, the Saudis intervened to secure his release and sheltered him and many of his family members from 2000 to 2007.
Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif has already visited Saudi Arabia twice after becoming Prime Minister. He also went on an official visit to the United Arab Emirates in early May. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s visit to Saudi Arabia prompted a delegation of several Saudi companies to visit Pakistan in early May, including those in information technology, renewable energy and tourism.
Unfortunately, decades of US aid and technical advice to Pakistan have failed to overcome the elite’s grip and have instead exacerbated it. Chinese energy and infrastructure investments in Pakistan have done little to provide much-needed microeconomic stimulus. It seems unlikely that profit-driven investment by the Gulf kingdoms will provide meaningful opportunities for ordinary Pakistanis or help stabilize the economy and maintain a shaky coalition government.
About $5 billion worth of investment opportunities can be found in various sectors. A $5 billion edible oil joint venture is also being speculated about. Although these projects promise a lot, the actual extent of Saudi investment in Pakistan will be confirmed if the funds begin to flow. Despite several announcements about Saudi plans to invest in a $10 billion oil refinery in the deep-sea port city of Gwadar, there is little evidence to indicate that the plan will be implemented.
Despite positive economic indicators such as reduced inflation and increased foreign reserves, Pakistan faces challenges in achieving sustainable growth amidst a high debt-to-GDP ratio and substantial debt servicing costs. The country aims to attract more foreign investment, particularly through initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, despite administrative hurdles and security concerns.
Like China and the USA before them, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates see their economic investments in Pakistan as tools to achieve foreign policy goals. Both countries are emerging as key players in the multipolar world system, part of a group of middle powers that are becoming increasingly assertive globally. They use their financial power to leverage advantages in strategically important regions such as South Asia. Nuclear powers like India and Pakistan are also looking to expand their ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia to diversify their investor base and reduce vulnerability to great power machinations.
India, with its huge market and rapidly growing economy, is an attractive partner for foreign investors. Meanwhile, the Pakistani establishment and ruling elite continue to leverage their strategic and personal ties with the Gulf States to attract investment. The Sharif government has expressed a preference for co-investment from Gulf companies rather than acquiring additional loans, aiming to strengthen the country’s economy and put it on a more sustainable footing.
Investors from the Gulf States appear to be interested in higher yield, lower risk returns rather than long-term investments in Pakistan. Potential investments from Saudi Arabia and the UAE could provide the government with much-needed revenue. Pakistan has established a Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to promote FDI and increase investor confidence. The SIFC was created after the fall of Imran Khan’s government in June 2023, when the military establishment began consolidating its already significant influence in the country’s political economy. While the Prime Minister chairs this high-level committee, the armed forces are also represented, along with several federal and provincial ministers and relevant bureaucrats. The military justifies its involvement in the council, as it did with the earlier Special Authority to Accelerate Chinese Investment in Pakistan, on the basis that it needs to ensure the protection of foreign investors.
The military’s direct intervention in economic affairs is troubling to many who are unhappy with Pakistan’s prevailing hybrid governance model, which consists of post-colonial, unrepresentative and authoritarian state institutions. These institutions, along with the elites, rule over marginalized people who depend on their patronage.
Unfortunately, decades of US aid and technical advice to Pakistan have failed to overcome the elite’s grip and have instead exacerbated it. Chinese energy and infrastructure investments in Pakistan have done little to provide much-needed microeconomic stimulus. It seems unlikely that profit-driven investment by the Gulf kingdoms will provide meaningful opportunities for ordinary Pakistanis or help stabilize the economy and maintain a shaky coalition government.
Our greatest asset
By: Abdul Basit Alvi | July 09, 2024
In the current situation in Pakistan, youth can play a significant role by offering innovative ideas to help the government navigate the financial crises and progress toward improvement. Innovation has always been recognized as the engine driving progress and development. In every corner of the world, visionary individuals have ignited transformative changes through their creative ideas and entrepreneurial zeal. Within the context of nation-building, the contributions of youth in generating innovative solutions are particularly invaluable. Empowering young minds to propose and implement innovative ideas not only fosters a culture of creativity but also serves as a catalyst for positive change and national advancement.
Youth possess a distinct perspective and a natural inclination toward innovation. Unbound by conventional thinking, they approach challenges with fresh perspectives and a readiness to challenge the status quo. The innovative ideas conceived by youth, ranging from utilizing technology to address societal challenges to pioneering novel approaches in governance and policymaking, possess the potential to redefine the course of nations. A key strategy in harnessing the creative energy of youth involves establishing platforms and initiatives that foster ideation and collaboration. Events like hackathons, innovation challenges, and incubator programs provide young innovators with the necessary resources, mentorship, and networking opportunities to realize their ideas. By cultivating an ecosystem conducive to innovation, governments and organizations can tap into the latent talent of youth and unleash a wave of transformative solutions.
Youth-led innovation holds significant promise in tackling a myriad of socio-economic challenges confronting nations today. Whether it’s combating unemployment through entrepreneurship endeavors, revolutionizing healthcare delivery via telemedicine and digital health solutions, or promoting sustainable agricultural practices to ensure food security, youth possess the capacity to drive substantial impact across diverse sectors. In an increasingly digital landscape, access to education and information is pivotal for empowering individuals and propelling socio-economic progress. Youth-driven initiatives aimed at expanding access to quality education, leveraging technology for skill development, and advocating for digital literacy can bridge the digital divide and empower marginalized communities, thus paving the way for a more equitable and inclusive society.
The imperative to address climate change and environmental degradation demands innovative solutions that prioritize sustainability and conservation. Youth-led movements advocating for the adoption of renewable energy, waste management initiatives, and conservation efforts are galvanizing awareness and mobilizing action at the grassroots level. By harnessing the passion and vigor of youth, countries can expedite the transition toward a greener and more sustainable future.
Youth engagement in governance processes is indispensable for nurturing inclusive and accountable governance. Innovative approaches such as participatory budgeting, citizen engagement platforms, and digital democracy tools empower youth to actively participate in decision-making processes and hold leaders accountable. By amplifying youth voices in policymaking, countries can ensure that policies are responsive to the needs and aspirations of future generations.
When contemplating the role of Pakistan, questions often arise regarding its creation and the contributions of its institutions, particularly the military. Some disillusioned or frustrated individuals may voice grievances, questioning the actions of the country and its armed forces. However, in civilized societies, ethical considerations underpin every action, discouraging profanity and baseless accusations. Strict laws against defamation and unsupported claims serve to uphold integrity and discourage unwarranted attacks. Regrettably, our society often overlooks ethical values, fostering a culture of gossip, slander, and unfounded allegations. This pervasive behavior extends to various spheres, including politics, where self-interest often overrides tolerance and mutual respect.
In Islam, love and respect for religion are paramount duties, followed by a similar reverence for the country. Matters such as monotheism and belief in the finality of prophethood are held without question, underscoring the significance of unwavering faith. Similarly, love for the country occupies a revered position, emphasizing the importance of loyalty and devotion to the nation. Adhering to the constitution and laws of the country is not just a requirement but a fundamental aspect of any civilized society.
The armed forces are entrusted with safeguarding the ideological borders of the nation. The Pakistan Army stands out globally as one of the finest forces, owing to the patriotism, professionalism, and unwavering sacrifices of its courageous personnel. Their commitment ensures that our beloved country is respected and protected. The gallant soldiers, sacrificing their rest for our peace and security, rightfully earn the title of heroes. Whether it’s the Army, Navy, or Air Force, those valiantly defending our longest and most challenging ideological frontiers epitomize bravery and honor. Our military intelligence agency also stands as a formidable deterrent to our adversaries.
The Pakistan Army has rendered invaluable services in safeguarding both our external and ideological borders as well as tackling internal threats. The nation acknowledges and appreciates the efforts and sacrifices of the Pakistan Army, which have contributed significantly to the eradication of terrorism and extremism, leading to an improved situation. Moreover, the Pakistan Army consistently takes the lead in responding to natural disasters and aiding the affected.
Their contributions extend beyond security to include preserving our national assets, maintaining law and order, supporting healthcare and education, and infrastructure development. Without the transparent conduct of censuses and elections facilitated by the
Pakistan Army’s participation and selfless cooperation, such crucial national processes would be challenging.
Indeed, the Pakistan Army serves as a beacon of hope in a nation grappling with corruption and terrorism. However, it’s essential to acknowledge that the weight of patriotism is shared among all segments of society. Developed countries often demonstrate full moral support for their armed forces, understanding the symbiotic relationship between the military and the people they protect. While freedom of expression is paramount in civilized societies, even in developed nations, certain limitations exist, prohibiting disparaging remarks against religion, country, and armed forces.
Unfortunately, in Pakistan, there’s a trend of targeting religion, country, and armed forces under the guise of freedom of expression, particularly through social media channels. It’s disheartening that some intellectuals remain silent on pressing issues like corruption, inflation, and unemployment while directing unwarranted criticism toward religion, country, and armed forces.
It falls upon the state to enact and enforce strict regulations to curb such irrational behavior, which does not represent the views of the broader youth population. This culture of disparagement is detrimental to the nation’s larger interests. A resolute stance should be taken against hate speech, baseless accusations, and false narratives targeting religion, Pakistan, and the Pakistan Army.
Pakistan, with its sizable youth demographic, stands at a pivotal moment in its history. The youth embody a potent force, brimming with talent, creativity, and latent potential. Recognizing the imperative to harness this demographic dividend, efforts to empower youth and drive socio-economic development are gaining momentum. Across education, entrepreneurship, innovation, and civic engagement, Pakistan’s youth are poised to shape the nation’s future positively. The youth of Pakistan embody a potent force, teeming with talent, creativity, and boundless potential. In recent years, there has been a growing acknowledgment of the imperative to tap into this demographic dividend by offering meaningful avenues for youth empowerment and socio-economic advancement. From education and entrepreneurship to innovation and civic engagement, the array of opportunities available to Pakistani youth is both diverse and promising.
Education stands as the cornerstone of progress and development, with a pivotal role in unleashing the potential of Pakistan’s youth. Prioritizing investments in quality education, initiatives aimed at enhancing access, improving teaching standards, and fostering skill development are crucial for equipping youth with the necessary knowledge and capabilities to thrive in a competitive global landscape. Furthermore, addressing gender disparities in education and ensuring universal access are essential steps toward fostering inclusivity and societal mobility.
Entrepreneurship has emerged as a significant driver of economic growth and employment generation in Pakistan. With a burgeoning startup ecosystem and a burgeoning appetite for innovation, youth have ample opportunities to venture into entrepreneurship and transform their ideas into successful enterprises. Government-led initiatives such as the Prime Minister’s Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme and various incubation programs provide vital support, mentorship, and financial assistance to aspiring entrepreneurs, enabling them to overcome barriers and realize their entrepreneurial aspirations.
The rapid pace of digitization and technological advancements presents unprecedented opportunities for Pakistani youth. From software development and digital marketing to e-commerce and freelancing, the digital economy offers a plethora of avenues for youth to leverage their skills and talents. Initiatives focused on promoting digital literacy, expanding internet access, and establishing innovation hubs empower youth to utilize technology for socio-economic advancement and job creation.
Active engagement in civic and social initiatives is pivotal for driving positive change and cultivating a culture of participatory citizenship among youth. Youth-led organizations, volunteer programs, and advocacy campaigns play a vital role in addressing critical issues such as social inequality, environmental sustainability, and human rights. By mobilizing youth around common causes and providing platforms for civic participation, Pakistan can nurture a generation of socially conscious leaders committed to building a fairer and more equitable society.
International exposure and cross-cultural exchanges offer valuable learning opportunities and open doors to a world of possibilities for Pakistani youth. Scholarships, exchange programs, and youth ambassador initiatives provide avenues for youth to study abroad, participate in cultural exchanges, and collaborate with peers from diverse backgrounds. These experiences broaden horizons, impart valuable skills, perspectives, and networks, ultimately fostering personal and professional growth.
In these challenging times, active involvement, especially from the youth, is essential for advancing the betterment and progress of our nation. It is imperative that the youth of Pakistan remain resilient and engage in constructive and innovative endeavors. We anticipate that this challenging period will eventually pass, providing our vital youth with enhanced opportunities for growth and development.
Structural adjustment programs: Impact on Pakistan’s economy
By:
Muhtasim Afridi | July 09, 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) serves as the backbone for underdeveloped economies around the globe. In times of recession, the international lender provides financial support in the form of loans or bailout packages to help countries stand on their feet. However, when any state seeks an IMF loan, it must adhere to given reforms called structural adjustment programs. Similarly, when the government of Pakistan visits the IMF for a loan, the ruling party has to agree on certain conditions to get it approved. But in that way Pakistan (just like other states receiving loans from the organization) let the IMF decide its foreign policy.
Pakistan and the IMF always had a rocky relationship throughout history, characterized by many ups and downs. Very rarely, the country is found to meet the IMF deadline successfully, in most cases it fails to do so – given the poor economic activity. The condition of Pakistan’s economy can be well understood by the fact that whenever a new party holds power, its first plan is to get an IMF loan – “first things first”. In return for a loan, the top leadership has to sacrifice its key decisions. To put it, “the sovereignty of any nation is compromised the moment it lets others make its decisions.”
The newly formed government, Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N), seeks to negotiate the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) with the IMF in a move to avert default, which may consist of at least $6 billion US dollars. While its approval remains unclear, this bailout package from the international lender will mark the 24thterm for the country, leading to further burdening of debt. While it might bring some optimism into the air, it is quite hard to predict a bright future for Pakistan’s economy – given the impact of IMF’s structural adjustment programs on the country’s domestic and foreign policies.
In past regimes, the set of reforms suggested by the IMF under structural adjustment programs has brought little improvement in terms of tax revenue; nevertheless, it did not serve the interest of Pakistan at large – given that the country has needs and problems other than the Western nations. Pakistan is in dire need of introducing technical equipment in industries, such as heavy machinery used for boosting processes; however, high taxes on such imports, as suggested by the IMF, slow the development of the technical sector. It ultimately limits Pakistan’s relations with the developed states (China, Italy, Germany) that produce machinery – heavy tariffs on imports directly affect the trade volume.
Contrary to that, the government of Pakistan provides subsidies to the agricultural sector, which might help in ensuring food security but it adds little to the economy because food products are cheap in the international market, hence they do not generate revenue comparably higher than the technological goods. In contemporary times, everything is based on technology – the developed states are thriving because they have machinery and produce electronic or digital products that are high in demand and price. Pakistan needs a strong technological base to generate revenue and increase trade with other states.
Moreover, high tariffs on vehicles greatly impact Pakistan’s trade relations. The country imports cars from Japan, China, Indonesia, Thailand, and South Korea. Each household, including the elite class and the middle-class families in particular, demands a vehicle. Now, increased taxes on such imports surge the final cost for the citizens, ultimately testing their buying power. The wealthy class in Pakistan has the purchasing power to buy vehicles; however, for the middle class, it becomes difficult to meet the sky-high prices. Therefore, they go for alternative means rather than buying expensive cars, which eventually decreases Pakistan’s trade volume and consequently weakens foreign policy towards other states.
Another major setback for Pakistan’s economy is the long-delayed Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, which otherwise would have fulfilled the energy needs of the country at a very low cost and would have further contributed to increased trade volume between the two neighbours. Both Muslim majorities observe peaceful relations in terms of trade; however, the project is stalled due to the cloud of embargoes on Iran. Despite US sanctions on Iran, the country is all set to commence the project and the ball is now in the court of Pakistan. The US, being the greatest contributor to the IMF, would never allow Pakistan to proceed with the project. However, if Pakistan does that, it might not receive further bailout packages from the international lender, which would bring Pakistan to the brink of default.
Pakistan does make independent choices on certain occasions; however, the country does not enjoy full authority over its key decisions – given its huge dependence on international lender. In such a globalized world, states are trying to attract Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), such as investment by Multi-National Corporations (MNCs) – they serve as a means to strengthen foreign policy, but due to high taxes imposed on corporations by the government, they do not operate in Pakistan. In essence, the structural adjustment programs revolve around taxes as a means to generate revenue; however, this is not a sustainable economic model, the country needs to have policies of its own, and it must know its priorities to get out of the vicious cycle of loans.
Power of Data for Inspired Leadership
By: Dr Luay Shabaneh | July 09, 2024
Recently, I met with all four honorable Chief Ministers in Pakistan to discuss the population agenda and family planning matters. We engaged in candid and direct conversations about the urgent need for a championing leadership to make a breakthrough toward positive change. Two shared takeaways emerged during the discussions; on the one hand, there is a recognized urgency to align population growth with available resources, and willingness to take the lead. However, on the other hand, the capability of the public machinery to enact the vision of CMs is hindered by various bureaucratic complications and a lack of sound scientific foundation for assessment exacerbated by a lack of access to timely disaggregated necessary statistical data.
To bridge this gap between visionary leadership at the senior level and practical implementation, especially at the sub-national levels, the availability of reliable, complete, and comprehensive data is essential. Effective leadership in addressing population issues hinges on a foundation of accurate, disaggregated, and timely information. Without such data, the ambitious visions of leadership are hindered by insufficient or inaccurate information and lack of evidence-based knowledge which undermines informed decision-making and strategic planning. Data is the unsung hero propelling progress. While the senior leadership across the country broadly agrees on the ‘what’ part of the problems and challenges around population, women, and youth agenda, there is a significant divergence in the interpretation of the root causes and the ‘how’ part of possible solutions. This divergence stems from the inadequacy of timely and disaggregated data which hampers the analysis that builds common ground for diagnosis and potential future scenarios.
This situation in Pakistan resonates with the global theme of this year’s World Population Day (WPD) on July 11 - to embrace the power of inclusive data towards a resilient and equitable future for all. Data is a duty for the government to collect, analyze, and disseminate, a right for people to access, a prerequisite for sound planning, an instrumental tool for monitoring, and a catalyst for meaningful debate on critical socioeconomic and political issues. In her statement marking the WPD, the Executive Director of UNFPA said that for humanity to progress, people must be counted, wherever they are and whoever they are – in all their diversity. To end inequality, to find and grow peace and prosperity, and to weave more threads of hope, the world needs to do more for inclusion. Those who go uncounted are made invisible and, as a result, left unserved. This is particularly true for many elderly women and young girls in Pakistan, especially in remote areas. Invisibility extends beyond people, to the issues that profoundly impact the lives they lead. For instance, the absence of a gender-responsive data system results in decision-making that is gender-blind, and consequently, the interventions are less effective, and the intended outcomes cannot be reached.
Ensuring gender-sensitive data is crucial for progress. While the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) inspired significant progress in women’s access to reproductive care, reductions in maternal deaths, and strides towards gender equality, there remains a substantial journey ahead. A recent OECD report reveals that less than 44% of working-age women participate in the paid workforce across Asia and the Pacific. Women dedicate at least 4 times more time than men to unpaid care and domestic work and are more likely to be employed in informal or vulnerable jobs that offer fewer rights and lower wages. Additionally, violence against women and girls remains a troubling reality in the region experiencing the highest number of femicides by intimate partners or family members. Conflict, natural disasters, economic instability, and the emerging impacts of climate change further exacerbate these setbacks in achieving gender equality.
World Population Day 2024 presents an opportunity for Pakistan to reflect on who and what remains uncounted and why. It is a moment to assess issues and disaggregation levels still missing from official statistics – and to consider the costs – both to individuals and society, to leave no one behind. Let us offer Pakistan - its provinces, communities, policymakers, and data producers - the opportunity to introspect whether they ask the right questions, is the data collection is safe for all people, and who is still uncounted and unaccounted for. This examination may shape the conversation around what the data systems in Pakistan should look like, and how the national statistical system should function for a brighter future for all Pakistanis.
Data collection and analysis tools in Pakistan, especially in the provinces, are in urgent need of improvement to help achieve the vision of the Chief Ministers (CMs) and senior leadership. Leadership involved in data management and dissemination is often hesitant to bold shifts due to concerns around exposing information gaps and potential risks, including the misrepresentation or misuse of data, however, the cost of keeping data inaccessible is much higher. Prioritizing investments in population data systems, ensuring data collection is safe, and guaranteeing the quality and accessibility for use, are essential for informing and driving the desired positive change. New and innovative data tools can illuminate previously invisible issues and paint the full picture of people’s experiences and needs.
UNFPA analysis highlights a compelling return on investment in data systems suggesting that every dollar invested yields $32 in economic benefits. To fully harness the transformative potential of population data, the United Nations suggests a significant increase in domestic funding for data and statistics- by 50 percent by 2030. The UN also urges the donors to raise the share of official development assistance for data to at least 0.7 percent by 2030. Pakistan stands to gain by prioritizing the improvements in the data systems and quality. It is crucial to ensure that the statistical experts ask the right questions and that the data is gender-responsive, timely, and accessible to all. Statistical systems should serve as the frontline reconnaissance soldier who explores the challenges and opportunities; not the historian who documents what already took place. It is a moment for leadership towards reforms for a better future.
A POPULATION BOOM
By: Wallia Khairi | July 09, 2024
In the bustling streets, amid the cacophony of honking horns and the vibrant colours of street vendors, lies a microcosm of Pakistan’s population conundrum. With over 220 million people, Pakistan stands as the world’s fifth-most populous country, and its demographics are as diverse as its sceneries.
World Population Day, observed annually on July 11th, serves as a reminder of the challenges and opportunities associated with global population dynamics. It provides an opportunity to raise awareness about population issues and advocate for policies and programmes that promote reproductive health, gender equality, and sustainable development. In the context of Pakistan, World Population Day holds particular significance due to the country’s large and rapidly growing population.
Karachi, Pakistan’s largest city, is a metropolis where the old and new coexist in a sometimes chaotic harmony. Skyscrapers rise next to historic buildings, and modern shopping malls stand alongside traditional markets. The city’s energy is palpable, driven by its diverse and rapidly growing population. “Life here is fast-paced and full of opportunities,” says Maria, a young entrepreneur running a small tech start-up. “But it’s also incredibly challenging. The competition is fierce, and the cost of living is high.”
In the bustling bazaars, vendors hawk everything from fresh produce to handmade crafts, their stalls adorned with a riot of colours. The scent of street food wafts through the air, mingling with the salty breeze from the Arabian Sea.
Rapid urbanisation in the city exacerbates the population challenge. Millions flock to cities like these in search of economic opportunities, swelling their already bursting seams. The result is sprawling slums, where makeshift dwellings stretch as far as the eye can see, and basic amenities like clean water and sanitation remain elusive dreams for many.
“Finding a decent job is hard enough, but getting a place to live is even harder,” says Bilal, who moved to Karachi from a rural area. “We live in cramped conditions, but we have to make do.”
Venture into the heart of Lahore, the cultural capital, and you’ll find many faces, each telling a story of its own. From elderly men clad in traditional shalwar kameez, sipping on steaming cups of chai, to tech-savvy youth engrossed in their smartphones, the population here spans generations and experiences. Known for its history and cultural heritage, Lahore is a city where the past and present intertwine. The city is a hub of education, art, and literature, attracting people from all over the country. Its population, a blend of ethnicities and cultures, reflects the complex social fabric of Pakistan.
Urban migration has led to the creation of sprawling informal settlements where living conditions are dire. Overcrowded housing, lack of sanitation, and limited access to clean water and healthcare create a breeding ground for diseases and social issues. Despite these challenges, the promise of better economic opportunities keeps drawing people to the cities.
In the remote northern regions, the backdrop is as harsh as it is beautiful. Snow-capped peaks and lush valleys define the terrain, and the people who live here are as resilient as the mountains themselves. The communities are tight-knit, bound by tradition and a deep connection to the land. Life is challenging, with limited access to modern amenities, but there is a sense of contentment and pride in their self-sufficiency.
But in the rural hinterlands, where access to family planning services is limited, the population explosion is particularly pronounced. Families often have numerous children, viewing them as a source of labour and security in old age. However, this cultural norm clashes with the harsh realities of poverty, leading to overcrowded households struggling to make ends meet. “In the rural areas, we often see families with six or seven children,” notes Saira, a social worker. “Access to family planning services is limited, and there’s still a lot of cultural resistance.”
Pakistan faces the daunting challenge of managing its population growth. With a fertility rate of over 3.5 births per woman, the country’s population is projected to exceed 300 million by 2050 if current trends persist. This rapid growth places immense pressure on already strained resources, from healthcare and education to infrastructure and employment.
“Education and healthcare are key,” says Shazia, an NGO worker focusing on women’s health. “Empowering women and giving them choices about their reproductive health can make a huge difference.”
The National Population & Housing Census 2023 reported that Pakistan’s population had reached 241.5 million, with an average yearly increase of 2.55 per cent since 2017. Punjab recorded the highest population increase with 17.7 million, followed by Sindh with 7.8 million, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with 5.36 million, Balochistan with 2.55 million, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) with 0.36 million.
“Each region has its unique challenges and needs,” explains Dr Malik, a regional health officer. “A one-size-fits-all approach won’t work. We need to tailor our strategies to each area’s specific context.”
Tackling Population Growth
Pakistan’s population has experienced rapid growth over the past few decades. In the mid-20th century, the population was relatively modest, but since then, it has grown exponentially. Factors contributing to this growth include high fertility rates, improved healthcare leading to lower mortality rates, and limited access to family planning services in certain regions.
“Family planning is still a sensitive topic here,” says Saima, a midwife in a rural health centre. “Many women don’t have the freedom to make decisions about their own bodies.”
Despite efforts to address these issues, Pakistan faces several challenges in achieving sustainable population management. Cultural and religious beliefs continue to pose barriers to family planning, and disparities in access to healthcare and education persist, particularly in rural and remote areas.
As Pakistan charts its course into the future, addressing its population crescendos will be paramount. Empowering women, expanding access to education and healthcare, and promoting sustainable development are crucial steps towards achieving a balanced demographic environment. Only then can Pakistan harness the full potential of its people and chart a path towards a brighter, more prosperous future.
In addition to these challenges, the high population growth rate in Pakistan poses several socio-economic issues. The pressure on resources such as water, land, and food is immense. Rapid urbanisation and agricultural expansion lead to environmental degradation and resource depletion, exacerbating poverty and inequality.
“The strain on our natural resources is evident,” notes Dr Farooq, an environmental scientist. “We must adopt sustainable practices to ensure that our growth does not come at the cost of our environment.”
Meeting the needs of a growing population strains infrastructure systems such as transportation, healthcare, and education. Inadequate infrastructure impedes economic growth and reduces the quality of life for many Pakistanis.
“Our infrastructure is struggling to keep up,” says Amina, a city planner. “We need significant investments to build resilient and sustainable cities.”
The youth bulge, with a significant proportion of the population under the age of 30, presents both opportunities and challenges. While youth can be a demographic dividend, the lack of educational and employment opportunities for young people contributes to social unrest and economic challenges.
“Our young people are our greatest asset,” says Imran, a youth activist. “But we need to provide them with the skills and opportunities to thrive.”
Empower, Educate, Elevate
The Pakistani government has implemented various policies and interventions to address population growth and promote family planning. Family planning programmes aim to increase access to contraceptive services and raise awareness about the benefits of smaller family sizes.
“We need to break the stigma around family planning,” says Zainab, a reproductive health educator. “It’s about giving people control over their own lives.”
Efforts to improve women’s education and economic empowerment are critical in addressing population growth. Educated women are more likely to make informed reproductive choices and participate in the workforce, contributing to economic development.
“Education is the key to empowerment,” emphasises Nadia, a local school teacher. “When women are educated, they can make better choices for themselves and their families.”
Improving healthcare services, particularly maternal and child health, is essential for reducing fertility rates and improving overall well-being. Access to quality healthcare ensures that women and children receive the care they need, leading to healthier families and communities.
Promoting gender equality and women’s rights is fundamental to addressing population issues. Empowering women to make decisions about their reproductive health and participate fully in society is crucial for achieving sustainable development.
“Gender equality is not just a women’s issue,” argues Saba, a human rights activist. “It’s about creating a fair and just society for everyone.”
The Pakistani government must also address the social and cultural barriers that hinder the adoption of family planning practices. Community engagement and education campaigns can help shift cultural norms and increase acceptance of family planning.
“Changing mind-sets takes time,” says Tariq, a community leader. “But with persistent effort, we can create a more supportive environment for family planning.”
Collaboration with international organisations and NGOs is vital for addressing population challenges. These partnerships can provide technical expertise, funding, and innovative solutions to support Pakistan’s efforts in managing its population growth.
“There’s no single solution,” says Professor Khan, a demographer. “We need a comprehensive strategy that addresses the root causes of population growth and promotes sustainable development.”
Investing in human capital, particularly education and healthcare, is crucial for ensuring that Pakistan’s population growth becomes a driver of development rather than a hindrance. By prioritising the well-being and empowerment of its people, Pakistan can harness the potential of its population to build a prosperous and sustainable future.
India’s Shining Economic Story or Smoke and Mirrors?
By: Rakhshanda Mehtab | July 08, 2024
India has created a buzz of ‘Shining India’ in the whole world, for the past several years and is being portrayed as the world’s largest developing economic power through a global propaganda campaign by Indian governments, particularly the Modi administration.
In 2023. the Indian administration worked hard to paint a positive picture of the country’s economic situation before the esteemed G20 conference. Nevertheless, a more thorough analysis of the information shows a far more complicated and worrisome reality, which the authorities concealed.
India is the second most populous country in the world, therefore compared to less populated nations, even a small increase in the middle class appears to be more noticeable there. Even if the financial situation of a few crore Indians has improved, a far larger number of individuals still endure terrible and abject poverty. There are no indications that their circumstances will change anytime soon, given the state of affairs as it stands.
A close examination of India’s GDP growth during the past few years paints an unsatisfactory image. The country’s growth rate has been 3.5% on average since the COVID-19 pandemic, except for a brief acceleration in mid-2022. The extreme discrepancy between this and their more optimistic measures raises questions about the reliability of the government’s economic assessments.
As privileged Indians spend more on opulent products abroad, the masses cannot afford necessities.
The most recent report from the Indian National Statistical Office serves as an example. It demonstrates that between April and June, production revenue grew at an annual rate of 7.8%, while expenses increased by just 1.4%.
India’s growth rate decreases from 7.8% to 4.5% when utilising a composite measure, which is the average of income and spending, comparable to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis approach.
In contrast to worldwide best practices, the NSO considers income data to be more credible than expenditure data. Both revenue and expenses should be taken into account in proper economic assessments.
Furthermore, the data indicates worrying patterns in employment and income inequality. As privileged Indians spend more on opulent products abroad, the masses cannot afford necessities, and increased import goods in domestic expenditure reflects expanding inequality. India is not providing enough jobs, especially those that offer a decent standard of living, as evidenced by the fact that the majority of the country’s economic growth is centred on industries with little employment.
Of India’s 132 crore inhabitants, almost 80 crore are impoverished. Approximately 10 crore of these are extremely poor. These numbers went up to 92 crores after the Corona disaster. Rural regions are the most common places for widespread poverty. Almost 30% of them earn less than $1.25 every day, which is not enough for one meal and a startling 68% of them survive on less than $2 every day.
Many of these destitute people live in large city slums where they are unable to access basic amenities like healthcare and education as well as clean drinking water. Millions of Indians sleep on the streets every night.
These poor urban infrastructures cause most people, especially children, to suffer from fatal ailments. In India, 1.4 million children do not make it to their fifth birthday each year. According to UNICEF, 25% of children in India do not have access to an education.
In addition, India has the highest rate of malnutrition in the world, with over 20 million people lacking access to enough food. Only 6 per cent of Indians have access to tap water. The unemployment rate had been rising even before Corona. Due to Corona, almost 12 crore people lost their jobs in March 2020 alone.
The condition of the manufacturing sector, which employs a large number of people in emerging countries, is another matter of concern. Notwithstanding government initiatives to promote “Make in India,” the manufacturing sector remains weak mainly due to low local demand caused by severe inequality and a lack of competitiveness in international markets.
India, the world’s most cruel state, is fixated on asserting its grip over the region. The Indian government continues to lose a lot of its revenue on needless defence expenditures, rather than concentrating on improving social amenities and addressing poverty and other economic issues.
The enormous amount of money being spent on defence could help millions of Indians escape abject poverty. India has budgeted about 71 billion dollars for defence spending for this fiscal year. Due to its tense relations with its neighbours and its fixation on having military superiority over them, India is employing severe military tactics and compelling its neighbours to make disproportionate financial investments in their security.
Based on data from the Swedish organisation Spree, India is currently the third-largest defence spender in the world, after the US and China. India has spent 260% more on defence during the past 30 years.
India has a long way to go in becoming the world’s most powerful nation politically, but first, it must achieve prosperity. To achieve peace in the region and establish economic prosperity in the world’s most populous region, India must give up its ambition of being the dominant force in regional defence and instead focus its limited national resources on the economic development of its people and the reduction of poverty.
Pakistan’s Foreign Policy and USA
By: Najm us Saqib | July 08, 2024
Understanding Pakistan’s relations with the US was never easy. Now you see it, now you don’t. However, looking through the prism of America’s National Security Strategy, every move that Washington has made - particularly after 9/11 could be easily understood. At home, all one needs to do is to understand the nature of the Pak-US relationship; revisit some of the established principles of international relations, and accept certain hardcore facts including mistakes of the past. This process of understanding is also essential to address frequent disappointments or eliminate the element of surprise especially when an apparently disturbing development takes place in Washington involving Islamabad.
Relationships with a superpower can never be on an equal footing unless another superpower is firmly behind you – decisively and permanently or you are economically and militarily strong enough to face the music without collapsing as a nation-state. To venture into Ukraine or to evacuate Gaza, you must be Russia or Israel respectively. To maintain a neutral stand on the Ukraine war, you must be at least India which could take care of its economic and military needs on its own or through available multiple sources. That does not mean Pakistan should have taken sides openly. This is where real diplomacy comes into play.
In realpolitik, the concept of alliances fizzles out the moment diplomacy fails, and a war-like situation arises. The US and the EU are not likely to go beyond issuing strong statements or sending funds and ammunition to Ukraine even if the Russian Special Operation continues for another decade. Hence, to expect that the US or for that matter China will be directly and decisively involved in any future military conflict in South Asia is at best - wishful thinking. In such an eventuality, both will be urging the warring states to show restraint, stop fighting, and address issues amicably. The lesson? Carrying your cross on your own shoulders, you will have to fight your battles yourself.
International relations are driven by a country’s own national interest. Emotions have nothing to do with formulating a foreign policy. The dynamics, requirements, and objectives of relations between two nation-states are totally different from friendships between two persons. Expressing disappointments is a human predicament or at critical junctures, a diplomatic requirement. The leadership stands ready to ‘respond’ correspondingly instead of screaming, crying, or complaining. Secondly, a promise made in international relations is nothing more than a goodwill gesture made at a given space and time. Even agreements and treaties signed, sealed, and delivered can be overlooked when it comes to promoting your national interest.
An agreement lasts until it suits all concerned. For instance, the Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, under which Ukraine agreed to transfer nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination; succeeded in a way because it suited the interests of all concerned. On the other hand, as entering militarily into the Ukraine war does not suit the West, no one desires to expand the scope of the 1997 NATO-Ukraine-Distinctive Partnership or to go beyond consultations in the NATO-Ukraine Council. Hence, in international relations, the nation-states would do what works - and not necessarily what was agreed upon.
In furthering its national interest, if it had suited the United States of America - the land of the pure and its resources would be utilized to counter Moscow’s ‘expansionist’ designs or in the war on terror. During this honeymoon period, Pakistani leadership would savor American hospitality as well as the fragrance of a few greenbacks. Even in these happy hours, the smaller country should refrain from considering itself as an ‘equal partner’. The jargon such as a ‘non-NATO major ally’ is used to patronize a smaller country whenever such a need arises. In real terms, it means nothing. Therefore, instead of urging the erstwhile ‘partners’ to continue showering their blessings on you, wisdom demands to go back to the drawing board and – at least learn how to react in the future if a similar situation arises. Meanwhile, there is no harm in knowing what a carrot and stick policy entails.
Third-world countries must not dream of having an independent foreign policy. To say ‘absolutely not’ to a superpower or verbally refuse to be a slave to the dictates of a superpower does not mean you have an independent foreign policy. These are hollow political statements issued mostly for domestic consumption without realizing its far-reaching ramifications. Similarly, to be in Moscow the day President Putin invaded Ukraine refusing to participate in the Biden-hosted First Summit of Democracies, or attend the Beijing Winter Olympics when the entire West had boycotted the event, are not manifestations of an independent foreign policy. These are knee-jerk reactions that were neither required nor advisable.
If Pakistan desires to have an independent foreign policy, it must produce an independent economy first. Come to think of it, if the EU or NATO follow suit and tow the American line in the Afghan conflict or the Ukraine war, does it mean that France and Germany don’t have independent foreign policies? In the realm of foreign policy, interdependence is the keyword.
Finally, it needs to be understood that a pro-China policy does not ipso facto mean an anti-US policy. Staying far from the dicey terrain of the Sino-US rivalry, Pakistan needs to do the basics first. Understanding what determines a country’s foreign policy may be the first step. The most notable determinants of a reasonably strong foreign policy are economic strength; military prowess; honest and accountable leadership; and an amenable geography - not necessarily in that order. As opposed to endeavoring for an independent foreign policy, countries like Pakistan may strive to have a respectable foreign policy instead. Even to achieve that, besides possessing military prowess, a stable economy and accountable leadership would be but essential.
False flag at critical junctures: Modi’s old playbook
By: Ahmed Ali | July 06, 2024
AT every critical point within India, our eastern neighbour resorts to staging a false flag operation to divert the attention of its domestic and worldwide audiences away from what is going on inside the country. Most of the time, Pakistan becomes the victim of India’s bellicosity. This trend has become increasingly apparent throughout the BJP’s leadership, particularly under Prime Minister Modi.
India has a history of staging false flag operations against Pakistan using disinformation campaigns in the media. So far, India has utilized false flag operations several times to escalate the situation, resulting in far-reaching ramifications for both countries. In recent history, the Ganga hijacking in 1971, the Indian parliament attack in 2001 that resulted in the Twin Peaks Crisis, the Godhra train burning in 2002, the Samjhauta Express bombings in 2007, the Mumbai attack in 2008, the Pathankot airbase attack in 2016, the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama suicide attack in 2019 have all had serious consequences for the two nuclear powers.
Interestingly, in 2023, Pakistan repeatedly warned the world about India’s planned false flag operations against it. In January 2023, two days before Indian Republic Day, Pakistan discovered an operation prepared by the Indian Army and police in the Poonch area of IIOJ&K. Pakistani security authorities even identified the protagonists as Bashir and two of his friends, Aalam and Aslam. A false flag operation was also attempted in April 2023, days before the G20 conference. The Modi dictatorship carried out false flag operations in Poonch on May 21, 2023, Islamabad on September 14, 2023 and Neelam on October 28, 2023. They blamed Pakistan for the incidents. On October 5, 2023, Indian media accused Pakistan of supporting the attack in Rajouri. In truth, an Indian Major had killed five Indian soldiers by fire. Similarly, in December 2023, when Indian troops were attacked at Sarankote, Poonch district, the Modi regime instantly blamed Pakistan, despite the area being 15 to 20 kilometers from the Line of Control (LoC). Following the incident, RAW’s bogus “X” accounts and biased media began condemning Pakistan without evidence.
In a similar recent incident, a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims to the Shiv Khori temple in the Reasi region of India-occupied Jammu and Kashmir plunged down a gorge, killing at least ten people and injuring many more. The accident occurred in Teryath village. According to Indian media, the bus was ambushed by unknown gunmen, leading the driver to lose control and the vehicle to plunge into the canyon. However, Indian media and officials soon blamed the incident on Pakistan, presenting it as an act of terrorism. This story, frequently observed in similar instances, raises suspicions of a false flag operation. The local Hurriyat leadership denounced the attacks and attributed them to Indian agencies aiming to undermine the indigenous movement for the right to self-determination. The newly formed BJP government seeking mass support and legitimacy after barely winning recent elections in a huge upset where the opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A got a surprisingly higher number of seats, provides political context to this false-flag operation.
The current BJP-led government has a history of violating human rights, particularly against Kashmiris, as well as other minorities around the country. They now have substantial claims concerning offshore death plots exposed by Canada, the United States, and Pakistan. To divert the world’s attention away from their atrocities and wrongdoings, the BJP-led government uses false flag operations and manufactured media hype to incite anti-Pakistan animosity. As a result, the target audience’s attention is diverted away from the government’s actual offenses.
However, this has been the norm, with voices from within India speaking out against the government on this topic. Satya Pal Malik, the former Governor of occupied Kashmir, and Ravish Kumar, a journalist, both stated that the Pulwama attack was a false flag operation and slammed the Modi government for it. The current anxieties are serious because the elections upset, a watershed moment in the country’s history in which the BJP keeps power for another term, may provide an opportunity for yet another false flag. It is especially relevant in the light of the Indian government’s international criticism for its extra-territorial killing schemes.
The Indian government, like any other, makes extensive use of media power to promote its self-created narrative. The Indian government and media are unique in that they operate without facts or investigation. They simply circulate the news and provide analysis without offering any true position. That occasionally deprives them of logic, but the dispersion is so widespread that it is registered with the audience. Furthermore, the government prohibits channels and sources that could reveal the other side of the story to the public. Notable individuals are used to manipulate public opinion away from facts and reasoning in order to lend credence to the news. However, all of this appears to be extremely uncivil.
It is hoped that India will deviate from its usual practice and take note of the complexities inherent in such blunders between the two nuclear neighbours. The existing Indian administration must seek popular support through performance and abandoning its extremist policies. It is hoped that India will move beyond its fixation with the false flag operation and establish a new normal.
Transforming Agriculture
By: Waleed Lal | July 06, 2024
Pakistan’s raw food exports have risen by 37 percent in the last financial year, which is good news for the country’s struggling economy. This boost is crucial as Pakistan faces a severe shortage of foreign exchange to cover import costs.
According to the Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), food exports increased from $5.8 billion to $8 billion in the first 11 months of the last fiscal year. The biggest surge was in rice exports, partly due to India banning its basmati rice exports to protect its domestic market. Other significant exports included raw meat, maize, spices, and fruit.
While the rise in food exports is beneficial for the economy and helps with the balance of payments, it also raises concerns about potential domestic shortages and increasing food prices in Pakistan. These worries are valid, as many consumers have been struggling with high living costs, particularly for food, over the past two years. Although inflation has slowed in recent months, food and essential items’ prices are still too high for many citizens.
To grow its economy and exports sustainably, Pakistan needs a significant boost in agricultural productivity.
To grow its economy and exports sustainably, Pakistan needs a significant boost in agricultural productivity and rural incomes. The agricultural sector, employing nearly 60 percent of the workforce and contributing significantly to GDP, is at a crucial juncture.
Despite its vast potential, the sector remains underdeveloped and vulnerable to climate change-induced weather extremes. There is a substantial productivity gap, indicating that agriculture could greatly enhance the national economy by increasing food and crop exports and reducing rural poverty. However, achieving these goals is nearly impossible without private sector involvement and investment in research, seed systems, and mechanization. Attracting corporate investments in agriculture requires decisive action from political leaders and policymakers, focusing on substantive policy changes and infrastructure development.
Corporate participation is crucial for managing challenges within the sector and unlocking its full potential, not only to boost farm exports but also to address domestic supply gaps and stabilize food prices over the long term.
Ripe Time to Promote Solarisation
By: Zahra Niazi | July 06, 2024
A shift towards solar power use has been taking place across Pakistan recently, as declining prices of solar panels, coupled with frequent hikes in electricity tariffs, have galvanised end-consumers to embrace solar solutions. However, this rapid pace of solarisation has sparked concerns within some policy-making circles. Speculations regarding policy changes affecting solar photovoltaic (PV) participants have increased in the past couple of months.
Concerns resurfaced more recently when the government halted approval of the ‘Solar Panel Local Manufacturing and Allied Equipment’ policy for the fourth time, reportedly due to a prevailing lack of consensus on whether to promote or discourage solarisation. This development came days after proposing to abolish import duty on the raw materials, machinery, and equipment to boost local production of solar panels, batteries, and inverters in the FY 2024-25 budget.
At the centre of those concerns lies the argument that a greater reliance on distributed solar power generation, such as on the rooftops or at industrial sites, has reduced the demand for traditional grid-based power.
Speculations regarding policy changes affecting solar photovoltaic participants have increased in the past couple of months.
As a result, the government’s idle capacity payments were rising, contributing to higher electricity tariffs for consumers to maintain revenue levels, and placing a fiscal burden on the exchequer. For context, the state’s contractual obligations with Independent Power Producers (IPPs) obligate it to make guaranteed capacity payments to them to maintain power generation capacity, irrespective of whether it receives electricity from them or not. The bill for these capacity charges is shared between the government through subsidy payments and power consumers through electricity bills.
However, any attempt to slow down the current pace of solarisation, instead of addressing the root cause of the capacity payment burden, will be a missed opportunity.
To many, installing an on-site solar generator seemed like a long-term ambition even half a decade ago. Solar energy systems were prohibitively expensive, making them a luxury accessible to only a few. But today, solar PV systems have become affordable for many more segments of society, if not all. From Rs 80 per watt in 2022, solar panel prices in Pakistan have dropped by more than half to Rs 37 per watt, following declining prices within the international market and bulk imports from China.
For reference, the import of solar panels in Pakistan rose from 2.8 Gigawatt (GW) in 2022 to 5 GW in 2023; and between January and December 2023, solar PV module spot prices in the international solar market dropped by almost 50 percent year-on-year.
Underlying this trend is the overproduction of clean energy technologies by Chinese firms following years of demand growth. The global solar market now faces a ‘supply glut,’ where the supply of solar equipment and technologies, particularly solar panels, has exceeded demand.
The International Energy Agency predicts that, in the coming years, the dynamics of oversupply will continue to depress solar panel prices, and global solar panel supply may reach a level three times more than demand by the end of the current year.
Under this context, the only rational decision is to facilitate solarisation by harnessing the opportunities offered by the current dynamics within the solar market. The 17 percent General Sales Tax (GST) waiver on imported solar panels, implemented in 2022, was a pragmatic move and must be maintained. Strategies should also be pursued to minimise avoidable import costs, such as streamlining and improving customs procedures and clearances or reviewing the import routes and modes of transportation, among others. Any market manipulation of domestic prices must be regulated to ensure that the price benefits are passed on to consumers.
Additionally, surplus domestic supply due to the opportunity for bulk imports can be capitalised on to expand initiatives to offer free-of-cost solar PV systems to economically disadvantaged segments of society, as being planned by Punjab and Sindh governments, or to boost renewable energy usage in the agricultural sector, such as by extending the agri-tube-well solarisation project. Simultaneously, determined efforts are also needed to develop the domestic solar equipment manufacturing industry centred on innovation and technological advancement.
The heavy burden of fixed capacity payments to IPPs has been a long-standing issue and requires sustainable solutions rather than short-term fixes. A policy shift is needed to foster a competitive electricity market, allowing market dynamics to determine the development and growth of power generation capacities. Available generation capacity can be utilised by addressing transmission and distribution inadequacies and channelling unutilised capacity into other productive activities (eg, expanding electric vehicles (EV) charging infrastructure capacities to boost electric mobility before a large-scale solar PV charging infrastructure can be deployed).
Pakistan’s current energy systems are not just unsustainable and environmentally unfriendly but also a source of chronic energy crises. Furthermore, as the world moves towards renewable energy sources due to the impacts of a rapidly warming planet, solar needs to become an indispensable part of the country’s energy security mix. Any attempt to slow down the current pace of solarisation will only delay the inevitable while pushing Pakistan behind in the global shift towards a cleaner, cheaper, and sustainable future.
Operation Istehkam-e-Pakistan
By: Dr Saif ur Rehman | July 06, 2024
Finally, Pakistan’s top civilian and military leadership opted to launch the Istehkam-e-Pakistan operation amid the country’s deteriorating security situation. But without eradication of the mindset of terrorism, it is a distant dream to eliminate terrorism. Parliament is the Supreme forum to strengthen democracy in Pakistan and eradicate the mindset of terrorism.
To eradicate terrorism from Pakistan, the people of Pakistan and both civilian and military leadership have made great sacrifices. The first elected female prime Minister of the Muslim world, Benazir Bhutto, wrote history with her blood to eradicate the mindset of terrorism. Since 1977 when she entered practical politics, she faced much opposition from Pakistan’s right wing extremist lobby for her secularist and human rights approach to making an inclusive society.
In 2006, a book titled “Women Who Changed The World”, published by Smith Davies, noted 50 “inspirational” women, in humankind’s history – 5000 years back till the publishing year of 2006 –, women who remained trailblazers for the world and transformed the world and positively made an impact and wrote history. Islamic world’s first democratically elected female prime Minister and then head of the pioneering political party of democracy in Pakistan, Pakistan People’s Party chairperson Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed, stood on top along with Thatcher for her contribution to bring change in the world. She is the only Muslim woman on the list.
The first elected female prime Minister of the Muslim world, Benazir Bhutto, wrote history with her blood to eradicate the mindset of terrorism.
The book paid a stand ovation to Benazir Bhutto for being the first woman to lead a Muslim nation where there was a strong presence of religious fanaticism and a patriarchal system, she contributed her role to improving the conditions of women, marginalized and the underprivileged in Pakistan. Her struggle against dictatorship and martial law is also unforgettable. The book covers all aspects and those 50 women who are honoured made unmatchable contributions to the fields of human endeavour, politics, literature, art, science, music, social reform, entertainment, sport and adventure. This is indeed a great honour and recognition of her life.
Apart from it many other recognitions and awards including the United Human Rights Award during her life and a posthumous conferred to Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed for her services to democracy, peace and human rights in the world. Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto was a visionary leader. She was committed to her homeland and her beloved country. She struggled for democracy in Pakistan within the country and abroad. When she returned to Pakistan on October 18, 2007, her nation was under siege facing threats from terrorists and a dictator desperate to cling on to power.
Despite visible threats to her life, she vowed to fight against terrorists’ mindset and was of the view that the war on terror can never be won until and unless such mentality and thought is eradicated globally. She called such thought a hindrance to establishing democracy in Muslim countries. And eventually, she gave her life for this great cause. Both the UN Commission and Scotland Yard held Baitullah Mehsood responsible for her killing. Though terrorists physically snatched her from her followers her legacy is the touchstone, and it is to be followed, her party has been fighting against terrorism successfully but still, terrorists’ mindset exists inside the country and abroad.
In 1993, global terrorist Osama bin Laden financed two plots to assassinate Benazir Bhutto prior to the elections. Both attempts were masterminded by Ramzi Yousef, the notorious terrorist and bomb-maker who was later convicted of the first World Trade Center bombing.
Terrorist mindset engulfed three important leaders of the world who were working for global peace. The legend of the legends, Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed was assassinated by terrorists of Al-Qaeda and TTP in 2007 as she was leaving after addressing a huge public rally in Liaquat Bagh Rawalpindi to restore democracy and peace in Pakistan, Lebanon’s prime minister Rafik Hariri was assassinated by terrorists of Hezbollah in 2005, and Israel’s prime minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by right wing Israeli extremist groups at ‘Yes to peace’ rally in 1995.
Long ago Benazir Bhutto had hinted that world democracies are fragile and during her own 1989 commencement address at Harvard entitled “Democratic nations must unite.” She had given a global agenda for the world to get united to strengthen the democracies to ensure human rights globally. Benazir Bhutto was a living legend.
As the shocking news of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination broke, the entire world was in deep shock and grief, all country heads, international organizations and non-government organizations condemned it but Al-Qaeda and TTP. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting and unanimously condemned the assassination, a call echoed by UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Both European Union President José Manuel Barroso and US President George W Bush vowed to protect democracy while following the legacy of Benazir Bhutto.
Whenever any incident of terrorism happens in the world, world leaders quote the example of the great Benazir Bhutto’s courage and bravery. Recently in the year 2019, terrorism hit New Zealand and Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Arden paid a standing ovation to the great Bhutto for her sacrifices for peace, Jacinda Arden also appealed to world leaders to follow the legacy of Benazir Bhutto to fight the mindset of terrorism.
The latest report of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), is very alarming and a wake up call for the world. In the view of resurgence of terrorism in the world, world leaders and international organizations must call emergency meetings to fight the mindset of terrorism while following the legacy of the legend the great Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto Shaheed to ensure global peace in the world.
The education divide
By: Muhammad Anwar Farooq| July 06, 2024
Education is an organized learning process that instills knowledge, skills, attitudes, and beliefs in individuals. It is a lifelong journey that begins at an early age, usually in formal settings such as schools, and progresses through various levels of further education, professional training, and personal development. Education is vital to personal development and societal advancement because it equips people with the tools they need to think critically, solve problems, and positively contribute to their community.
Education in Pakistan’s cities is generally more advanced and accessible than in the countryside. Cities like Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad have a higher concentration of educational institutions, like as public and private schools, colleges, and universities. These metropolitan schools typically have stronger infrastructure, including well-maintained buildings, libraries, laboratories, and access to cutting-edge technology. Private schools in cities are frequently associated with higher educational standards, including a competitive curriculum and a greater selection of extracurricular activities. Teachers in urban regions are often more skilled and experienced, with access to superior training programmes and professional development opportunities.
The availability of resources and assistance from both the public and commercial sectors improves the quality of education in cities. Urban schools are more likely to use technology in their teaching techniques, leveraging computers, internet connectivity, and digital learning tools to improve the learning experience. Furthermore, urban students have better access to extracurricular activities like athletics, arts, and clubs, which are critical for overall growth. Parental involvement is another important consideration in urban schooling. Parents in cities are more conscious of the value of education and actively involved in their children’s academic lives. Improved contact between schools and parents, typically via digital channels, helps to encourage this participation. Community support for education is particularly stronger in cities, where there is a greater emphasis on the importance of education for social and economic growth.
In stark contrast, rural education in Pakistan has various problems that impede the provision of quality education. Rural communities frequently face a shortage of educational infrastructure, with many schools functioning in decrepit buildings or temporary structures. Schools are scarce, so children must travel vast distances to attend classes, which can be a substantial barrier to regular attendance. Many rural schools lack essential facilities like libraries, laboratories, and safe drinking water, making it difficult to establish a positive learning environment.
Teachers in rural areas are usually underqualified and overloaded, with a single teacher handling many grades and courses. This shortage of skilled educators is aggravated by the difficulties of attracting and retaining teachers in remote areas due to lower pay, harsh living circumstances, and restricted professional development opportunities.
As a result, the overall quality of education in rural schools is poorer than in urban schools. Rural schools frequently have a limited curriculum that emphasizes rote learning over critical thinking and problem-solving skills. Extracurricular activities are uncommon due to a lack of resources and money. Technology integration is limited, with many rural schools lacking computers and internet connection, exacerbating the digital divide between urban and rural children.
It is a sad reality that the discrepancy between Pakistan’s urban and rural education systems has also far-reaching consequences for young people, influencing their personal development, economic possibilities, and general quality of life. This divide reinforces cycles of inequality and diminishes the potential of rural youth in comparison to their urban counterparts. By addressing these discrepancies, Pakistan may work toward providing equitable education to all of its young, ensuring that every child, regardless of geographical location, has the opportunity to attain their full potential and contribute to the country’s success.
Parental involvement in rural education is often lower due to a lack of understanding about the value of education and the economic necessity of children contributing to household income. Many rural households rely on their children to do agricultural work or other types of labour, which can take precedence over education. Rural communities may place less focus on the long-term benefits of education.
According to a Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training estimate, Pakistan has around 26 million out-of-school children, with a large number of them living in rural regions. According to a UNICEF assessment, many rural schools lack essential utilities including clean drinking water, sanitation, and electricity. Only 64 percent of primary schools have access to safe drinking water, while 68 percent have acceptable sanitary facilities. The Pakistan Education Statistics 2020-21 study shows a considerable difference in the student-teacher ratio between urban and rural areas, with rural areas having a greater ratio due to a lack of trained teachers. Only 35 percent of rural instructors have formal training, compared to 70 percent in urban regions. Many rural schools lack access to basic learning materials, with an estimated 40 percent of rural schools lacking suitable textbooks. According to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey, only 17 percent of rural schools have access to computers and the internet versus 78 percent in urban schools. Pakistan now spends approximately 1.7 percent of its GDP on education, which is below UNESCO’s suggested 4-6 percent figure.
No doubt, the government can play an important role in closing the educational gap between urban and rural areas in Pakistan by implementing comprehensive measures to improve access and quality of education for all children. To address the significant number of out-of-school children, particularly in rural regions, new schools must be built and old schools renovated to provide secure and conducive learning environments. It is critical to provide basic facilities such as safe drinking water, sanitation, and electricity.
The government should also prioritize recruiting and maintaining talented teachers in rural areas, offering incentives like better pay and housing allowances, as well as providing frequent training programmes to improve their teaching skills. With many rural schools missing basic learning materials and technical resources, textbook distribution and investment in digital infrastructure, such as computers and internet connection, are critical. Promoting e-learning programs that are available via mobile devices can help to close the gap. Furthermore, the government should initiate awareness campaigns to educate parents about the value of education and rally community support for the establishment of local schools.
It is a sad reality that the discrepancy between Pakistan’s urban and rural education systems has also far-reaching consequences for young people, influencing their personal development, economic possibilities, and general quality of life. This divide reinforces cycles of inequality and diminishes the potential of rural youth in comparison to their urban counterparts. By addressing these discrepancies, Pakistan may work toward providing equitable education to all of its young, ensuring that every child, regardless of geographical location, has the opportunity to attain their full potential and contribute to the country’s success.
Anti-Pakistan Campaign
By: Malik Muhammad Ashraf | July 06, 2024
Following the passage of a resolution by US Congress expressing concern over the human rights situation in Pakistan, the alleged rigging in 2024 polls, and the demand for free and fair investigations into those allegations, the State Department has also endorsed its contents. Deputy Spokesperson of the State Department Vedant Patel in his daily press briefing on 1 July in response to a question regarding the resolution passed by Congress said” This is something that we have continued to raise with our partners in Pakistan. Yes, that continues to be the area of our focus” he further said that they have consistently, privately, and publicly urged Pakistan to respect the rights of the people in line with its constitution and international commitments.
Pakistani parliament has rightly rejected the Congress resolution pointing out that it was interference in the internal affairs of Pakistan. The question is what right does the US Congress or for that matter the US administration have to issue such statements and ask Pakistan what it needs to do on the issues that it has raised? This is nothing but a bullying attitude of a superpower.
Unfortunately, the matter has not ended there. Now the UN working group on Forced Detentions has also made very hard-hitting allegations against Pakistan and without mincing any words has said that Imran Khan’s detention was arbitrary and in violation of international law. It said “Appropriate remedy would be to release Mr. Khan immediately and accord him an enforceable right to compensation and other reparations, in accordance with international law. Khan’s woes are part of a much larger campaign of repression against him and his Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, members of Khan’s party were arrested and tortured and their rallies were disrupted. There was widespread fraud on election day, stealing dozens of parliamentary seats” Reportedly Zulfi Bokhari a member of PTI in exile at the moment had complained to the group which without investigating the allegations has endorsed them in totality.
The foregoing developments are not just a coincidence. They are a consequence of persistent lobbying by PTI which has hired a lobbying firm in the USA and that fact has been accepted and boasted about by former KPK finance minister Taimur Jhagra in a TV talk show. The jubilation expressed by PTI and its founding chairman on the anti-Pakistan rhetoric also provides irrefutable evidence of the dirty game played by the party. It is indeed the most condemnable act by the party as it has chosen to place its narrow political agenda above the state interests and left no stone unturned in maligning it at the global level.
I have a sneaking feeling that the USA and UN Group have not done this for PTI’s sake. The PTI has only provided them the opportunity to advance their larger agenda to promote political instability in Pakistan and keep the country under pressure. USA would not do it for Imran Khan who has been blaming it for hatching a conspiracy to remove him from power. The USA is a devious superpower that uses overt and covert machinations to achieve its objectives.
The arrest of Nasrullah aka Maulvi Mansoor who heads the defence shoora of TTP in Balochistan while he was planning terror attacks in the province and the revelations made by him provide a deep insight into the anti-Pakistan global agenda.
Maulvi Mansoor in his confessional statement in a video played before the journalists said that Indian RAW was supporting TTP and BLA and he was responsible for military, financial, and administrative affairs of the banned outfit. The TTP has been working closely with BLA as desired by RAW. According to him, RAW wanted the two entities to collaborate and establish camps in Balochistan. The objective of setting up these camps was to establish a foothold in the province, target Chinese citizens to sabotage CPEC, and carry out kidnapping for ransom which would highlight the forced disappearances issue discrediting Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. He also revealed that many missing persons were roaming around in Afghanistan. He also confessed that the current Afghan government fully backed their activities.
The information provided by Maulvi Mansoor establishes beyond doubt the nexus between terrorist outfits, RAW, and the Afghan government and also clears the haze on the much-trumpeted issue of missing persons and how the enemies were exploiting the situation. As confessed by him the biggest aim of collaboration between TTP and BLA was to sabotage CPEC.
Evidently the major objective of the nexus between RAW, TTP, and BLA is to sabotage CPEC. I also have a hunch that the USA might covertly be involved in this effort. USA and India are collaborating in the ‘stop-China’ policy and they have been from time to time expressing concern about CPEC. The USA perceives CPEC as a threat to its global influence. It has already formed alliances to check the rise of China as a global power. India also sees an opportunity for itself to settle a score with Pakistan and also gain favours from the USA and its allies for the role that it is playing in the ‘ stop China’ policy. It is an unholy alliance against Pakistan as well. Both the USA and India are collaborating on the principle of your friend is mine friend and your enemy is my enemy. The commonality of interests provides strength to this anti-Pakistan alliance.
Under the circumstances, it is indeed very regrettable that a Pakistani political party is allowing itself to be used as a pawn on the global anti-Pakistan chess board. The party and its leadership need serious rethinking as the course adopted by it might render it irrelevant to the political landscape of the country in the future.
The advisable course for it is to shun politics of confrontation and maligning the state institutions. It must play a constructive role in the parliament and seek redress of its grievances regarding alleged irregularities in elections through the constitutional forums available in this regard. It needs to revisit the process of its own rise to power and the politics of vendetta practiced by it as a consequence of which almost all the leaders of the opposition were incarcerated only to be acquitted by the courts of law. Raising an accusing finger at others does not absolve it from the wrongs and human rights violations that it has committed itself.
Pakistan also needs an aggressive diplomatic offensive to neutralize propaganda against it and expose the elements that are creating false narratives and propagating them through international lobbies and its social media warriors.
CPEC to CPEC 2.0
By: Sher Ali Bukhar | July 06, 2024
One of the finest initiatives of early Pakistan’s foreign policy was opening up to China during the early 1950s. It is worth noting that Pakistan was the third non-communist and first Muslim country in the world that recognize the People’s Republic of China and establish full-fledged diplomatic relationships with China while other parts of the world- especially the West- did not recognize PRC as a sole representative of China and extended Chinese UNO and UNSC seats to Taiwan at that time. Meanwhile, global politics and regional dynamics changed during the 1970s justified China-USA relations where Pakistan was a key player in facilitating Henry Kissinger’s visit (July 1971) to China which later on provided the groundwork to President Nixon’s arrival (Feb 1972) at Dragon Doors. Afterwards, China became part of the international community.
Meanwhile, during that period, owing to the convergence of interests, Pakistan and China have fully established political, economic, diplomatic and cultural relations. It is also noted that China didn’t forget the diplomacy and statecraft of Pakistan during the isolation period of China that acted as a bridge between China and the international community. It is not surprising that after becoming the second largest economy in 2010 when China decided to establish BRI- China and Pakistan decided to establish China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Although the genesis of CPEC can be traced back to the late 1950s, the initial groundwork of the project was set by President Musharraf’s era. In 2013, then the government of PPP under President Asif Ali Zardari signed a MoU with the Chinese government for the startup of CPEC. In 2015, both governments decided to kick off the projects of CPEC.
In the year 2024, the new coalition government of Pakistan under the leadership of PM Shahbaz Sharif has embarked on the revival of CPEC- phase 2 where both governments are trying hard to revive the Main-Line 1 (ML1) project. The initial project value of ML-1 was around $9bn which was later on cut to $6-7bn owing to concerns of debt obligation. In that project, the 1726 km track of railway line would be reconstructed and redesigned for the upgradation and modernization of the Railway of Pakistan. Through ML1, Pakistan’s economy, cargo facility and passenger traffic would be manifold.
In the second phase of CPEC, both countries have decided to build Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to attract trade, investment and manufacturing capabilities of Pakistan. Initially, nine SEZs would be established, however, due to COVID-19, Pakistan was able to establish four SEZs in the country, where special incentives and taxation exemptions are given for the facilitation of a friendly business environment.
Now let’s move towards Gwadar. Experts viewed that the real strategic reason for CPEC lies in the building of Gwadar port facilities;70pc of Chinese goods and services go through the Strait of Malacca where China’s rival powers are in charge. China opted that in the case of potential war or high tensions with the USA, this vital choke point might be blocked which essentially plugged the Chinese economy. Therefore, upon that consideration, China decided to create an alternative route where Gwadar connected with Kashgar through the networks of roads, railways, and highways. Meanwhile, Pakistan through Gwadar port can become the potential hub of regional trade and connectivity among South Asia, Middle East, and Central Asia.
Upon these considerations, Pakistan viewed CPEC as a game changer in the region. It is also notable thing that owing to the economic component between China and Pakistan, both countries can deepen their strategic relations and become partners in regional peace and connectivity. China has also inked a strategic relationship with Iran, in the form of economic investment, having worth $400bn meanwhile China has also become a key player in Taliban’s Afghanistan by pumping economic investment in rare minerals. These omens indicated that strong possibility of the extension of CPEC into Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Meanwhile, the USA is watching these economic developments of China through a suspicious lens and is fully locked into strategic competition with China. Initially, the USA has tried to present rival plans for BRI like B3W, Global Gateway and India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, and all of them have backfired. Thereby, the USA has been directly involved in defaming projects of BRI and CPEC as debt traps and asking Pakistan to roll back some of CPEC projects IMF has also taken a cautious outlook of CPEC projects, most of these considerations are politically in nature. Not to forget India here, which always indulges in sabotaging Pakistan. India, from the first day, questioned CPEC due to the alleged involvement of the GB region. However, Pakistan has set aside Indian claims and doubled down on CPEC projects while calling GB and Kashmir an integral part of Pakistan. Nevertheless, many intelligence reports are claiming that India is covertly attacking Chinese workers and engineers for sabotaging CPEC Projects while instigating terrorism in Baluchistan for crippling Gwadar Port.
Therefore, Pakistan should eliminate the menace of terrorism and build political stability at home for the completion of CPEC projects. In addition to that, this country needs to revamp basic economic reforms to clamp down on bureaucratic and red-tapism that are delaying the strategic nature of CPEC projects. Meanwhile, the government should also take a rational approach regarding the nature of debt mounting from CPEC projects while strategies must be devised at both government and non-governmental levels to manage the debt burden of CPEC projects. Last but not least, Pakistan should fully implement CPEC Projects without antagonizing the USA as I repeatedly argued in this newspaper that Pakistan can’t choose between China and the USA.
What to do with India?
By: Engineer Khurram Dastgir-Khan | July 06, 2024
The twenty-first century has not been kind to Pakistan. A quarter of the way into the new century, Pakistan’s ability to pursue its interests is curtailed severely in the global arena. Yet we must find faith and confidence within ourselves to overcome the current polycrisis, rebuild our international relationships patiently, think afresh imaginatively, and square up to an India that is less strong than it appears.
The results of the recent Indian elections have laid bare Hindutva’s weaknesses masked by GDP growth and India’s deemed status as a counterweight to China. Glaring economic inequality, relative weakness against China, rising unemployment and crippling mass poverty, restive farmers, and systematic suppression of minorities, especially Muslims, have corroded the shine of ‘Shining India.’ Unlike China, India has failed to raise a majority of its population out of poverty. Large swathes of its territory are still pre-modern and riven by religious, ethnic, and caste fault lines as well as secession movements.
Western corporations have been looking to shift their manufacturing away from China towards India, but this manufacturing boom has yet to materialize. India’s contribution to the United States’s 'Indo-Pacific' stratagem is more theory than practice. And it has cast its lot with a superpower receding in confidence and projection of power. India has so far gotten away with playing both sides in many international conflicts, not least the Russia-Ukraine war and the Iran-Israel stand-off. Rising China will, sooner rather than later, force the US to call India’s bluff on Iran, Russia, and Taiwan.
India’s regional profile has also degraded. Nepal, Sri Lanka, and most recently Maldives have made serious overtures to China. India’s bid for a seat on the UN Security Council has been frustrated repeatedly. Its self-proclaimed superpower status is thwarted by its lack of regional preponderance. Our eastern neighbour is thus not as strong as it looks but the West’s hardening stance against China has pushed the US and its allies into an ever-tighter economic and military embrace with India.
India may not be as robust as advertised, but Pakistan has its own challenges. Pakistan is walking the tightrope between China and the US while striving to stand tall against India. The international milieu is at best indifferent, and at worst hostile. The differential between Pakistan in India in conventional forces and arms is now far worse than the Clausewitzian one-to-three ratio. India has put ‘Cold Start’ on the ground, bringing a bulk of its fighting capacity down the length of the border.
Pakistan has to walk the tightrope in a condition weakened by its conduct in the Second Afghan War (2001-21) and the post-2021 degradation in relations with Afghanistan, the ongoing economic implosion, resistance to modernity and reform, a recurring challenge from violent extremism, Bonapartism that derailed the 2013-17 national consolidation, and the new political fascism that has arisen in consequence.
The widening difference between India and Pakistan’s economic and diplomatic strength emboldened Narendra Modi to begin pursuing in 2016 a 'not war, not peace' strategy to punish Pakistan beneath the nuclear umbrella. Starting in 2017, India ratcheted up bombings across the Line of Control, then ratcheted up even more in 2018. Pakistan had no counter-strategy.
This emboldened India in early 2019 to break a half-century-long taboo of crossing Pakistan’s air boundaries. The valiant response of our air force was dissipated, as Pakistan was constrained to return Flt Lt Abhinandan without any visible quid pro quo. This won Mr Modi the 2019 election and led to the decisive next step: the August 2019 annexation of Indian illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK).
Mr Modi’s annexation of IIOJK shattered seventy-five years of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Yet we failed to mobilize the international community at all. The UN published in 2018 and 2019 two landmark reports on torture in Kashmir. We failed to mobilize the international community. Killings, torture, and draconian legislation to discriminate and deny citizenship to minorities in India attracted and continues to attract international headlines. We failed to mobilize the international community. Meanwhile, India continues to encircle Pakistan economically by deepening relations with Iran, Afghanistan, and our friends in the Persian Gulf.
This explains but does not justify Pakistan’s strategic timidity when in 2020 India and China clashed in Ladakh, where India lost at least twenty soldiers and much credibility. The clashes continued till 2022, and in consequence, India has shifted a substantial portion of its Pakistan-facing troops towards China, leading to what some say now is a parity of conventional forces on the Pak-India border. India rewarded Pakistan’s ‘good’ behaviour with an LoC ceasefire in February 2021, which still holds. This is the stalemate as Modi 3.0 began last month.
Narendra Modi finding the courage for peace is unlikely and would be uncharacteristic, although climate change, water, and food security offer new vistas of cooperation. Modi 3.0 will continue courting Taliban 2.0 in Afghanistan, as it did so recently through its “continuous help in capacity building of the Afghan cricket team.” New Delhi is likely to placate angry Kashmiris in IIOJK with the olive branch of statehood.
Voices in New Delhi are arguing that India should take advantage of its putative ascendant position to force an advantageous peace deal with Pakistan. But equally strident voices are arguing that India is doing well without engaging Pakistan and is better off remaining so. It is too soon to tell which voices will prevail.
What is Pakistan to do, not just with India but also to salvage its international reputation? The first action is to stop offering talks to India, which the present government has inadvisably done more than once. The second is to start walking the talk on regional geo-economics. The third is to eliminate violent extremism decisively from our soil.
The fourth is to deepen the strategic dialogue with China towards long-term strategy and leverage our membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. The fifth is to conduct discreet but consistent diplomacy with our European partners, who have been steadfast in maintaining trade concessions to Pakistan despite Brexit and US hostility.
The sixth is to begin an uphill campaign to achieve parity with India’s provisional status in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. Seventh, develop a strategic communication unit to systematically expose India’s human rights violations across the world. The eighth is to invest in studying India. The final is the most consequential: freeing the state from vested interests, modernizing structures of governance, aggressive liberalization, and unleashing investment domestic and foreign, towards an economic growth of more than five per cent for a decade.
All of the above actions are difficult for the government and the nation, some excruciatingly so. Despite our reduced circumstances and myriad internal challenges, nuclear power Pakistan can fortify itself with the strength and resilience of its 240 million citizens, stop appeasing India, protect its sovereignty, and pursue its interests with hard work and verve. “To the question, What shall we do to be saved in this world?” wrote the Marquess of Halifax, “there is no other answer but this, Look to your Moat”.
Afghan Taliban – All is Not Well
By: Omay Aimen| July 05, 2024
Apparently, the introverted and well-guarded structure of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan is not as monolithic as perceived by the rest of the world. The unison allegiance to a theocratic regime under its supremo Haibat Ullah Akhunzada is marred by internal conflicts and commotions due to peculiar reasons attached to Afghan society. The governmental structure of Afghanistan has always been a conglomerate of vicious aspirations, beliefs, and vested personal agendas often consequential to political machinations. Afghan Taliban is a complicated network and no different from traditional Afghan fiefdoms and regional influences. The initial euphoria of sticking to an ideological bond has started fading away giving room to internal conflicts based on lust for power and resources. Divisions within the ranks of the Taliban were exposed just after the death of Mullah Omer in 2015 following which Quetta Shura hastily announced Mullah Mansoor as successor of Mullah Omer. The announcement was publicly opposed by key Taliban leadership including Hassan Rehmani. Core fissures engrained in ideology, tribal allegiances, regional connections, and control over resources including the narcotics trade flout the illusion of the Taliban being a cohesive organization. A faction promotes a moderate style of governance while another stays an exponent of hardline theocratic interpretation of religion and is averse to departing from their obdurate stance. There is no evidence that these varying stances are abridged in the foreseeable future.
These internal conflicts encompass multiple fault lines in ideological diversities, variable interpretations of Shariah, tribal and regional allegiances, and Taliban leaders’ personal aspirations for power and resources. Hardliner factions vie for a conservative and introverted model of governance of the 1990s while moderates aspire for an inclusive approach as per the expectations of the rest of the world. The control over resource-rich regions is another reason for the internal strife of the Taliban. With possession and control of these regions, substantial economic leverage is granted to Taliban commanders which facilitates their grip in these areas in maintaining their influence. The control of important supply routes facilitating the movement of weapons and illegal trade becomes a critical factor in internal conflicts. The Taliban bank on these routes to maintain their operations and stronghold in their respective regions. The influence of regional actors and world powers is another factor that plays an instrumental role in augmenting existing discord among various factions of the Afghan Taliban. These external actors seek to support a particular faction to facilitate their opposing agendas and vested interests. Tribal affiliations are another dominating factor that is deeply rooted in Afghan society and it even overpowers strong ideological bonds. It is a known fact that within the Taliban’s ruling structure, tribal dominance has remained a prominent feature. These tribal affiliations supersede loyalty to the overall Taliban leadership. The prominence of Bashir Noorzai in the Taliban network is well known as Noorzai has been financially supporting the network through his business of drugs. After his arrest in the USA, Bashir Noorzai was replaced by General Abdul Raziq Achakzai who was the Chief of Police of Kandahar Province. The drug business has remained a significant source of income for the Taliban regime. Contrary to Fatwas issued by Akhunzada Haibat Ullah for the elimination of opium cultivation, it still remains the source of income of Taliban warlords dominating their respective fiefdoms.
Taliban leader Dawood Muzammil held a prominent place within the Kandhari faction of the Taliban and played a significant role in supporting operations within the Taliban’s network through the drug trade. Prominent Taliban leaders like Ibrahim Sadr, Gul Agha Ishaqzai, and Qayyum Zakir have also been involved in drug trafficking to support the Taliban Network. According to a report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), opium cultivation in Afghanistan witnessed a substantial increase from 32% in 2022 compared to the previous year. The total cultivation area reached a remarkable 233,000 hectares. Alarmingly, the report also highlights the substantial growth in opium income, soaring from $425 million in 2021 to an overwhelming $1.4 billion in 2022, representing a remarkable 330% increase. This amount accounted for approximately 29% of the entire agricultural sector’s value in 2021. The specific economic interests vying for the desire to achieve ascendency within the network have initiated personal rifts among key leaders of the Taliban regime. These internal power scuffles are not always nonviolent and sometimes these struggles lead to deadly infighting. The emergence of Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Yaqoob as the new power players within the Taliban has resulted in an intricate dynamic characterized by a delicate balance between collaboration and eroding trust and behind the scenes, their mutual trust is diminishing as each harbors aspirations of succeeding Hibatullah as the leader of the group.
The Taliban’s activities and movements in Afghanistan have undeviating consequences for Pakistan’s internal security, thus making it vital for Pakistan to closely observe the internal conflicts within the Taliban. Any changes in leadership, internal power struggles, or ideological debates can influence its policy towards and relations with Pakistan. Different factions may adopt distinct approaches to achieve their objectives such as the question of TTP or facilitating peace talks between Pakistan and the TTP. Knowledge about the Afghan Taliban’s internal conflicts can also help identify opportunities for more concrete engagement and influence within the Islamic Emirate.
Rethinking CPEC
By: Syed Mohammad Ali | July 05, 2024
The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been under implementation for nearly a decade now. CPEC was meant to draw much-needed investments in Pakistan’s infrastructure and energy sectors at a time when the security situation in the country was uncertain, and American largess had begun to wither. Despite implementation delays, Chinese investments in CPEC are entering a second phase, so this is a useful time to examine how the first phase has fared, and to draw lessons from it.
The Pak-China Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) met recently to take stock of where things stand. In addition to further beefing up security for Chinese workers, the JCC reiterated the need for CPEC to deliver more growth, improve livelihood, enable innovation and catalyse a green transition. Despite building infrastructure and power plants, CPEC’s record on these latter fronts is not very encouraging.
Thus far, CPEC has lacked local participation and transparency, which has worsened friction in sensitive places, such as Gwadar. China showed some largess by building a hospital, making sporadic relief contributions, and even announcing plans to provide a desalination plant for Gwadar. However, due to China’s reliance on its own firms to provide managerial and technical skills and other inputs, and its inability to make the Gwadar port a hub for economic activity, we saw the emergence of a major protest movement ‘Gwadar ko haq do tehreek’ in 2022.
Whether CPEC’s second phase projects — including building more roads and tunnels, another damn and a long-delayed railroad line linking Karachi to Peshawar — will offer more opportunities for the local populace remains to be seen.
Skeptics point to Chinese investments in ‘white elephant’ projects, such as the EXIM Bank funded Lahore metro rail project, as illustrations of ‘debt diplomacy’. However, other donor funded reforms and development projects have also been susceptible to elite capture and often produced lackluster results. Pakistan’s top-heavy Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has highlighted the need to expedite foreign investments in farming, mining, IT and defence production. Yet, unless existing project design and implementation mechanisms are modified, Chinese or other foreign investments in these sectors may do no more than produce low paying jobs and exacerbate environmental damage.
Pakistan must make greater efforts to align any incoming investments with compliance to labour and environmental safeguards to continue to avail preferential access to international markets (via the EU’s GSP Plus, for example).
Pakistan also needs to make CPEC greener. The Pakistan-China Institute, in collaboration with the Sustainable Development Institute and Fudan University, has made useful suggestions in this regard. These recommendations call for shelving ‘bad’ projects and making environmental and social standards disclosure related to CPEC projects more robust. This research has also highlighted the need for turning CPEC planned Special Economic Zones (SEZs) into ‘Eco-SEZs’, which should encourage the use of renewables, ensure energy audits and emphasise recycling, which is also a good suggestion.
While Pakistan scrapped plans to install two more coal plants via Chinese financing, the government still seems keen on using its Thar coal reserves to produce dirty energy, which will worsen the air pollution problem. Instead of asking China to finance the conversion of imported coal projects to use local coal to lessen costs and enable loan repayments, Chinese input should be requested to help reduce power losses and improve energy efficiency instead.
Pakistan should invite China to pilot-test efforts to green the broader BRI via CPEC as well. The need to contend with climate change may also enable a green détente between China and the US, and Pakistan is well placed to enable such great power collaboration. However, Pakistani academic and research institutions need to proactively conduct research to identify and formulate measures to further investigate and test such possibilities.
The five principles of peaceful coexistence
By: Yang Yundong | July 05, 2024
A few days ago, China solemnly celebrated the 70th anniversary of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in Beijing. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended the celebration and delivered an important speech. He expounded on the essence of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence and their relevance for our times, pointed the direction for building a community with a shared future for mankind amid major global transformation, and voiced a strong message of the Global South to work with people around the world for a better future.
Seventy years ago, the Chinese leadership advocated the Five Principles in their entirety for the first time, namely: mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity; mutual non-aggression; mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit; and peaceful coexistence. The Five Principles were included in China-India and China-Myanmar joint statements, which called for making them basic norms for state-to-state relations. In 1955, more than 20 Asian and African countries attended the Bandung Conference. They proposed ten principles for handling state-to-state relations on the basis of the Five Principles, and advocated the Bandung spirit of solidarity, friendship and cooperation. The Non-Aligned Movement that rose in the 1960s adopted the Five Principles as its guiding principles. The Declaration on Principles of International Law adopted at the 25th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 1970 and the Declaration on the Establishment of the New International Economic Order adopted at the Sixth Special UNGA Session in 1974 both endorsed the Five Principles.
China has been a proactive advocate and steadfast practitioner of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. The Chinese civilisation is the only continuous and enduring civilisation in human history, and its core spirit is the concept of peace and harmony. Historically, the Chinese nation has always upheld the values of “peace is the most precious thing” and “harmony and diversity”, and has always been in pursuit of the principle of “one family under heaven”. As a founding member of the United Nations and a permanent member of the Security Council, China strives to maintain lasting global peace, stability and prosperity, contributing Chinese solutions to global problems and demonstrating its role as a responsible great power. Since the founding of the People’s Republic of China 75 years ago, China has never initiated a war or occupied an inch of another country’s land. China is also the only country that has enshrined the path of peaceful development in its constitution and is the only nuclear-armed country that has pledged not to use nuclear weapons first. Based on the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, China has established diplomatic relations with over 180 countries worldwide.
The Five Principles have been widely recognised and observed by the international community. The Five Principles were initiated with the purpose of protecting the interests and pursuits of small and weak countries from power politics. They categorically oppose imperialism, colonialism and hegemonism, and reject belligerent and bullying practices of the law of the jungle. They have laid an important intellectual foundation for a more just and equitable international order. They fully conform with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, with the evolving trend of international relations of our times, and with the fundamental interests of all nations. They offer a new path toward peaceful settlement of historic issues and international disputes, triumphing over obsolete, narrow-minded, antagonistic and confrontational mindsets such as bloc politics and sphere of influence. Inspired and encouraged by the Five Principles, more and more countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America have voiced and extended support to each other, stood up against foreign interference, and embarked on an independent path of development. The Five Principles have also boosted South-South cooperation, and improved and further developed North-South relations.
Today, the world has entered a new period of turbulence and change, with the international situation in turmoil and chaos, the world’s unprecedented changes accelerating, geopolitical conflicts, ideological confrontation and other challenges jeopardising global peace and stability and human society facing unprecedented challenges. Under this new historical juncture, with the intertwined destinies of countries and the shared and fundamental interests of all peoples in mind, President Xi Jinping put forward the vision of building a community with a shared future for mankind, providing a new answer to what kind of world to build and how to build it. This is the best way to inherit, advance and enrich the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence under new circumstances. China has been ready to work with all sides to draw wisdom from the history of the Five Principles, gather consensus and strength to address today’s global challenges, honour our responsibility for history and for the people to build an open, inclusive, clean and beautiful world of lasting peace, universal security and shared prosperity, implement the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the Global Civilization Initiative, hold high the banner of building a community with a shared future for mankind, and take a historical step forward to building a common homeland for humanity.
Pakistan is an important country in the Global South and a faithful practitioner of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Over the past 73 years since the establishment of diplomatic relations, China and Pakistan have always actively developed bilateral friendly and cooperative relations guided by the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence, regardless of how the international situation and the two countries have developed and changed. In particular, over the past decade, the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership between China and Pakistan has continuously deepened. President Xi Jinping has emphasised that, standing at a new historical starting point, the Global South should be more open and more inclusive, and join hands together to take the lead in building a community with a shared future for mankind. China is willing to continue to advance the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence with Pakistan and other Global South countries, promote an equal and orderly multipolar world and a universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalisation, and make continuous progress toward building a community with a shared future for mankind.
Soaring energy prices
By: Sahibzada Riaz Noor | July 05, 2024
Electricity and gas prices are soaring. Power prices in Pakistan have a cumulative impact of up to 30% on overall inflation levels. The most seriously affected are prices of daily consumables, affecting living standards of the majority of the population, 40% of which live below the poverty line.
There have been widespread public protests and outcries against energy bills increases and power shortages. The government has announced concessions in energy prices for lower-end consumers, but hardly 15-20% of users benefit therefrom, with the vast majority continuing to bear the brunt.
Electricity tariffs have increased from around Rs24-28 PKWH to an average of a staggering Rs76 per unit over the last few years, mainly on account of surging generation costs, energy debts, power losses and taxes. Pakistan has the distinction of being a country with one of the highest rates of energy pilferage, euphemistically termed ‘line losses’ that would not be possible without departmental collusion.
In 2020 the Aggregate Technical & Commercial (AT&C) losses of Pakistan’s electricity sector stood at 29.7%, highest in the region. Sri Lanka had the lowest losses of 10%, followed by Turkey at 14.8%, Bangladesh 21.9%, India 23.9% and Nepal 24.4%.
This is a period of high electricity and gas prices with no apparent short-term remedy. Induction of measures of increasing share of cheaper sources of energy and upgrading transmission and distribution networks, to curtail line losses, could bring some amelioration, but results have so far proved elusive.
Electricity prices have increased and are anticipated to further enhance caused mainly by the gas and oil disruptions due to the Ukraine war and the fallout of the Israel-Gaza conflict on world energy prices.
The US, the UK and the EU are all facing energy inflation and shortages. Most of the European countries as well as Japan, China and India have stockpiled gas and pre-booked most of the world gas supplies to meet their winter requirements.
In Pakistan, ordinarily, nearly 40 % of national power requirements are met by gas and oil fired power producing plants. Among the various sources of power, cost-wise, hydropower electricity, contributing 25% of total generation, is the cheapest, followed by gas produced electricity. Power produced from fuel oil is the most expensive. Coal produces only a small portion of total power. Nuclear power provides 12.8% of total power, while solar and wind produce relatively smaller proportions of 9% and 4%, respectively.
A dilemma regarding gas prices persists arising from the insufficient deals made for future gas supplies when international prices had plummeted during early days of the Covid pandemic.
Due to the absence of sufficient long-term gas deals and the acute shortage caused by pre-bookings by major gas consumers, there is such an acute shortage of LNG on world markets that gas was not available to Pakistan in 2022-23 even at spot rates as high as $36 per MMBTU. The 15-year-long LNG agreement signed with Qatar in 2015 was @ $13 per MMBTU. Sadly, a former Prime Minister and a Finance Minister were sent to jail for purchases made at allegedly exorbitant rates for which no proof was ultimately forthcoming.
Paradoxically, it was Qatar once again to which resort was subsequently made for a gas deal by a regime that had taken criminal actions against previous gas deals that were cheapest in the world at the time.
Due to shortage of cheaper gas, Pakistan is being forced to use expensive furnace oil for generation and increasing electricity prices. It is anticipated that the electricity prices will further increase unless international oil prices fall, which appears improbable.
We may also brace ourselves to face serious gas shortages during the coming winters unless dramatic changes occur on the international market. The OPEC energy picture is also not likely to ease out in the foreseeable future.
Due to resource constraints and commitments made with the IMF, Pakistan may not be in a position to alleviate consumer difficulties on account of electricity and gas price hikes through subsidies. With depressed growth projections, there may not be required fiscal space. Contrarily, there may be a shrinkage in revenue targets. Nor will any expenditure savings be possible in the present tight situation to create budgetary space for relief on energy prices. One can hope against hope for some reduction in power losses. We may latch hopes onto chances of easing of world gas and oil prices but hopes alone can bring little relief to hard-pressed family budgets of the common man.
As a result we are finding electricity and gas prices increasing, leading to sharp public outcry. Due to shortage of cheaper gas, Pakistan is being forced to use expensive furnace oil which increases electricity prices. It is anticipated that the electricity prices will further increase during the coming months. In case world oil prices fall, some relief may appear.
The country is also likely to face acute gas shortages during the coming winters unless there are dramatic changes on the Ukraine and Gaza war fronts leading to greater availability of gas and energy at lower prices.
High power prices will adversely impact manufacturing and export sectors through enhanced costs. Due to capacity payment agreements with Independent Power Plants (IPPs), T&D losses and other reasons, circular debt has risen to nearly Rs1.7 trillion.
Rates of electricity supplied by Discoes versus solar power rates are highly discriminative against solar generation. Discoes supply power at around Rs76 PKWH whereas Discoes pay/adjust only up to Rs21-23 PKWH for solar energy supplied to power grid. A fairer cross-tariff structure is necessary to promote solar generation which holds opportunities for considerable accretion to cheaper available power.
Due to resource constraints and commitments made with the IMF, Pakistan will not be in a position to alleviate consumer difficulties on account of electricity price hikes. With depressed growth projections, there will not be any relief available from an expected revenue collection enhancement. Contrarily, there may be a shrinkage in revenue targets for the year. Nor will any expenditure savings be possible in the present tight situation to create fiscal space for relief on electricity prices.
We may latch hopes onto chances of easing of world gas and oil prices but hope alone is pitiable relief to hard-pressed family budgets of the common consumers.
Busting RAW-Funded TTP-BLA Nexus
By: Asad Ali | July 05, 2024
The recent arrest of high-value terrorists, including the main commander of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) Shura, Nasarullah alias Maulvi Mansoor, marks a significant milestone in Pakistan’s ongoing battle against terrorism. This accomplishment by Pakistani intelligence agencies has shed light on the severity of the brewing security crisis, which is exacerbated by the presence of terrorist safe havens in Afghanistan under Indian patronage. The insights from the investigation, shared by the Home Minister of Balochistan, underscore the urgent need for a cohesive national and regional strategy to combat these threats.
The recent Intelligence-Based Operations (IBOs) that led to these arrests have unequivocally exposed the TTP’s designs to expand its terror networks in Balochistan. The federal cabinet’s formal approval of Operation Azm-i-Istehkam further emphasizes the importance of this mission. The eye-opening confessions of TTP commander Nasarullah have revealed several critical points that merit extraordinary attention.
First, it has become evident that banned terrorist groups are exploiting safe havens in Afghanistan to launch attacks against Pakistan. This reality poses a direct threat to Pakistan’s national security. Second, the Afghan Taliban’s government has failed to suppress these terrorist groups. Instead of addressing Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns, the Taliban’s blatant support for anti-Pakistan terrorists presents a clear and present danger to both national security and fragile bilateral relations. The provision of safe havens and logistical support to these groups by IEA indicates a troubling alignment of interests that undermines regional stability.
One of the most astonishing revelations from Nasarullah’s confessions is strategic cooperation between TTP and Baloch separatist terrorists. Despite their wide ideological gap, the collaboration between these groups suggests the involvement of common handlers orchestrating a fusion of religiously misled extremists and ethnically motivated separatist terrorists. This alliance aims to dislodge the writ of the state and create chaos in Pakistan. The prolonged inaction of IEA against anti-Pakistan proxies further complicates the regional security matrix.
Nasrullah’s disclosures implicated India’s RAW in supporting terrorist groups for strategic gains. He revealed multiple meetings between TTP leader Noor Wali and BLA Majeed Brigade militant Bashir Zeb with RAW officials in Kabul. This collaboration underscores India’s role in destabilizing Pakistan through proxy warfare. The involvement of RAW in facilitating these terrorist networks is a stark reminder of the external threats Pakistan faces. The confessions have also highlighted internal divisions within TTP, particularly regarding the unnatural alliance with the BLA. According to Nasarullah, TTP commander Noor Wali has been exploiting jihad terminology and using non-Mehsud Pashtun foot soldiers as fodder in suicide attacks.
The masterminds hiding in Afghanistan aim to weaken Pakistan’s state apparatus by continuously targeting armed forces and LEAs. These terrorists are committed to creating anarchy, chaos, and instability within Pakistan. The recent surge in terrorist attacks in KPK and Balochistan aims to sabotage CPEC and undermine the overall stability of the country. Peace restored through innumerable sacrifices cannot be left at the mercy of foreign-sponsored terrorists.
To effectively combat terrorism at national level, Pakistan must seek support from all segments of society. The formulation of a rehashed counter-terrorism (counter-terrorism) strategy is crucial and requires broad political consensus. The Pakistan Army continues to play a central role in this complex war against terrorism. However, all state institutions, including the police, judiciary, legislature, political parties, and media, must play proactive roles in supporting counter-terrorism efforts.
Pakistan’s resolve to combat terrorism remains unshakeable, but it requires a cohesive national strategy and support from the international community. The Operation Azm-i-Istehkam underscores the urgency of consolidating counter-terrorism efforts. National security is a shared responsibility, and all segments of society must play their part in defeating the menace of terrorism. The sacrifices made to restore peace must not be in vain, and the state must continue to send a strong message to all adversaries: Pakistan stands united against all forms of terrorism.
The swift conduct of IBOs in KP, which successfully neutralized terrorists involved in heinous attacks, highlights the superior intelligence capabilities and professional standards of Pakistani troops. The recent call by the PM to launch Operation Azm-i-Istehkam should be viewed as a strategic necessity rather than through a politicized lens. Delays in consolidating counter-terrorism efforts could be detrimental to national stability.
According to National Action Plan, provincial governments play a crucial role in eradicating terrorism and extremism. National security is a shared responsibility between federal and provincial governments. The disappointing response of opposition, predominantly PTI on the issue of counter-terrorism operations serves the purpose of forces inimical to the stability of Pakistan. While in power for the third consecutive term in KPK, PTI should introspect its counter-terrorism failures at the provincial level. Zero tolerance against terrorism is the right course to deal with this menace.
The appreciable counter-terrorism track record of the armed forces and intelligence agencies reaffirms Pakistan’s national resolve against terrorism. It is high time for the international community to recognize and address the rogue activities of Indian state institutions supporting terrorism. The prolonged inaction of IEA against anti-Pakistan proxies on Afghan soil could worsen the regional security matrix beyond imagination.
The arrest of high-value terrorists, including Nasarullah, is a major achievement of LEAs. It not only exposes an intricate web of terrorist networks but also highlights the external and internal challenges Pakistan faces. The confessions have provided critical insights into TTP’s operations, their alliances with Baloch separatists, and support they receive from India and elements within IEA.
Pakistan’s resolve to combat terrorism remains unshakeable, but it requires a cohesive national strategy and support from the international community. The Operation Azm-i-Istehkam underscores the urgency of consolidating counter-terrorism efforts. National security is a shared responsibility, and all segments of society must play their part in defeating the menace of terrorism. The sacrifices made to restore peace must not be in vain, and the state must continue to send a strong message to all adversaries: Pakistan stands united against all forms of terrorism.
RAW-backed alliance of TTP and BLA out to target CPEC
By: Durdana Najam | July 04, 2024
India has recently found itself in the international spotlight — for several reasons. One key reason has been the statements excessively critical of the Muslim community made during the election campaign by BJP leaders to sway Hindu votes away from the Congress. The second reason relates to the threats India’s defence and foreign affairs minister issued repeatedly to capture Azad Kashmir, after New Delhi’s unilateral decision to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian constitution that gave the occupied Kashmir an independent status. The third reason concerns India’s recent use of targeted killings of the members of Khalistan movement, through hired assassins. The fourth reason concerns India’s influence on the Taliban government in Afghanistan and its role in fostering an alliance between the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) to sabotage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Many of these actions have, however, backfired.
The BJP lost its majority in the recently concluded general elections, and had to form a coalition government. From Canada to Australia and from the US to Pakistan, governments in every country have taken exception to India’s overstepping of the international legal redline and behaving like a goon. The US had also extradited an Indian national wanted over an attempt to murder a US-Khalistan citizen. As for Azad Kashmir, India’s attempt to sow political instability failed to spark any large-scale disruptions. And as far as the TTP and BLA alliance is concerned, India’s involvement has been badly exposed by none other than the TTP’s Khawaraj Defence Shura Commander Nasrullah alias Molvi Mansoor in a press conference.
Pakistan witnessed an exponential resurgence of terrorism in 2022. Fatalities soared, with around 282 military and police personnel among the 973 total victims. This alarming trend continued into 2023, with 789 terror attacks and counter-terror operations claiming the lives of 545 soldiers, including officers.
Fueling this violence is a new and concerning alliance: a “terror troika” comprised of TTP, BLA and the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP), the regional affiliate of ISIS.
Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Taliban government in Afghanistan of providing safe haven to the militant groups and has demanded on numerous occasions that the Taliban take punitive action against then.
While the TTP leaders have denied using Afghan soil to launch attacks on Pakistan in media interviews, they haven’t refuted the presence of their militants operating within Pakistan.
According to video statements played during a press conference by Balochistan’s Home Minister Mir Ziaullah Langove, TTP’s Khawaraj Defence Shura Commander Nasrullah alias Molvi Mansoor raised fingers at the Indian Intelligence Agency, RAW, for providing full support to the Afghan Taliban government, the TTP and the BLA Majeed Brigade group.
Nasrullah was captured in an intelligence based operation by Pakistan’s law enforcement agencies. This successful operation dismantled terror bases established jointly by the BLA Majeed Bargaid and TTP Khawaraj factions. He previously belonged to Baitullah Mehsud’s group and fled to Afghanistan during Operation Zarb-e-Azab, a Pakistan Army campaign targeting militant strongholds. He also has a history of involvement in attacks on Pakistani security forces along the border regions. As the head of TTP’s Defence Commission, he controlled the financial and administrative operations of the group.
Nasrullah’s capture yielded intriguing information regarding potential external support for undermining China’s economic interests in Pakistan. He said that RAW’s overarching aim was to disrupt the CPEC project. This, according to him, involved building terror hideouts in Khuzdar, Balochistan; sabotaging the Pakistan-China relationship; and carrying out kidnappings for ransom to create a narrative of forced disappearance.
Nasrullah claimed that TTP Chief Noor Wali Mehsud, currently sheltered in Afghanistan, and BLA Majeed Brigade Commander Bashir Zaid have been meeting with RAW officers at the Indian Embassy in Kabul. He asserted that both TTP and BLA have been receiving financial and logistical support from the agency. Furthermore, he alleged that many “disappeared” persons are being held in Afghanistan.
He blamed the BLA for his arrest, suggesting that the organisation did not want any other party to claim credit for their operations or the spoils received.
The TTP it seems may now be in full control of BLA and that all major leadership positions in TTP are held by Mehsuds. These revelations and claims raise serious concerns and warrant further investigation into the external support for terrorist activities, and the motivations behind them.
In this backdrop, the newly launched military operation, Azm-e-Istahkam, unlike the previous ones, should ensure that terrorists do not flee to Afghanistan for regrouping and to strike back when things return to normal — even if it requires crossing into Afghanistan.
Debunking myths: the IEA monolith and Afghanistan transit trade
By: Inam Ul Haque | July 04, 2024
We close this series with debunking the last two myths vis-à-vis IEA and Afghanistan.
Myth No 12. IEA is a monolith. Without deep socio-historic insight into Afghanistan’s segmentary politics, it is easier to consider the Islamic Emirate that evolved from the Afghan Taliban as a monolith. It would be useful to dissect IEA’s religious, ideological, political, cultural, tribal and ethnic profile to understand it well.
First religion and ideology. IEA mostly follows the Hanafi Islam, of taqleedi school of thought, steeped into the Deoband tradition emanating from the chain of Haqqani madrassas in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Briefly, Hanafi is one of the four widely practiced jurisprudence in contemporary Islam, following the fiqh (lawfare) of Imam Abu Hanifa (699-767 AD). Taqleed is the Subcontinent’s version of religious practice, emphasising ‘following’ the clergy as opposed to re-interpretation or ijtihad. Deoband, Saharanpur, UP, India is the alma mater for taqleed in the Subcontinent with pervasive religious influence. Its leaders played a leading rule in Muslim political organisation and education in the 1860s. Haqqani is the nom-de-guerre used by graduates of Darul-Uloom Haqqania, Akora Khattak, KP, Pakistan, and its affiliate madrassahs elsewhere in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Since its inception between Kandahar and Maiwand in eastern Afghanistan in 1990s, Taliban Movement has steered clear of Salafi Islam practised by some Afghan resistance groups (Harkat and Hizb) and Shia influences under Hizb-e-Wahdat. Its alliance with Salafist al-Qaeda, espousing universal appeal for Sharia-based revolutions, was a patron (al-Qaeda)-client (IEA) relationship, that remains tactical in nature, and is nurtured by a curious mix of Islamic brotherhood and the tenets of pashtunwali — the Afghan/Pashtun tribal code. In this universe, religious practice is subservient to tribal, specifically the pashtunwali ethos. IEA recalcitrance on girls’ education and female employment is a case in point.
Within the broader Movement, Kandahar the spiritual head of the Movement is the ideological mover and shaker under the venerated Maulvi Haibatullah Akhundzada, hence my repeated emphasis on religious diplomacy with Kandahar. Kandahar is ideologically puritanical and symbolic. Northern Afghanistan — Khowst, Paktia, Paktika, Nangarhar, etc — bordering Pakistan have remained under the influence of Siraj Haqqani et al. These are formidable fighters making up the bulk of IEA’s military power. Haqqanis voluntarily joined IEA during the 1990s and were not coopted under duress like many other groups. Hence Haqqanis yield influence and their distinct identity within IEA. Puritanical Kandahar and pragmatic Khowst share ‘the need to present a united front to the world beyond Afghanistan’ as an “existential compulsion”. They need to be seen on one-page despite the cited backgrounds and differences.
Second, ethnically the IEA, although predominantly Pashtun (95%), also has a sprinkling of non-Pashtun elements from northern Afghanistan, especially from the Uzbek, Tajik and Turkmen ethnic groups. IEA decided to penetrate northern Afghanistan around 2006 from Farah province, fanning into Nuristan, Badakhshan, etc.
Besides, IEA is also a conglomerate of disparate groups, like Central Asia’s IMU (Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan), China’s ETIM (Eastern Turkestan Islamic Movement), TTP, al Qaeda, Arab fighters, Punjabi Taliban, etc following different ideological strands, and religiosity levels.
Third, culturally IEA is not steeped in equal measure into religious zealotry, as significant renegade elements from the erstwhile Soviet era mujahideen groups, criminals, highway men, brigands and disgruntled government employees form its rank and file. The Movement actually started against the immorality, excesses and cruelty of strongmen and their militias, who had divided Afghanistan into their fiefs after the Soviet pullout in early 1990s. They had established checkpoints all over and would exact taxes and levies and administer punishments. Led by seminary students, the Movement over a period incorporated all segments of Afghan society through negotiations, appeasement, motivation and use of force.
And in this all-male enterprise, there is no female cadre known, other than the female students of madrassahs inside Afghanistan.
Four, IEA mirrors Afghanistan’s tribal mosaic especially in case of its Pashtun cadre. Afghan tribalism emphasises loyalty, following, and the power of collective. Tribal identity is segmentary and results in weak political organisation among Pashtuns as a whole, therefore it is important to hold things together using religion as the much-needed glue. IEA is traditionally populated by clergy namely the Akhunds, the Mojaddedis, the Maulvis, the Sheikhs, etc. Haqqanis of Loya Paktia (grater Paktia) are mainly from Zadran tribe (Mezi subtribe) with their spiritual and military power resident in Pakistan’s north Waziristan District, warranting collaboration with Wazir, Daur and Mahsud tribes on the Pakistani side. Whereas, the Kandahar elite is ‘mainly’ from Hotak (Ghilzai) and Durrani tribes, collaborating with the Suleman Khel, Kakar and Achakzai tribes on Pakistani side of the Durand Line.
Five, politically the IEA has hardliners represented by scholars and clerics; and moderates including the comparatively liberal younger cadre. Whereas the elderly non-yielding conservatives see everything through a spiritual and Islamist prism, emphasising the virtues of jihad and disregarding modern life and its bounties; the younger moderates are more worldly, IT-savvy and image-sensitive. In this see-saw for power and influence, conservatives have the final word. So, in the final analysis, relative opening-up of the Movement to a semblance of modernity would be possible over time in mid to long-term.
Taliban Movement, like all movements, has a lifespan that should be granted, while understanding its compositional diversity, as discussed.
That brings us to Myth No 13. IEA can re-orient the Afghan Transit Trade through the Iranian port of Chabahar, cutting reliance on Karachi and Pakistan. Landlocked Afghanistan heavily relies on transit trade from Pakistan through five joint border crossings at Torkham, Ghulam Khan, Angoor Ada, Spin Boldak and Dand-e-Patan. The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment’s first deputy head, Mohammad Yunus Momand recently claimed development of Wakhan Corridor and Chabahar Port as potential alternatives. India too seeks trade with Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia through Chabahar Port cutting off Karachi and Gwadar. IEA has reportedly committed a $35 million investment in Chabahar.
Whereas such attempts would betray Pakistan’s longstanding goodwill and concessions, it is easier said than done. A tilt towards a sanctioned Iran would compound IEA’s problems of international legitimacy and undermine its residual influence with Pakistan. It is also not possible in the near to mid-term, given that ATT through Pakistan is deeply entrenched in the bordering business elite. These Sunni Pashtun traders may find it hard to trade through a Shiite Iran, that uses leverages much more punishingly than a sympathetic Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Terrorism Quandary
By: Doda Haibitan | July 04, 2024
Terrorism has plagued Pakistan for decades, evolving into a formidable threat that has deeply impacted its society, economy, and political stability. Rooted in historical conflicts and exacerbated by regional dynamics, Pakistan’s struggle against terrorism is a complex narrative that demands a nuanced understanding and multifaceted strategies for resolution.
The genesis of Pakistan’s terrorism challenge can be traced back to the Soviet-Afghan war in the 1980s. During this period, Pakistan, as a frontline state, became deeply involved in supporting Afghan Mujahideen against Soviet forces. This engagement facilitated the rise of militant groups like the Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and others, who later turned their focus towards destabilizing Pakistan itself. The aftermath of these conflicts left a legacy of armed extremism that continues to afflict the region.
The human toll of terrorism in Pakistan has been devastating. Since 2003 alone, over 83,000 lives have been lost to terrorist attacks, underscoring the urgency of effective counterterrorism measures. Beyond the loss of life, terrorism has inflicted profound social and economic repercussions. Displacement, trauma, and the erosion of communal harmony have become pervasive realities for many Pakistanis living in affected regions.
Strengthening judicial frameworks and enacting robust anti-terrorism legislation are imperative in ensuring that perpetrators are held accountable under the rule of law.
In response to escalating terrorist activities, successive Pakistani governments have employed military operations as a primary strategy to root out militant strongholds. Notably, Operation “Azm-i-Istehkam” launched on June 22, aimed at dismantling terrorist networks, exemplifies this approach. However, the efficacy of military operations remains a subject of contentious debate.
Critics argue that while military interventions may yield short-term gains in reclaiming territory and disrupting militant operations, they often come at a high humanitarian cost. The 2014 operation in North Waziristan serves as a poignant example, where civilian casualties, displacement, and infrastructural damage underscored the challenges and ethical dilemmas inherent in such operations.
Despite concerted efforts, Pakistan continues to grapple with formidable challenges in its counterterrorism strategy. One significant hurdle lies in the fragmented support from provincial governments and political factions. Lack of consensus and coordination among stakeholders have at times undermined the effectiveness of national counterterrorism initiatives, leading to polarization and weakening of federal authority.
Moreover, the evolving nature of terrorist tactics demands adaptive responses that extend beyond conventional military operations. Terrorist groups like the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and others have demonstrated resilience and adaptability, leveraging asymmetric warfare tactics to maintain their influence and operational capabilities.
To achieve sustainable progress in combating terrorism, Pakistan must adopt a holistic and inclusive approach that transcends military solutions alone.
Fostering trust and cooperation between communities and security forces is crucial in gathering actionable intelligence and isolating militant sympathizers.
Economic disparities and marginalization often serve as breeding grounds for radicalization. Investing in education, infrastructure, and economic opportunities in conflict-affected areas can mitigate these grievances and undercut extremist recruitment efforts.
Given the transnational nature of terrorism, bolstering cooperation with neighbouring countries, particularly Afghanistan, is essential in disrupting cross-border militant networks and preventing the infiltration of extremist ideologies.
Strengthening judicial frameworks and enacting robust anti-terrorism legislation are imperative in ensuring that perpetrators are held accountable under the rule of law while safeguarding civil liberties and human rights.
Effectively combating terrorism in Pakistan demands a comprehensive and adaptive strategy that acknowledges the interconnectedness of security, development, and governance. While military operations remain a vital component of this strategy, their implementation must be complemented by efforts to address root causes, build community resilience, and foster regional cooperation.
Pakistan stands at a critical juncture in its fight against terrorism. By embracing a holistic approach that prioritizes dialogue, inclusivity, and sustainable development, Pakistan can mitigate the threats posed by extremist ideologies and pave the way for a more secure and prosperous future for its citizens. Only through concerted and collaborative efforts can Pakistan hope to overcome the challenges posed by terrorism and build a resilient society based on peace, justice, and stability.
Will there be a US resolution on polls in IIOK?
By: Asif Mamood| July 04, 2024
With a bipartisan, near-unanimous resolution passed by the US House of Representatives seeking a probe into Pakistan general elections, I find myself grappling with some troubling questions with “Will there be an American resolution on the elections of Occupied Kashmir?”, being the ultimate conundrum.
Pakistan has been an arena of proxy war but never before has it been that evident. This is disconcerting, and worst still, there is no escaping its reverberations. To put it gently, this resolution is a precursor to political concerns rather than an indication of US strength and dedication to democracy. Had this not been the case, the grim situation of Kashmir would not have been met by silence from the US.
Now that the Pakistani parliament has promptly denounced this resolution, let’s hope it will not drive a wedge between the US and Pakistan and if what sources are saying is correct, it will not, for sure.
An International law perspective of Kashmir is quite evident. It can be summarized as follows:
Kashmir is a disputed territory.
It is not the part of Indian Union Territory.
Kashmiris have a right to self-determination.
The fate of Kashmir is to be decided by the people of Kashmir through the UN-held plebiscite.
Any election under Indian supervision cannot be a substitute for the right to self-determination.
The major question at hand is this: How might Lok Sabha elections be held in Kashmir if the region is not a part of India? Isn’t it a flagrant disregard for the UN Security Council’s resolutions and the UN Charter?
Pakistan has been an arena of proxy war but never before has it been that evident.
Indian authorities are targeting Kashmir’s entire socio-political fabric. The Muslim community lacks empowerment. The demographic scene has been completely destroyed. The treatment of Kashmir is akin to that of the Palestinians by Israel. Occupational Constitutionalism has taken more ugly shape of settler colonialism. Human Rights are being denied. The oppressed Kashmiris wait with bated breath if any resolution of the House of Representatives would eventually address their plight.
Kashmir is not part of India. It is an occupied territory. Annexation of an occupied territory is prohibited under Article 2 (4) of the UN Charter. Additionally, the UN Security Council has stated in a resolution that annexing land is prohibited. The ICJ adopted the same stance in its advisory opinion regarding Israel’s Wall. Now, India has effectively annexed Kashmir to its union by force through the revocation of Article 370 of its Constitution. It has also held Indian general elections in the occupied territory, completely disregarding and disrespecting UN resolutions and international law. Shouldn’t a resolution be passed declaring that these elections are unlawful and calling for an investigation into this illicit activity?
There are certain issues that the international community should address.
Can an occupied territory be annexed?
Can an occupied force hold a general election in occupied territory?
Can an occupied territory be included in the electoral college of the occupied force?
Will such an election be legal?
Does it need any probe or not?
Does the occupying power have the absolute freedom to do as it wants in complete disregard of International law?
Although forceful population displacement is explicitly forbidden under Geneva Convention IV, India is freely changing Kashmir’s demographic balance.
According to the Hague Convention, no private property may be seized. (Section 56). Nonetheless, the reality is that the Indian military is occupying almost 6 lakh kanals of land in Jammu and Kashmir. Individuals are losing access to their personal belongings. Just in Srinagar, 175329 kanals of land have been taken from their rightful owners by Indian officials.
The Hague Convention further stipulates that even state property shall be treated as private property and shall not be confiscated. On the contrary, India has grabbed 178005 acres in Kashmir and 25159 acres in Jammu on the pretext that it is state land and it belongs to the Indian government.
Don’t take my word for it, reality speaks volumes of the fact that the concept of Human Rights and Democracy has actually been “weaponized” and is regularly employed to manipulate the policies of certain nations.
The fact that tyrants can be nice and trustworthy at times and democracies can be dubious and unpredictable at other times is a peculiar paradox of the US foreign policy.
Even if Mursi is taken out of his office and hung, the US won’t lose its cool. The US doesn’t care if India defies international law; nevertheless, when its interests require it to pull Pakistan apart, it begins to criticize and raise doubts about the general elections under various pretexts.
Here’s where the crucial question comes in: What is the ultimate goal, the weaponization of democracy or democracy itself?
Mango Diplomacy
By: F.S. Aijazuddin | July 04, 2024
IT was a brave attempt. Our embassy in Washington, after having failed to stem the tsunami of the US Congressional vote on Resolution HR 901 (368 for, seven against) threw a mango party to influence Biden’s faltering administration.
The last time this friendly fruit had been used in our diplomacy was in the 1950s, when some mangoes grown in the Chinese embassy (then in Karachi) were sent to Chairman Mao Zedong.
Later, president Ziaul Haq tried to sweeten Mrs Indira Gandhi’s sourness with lychee juice. She remained unmoved. To her, it tasted of military blanco.
At the recent mango party in DC, the guest of honour — Elizabeth Horst, principal deputy assistant secretary in the State Department — spoke feelingly about the Pak-US “long-standing relationship” as being in “the best place it’s been in years”. She neglected to say that she was there out of official necessity, nor that she was on her way to Sri Lanka as the next US ambassador there.
Is the FO equipped to do its job?
Nor did she dilute the message by the bipartisan US House of Representatives, urging President Joe Biden “to collaborate with Pakistan in upholding democracy, human rights, and the rule of law”. The House assumes that 81-year-old Biden is still compos mentis and can remember where Pakistan is.
Biden has probably forgotten that he came to Lahore on Feb 18 to monitor the 2008 general election. He asked a minister in the interim Punjab cabinet what would be the outcome. He was told: “The parties have to accept its conduct, its consequences, and the novelty of a coalition government.” The results came in. The PPP and PML-N had to form a coalition government. They fell out. The PPP then allied itself with the MQM, ANP and JUI-F.
Sixteen years have passed since the time when the US felt Pakistan was important enough to send three senators there to report on its general elections. Now, if we appear on the State Department’s screen, it is for the wrong reasons.
Resolution HR 901 should not have come as a surprise, either here or in the US. It had been gestating since November 2023, a bipartisan indictment, parented by a Republican from Georgia and a Democrat from Michigan. It emphasised “the importance of free and fair elections, calling for a thorough and independent investigation into any claims of interference or irregularities in Pakistan’s 2024 elections”.
It also “urged Pakistan to uphold democratic and electoral institutions, human rights, and the rule of law, and respect the fundamental guarantees of due process, freedom of press, of assembly, and of speech of the people of Pakistan”. Contestants in Miss Universe pageants have made more convincing appeals for world peace and harmony.
Going further, “the resolution condemned efforts to suppress democratic participation in Pakistan. It specifically denounced harassment, intimidation, violence, arbitrary detention, and restrictions on internet access, as well as any violations of human, civil, or political rights”. Everything, except the stinking kitchen sink.
Our missions in Washington and the UN had enough notice of HR 901 to sandbag against its impact. Our government, awakened from a cipher-induced stupor, reacted by shooting its messengers. It removed our representatives in Washington and New York.
Their replacements have a difficult task ahead. They have to develop a strategy that must anticipate Biden’s funeral without sporting black armbands. They must prepare themselves for the probable (inevitable?) coronation of Donald Trump.
A hurricane of change is blowing through the world’s democracies. Great Britain is likely to have a Labour government after 14 years of continuous Conservatism. In France, Macron watches help-lessly as its electorate oscillates between the far right and far left. Iran’s voters are being asked to choose between hardliner Saeed Jalili and the relatively less conservative Masoud Pezeshkian. The low turnout of Iranian voters reflected their diminished interest.
In such a volatile environment, the natural question is whether our Foreign Office is equipped to do its job. Gone are the days when India’s MEA envied Pakistan’s nimble diplomacy. They begrudged that we got more of a bang for our buck.
Today, our foreign ministry is in the hands of a former chartered accountant. He divides his time between part-time responsibilities as deputy prime minister and his enduring love, the finance ministry.
Some in the foreign ministry think we should not take Resolution HR 901 seriously. Others apprehend that the massive endorsement of it is a warning to our government that we are losing friends faster than a politician sheds principles.
The Chinese, the Saudis, the UAE, and now the US are palpably inching away from us. Isolation, to paraphrase Paul Cezanne, may temper the strong; it is the stumbling block of the uncertain.
From conflict to stability: Pakistan’s ongoing battle against extremism
By: Syed Ali Nawaz Gilani | July 03, 2024
There was a time when terrorists from Karachi to Khyber were actively working and attacking one and all including mosques, schools, government buildings, markets, and even personalities, common and high-ranked persons, by planting bombs or suicide vests. The Pakistan Army, Police personnel, Rangers, and other security forces’ officers and personnel lost their lives to neutralize terrorists who were imperative to maintain law and order in the country. After the heinous act of Terror when Army Public School was attacked in Peshawar, and more than 100 children were martyred; top politicians and military leaders assembled to endorse the “National Security Plan” that sought to eradicate terrorists and their supporters within the country, initiating maneuvering exercises such as Zarb-e-Azb and Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad.
In each of the operation Radd-ul-Fasaad, 37,000 police officials and more than 3,800 persons were trained mostly for the Pakistan police. Many operations were carried out against the terrorists; Thus, more than 350 militants were eliminated. Combined with Operation Zarb-e-Azb, more than 2,700 terrorists mishap were injured and over 300 military men died in one year only. Since the events of 9/11, Pakistan has suffered from this scourge. Unfortunately, the prevalent forms of violence in the present world have become terrorism-related incidents and in over two decades millions of people have been killed and the economy has been drained of more than $1 billion. However, till date, terrorism is still a problem in the nation.
Terrorist incidents continue to be regularly reported in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. In similar events in recent days, 12 soldiers were killed in two different terrorist acts in Kurram and Lucky Marwat last week, and again the problem of law and order emerged as an issue. These constant acts of terrorism have forced the country’s military and political leadership to revert to the National Action Plan, with the goal of wiping out terrorism and reconstructing law and order completely.
From this, the national leadership understands that to have political and economic stability as well as development, there has to be existing law and order. Under the newly formed government and under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Apex Committee sanctioned start of Operation “Determination Stability” to revitalize the ongoing countrywide movement against extremism and terrorism. Speaking to the committee, the Prime Minister did not fail to mention that stability in the economy was impossible in a country that suffered terrorism; investor confidence could not be obtained.
Before, during the Third Pak-China Consultative Meeting on CPEC all political parties in the country showed a positive solidarity which is a good sign. The Chinese Minister Liu Jinchao being in Pakistan maintained that political stability is key to the development process. He stressed thus the need to enhance security provisions to encourage investments stressing the need for institutions and political parties.
It is also important to note that the current Prime Minister also greenlighted a satellite joint venture for the transfer of Chinese industries to Pakistan. The Board of Investment is an important subtopic in Pakistani current affairs and one day an important meeting regarding BOI was chaired by Shahbaz Sharif in the which Prime Minister approved the Joint venture of China and Pakistani companies. He stressed that the government’s primary focus was to attract internal and foreign investment in the country and added that every possible measure was being adopted to facilitate traders/investors in the business society of Pakistan.
Therefore, political parties do not differ much ideologically and politically but act to protect their self-interest where recently, the PPP and PML-N had conflicting interests regarding the 2024 budget. Nevertheless, for Operation “Determination Stability” and gradual accomplishment of economic and political stability, political parties are to perform within the framework of the constitution. The government needs to involve the opposition in Operation “Determination Stability,”; the opposition on its turn has obligations that correspond to the importance of the national interests and should join the government, and contribute to the country’s stability for political benefits.
While on a tour of China, the Prime Minister graced the MoUs between Pakistani and Chinese companies operating in Shenzhen by directing the provision of an update on the implementation session and called for an evaluation of the MoUs on the draft law of special economic zones and one-stop-shop service in accordance with the prevailing circumstances and developments after the visit. There, the Secretary of the Board of Investment said in a briefing that a process had begun for shifting industries of China to Pakistan. Chinese experts are currently being hired to establish the Islamabad Business Facilitation Center being established, while the draft Easy Business Act will be tabled to the Cabinet Committee of Legislative Matters soon enough.
The effectiveness of the “Determination Stability” operation led by the Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif, the requirements of the proper cooperation between all the power institutions with a focus on the development of the country, as well as the expectations set by the Chinese minister, are positively viewed.
Therefore, political parties do not differ much ideologically and politically but act to protect their self-interest where recently, the PPP and PML-N had conflicting interests regarding the 2024 budget. Nevertheless, for Operation “Determination Stability” and gradual accomplishment of economic and political stability, political parties are to perform within the framework of the constitution. The government needs to involve the opposition in Operation “Determination Stability,”; the opposition on its turn has obligations that correspond to the importance of the national interests and should join the government, and contribute to the country’s stability for political benefits.
SCO: A Ray of Hope
By: Muhammad Mehdi | July 03, 2024
Again, the economic conditions of the world are seeing the sunrise of a new era, a new global politics and in this new dawn, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has a key role to play. Trying to understand its impact by limiting it to just one column would not be an appropriate approach. Because its effects are increasing gradually, it is very important to understand every step. SCO is practically led by China and it wants to make the concept of supremacy of one power in the world political system a mere memory of the past by implementing the establishment of other similar organizations.
The analysis should be about the conditions under which these evolutionary strategic changes are taking place and what is the current perception regarding the current world system and what are the fundamental points that the new world system should be based on. When we examine the perception of the post-World War-II system, it is clear that the perception of this system is a successor to the colonial system. And now, because it is easy to occupy by other means instead of direct occupation, this type of occupation is being done. The current situation is that in developing countries, it is a common complaint that a specific strategy is adopted to keep us under control and due to the power politics of the big powers, the weaker countries fall further. Powerful countries are the first to intervene in economic affairs to maintain their hegemony and do everything possible to ensure that the countries under their influence do not succeed in making any economic development that would lead to them coming out of the influence of big countries.
Powerful countries are the first to intervene in economic affairs to maintain their hegemony.
Industrial growth is transformed into decline. Disregarding the accepted political ethics around the world, the countries that are supposed by big powers to be under control are facing sponsoring separatism, extremism and terrorism by big powers. It is unfortunate that to remove this impression, the powers that became the backbone of the world system after the Second World War did not make any effort, but on the contrary, the continuation of such measures is in front of us, from which it is felt that Any organization including the United Nations and the promises made in it have no importance. Especially when the United Nations was trampled to remove Saddam, the little trust that was left in it also collapsed.
Now, in these circumstances, the slogan of Shanghai Spirit has come out from the side of SCO and it is being strongly emphasized by China, the leading country of this organization. The Shanghai Spirit means that the world system, in which the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will have an important status, will not suppress the rights of small or other weak countries by force.
Mutual trust is its main pillar, and thanks to this mutual trust, these countries will jointly form such policies that will open doors of mutual benefit for all. Equality and common development should be sought together by mutual consultation and respecting each other’s culture. The main objective of the SCO is to take joint measures to protect the common interests of the members so that these member countries get strategic autonomy. The special purpose that is visible in this is to interfere with big powers from outside of this region a thing of the past. And for this, the security problems of this region can be taken into their own hands only through cooperation.
To achieve this goal, China is presenting the Global Security Initiative as a guiding initiative, and for this purpose, the mutual differences of SCO member countries should be resolved together. And this point is very important for Pakistan because this organization includes both Pakistan and India, if India is sincere in achieving the objectives of SCO then it should proceed to settle all its issues with Pakistan. At the same time, Pakistan should show deep consideration on how Pakistan should have relations with whom to achieve its interests. Because commitment to SCO should not mean distance from anyone, this goal is difficult, not impossible.
Dealing with TTP
By: Ali Imran Atta | July 03, 2024
With the unanimous approval of every party involved, the prime minister approved a revived along with re-energized national counterterrorism (CT) work through the official launch of Operation Azm-e-Istehkam, symbolizing the national settlements to eradicate the terrorist activity and extremism from the country. There can be no question that the terrorist danger must be neutralized before it becomes stronger. It is a reality that following all prior military operations, insurgent actors have regrouped. Azm-e-Istehkam’s shortcomings must therefore be carefully examined if it is to be a success.
However, the Kabul regime saw them as a comparable entity worthy of dialogue with the Islamabad policy pundits, citing their conversations with the US as a model. Pakistan’s approach towards the TTP or similar militant groups has been consistent, according to the same erroneous premise. The TTP does not fit the conditions for a popular insurgent movement that would warrant political involvement.
Conversely, keeping in mind the Kabul assertion, the alleged insurgent, Noor Wali Mehsud, Ameer recently said that their ‘jihad’ against Pakistan had reached a “decisive stage.” He declared his determination to “liberate their lands and uphold the divine laws therein. Mehsud’s renewed confidence stems from the Afghan Taliban régime’s provision of a haven in Afghanistan land, as well as Al Qaeda’s commitment to mentoring the TTP in its terrorist operation in Pakistan. Pakistan must quickly review its strategy for dealing with the lethal it, which is more thorough, devoted, and battle-hardened than ever before.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should receive the highest priority when it comes to resource allocation for both Counter Terrorism and preventing violent extremism since it is the front-line province.
Beijing’s concerns about the necessity of security in Pakistan appear to have had some influence on the new operation.
But rather than explaining, this begs more questions. Large-scale activities began in 2008, in a different context. At the time, the TTP controlled the area, and operations were started to drive out the extremists and impose the “writ of the state” coupled with widespread population displacement. According to what little has been reported in the media thus far, the TTP has not been occupying areas in the same manner.
Renowned Chinese war strategist, Sun Tzu emphasizes attacking the enemy’s strategy as the most important aspect of war preparation. As a result, Pakistan’s priority in beating the TTP is supposed to be to preemptively negate their predicted terrorist tactic. This is best accomplished by focusing our national reaction on the following basic elements: creating a setting in Pakistan helpful to a successful national counterterrorism work; an external dimension aimed at preventing the alleged groups from using Afghanistan as a haven, sustained, and working kinetic measures; and a comprehensive, well-resourced, non-kinetic strategy. It may be common sense to say that a struggling and weak nation will find it hard to counter a severe threat to its security. But unfortunately, that is how Pakistan looks.
Social cohesion is at an all-time low, the economy is in terrible shape and only growing worse, and political division is unprecedented. All of this weakens one’s resolve and fighting skills against terrorism. Consequently, Pakistan must first put its own home to combat the deadly binding.
This includes resolving political polarization, easing the economic hardships of the average citizen, and working toward the creation of a society with greater unity by establishing a government that the people trust and enhancing accountability, dedication to basic liberties, and the rule of law. Secondly, the exterior component is vital since the TTP and Al Qaeda’s haven in Afghanistan serve as their focal point. To impose restrictions on this haven for terrorist organizations, Islamabad must engage directly with the Kabul regime on a bilateral, regional, and international.
A cautious strategy should be implemented on both sides to increase the Taliban’s incentive to limit the two terrorist organizations’ operations within their borders. It is important to emphasize that the terrorists’ resurgence in Afghanistan represents an issue for regional security. Islamabad may utilize the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s (SCO) forum, which is tasked with implementing counterterrorism through the Region Anti-Terrorist Structure. Pakistan can use various international forums, such as the UN, to inform people throughout the world about the ramifications of Al Qaeda and TTP strongholds in Afghanistan for international security.
It is important to note that, although the TTP and Al Qaeda benefit from having a sanctuary in Afghanistan, this is also a constraint because as part of the 2020 Doha Agreement, the Taliban promised not to allow their territory to be utilized for terrorist attacks against any other nation. Thus, one of the two groups’ main objectives would be to seize some land in Pakistan and declare they were not headquartered in Afghanistan. Our top aim should be to stop the TTP from taking over land in Pakistan, especially near the Afghan border, to undermine this tactic. Islamabad must examine why the armed forces efforts in ex-Fata and Swat, which effectively suppressed the TTP between 2014 and 2020, were unable to stop the group’s resurgence starting in 2021.
The US pullout from Afghanistan in August 2021 was one of the factors. The other was our failure to recognize that, for military operations to be long-term and effective, they needed to be accompanied by the development of local law enforcement and other civilian departments’ capacity so that, eventually, when the military leaves or becomes less involved, the civilian departments would be prepared to take over.
Consequently, increasing societal resilience to counter terrorist attacks is just as vital as strengthening governmental institutions’ capabilities to combat terrorism. Islamabad policymakers must keep in mind, how the Swat population compelled the TTP to retreat into Afghanistan in 2022. It is necessary to build and fortify the people’s resistance to violent extremism. The best way to do it is with non-kinetic methods.
The UN has recommended a wide range of non-kinetic measures to counter terrorism and prevent violent extremism. However, in Pakistan, some extent improving governance, decreasing political marginalization, boosting socioeconomic opportunities, and dismantling social networks that support violent extremism need to be more focused. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa should receive the highest priority when it comes to resource allocation for both Counter Terrorism and preventing violent extremism since it is the front-line province. Pakistan can benefit from global efforts such as the Radicalization Awareness Network of the European Union in this area. Islamabad needs to produce a plan that combines military and civilian actions to confront this growing threat. The National Action Plan requires revitalization and redoubled enforcement.
Our security personnel must be skilled in asymmetric warfare, which includes gathering intelligence, fighting in urban areas, and identifying and neutralizing IEDs. A comprehensive approach to counterterrorism requires the support of well-trained and well-equipped police forces in addition to the military. Equally important is making sure that there is nowhere for militants and those who support them to hide. This entails close observation of madrassahs, educational institutions, and other locations where radicals might congregate.
Our priority — Afghanistan or Pakistan?
By: Shazia Anwer Cheema | July 03, 2024
It was January 2022 when I penned a piece “Who we can blame now? — Is narrative a ‘need-based’ element?” I got heat from the redundant steam engine run by the communication and media management system in Pakistan. That was the time when former prime minister Imran Khan was resettling terrorists inside Pakistan after inviting them from Afghanistan and I had written that the invitation to terrorists would weaken the narrative that the State established since the Army Public School massacre and would encourage terrorists to spread their ‘message’ among youth.
I was of the view that terror attacks had increased and Afghan Taliban were responsible for the situation. Now who we would blame that during the US-backed era of President Ashraf Ghani we were building a narrative that India was behind the scenes and Ghani was facilitating the TTP on using the Afghan soil against Pakistan! The situation has worsened since this article was published, two and a half years back. Who to blame now is no more a question because Defence Minister Khwaja Asif has informed us that the Afghan Taliban are behind the acts of terrorism against Pakistan. This answer costs us two long years and sacrifices of thousands of Pakistanis. I hope this answer would trickle down to all, but I fear that certain communication and narrative-building elements within the state machinery would not let this loud and clear message of the defence minister get the attention that it deserves because the redundant steam engine that runs communication and media management system in Pakistan is driven by the majority of those who consider Taliban a saviour and a better social system than democracy. The apparent failure of democratic governments provides peat to Taliban lovers as inequality within the social groups is increasing — the poor are becoming poorer and the rich are becoming richer. In simple words, the failure of political, administrative and justice machinery is helping the narrative of the radicalised social system introduced by the Afghan Taliban in Afghanistan.
Semioticians, political philosophers and sociologists believe that the State must not ignore certain social and psychological circumstances being used by radicalised minds against the State; and while designing a strategy to win over radicalised elements, the State must nullify the motivation of the fighters by placing stronger “narrative” than offered by the radicalised fighters (TTP, etc) to recruit youth. Narrative building has always been a serious problem in Pakistan because we have been changing our priorities and consider narrative as a “need-based” element. From a liberal Pakistan of the 60s to a Jihadi Pakistan of the 80s, our journey has gone through phases of moderate enlightenment of the first decade of the 21st century. Additionally, our communication machinery lacks expertise, and generalised administration is running it. We do not find 21st century techniques for narrative building in our system and we currently using cyclostyled press releases and media briefings. The media managers of the State have the same old mindset that believes in ‘reactionary statements’ instead of producing and pitching their statements (narratives) and we are just firefighters and nothing more and nothing less. I fear Pakistan still needs to know that narrative building is an intellectual work which cannot be established only through statements and political moves. Steven Arthur Pinker, a Canadian-American cognitive psychologist, writes that the mind best understands facts when they are woven into a conceptual fabric, such as a narrative, mental map, or intuitive theory, and disconnected facts in the mind are like unlinked pages on the web.
Alas, our media is also not inclined to live in the 21st century because of a lack of training and an in-depth world view! It deals with terrorism as a ‘domestic’ issue while forgetting that terrorism is linked with global networking, and any incident of terrorism could have its linkage as far as the Middle East or North America
Since we know and accept that Afghanistan launched terrorism against Pakistan, have the State’s media managers released any toolkit (sensitive but credible information about operations against Pakistan launched by the Afghan interim government) to journalists? As a student of Philosophy of Communication, I believe the State should come out of shyness and share that yesteryear’s ‘heroes’ are adversaries and their target is now Pakistan after winning Afghanistan back with the help of many among us. Furthermore, the State must keep an eye on those narrative builders among our media who had been the mouthpieces of the Afghan Taliban in the past because this cadre is ruling the television screens of Pakistan and previous governments promoted them due to ‘need-based’ arrangements in the past. Without general overhauling in media management, Pakistan may not win this war of narrative and communication and the State has already seen the reaction of these pro-Afghanistan security experts when the authorities clamped down on the Pak-Afghan border smuggling.
I believe that the State should understand that we are going through the phase of ‘now or never’ and it is time to decide what our top priority is: Afghanistan or Pakistan?
Opening opportunities for development
By: Talat Masood | July 03, 2024
The significant progress made in recent years in science and technological developments has led to a comprehensive understanding of the universe and that of the tinniest of living organisms.
In 1966, Luna 9 achieved the first soft landing initiating the exploration of space and the development of long-range rockets for civilian purposes. In 1969, another milestone was achieved with the US’s Apollo 11 first human landing. These developments triggered considerable interest in space and in the decades since many nations have been actively involved in making their contribution to the development of lunar orbiters and landers. And recently, in January 2024, four nations — Russia, the US, India and China — have successfully landed on the moon.
These are no ordinary achievements and have opened new vistas of knowledge and created infinite opportunities for mankind to benefit itself. Countries with adequate scientists and engineers and a strong industrial and technological infrastructure will be better placed to participate and benefit from these developments. Greater level of interest in space is likely to lead to new discoveries which will translate into expanding the frontiers of knowledge and more comprehensive understanding of our universe.
These advances and rapid developments in other sectors further reinforce the necessity of according high priority to science and engineering studies and buildup of a viable technological and industrial base in country.
These progresses do not seem to have aroused the excitement in our country compared to what was witnessed across the globe. This is not surprising as the country’s leadership orientation and focus is inwards with scant interest in technological developments and expanding frontiers of science-based knowledge. On the contrary, in India and South East Asian countries, the event of the landing of the robot on the moon was keenly followed. There was an additional reason for the excitement among India’s scientific community as they have a fairly comprehensive space programme. These developments indicate that the countries that are focusing on exploring and exploiting the potential in space will remain in the lead. Not only would it expand the frontiers of knowledge about the universe but open up new opportunities in the economic field.
Space is opening up new opportunities and areas of interest for countries to cooperate. Whereas the flip side is that these developments are generating competition and rivalry for capture and monopoly of resources.
Pakistan’s civil and military leadership is not oblivious of these transformational developments. It has been conscious of the significance that exploration of space offers. But it would depend how much of progress we make in this field. One aspect that is central to these developments is that it requires a strong base of competent engineers and scientist and adequate allocation of resources. Pakistan however despite its weak economy and limited resources has made progress in this field. But far more could be achieved if sufficient resources and wider range of expertise in critical fields were available. Progress in space and in other scientific and technological endeavours largely depends on the availability of qualified and experienced scientist and engineers and their better utilisation.
It will also depend on the transitions taking place within the country. Major achievements and progress in technology and scientific development is related to the standard of education, allocation of resources and the priority accorded to these critical issues. In all these areas we are lagging behind. Our standard of education is far from satisfactory. The very fact that a very large percentage of the population (over 20%) of ours cannot read or write should have raised alarm bells but fails to stir the national conscience.
No country can aspire for the well-being of its people and an appropriate position in the comity of nations without a self-sustaining and a growing economy. But this is greatly facilitated if there is political stability and a peaceful environment. Pakistan continues to suffer from weak democratic ethos that gives rise to political instability and adversely affects the economy. We would be closing our eyes to the hard reality that the country’s disturbed political situation, weak democratic ethos and fighting between political parties has been partly responsible for the weak state of the economy.
The recent statement by the finance minister that Pakistan would no more be looking up to the IMF or other international aid agencies for financial support is encouraging. And one hopes that with policy changes and practice of strict financial discipline this would be achievable. It is, however, to be seen if the top leadership would support the finance minister in this laudable endeavour. What is probably not realised is that Pakistan’s power potential and its standing abroad is adversely affected by its prolonged financial dependence. The highly detrimental fallout especially on the poor segment of the population is another factor of serious concern.
Similarly, addressing other weaknesses such as the emancipation of women, improving literacy rates among girls and allowing women greater opportunities in contributing to the economy can be transformational. But for addressing these weaknesses we need a leadership that is committed and conscious of its obligations to all of its population.
Another area that needs correction is that political power should strictly be subject to the will of the people. Distortion and interference in political issues by outside agencies hopefully would end so that strong democratic traditions could be set. Democratic voices should be heard and encouraged. Pakistan is still in that stage where there is a continuous struggle for winning the hearts and minds of people. For this we need a leadership that is people oriented. It may be wishful thinking but we certainly need leaders that genuinely believe in meritocracy and pursuing democratic practices. They must have due regard for the views of the opposition and tolerate theirs. This might sound simple but as our past and present will bear out, we have failed to embrace these virtues.
Unless there is a genuine realisation amongst our leadership to pursue these goals the country will continue to drift and remain bound by the dictates of IMF and other donors.
Holistic Diplomacy with Afghanistan
By: Shamikh Jehangir | July 03, 2024
Pakistan and Afghanistan’s straining relationship is not surprising given their history. However, things seem to have reached a new low recently. The recent Taliban government has made themselves out to be very difficult neighbours and has proven to become a challenge of engagement for Pakistan due to their extreme stances and uncooperative nature. However the blame cannot be fully put on either Pakistan or Afghanistan for this current relationship. I believe that the United States has considerably contributed to souring the relations between these two Muslim countries. After the September 11 attacks, the United States designed, mobilised, and implemented a grand narrative with the war against terrorism at its core, which had the consequence of dragging countries such as Pakistan into the midst of it.
The US’s aggressive approach did not leave nations many options for neutrality. Refusing to actively participate and support the new American policies runs the risk of incurring the wrath of the hegemonic United States in the form of sanctions, halting a nation’s economic development and international standing. A clear example of this draconic stand is the Iranian case, which was one of the states that opposed the United States and was therefore severely punished and buried in sanctions that still face repercussions to this day. During these times Pakistan found itself in a situation where, due not only to the aforementioned factor, maintaining neutrality could not be an option.
The second reason, apart from the American intransigence, was India’s strong vocal support of the US which meant a possible Pakistani neutrality might threaten their standing internationally and from a militaristic viewpoint as well since the country heavily relies on the Americans for aid. Thus Pakistan cooperated by allowing the United States to have military bases on Pakistani soil as the US invaded Afghanistan and provided extra military support in specific instances. This support was given in exchange for short-term monetary relief and economic aid which at the time seemed satisfactory but due to a lack of accountability, has not yielded any long-term benefits. The most glaring side-effect of this decision was the immediate antagonization of a neighbouring country i.e. Afghanistan. These strained relations have resulted in a national security threat that has plagued the country for over a decade. The most vivid example was the Peshawar School Attack in 2014 in which 124 children of Army Public School were killed in Peshawar. Pakistan has made several attempts at diplomatically engaging with Afghanistan, such as Pakistan’s recent pledge of $28 million in humanitarian aid to Afghanistan, as well as their attempts to diplomatically resolve their border disputes despite Afghanistan’s aggressive stance.
Another factor in the failures of public diplomacy by Pakistan is an inconsistency with their foreign policy. While Pakistan wishes to engage with Afghanistan as seen through the aid mentioned before, the Afghan refugee crisis and Pakistan’s handling of that issue has unintentionally become a source of ire in the ties between the two countries with the Pakistani government ordering the return of 1.7 million Afghan refugees. This situation obviously deserves to be analysed from a nuanced perspective and is not as black and white as it seems however it did negatively affect the Afghan state’s perception of Pakistan. Although a major contributor to the current sour relations, I believe the biggest catalyst that led up to this point was the United States dragging Pakistan into their grand designs.
Although, through US support, Pakistan was able to obtain billions of dollars, ultimately they were unable to funnel that successfully in the development of the country and only deepened their debt crisis, rendering the aid moot. In addition to that, the nation managed to antagonise one of their neighbouring countries which increased the threat to Pakistan’s national security. So, in the long-term, Pakistan’s involvement in the war on terror has not been beneficial, especially from a geopolitical perspective, and only benefited the United States.
Pakistan’s approach of patience and preferring peaceful engagement is, in my opinion, the correct one. Pakistan must employ more efficient strategies of public diplomacy and engagement to improve relations with Afghanistan. To achieve that goal Pakistan must have its foreign policy in line with their public diplomacy objectives. These two aspects cannot be in conflict if public diplomacy is to be made successful. In this growing world of globalisation Pakistan must learn to effectively manoeuvre itself so that it can become a nation that is able to carry out its foreign policy successfully instead of being swept up by the foreign policy of superpowers like the United States. Currently, Pakistan has to worry about defence concerns from both India as well as Afghanistan. By improving diplomatic relations with Afghanistan through public diplomacy methods, Pakistan will be able to greatly ease its border concerns and allow itself to gain a geostrategic foothold in the region once more.
Litmus Test for India’s Democracy
By: Brigadier (R) Haris Nawaz | July 03, 2024
The Human Rights Foundation’s (HRF) “2023 Dictators’ Playbook” provides a chilling account of how authoritarian regimes suppress dissent by stripping citizens of their rights and nationality. This analysis offers a parallel to the policies and actions under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration, which has been increasingly characterized by its alignment with Hindutva ideology—a form of Hindu nationalism. This shift towards authoritarianism raises significant concerns about the future of democracy in India.
Hindutva, promoted by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), seeks to establish Hindu cultural hegemony in India. Modi, a long-time member of the RSS, has aligned his policies with this ideology since his election as Prime Minister in 2014. His regime has been marked by an aggressive push towards making India a Hindu nation, marginalizing religious and ethnic minorities, particularly Muslims. One of the most controversial steps taken by Modi’s government is the enactment of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in 2019. The CAA provides a pathway to Indian citizenship for non-Muslim immigrants from Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Afghanistan, thereby explicitly excluding Muslims. Coupled with the National Register of Citizens (NRC), which aims to identify illegal immigrants in India, these policies have disproportionately affected Muslims, rendering them stateless and vulnerable to detention. Modi’s government has also been accused of systematically suppressing dissent. Journalists, activists, and critics of the government face harassment, arrests, and intimidation. The use of draconian laws like the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) to detain activists without trial has become increasingly common. Prominent intellectuals and human rights activists, such as Sudha Bharadwaj and Anand Teltumbde, have been imprisoned under dubious charges of terrorism and sedition. The government’s crackdown on protests, particularly those led by students and civil society against the CAA and NRC, highlights its intolerance for dissent. The police’s heavy-handed response to the 2020-2021 farmers’ protests further underscores this trend. Modi’s regime has also been criticized for undermining India’s democratic institutions. The judiciary, media, and election commission have faced allegations of bias and erosion of independence. The government’s influence over these institutions has raised concerns about the integrity of India’s democracy.
For instance, the abrupt transfer of Justice Muralidhar, who criticized the Delhi police’s inaction during the 2020 Delhi riots, underscores the judiciary’s vulnerability to executive pressure. Similarly, the Modi administration’s tight control over mainstream media, achieved through financial incentives and coercion, has stifled independent journalism. Economic policies under Modi’s regime have also contributed to social instability. The demonetization initiative in 2016, aimed at curbing black money, led to economic disruption and hardship for millions, particularly in the informal sector. The implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) has faced criticism for its complexity and impact on small businesses. As Modi enters his third term, the 2024 elections will serve as a critical test for India’s democracy. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) performance in the elections, which was notably weaker compared to its previous tenure, indicates growing public dissatisfaction. This presents a crucial opportunity for the political opposition and civil society to challenge the BJP’s dominance and advocate for a more inclusive and democratic India. This election result has caused a big setback to Modi’s Nefarious design to get a 2/3 majority to enact draconian laws against minorities, particularly Muslims. Indian moderate population has rejected Modi’s slogan “AB KI BAR 400 PAR”
The opposition, however, faces significant challenges. The BJP’s robust organizational structure, financial resources, and control over media narratives give it a considerable advantage. Moreover, the fragmentation and lack of a cohesive strategy among opposition parties weaken their ability to mount an effective challenge though the BJP hate policy against Muslims supported opposition to get a vote against BJP hate policy. Civil society and grassroots movements will play a vital role in this context. The farmers’ protests, which forced the government to repeal controversial farm laws, demonstrate the potential of sustained, organized resistance. Similar mobilization against policies that threaten democratic values and minority rights will be crucial.
Under Narendra Modi, India has seen a significant shift towards authoritarianism, driven by the Hindutva ideology. Policies targeting minorities, suppression of dissent, erosion of democratic institutions, and economic mismanagement have all contributed to this trend. Modi’s third term will be a decisive period for India, testing the resilience of its democracy and the ability of its people and political opposition to reclaim democratic space and uphold the country’s pluralistic ethos. The global community and human rights organizations must continue to monitor and support efforts to safeguard democracy in India, ensuring that the world’s largest democracy does not succumb to authoritarianism. This includes international advocacy, diplomatic pressure, and support for grassroots movements within India that promote democratic principles and human rights. The erosion of democratic norms in India under Modi is not just a domestic issue but a global concern. As a significant player on the world stage, India’s shift towards authoritarianism could embolden similar movements in other democracies. Therefore, the international community’s response will be crucial in setting a precedent for defending democratic values globally.
Moreover, Indian citizens must remain vigilant and active in their pursuit of democratic integrity. Civil society organizations, independent media, and ordinary citizens need to continue their advocacy for transparency, accountability, and inclusiveness in governance. The lessons from other nations highlighted in the HRF’s playbook underscore the importance of resilience and solidarity among the populace in the face of authoritarian tendencies.
While Modi’s third term poses significant challenges, it also presents an opportunity for renewal and reaffirmation of democratic principles in India. The country’s rich history of pluralism and democratic engagement provides a strong foundation for resisting authoritarianism and building a more inclusive and just society. The coming years will be critical in determining whether India can uphold its democratic values or will continue its descent into a Hindutva-driven dictatorship. This hate policy against minorities will pave for the final disintegration of India which is mired in minorities’ rights and the Naxalite movement in the northeast of India, which are likely to go out of control of Indian, unprofessional, untrained armed forces who are only capable of killing innocent unarmed Kashmiri Muslims, women, children, and old people. If the Soviet Union with so much military might can disintegrate into 15 states, then I am certain that the Modi government will finally break India into different states in the future to come with the most vulnerable, IIJOK and Khalistan movements.
Commercializing Research
By: Atta-ur-Rahman | July 03, 2024
A study of Scopus, the world’s most comprehensive, multidisciplinary database of scholarly literature, data, and analytics reveals astonishingly positive figures about the progress made in the quality and quantum of research by Pakistan in the last 20 years.
Pakistan was ranked a lowly 48th in the world in the year 2000 in the field of agriculture. In 2023, it was ranked 15th in the world, a huge improvement. In economics, it was ranked a poor 96th in the world. In 2023, it was ranked at a remarkable 17th in the world. In physics, Pakistan has progressed from 59th position in the world ranking to 23rd position.
In biochemistry/microbiology, we have progressed from 62nd to 21st position in world rankings. In chemical engineering, we have improved from the 63rd position to the 20th position in the world. These are no mean achievements, and we can be rightly proud of them, despite the turbulence faced by the higher education sector due to slashed government funding during the last 10 years.
No country in the world has made such spectacular progress in research quality and output in a short period of 20 years. This has happened because of the quality-focused reforms introduced by us in the higher education sector during 2000-2008 when I was federal minister of science and technology and later founding chairman of the HEC. The presence of such luminaries as Dr Akram Sheikh and Dr Sohail Naqvi in the HEC and the Planning Commission facilitated the transformation.
The primary focus of the HEC programmes was to develop high-quality faculty. To achieve this, thousands of our brightest students were sent abroad to leading universities in the US and Europe for PhD and post-doctoral training. The world's largest Fulbright programme was launched to facilitate the training of our students in top US universities. Second, job placements were ensured upon their return. Third, returning students were offered research grants of up to $100,000, which they could apply for one year before their return to Pakistan. They also received free access to international literature through a digital library.
Additionally, a unique scheme provided free access to sophisticated instruments across the country, with analytical charges covered by the HEC. Quality measures included split PhD programmes involving collaboration and co-supervision with professors from reputable foreign universities, extensive coursework requirements, PhD thesis assessments by foreign professors etc. To address quality assurance, a network of Quality Assurance Cells was established in universities.
Despite the remarkable progress made by Pakistan in research, we remain a relatively backward country with little impact of this research on socio-economic development. What else must we do to translate research into commercial product and process development? There are twelve concrete steps that we must now take to build on our remarkable research progress.
First, strong intellectual property (IP) laws and an effective judicial system to quickly resolve disputes are crucial for protecting inventors' rights, encouraging innovation, and ensuring that researchers can profit from their discoveries.
Second, developing a skilled workforce is another critical step. Education systems must produce technically skilled individuals capable of developing and commercializing new technologies. This involves high-quality STEM education, vocational training, and continuous professional development.
Third, creating innovation clusters can significantly enhance the commercialization process. These clusters bring together research institutions, startups, and established companies to collaborate on technology development. Silicon Valley in the United States serves as a prime example, housing major tech companies like Google and Apple alongside numerous startups and research institutions like Stanford University, fostering a vibrant ecosystem of innovation.
Fourth, technology parks integrated into university systems with suitable infrastructure and funds for meaningful joint projects with industries are essential. There are many excellent examples of such parks internationally. The Technology Park at the Pak Austria Fachhochschule in Haripur Hazara set up by us is a good example.
Fifth, government grants for commercializing university research with potential play a pivotal role in supporting research and development projects, from early-stage research to commercialization. These grants support pilot plant-level upscaling, and preparation of bankable feasibility studies, and they often target high-risk, high-reward projects that might not attract private investment. The European Union's Horizon 2020 programme, for instance, has funded thousands of research projects, such as the Graphene Flagship, aimed at taking graphene from laboratories to commercial applications. This is an excellent programme that we could emulate in Pakistan.
Sixth, encouraging public-private partnerships leverages the strengths of both sectors to drive innovation. Governments can provide funding and infrastructure, while private companies bring expertise and market access. Fostering entrepreneurship and startups is vital for transforming research into viable businesses. This involves supporting entrepreneurship through angel investments, incubators, accelerators, and mentorship programmes, and access to funding. A strong venture capital ecosystem is necessary to provide the funding required for startups to scale their innovations.
Seventh, Technology Transfer Offices (TTOs) are essential in helping researchers commercialize their discoveries. These offices offer services like patenting, licensing, and business development, often working closely with industry partners.
Eighth, streamlining regulatory approvals is essential for ensuring that new products can reach the market quickly without compromising safety or quality. Efficient regulatory processes include clear guidelines and fast-tracking procedures for innovative technologies. Singapore's Health Sciences Authority (HSA), for example, offers clear regulatory pathways for medical devices and pharmaceuticals, enabling companies like Medtronic and Abbott to bring new health technologies to market swiftly.
Ninth, implementing tax incentives for R&D activities encourages companies to invest in innovation. These incentives can include tax credits, deductions, and accelerated depreciation for research expenditures. The 15-year tax incentive introduced by us in 2001 for the IT industry when I was federal minister is an excellent example. Such incentives must be introduced to promote the manufacture and export of high-tech products.
Tenth, building advanced infrastructure, including high-speed internet, research facilities, and manufacturing capabilities within private enterprises, is crucial for the development and production of new technologies.
Eleventh, there is a need to formulate a National Innovation Policy with a clear strategic plan for implementation in a time-targeted manner. The funds required for the implementation of such a plan must be provided by the government and this should be impregnated into the strategic vision of all ministries.
Twelfth, and most importantly, all of the above cannot be done without an honest, technologically competent and visionary government. All ministers and secretaries must be top technocrats in the country who understand the importance of transitioning to a strong technology-driven knowledge economy.
By addressing these twelve steps systematically and comprehensively, Pakistan can effectively translate research into commercial products, driving economic growth through the manufacture and export of high-technology goods and services.
Child Labour in Pakistan
By: Zaimal Arif | July 02, 2024
Despite constitutional protections, child labour remains a pervasive and troubling issue in Pakistan. Article 11 of the Pakistani Constitution strictly prohibits forced labour, while Article 24 disallows employment of children below the age of 14. Yet, the enforcement of these laws remains woefully inadequate, with the problem of child labour worsening as millions of children are forced into exploitative conditions.
Child labour in Pakistan is an issue of enormous scale and complexity. Estimates suggest that around 12 million children are engaged in child labour across the country. These children are visible in various sectors: sweeping floors in affluent households, serving tea in roadside hotels, begging on the streets, working at petrol pumps, and toiling in brick kilns.
The agricultural sector alone employs a large proportion of these child workers, where they assist in planting and harvesting crops. The conditions in which these children work are often harsh and dangerous, robbing them of their childhood and exposing them to physical, emotional, and sexual abuse.
The presence of child labour is a direct violation of several fundamental rights enshrined in both national and international frameworks. The International Labour Organization (ILO) defines child labour as work that deprives children of their childhood, potential, and dignity, and is harmful to physical and mental development. Pakistan, as a signatory to various international conventions, including the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child, is obligated to protect children from economic exploitation and hazardous work.
Yet, the reality is starkly different. In 2021, a significant number of Pakistani children were found working in conditions that are far from safe or conducive to their development. These children are often subjected to long working hours, poor wages, and hazardous environments. Many are exposed to toxic substances, heavy machinery, and physically demanding tasks without any protective measures.
Child labour is not just about economic exploitation; it also involves severe abuse and exploitation. The case of Fatima, a 10-year-old girl who was sexually abused and murdered while working, highlights the extreme vulnerabilities faced by child labourers. Tragically, Fatima’s case is not an isolated incident. Numerous children in Pakistan face similar fates, working in environments where they are vulnerable to abuse and violence.
The exploitation extends beyond physical abuse to emotional and psychological trauma. Children in labour are often subjected to harsh treatment, verbal abuse, and a lack of any nurturing or supportive environment. These experiences leave deep scars, affecting their mental health and future prospects.
One of the most devastating impacts of child labour is the deprivation of education. Article 25A of the Pakistani Constitution guarantees free and compulsory education for all children aged 5 to 16. However, more than 26 million children in Pakistan are out of school, many of whom are engaged in child labour.
Education is a fundamental right and a critical pathway to breaking the cycle of poverty. Yet, for many children in Pakistan, this pathway is blocked by the economic necessity to work. Families often rely on the income generated by their children, making it difficult for them to prioritize education. As a result, children miss out on the opportunity to acquire the skills and knowledge necessary for better employment opportunities in the future.
The persistence of child labour in Pakistan is closely linked to the country’s socioeconomic conditions. Poverty is a primary driver, forcing families to rely on the additional income that child labour provides. In many cases, middle-class parents, unable to afford school fees, are compelled to send their children to work instead of school.
Furthermore, the lack of robust social safety nets exacerbates the situation. Limited access to social services such as healthcare and welfare programs leaves families with few alternatives but to engage their children in labour. The failure to address these underlying socioeconomic issues perpetuates the cycle of child labour and poverty.
Societal attitudes and cultural norms also play a significant role in the persistence of child labour. In some communities, child labour is accepted as a norm, with little awareness or recognition of the rights of children. This cultural acceptance makes it challenging to combat child labour and change attitudes towards children’s roles and rights.
Constitutional provisions against child labour are clear, but their implementation remains a significant challenge.
Additionally, gender discrimination exacerbates the issue, with girls often being more vulnerable to exploitation and abuse. Girls are frequently employed as domestic workers, caregivers, or are even forced into early marriages, further limiting their educational and developmental opportunities.
Addressing the issue of child labour in Pakistan requires a comprehensive and multi-faceted approach. Legal reforms alone are not sufficient; there must be a concerted effort to enforce existing laws and regulations effectively. This includes stricter penalties for violators, regular inspections of workplaces, and a robust monitoring mechanism to track the implementation of child labour laws.
Moreover, improving access to education is crucial. The government must invest in building and maintaining schools, especially in rural and underserved areas. Financial incentives such as scholarships, free uniforms, and meals can encourage families to send their children to school rather than to work.
Social protection programs are also essential to support families in need and reduce their dependence on child labour. This can include cash transfers, healthcare services, and livelihood programs that provide alternative sources of income.
Civil society organizations play a critical role in advocating for the rights of children and raising awareness about the issue of child labour. NGOs and community groups can provide support services, run awareness campaigns, and work directly with affected families to offer alternatives to child labour.
The international community also has a responsibility to support Pakistan in its efforts to combat child labour. This includes technical assistance, funding for education and social programs, and sharing best practices from other countries that have successfully reduced child labour.
Child labour in Pakistan is a severe violation of children’s rights, perpetuating cycles of poverty and denying millions of children their right to a safe, healthy, and educated future. The constitutional provisions against child labour are clear, but their implementation remains a significant challenge. To combat this issue effectively, Pakistan must prioritize the protection, education, and empowerment of its children through comprehensive legal, educational, and social measures. Only then can the nation hope to provide a brighter future for its youngest citizens, ensuring they grow up in an environment that nurtures their potential and dignity.
Addressing child labour requires collective action from the government, civil society, and the international community to create a safe and supportive environment for all children. It is not just a legal obligation but a moral imperative to safeguard the future of the nation’s children.
Prioritizing National Interest for Sustainable Progress
By: M Fazal Elahi | July 02, 2024
Pakistan finds itself at a pivotal moment in its history, where achieving sustainable progress and development hinges crucially on the collective determination of all stakeholders to prioritize the national interest above personal agendas. This transformative journey demands that political parties, essential state institutions, and societal leaders transcend self-interest, set aside prejudices, and forsake personal gains for the greater good of the nation. Pakistan can effectively address its burgeoning socio-economic challenges and pave the way for a prosperous future only through a unified commitment to the national interest.
Pakistan is a country blessed with immense potential but beset by numerous challenges that seriously hinder its progress. Today, Pakistan faces critical issues such as economic disparities, political instability, security threats, social inequalities, and governance inefficiencies. These sensitive issues are compounded by a relentless struggle for power and resources among competing factions, often at the expense of broader national objectives-social, economic, and political. Unfortunately, this fragmented approach not only severely undermines development efforts but also contribute to instability and discontent among the populace.
It is widely acknowledged that political parties play a pivotal role in shaping the democratic landscape and governance framework of a country. In Pakistan, like elsewhere in the democratic world, political parties have a crucial influence on the country’s governance. However, in this region, political parties often prioritize short-term electoral gains and partisan interests, which can obscure the long-term national agenda. Achieving sustainable progress requires political parties to transcend narrow affiliations and embrace a statesmanlike approach that emphasizes policy coherence, institutional strengthening, and socio-economic development. This necessitates fostering a culture of consensus-building, cultivating mutual understanding, and making compromises for the collective benefit of the nation.
Pakistan finds itself at a critical juncture where the pursuit of national interest must unequivocally supersede narrow agendas.
Cornel West, an American philosopher, scholar of African American studies, social activist, political activist, and political critic aptly stated, “There is no fundamental social change by being simply of individual and interpersonal actions. You have to have organizations and institutions that make a fundamental difference.” It is widely acknowledged that state institutions play a crucial role in shaping the fate of a nation. They form the backbone of a country’s government, responsible for effectively implementing policies and delivering services to its citizens. To achieve sustainable development, it is essential to empower these state institutions and equip them with the necessary tools to excel in their respective roles. One critical emphasis should be on ensuring that state institutions remain apolitical in their operations.
In Pakistan as well, there is an urgent need to empower state institutions adequately for sustainable development. Vital state institutions like the judiciary, civil services, and regulatory bodies are undoubtedly the foundational pillars of governance and accountability in Pakistan. Unfortunately, however, their effectiveness has been compromised by politicization, corruption, and undue influence. To sufficiently empower these crucial state institutions and enhance their ability to deliver services to the public effectively, Pakistan must safeguard their autonomy, increase transparency, and promote meritocracy. By protecting them from external pressures and enabling them to operate impartially, Pakistan can strengthen its governance framework and ensure equitable service delivery and justice for all citizens.
Improving living standards and fostering national resilience require sustained economic stability and growth, which are absolutely essential and indispensable. It is an undeniable truth that Pakistan has substantial economic potential, yet this potential is hindered by immensely significant issues such as fiscal mismanagement, inadequate infrastructure, and an inconsistent investment climate. Achieving sustainable economic progress demands that Pakistan realize it can be achieved only through prudent fiscal policies, infrastructure development, investment in human capital, and fostering a favorable business environment. By prioritizing economic reforms and promoting inclusive growth, Pakistan can unlock its latent economic potential and create enhanced opportunities for all segments of society.
Social cohesion, which involves the sense of community belonging and relationships among its members, is crucial for achieving national consensus and collective well-being in any country. Pakistan, with its diverse social, ethnic, and gender backgrounds, is a pluralistic society rich in cultural heritage. However, divisions based on ethnicity, religion, and socio-economic status pose significant challenges to national unity and harmony. To address these challenges, promoting inclusivity, tolerance, and respect for diversity is imperative. These elements are essential for building a cohesive society where every citizen feels valued and empowered.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) on September 20, 2015, recognized that peace and security are essential prerequisites for achieving sustainable development. It also acknowledged that sustainable development itself contributes to building peaceful societies. Thus, ensuring peace and security is fundamental for sustainable development.
Pakistan continues to grapple with significant internal security challenges, including terrorism, extremism, and regional geopolitical dynamics. Addressing these requires a comprehensive strategy that tackles both internal and external threats, while also upholding human rights and the rule of law. Effective national security demands robust law enforcement, intelligence coordination, and diplomatic engagement in a volatile regional environment. Any compromise, whether intentional or unintentional, on these critical components would undermine the government’s efforts to maintain stability and protect national interests.
The essential requirement for putting Pakistan on the path to sustainable progress and development is a paradigm shift from self-interest to national interest across all sectors of society. This transformation unequivocally demands political maturity, institutional resilience, and societal cohesion to overcome entrenched challenges and seize emerging opportunities. Key stakeholders must demonstrate leadership, foresight, and an unwavering commitment to consensus-building and compromise for the collective benefit of the Pakistani nation, as previously mentioned.
Undoubtedly, Pakistan finds itself at a critical juncture where the pursuit of national interest must unequivocally supersede narrow agendas and partisan rivalries. It is widely acknowledged that achieving sustainable progress and development necessitates a unified effort from all stakeholders-political parties, state institutions, civil society, and the private sector-to prioritize unity, equity, and inclusive economic growth that benefits all segments of society.
By cultivating a culture of accountability, transparency, and dialogue, Pakistan can unleash its full potential and chart a path toward a prosperous future for all its citizens. It is imperative to recognize that Pakistan can fulfill its promise as a resilient, inclusive, and prosperous nation in the global community only through collective action and steadfast commitment to the national interest.
Operation Azm-i-Istehkam: Pakistan’s quest for eradicating terrorism
By: Asad Ali | July 02, 2024
Political instability and terrorism are the root causes of economic problems facing Pakistan. The coalition government is trying its best to overcome all the elements that are standing in the way of the country’s development and prosperity. In this regard, PM Shahbaz Sharif approved the launch of Military Operation Azm-i-Istehkam to accelerate national counterterrorism campaign with consensus of entire political and military leadership in the meeting of apex committee of National Action Plan. The step has been taken, which is inevitable requirement of the time, but the opposition is raising objections to this operation. If opposition’s objections to this operation are removed and the requirements of the constitution and law are given due consideration, then God willing, not only will this effort get full national support, but it will also strengthen the resolve against terrorism and bring lasting peace and stability across the country.
The launch of Operation is a significant step by government to combat persistent threat of terrorism. The operation aims to intensify the national counterterrorism campaign with unified support of political and military leadership, as discussed in the apex committee of. Undoubtedly, terrorism has escalated rather than declined in Pakistan. Last year alone, there were 306 terrorism incidents resulting in 693 deaths and 1124 injuries. This year, the number of incidents has already reached 332, with approximately 450 casualties. The country faces a dire need for a preventive and integrated strategy to end terrorism. While successful operations have been conducted in the past, complete eradication of terrorism remains elusive.
Operation Azm-i-Istehkam is a necessary measure fight against terrorism, but it has faced objections from opposition. PTI’s Gohar insists that parliament must be taken into confidence before launching any operations. The opposition’s objection is valid, as significant decisions should be made with parliamentary consultation and approval.
The Apex Committee has met previously, and the issues discussed are not new. However, presenting reports from previous operations before announcing a new one would help the nation understand the outcomes and future expectations. Politically and diplomatically, there is a need to enhance efforts to destroy terrorist hideouts through regional cooperation during Operation Azm-i-Istehkam. It is essential to address past shortcomings and re-evaluate ineffective strategies to ensure the new operation’s success.
The current security threats have jeopardized Pakistan’s security and economic stability. Projects worth billions of dollars, including CPEC, are at risk due to increasing terrorism incidents. Achieving peace and political stability is crucial for economic stability, and a robust operation is indispensable to bring peace and harmony to the country, thereby advancing economic cooperation. However, national consensus on this crucial decision is imperative, and this can only be achieved with parliamentary approval.
The government has announced plans to present Operation Azm-i-Istehkam to parliament in response to opposition pressure. This announcement must be acted upon to ensure that the operation is not implemented without parliamentary endorsement. If the operation proceeds without parliamentary approval, its outcome will likely be the same as previous operations – incomplete counterterrorism efforts and continued instability. Only with a united national front can Pakistan hope to achieve lasting peace and stability, paving the way for economic development.
While military operations are essential to combating terrorism, addressing the root causes of terrorism is equally crucial. These root causes include political instability, economic disparities, lack of education, and social injustices. Without addressing these underlying issues, military operations alone will not be sufficient to eradicate terrorism. Political instability has been a significant factor contributing to the rise of terrorism in Pakistan. To address this, Pakistan needs a stable and transparent political system where the rule of law prevails, and political leaders work towards the nation’s collective good rather than individual gains.
The international community also plays a vital role in supporting Pakistan’s efforts to combat terrorism. International support can come in various forms, including financial assistance, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic backing. The international community must recognize the challenges Pakistan faces and provide the necessary support to help the country achieve lasting peace and stability. Financial assistance is crucial for Pakistan to implement effective counterterrorism measures. This includes funding for military operations, infrastructure development, education, and social reforms. The international community should provide financial assistance to Pakistan to help it build the necessary capacity to combat terrorism effectively.
Intelligence sharing is essential in identifying and eliminating terrorist threats. The international community should enhance its intelligence-sharing mechanisms with Pakistan to provide real-time information on terrorist activities. This will help Pakistan pre-empt and neutralize terrorist threats more effectively. Diplomatic support is also crucial in garnering international backing for Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. The international community should support Pakistan diplomatically by highlighting the challenges it faces and advocating for international cooperation in combating terrorism.
Furthermore, enhancing regional cooperation and gaining international support are vital ineffectively combating terrorism. The international community must recognize the challenges Pakistan faces and provide the necessary financial, intelligence, and diplomatic support to help the country achieve lasting peace and stability. Only with a united national and international front can Pakistan hope to overcome the challenges of terrorism and political instability, paving the way for economic development and prosperity.
Indian sponsorship of terrorism
By: Malik Muhammad Ashraf | July 02, 2024
Interior minister Balochistan revealed in a press conference on 26 th June disclosed that two high value commanders of TTP including Maulvi Mansoor have been arrested after a difficult operation. Maulvi Mansoor in his confessional statement in a video played before the journalists said that Indian RAW was supporting TTP and BLA and he was responsible for military, financial and administrative affairs of the banned outfit. The TTP has been working closely with BLA as desired by RAW. According to him RAW wanted the two entities to collaborate and establish camps in Balochistan. The objective of setting up these camps was to establish foothold in the province, target Chinese citizens to sabotage CPEC and carry out kidnapping for ransom which will highlight forced disappearances issue discrediting Pakistan’s intelligence agencies. He also revealed that many missing persons were roaming around in Afghanistan. He also confessed that the current Afghan government fully backed their activities.
The information provided by Maulvi Mansoor establishes beyond doubt the nexus between terrorists out fits, RAW and the Afghan government and also clears the haze on the much trumpeted issue of missing persons and how the enemies were exploiting the situation. As confessed by him the biggest aim of collaboration between TTP and BLA was to sabotage CPEC.
This is the second biggest success of our intelligence agencies in regards to acts of terrorism within Pakistan sponsored by India in connivance with Taliban government in Afghanistan. The first was the arrest of serving naval officer of India Kalbhushan Jhadav in Balochistan on 3rd March 2016. He was awarded death sentence by a military court in the light of his revelation in regards to support to BLA for carrying out acts of terrorism in the province. The terrorist organizations have been carrying out attacks on security forces and Chinese citizens working on CPEC projects.
The arrest of Kalbhushan Jhadav and Maulvi Mansoor leave no doubt about Indian state terrorism. India is not only behind terrorist activities in Pakistan but it has also spread the tentacles of its state terrorism to other countries as well. The involvement of Indian government in the assassination of a Sikh leader in Canada and unraveling of another conspiracy to assassinate yet another Sikh leader in USA provide a ranting testimony to Indian state terrorism.
I think that Pakistan must avail this opportunity and launch a diplomatic offensive to sensitize the world community about Indian state terrorism and also raise the issue at the forum of United Nation. It is perhaps pertinent to point out that when Kalbhushan Jhadav was apprehended Pakistan government had provided a dossier to the UN and important countries of the world including USA that contained irrefutable proofs of Indian sponsored terrorism but regrettably nobody bothered to condemn India for it. Even now no different outcome can be expected considering the fact that USA and its allies look at the situation inour area through the prism of their strategic and commercial interests. Their conscience is subservient to these interests. But that should not discourage us from taking the initiative to propagate the issue at every available international forum.
There is also no doubt the fact that Afghan soil is being used for terrorist activities against Pakistan which is a violation of the commitment that Afghan Taliban made with the international community not to allow its soil be used for acts of terrorism against any other state. It is believed that Pakistan has been raising this issue with the Taliban government from time to time reminding it its international obligations. Regrettably these efforts have also not produced any positive results. I think now the time has come to take a firm stand on the issue and to impress upon the Taliban government that their support to the terrorist outfits could have very serious repercussions for Afghanistan, Pakistan and regional peace and security.
The Taliban government needs to be reminded of the fact that the geographical realities cannot be changed. The two neighbours therefore have to make sure that they cooperate with each other in dealing with the phenomenon of terrorism. If there are any issues they think are undermining relations between the two countries and hence their support for these terrorist outfits then those must be resolved on the negotiating table. The reality is that shared economic prosperity and security of the countries in the region is inextricably linked to cordial relations between them and cooperation in exploiting the economic potential that is waiting to be exploited.
Pakistan has always extended unqualified support to the Afghan Taliban and was one of the two countries which recognized their government. It has supported Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution to conflict in Afghanistan and also played a significant role in helping the USA and Taliban to reach an agreement on exit of USA and NATO forces from Afghanistan. Pakistan has been making these efforts at bilateral and multilateral forums. It has also made positive overtures to the Taliban government after the exit of US and NATO forces and is willing to play constructive role in rebuilding Afghanistan. Both the countries have historical religious and cultural bonds. There are lot many common grounds on which positive and productive relations between the two countries can be choreographed.
Infact cordial relations with Afghanistan have always been a top priority of Pakistan and foreign minister Ishaq Dar unequivocally echoed these sentiments while speaking in the parliament the other day. He also revealed that he would soon be visiting Afghanistan on the invitation of the Afghan government. It is indeed a good augury and one hopes that it would help in removing kinks in relations between the two countries.
Fight Against Terrorism
By: Sher Ali Bukhari | July 02, 2024
Pakistan has been no stranger to terrorism since the dawn of this century. However, the phenomenon of terrorism has been escalating since the arrival of the Afghan Taliban in Kabul. It is quite remarkable that initial assessment reports by Pakistan’s intelligence suggest that a pro-friendly government in Kabul led by the Afghan Taliban would result in a declining terrorism surge in the country and pave the way for securing the western border- Durand Line, 2640km. However, the outfall of Kabul at the hands of the Afghan Taliban resulted in a different direction.
Pakistan has experienced the worst terrorism in the year 2023 while various reports conclude that the country has undergone 65pc surge of terrorism in the last year. The principal actor behind such nefarious terrorist activity is Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan-TTP- which is getting both covert and overt support from Afghanistan. Many independent security analysts opted that TTP and Afghan Taliban are different sides of the same coin due to their close affinity of religious ideology, ethnicity and shared worldview. It is also reported that TTP had supported Afghan Taliban during the last two decades when the USA occupied Afghanistan in the name of “Enduring Freedom Operation”, and now it is time to pay back to TTP Afghan Taliban. Other reports claimed that TTP has been used by the Afghan Taliban as a proxy to pressure Pakistan.
It is also worth noting that TTP is allying with other non-violent anti-Pakistan forces in another part of the country. In this regard, the closeness between TTP and BLA indicates the gravity and threat to the internal security of Pakistan- especially in the region of KPK, erstwhile FATF and Baluchistan. Most terrorist attacks are aimed at Pakistan’s military and other law enforcement agencies of the country for the sake of downing their morale.
Meanwhile, the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have been strained due to TTP. Various public statements from both sides are adding soar to the bilateral relationship. They would result in the breakdown of so-called cordial relations at some point provided that confidence-building measures are not taken. However, Pakistan has repeatedly called on the Afghan Taliban to cut down the size of TTP and has not offered any support to TTP, yet the leadership in Kabul is quite in denial about the serious concerns of Pakistan. This results in losing strategic patience by Islamabad as they undergo more lethal options for dealing with Terrorism.
Against this backdrop, Pakistan has decided to unleash another intelligencebased military operation under the banner of “Azam-e-Istehkam (June 2024)” to combat both terrorism and extremism in the country. Although both government and military leadership are on the same page regarding the nature and scope of the newly born operation, opposition parties- especially KPK- are casting doubt on the success of this operation. For that, the government should take confidence-building measures with opposition parties for a larger consensus on this military operation as history bears the testimony to fact that political consensus is a pre-requisite before conducting a successful military operation.
Meantime, Pakistan’s defense minister Khawaja Asif, in his interview with Voice of America, hinted at aiming hot pursuit in Afghanistan for the elimination of terrorists and their sanctuaries deep inside Afghanistan by using military forces even unilaterally. However, the main issue with such combative thinking is that it goes against the sovereignty of Afghanistan. Second, it weakens Pakistan’s stance regarding strategic strikes and cross-border operations by India in the name of the so-called elimination of terrorism in Pakistan, which could trigger a violation of sovereignty at the regional level in South Asia. Lastly, such an action could unleash further anti-Pakistan feeling and public opinion in Afghanistan which is not in the interest of Islamabad.
Therefore, one can say that military action against terrorism carries a significant weightage, however, to get rid of terrorism and extremism, the state has to undergo other non-military options. In this regard, the National Action Plan has provided a clear roadmap. For example, political stability, economic prosperity, equal economic opportunities, the rule of law, the fair and square justice system, development programs in provinces, de-radicalized education and women empowerment are few among the available options against fighting terrorism and extremism. Most importantly, the state has to provide a counter-terrorism narrative against TTP and BLA to uproot their ideological depth in affected regions of Pakistan.
Meantime, Pakistan has to deal with the Afghan Taliban at multiple levels along with strengthening the internal security of the country. For example, political, military, economic and engagement with the Afghan Taliban has to be intact for the sake of carrot policy in diplomacy. Afghan Taliban should be reminded that favoring TTP is not in the interest of Afghanistan and their contacts with TTP must be broken for larger recognition of Afghan Taliban by the international community.
At the same time, Pakistan should not abandon its stick policy with the Afghan Taliban as long as the Afghan Taliban is willing to support TTP. For that, Pakistan could use Afghan refugees as a tactical option against the Afghan Taliban for exerting pressure. Trade restriction and economic stagnation could also be brought to the table for mending Afghan Taliban behaviour towards TTP. However, Pakistan should undergo such an option with great care and concern without damaging available goodwill and strategic depth in Afghanistan in favor of Pakistan. Otherwise, Afghanistan could end up in Pakistan’s vital rival- India- which could jeopardize the core interests of Pakistan.
Lastly, at the diplomatic level, Pakistan must unveil Indian funding and weapons at the hands of TTP and BLA before the international community, exposing the dual face of Indian terrorist sponsorship in the region. Meanwhile, Pakistan should engage the international community for the sake of upholding the Doha Agreement (2020) where the Afghan Taliban pledged before the USA and international community not to grant any space and a haven to any terrorist outfit in Afghanistan. Finally, Pakistan should engage with neighboring countries to reach a consensus on the agenda of terrorism with the slogan of “No Recognition without ending Terrorism”.
Will the leopard change its spots?
By: Hussain H Zaidi | July 02, 2024
After the inauguration of Narendra Modi’s third term as India’s premier, the key question doing the rounds is whether his reduced parliamentary strength will author a noticeable change in the style and substance of his governance.
In both 2014 and 2019, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) returned with a clear majority and faced a divided and battered opposition, so weak that for 10 years, it couldn’t elect an opposition leader, as no party met the mandatory criterion of having at least 10 per cent of the seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha.
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), of which the BJP is the leading constituent, won 336 seats in 2014 and 351 in 2019, giving it a comfortable majority (close to the two-thirds majority of 362) in the Lok Sabha. As a result, the ruling coalition was able to push the desired legislation, both ordinary and constitutional, through parliament without much ado.
But now the scenario has changed. Having won only 240 seats in 2024, the BJP falls well short of a simple majority of 272. This means that for the first time, Prime Minister Modi is presiding over a minority government and is compelled to form a coalition with other NDA parties. The total parliamentary strength of the NDA is 293, well past the 272 mark, but well short of having a two-thirds majority.
Not only this, but for the first time in 10 years, the opposition has a leader in Rahul Gandhi, Modi’s rival-in-chief.
The NDA isn’t an electoral alliance in the strict sense of the word, as the constituent parties did not go to the polls under a common symbol. Nor is its opponent, the Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA). This means that in both cases, the constituents are free to chart their way.
This augurs both well and badly for the BJP. It can entice some opposition MPs to bolster its strength; it may also lose support from some NDA members, which may bring the government down.
India, including the BJP, does not have a good experience with minority governments. In 1996, BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee resigned within two weeks of being sworn in as premier, as he was not able to secure the mandatory vote of confidence in the Lok Sabha. In the 1989 elections, the ruling Congress emerged as the single largest party but fell well short of a majority, as the BJP has done in 2024. But Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi preferred to quit instead of trying to form a minority government. No doubt, Modi and Gandhi are as similar as chalk and cheese.
Evidently, Modi is in a much better position than Vajpayee was in 1996, and there is no way he will not be able to secure a vote of confidence. His NDA partners will continue to support him as long as they are kept happy. Modi has already given five cabinet slots to them. Nor will the opposition be keen to de-seat him.
Given INDIA’s large and varied composition, its government, granted that it can get the numbers, will be susceptible to falling apart at the drop of a hat. Modi also holds the trump card that every prime minister holds in parliamentary democracy: if pushed to the wall, he can have the house dissolved at will and seek a fresh mandate.
The question thus is not whether Modi will survive but whether he can govern the way he is used to governing – with abandon. Another question is whether he will continue with his divisive policies, which have drawn clear-cut cleavages between the ultra-rich and those at the middle and bottom of the economic heap and between the majority and minority communities.
Politics is a mind game. When one is in a commanding position, everyone, including oneself, one’s allies and rivals and other stakeholders, such as the courts and the media, is aware of this. The sense of untrammelled power often brings with it veritable arrogance and disdain for others.
As a rule, courts hesitate to shoot down a law piloted by – and even otherwise be on the wrong side of – a government commanding an absolute majority. This is perhaps the reason why the Supreme Court of India upheld the change in the status of Jammu and Kashmir, India’s sole Muslim-majority state, introduced by the Modi government in August 2019.
Many independent observers believe that the court did not address the systemic issues raised by the petitioners. The apex court’s November 2019 decision in the Babri Masjid-Ram Mandir case is also a case in point. It is the other way around when one slips on the power curve.
Modi, like Imran Khan and Donald Trump, is a cult figure. Such leaders owe their popularity in large measures to their blustering style, uncompromising attitude, and larger-than-life image. Should they offer an olive branch to the other side, or even behave in a mellow manner, their followers will interpret it as a sign of weakness.
At the same time, Modi has risen in the ranks by dint of hard work and shrewdness. Such people are pragmatists and can blow hot or cold according to the circumstances. This will likely place Modi in a dilemma, as his cult leader status and pragmatism will pull him in opposite directions.
By way of resolving the dilemma, he may appear tough and uncompromising on camera, while being willing to give in off-camera when necessary. In Modi’s new cabinet, the core cabinet members have retained their positions. So has the powerful Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla. This sends out the message that despite losing the majority, Modi remains fully in control as ever.
Over the years, the BJP has rewarded mega industrialists, who have duly reciprocated by contributing generously to the party. The BJP’s growth model, which ironically it inherited from the Manmohan Singh-led Congress government (2004-14), has made India one of the fastest-growing economies, which also has one of the highest levels of inequality, in the world.
Not only that, Big Business bankrolls the corporate media, which sings Modi’s praises day in, and day out. It was the corporate media, whose exit polls had given the BJP an absolute majority in the recent elections, which turned out to be a hoax. Should Modi go for a more egalitarian growth model, it will not only alienate his supporters from the corporate world and the media that they control, it may also slow down the economy for at least a few years.
Neither of the likely outcomes will be acceptable to Modi. Hence, he is likely to persist with his trickle-down growth model mixed with some cosmetic measures, such as subsidizing low-income households.
Divisive politics is a kiss of death for a diverse polity. But for the BJP, religious plurality has historically been a source of weakness in Hindu-majority India, making it susceptible to foreign domination at the hands of first Muslims and then Europeans. The only way to rejuvenate India then is to put in place a monolithic society with total Hindu dominance.
It is this narrative that enabled the BJP to expand, capture the states and finally take New Delhi by storm. Should it depart from this narrative, it may find the ground on which its edifice rests slip. Such seismic change will hardly be viable for any populist political party.
While Modi will govern the way he and his party deem fit, the role of a rejuvenated opposition, with the Congress at its head, will also be important. Since his ‘Bharat Jodo Yatra,’ (Unite India March), Rahul Gandhi has earned nationwide respect, not as a scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty but in his own right. If he can keep the opposition united and make it speak with one voice, an effective bulwark can be put in place against the BJP’s majoritarianism.
A hot Earth is with us
By: Shahid Jved Burki | July 01, 2024
Not a day passes without the newspapers reporting some unexpected and unusual weather event. These are all related to global warming. Earth is expected to surpass the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark set in the 2025 Climate Summit in Paris as the point when the globe would enter a period of catastrophic change. Global temperature records have been significantly broken since June 2023 as a burgeoning El Nino phenomenon began releasing vast stores of heat which were accompanied by heavy rains. This is a repeat of a situation that occurred in the early 1990 when I was working as World Bank Vice President in charge of Latin America. Alberto Fujimori, then the President of Peru, invited me to his country and travel with him in his official aircraft to see for myself the damage that was being done in several parts of the country.
Desperate Fujimori wanted to move tens of thousands of llamas, a ship-like animal, from the low-lying areas to higher ground. Llamas are unique to Peru and are valued from their fur. Llama coats are also valued by women in the United States. Experts warned that such a move would kill more animals than they would drown in the expected floods. They asked me to convince the president to leave the animals where they were. I managed to convince the president after promising hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of assistance to the country to deal with the damage done by the floods.
It was an El Nino type of weather pattern that resulted in the 1971 cyclone in what was then East Pakistan, the eastern part of Pakistan born in 1947. What was perceived by the affected citizens as poor response by the distant federal government that led to agitation by the citizens which ultimately led to the split of Pakistan and birth of Bangladesh. This event is a proof of the fact that unaddressed weather-related events can have serious political consequences.
This and other situations demand urgent action. This unprecedented period of warmth has astonished scientists who have been working in this field of research and have now begun to appeal the leaders of the United Nations. The institution’s Secretary General has responded. “For the past year, every turn of the calendar has tuned up the heat,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said in a special address in New York. “Our planet is trying to tell us something. But we don’t seem to be listening.” We seem not to be listening to scientists, either. A study published by a group of 57 scientists on June 5, 2024 found that human activities were responsible for 92 per cent of the warming observed in 2023, the planet’s hottest calendar year on record. It said that the rate of warming in the past decade is “unprecedented in the instrumental record”. Scientists now estimate an 86 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will surpass the record average observed in 2023.
This is a periodic report; the latest issue quoted above shows that it has become nearly a certainty that global temperatures will continue to cross into dangerous zones. At a sustained average of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which now convenes every year in different parts of the world has repeatedly warned that weather will become so extreme that many people will struggle to deal with it. To go back to the statement by the United Nations Secretary General: “The difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees could be a difference between extinction and survival for some small states and coastal communities.”
The latest is the news from Mecca where some two million Muslims were performing the Haj. On June 15, fourteen Jordanian pilgrims died as result of exposure to extreme sun and heat. Temperatures reached 110 degrees Fahrenheit. An additional 17 pilgrims were missing. The Saudi Press Agency reported that the country’s medical centre had treated 225 pilgrims for heat exhaustion and stress. The rituals pilgrims perform include praying outside the Great Mosque of Mecca and spending the day in prayer at Mount Arafat, under the blazing sun. Based on the lunar calendar, this time the Haj moved into the middle of June. Next year it will be in early June. Unless some actions are taken by the authorities such as cooling the tents under which pilgrims gather, heatwave deaths would continue to take a heavy toll.
By now it is well-known that the continent of South Asia is experiencing its worst summer ever. This is the case in particular with the northern areas of India and southern parts of Pakistan. The cities in these areas have experienced record temperatures, killing people of heat exhaustion. Those who have access to air conditioning are able to deal with the situation. Those who work outside, as is the case with hundreds of millions of farmers, there is no escape from the relentless heat. The health systems in these countries are unable to deal with the developing situation.
There were reports from southern parts of Europe of extreme heat taking a large human toll. Heatwaves that swept across Greece in June exacted a deadly toll on the weekend of June 15-16 with the authorities reporting the deaths of several tourists who had decided to do activities out in the Sun. As the latest hot spell in the country peaked on June 12-13, the authorities closed many schools in Athens and visiting hours were restricted at several ancient sites, including the Acropolis, Greece’s most popular tourist attraction.
Some but not all world leaders who are aware of the situation have thrown up their hands. For instance, French President Emmanuel Macron asked 150 ordinary citizens to help with policymaking. He banned advertisements for coal, petroleum and hydrogen made from fossil fuels. “We are playing Russian roulette with our planet,” the UN Secretary General said in the above quoted statement. “We need an exit ramp of the highway climate hell.”
Some but not enough work has been done by experts on the impact of people’s movement of climate change. Not able to live where they now reside, they will move to safer places not only within countries but also across international frontiers. Both Western Europe and the United States should ready themselves for climate refugees.
CPEC 2:0
By: Imran Malik | July 01, 2024
The CPEC is much more than just Pakistan’s economic lifeline that it is generally purported to be. It needs to be further seen in its manifold geopolitical, geostrategic and geoeconomic dimensions to fully grasp its importance within the region and its impact beyond it. It is the flagship project of the BRI and therefore must contribute handsomely towards its success. Failure or partial success is not an option. The concerns of the Chinese are thus well-founded and timely.
Any major regional-global power occupying the Mekran Coast-Gwadar Complex, the southern end of the CPEC, will derive enormous geopolitical, geostrategic, and geoeconomic dividends from this enormously advantageous position. The Mekran Coast-Gwadar Complex holds within itself the potential to provide numerous land, air, naval, submarine, and missile bases, communication, radar, intelligence gathering stations, and other associated military installations in a very sensitive area of the region. It will have a domineering (controlling during hostilities) oversight of all SLOCs carrying oil, gas, and other goods, to and from the Persian Gulf/Hormuz Straits. Moreover, any air and naval forces foraying forth from the Mekran Coast can dominate all East-West SLOCs/global trade transiting the Indian Ocean, too. This brings forth the inevitability of the CPEC and the Mekran Coast-Gwadar Complex in all future strategic considerations of the region. It is bound to acquire the utmost tactical, operational, and strategic importance in any violent conflict in the GMER. Furthermore, it stands to link the South-Central Asian Region and western China to the Indian Ocean, GMER, Europe, and beyond through the shortest possible trade corridors. The economic potential is astronomical, too.
This brings the unrelenting terrorist onslaughts on the CPEC into their correct perspective. It also clarifies who sponsors these marauding terrorist groups and why. It shows clearly where Afghanistan and Iran stand on the subject. It also accentuates China’s apprehensions about the security of the BRI-CPEC and its people and projects within. Finally, it underlines Pakistan’s inexorable obligation to secure and safeguard this vital corridor, foremost in its own vital national interest.
However, Pakistan’s political elite seems oblivious to the deep strategic manoeuvre that this unrelenting terrorist onslaught on the CPEC in reality is. They appear unable to comprehend its complex implications for the region and beyond, for Pakistan, its economic revival, and for China. Crucially, their approach to dealing with the terrorists is diametrically opposed too. One favours negotiations with them while the other prefers kinetic operations against them. Where will the twain meet? They remain incommunicado and consumed by their obsessive compulsions to politically annihilate each other. They do not seem to fathom the ominous consequences of their less than mature political behaviour during Pakistan’s current predicaments. They must realize that Pakistan and its vital national interests take precedence over everything and everyone else. Period.
Unfortunately, there is no credible, universally respected political leader or other personality in the country who could take charge of the situation, mediate, and collect them all around a table for meaningful, result-oriented discussions/negotiations. Furthermore, there is nary a credible institution or organization in the country which would be willing to or could be entrusted with the onerous task of initiating and formalising a rapprochement between these bitterly divided political antagonists. Resultantly, Pakistan, its people, its economy, security, and well-being continue to suffer endlessly. The persisting status quo is excruciating, suffocating, asphyxiating and clearly unsustainable. It must give way to sensible politics that serves the nation and people’s interests before everything else. A change is long overdue. It must come naturally rather than be forced. The political leaders will have to think beyond themselves, their idiosyncrasies, and petty political interests to create opportunities for Pakistan to emerge from this economic imbroglio, speedily.
Pakistani politicians need to understand the urgency of Pakistan’s problems now. They are existential in nature. The CPEC is the game changer that it needs most of all. It has precious little else to bank on, at the moment, anyway. It must be secured from all forms of threats; major power manoeuvrings and coercion, terrorist attacks, incompetent governance, skewed priorities, political instability, economic mismanagement, poor policy formulation, and hesitant decision-making. Pakistan needs to stabilize itself and start functioning like a normal state, post haste. A massive paradigm shift in the national effort to cohesively, single-mindedly pursue vital interests - the CPEC - is thus warranted.
It will eventually devolve upon the politicians to dig themselves and Pakistan out of the hole they are all collectively in. A convergence of all political parties on the need to put Pakistan First, always and every time, is inevitable. They did so for Mr Liu Jian Chao. Now they must do it for Pakistan in a far more wholesome, voluntary, and decisive manner. They must now seize the initiative to find an amicable solution to this imbroglio. It is incumbent upon the current government in power to deal with the situation and find practical ways and means to end this senseless political impasse. It must create and open viable, credible, and innovative channels of communication with its political opponents. It would require a lot of wheeling and dealing, much give and take, to arrive at a possible way out of this conundrum. Political compromises all around will perhaps define the solution. This will require a great deal of patience, prudence, tact, large-heartedness, sagacity, courage and visionary foresight on the part of all leaders/parties. With the requisite will and determination all around, it is eminently doable. A well-thought-out plan of action from the Government thus could set the ball rolling. All politicians owe at least this much to the nation. The CPEC must attain its stated objectives; Chinese apprehensions thereof must be totally allayed!
Pakistan’s path to energy independence
By: Shaha Tariq| July 01, 2024
We no longer have the luxury to exist in an isolated ecosystem where we can pre-determine the effect of international events on our policies and strategies. It has, instead, become a live biosphere where regional collaborations and active war zones have significant potential to influence and change the global dynamics.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict that escalated in 2021 has had a significant economic impact, driving commodity prices, particularly fuel, to record highs. This impact has been especially severe in Pakistan, where a financial crisis led to an almost 80 per cent devaluation of the Pakistani rupee, above 30 per cent inflation, and a doubling of energy prices.
Political instability, increased smuggling from Iran, and security issues in Afghanistan have further exacerbated the situation for consumers. Pakistan's heavy reliance on imported energy has highlighted multiple challenges, including limited domestic resources, and an expensive fuel mix for power generation. Additionally, power generation and distribution have not kept pace with economic growth, leading to a significant energy shortfall. This insufficiency and high energy costs have constrained economic growth and employment opportunities.
The crisis has been further aggravated by skyrocketing circular debt and reliance on fossil fuels, especially oil and natural gas, which supply 80 per cent of its energy. The single-buyer model through the Central Power Purchasing Authority Guarantee Limited (CPPA-G) hampers competition and strategic planning, leading to inefficiencies.
As a result, Pakistan's power tariffs are significantly higher than its peers, undermining regional competitiveness and export potential. The sector's critical state threatens the entire economy, necessitating urgent reforms to ensure sustainable and efficient energy management. The discussion around the challenges of the energy sector has gained strength in the wake of inflation, and the widening gap between production and supply, creating a huge space for resolute deliberations.
The recently concluded Pakistan Energy Symposium in Islamabad, organized by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI) and Shell Pakistan Limited, provided just that opportunity, by not only bringing together stakeholders and thought leaders to discuss the causes and solutions to Pakistan's energy crisis, but also delving into strategies for lessening Pakistan's reliance on imports and developing alternative resources, aiming to pave a sustainable path forward.
Pakistan’s domestic oil market is segmented into Upstream (Exploration & Production), Midstream (Transportation of oil from production sites to refineries), and Downstream (Refineries and Oil Marketing Companies) sectors. Dr Nazir Abbas Zaidi, secretary-general of the Oil Companies Advisory Council, presenting his keynote, pointed out six key aspects of the oil industry's upstream, refinery, and downstream sectors with specific mention to oil production trends, which peaked at 94,000 barrels per day in 2012-2014 but declined to 73,000 by 2022-23, and similar declines in gas production from 4.3 BCF per day in 2012 to 3 BCF by 2021-22. He attributed this to depleting fields and insufficient new exploration. Zaidi noted that 90 per cent of oil production is by four major companies and stressed the need for increased exploration, especially in underexplored regions. He also highlighted the potential of tight gas, estimating 70-100 trillion cubic feet, crucial for future demand.
To address the financial crises faced by foreign investors in the upstream sector, timely payment of gas sale invoices is crucial, with current defaults exceeding $600 million. Recommendations by experts included increasing consumer gas prices to cover revenue shortfalls, providing grants or subsidies to clear outstanding invoices, and prioritizing foreign exchange allocation for prompt payments. These measures aim to restore investor confidence and ensure continuous production and exploration activities.
To ensure a stable gas supply and attract foreign investment, new private LNG terminals must be expedited, along with expanding existing ones. This approach avoids government off-take guarantees and addresses winter gas shortages. Recommendations included operationalizing Third-Party Access (TPA), forming an LNG Task Force to streamline approvals and unify gas licensing rules, and deregulating the LNG value chain. This will encourage competitive gas pricing and improved services, facilitating the entry of private players. An onshore LNG terminal is suggested for long-term gas supply security.
LPG is increasingly important as an alternative fuel due to natural gas depletion. However, its potential is limited by regulatory conflicts and inadequate infrastructure, with significant imports against minimal storage capacity. Enhancing regulatory coordination and infrastructure is necessary to leverage LPG’s role in the energy landscape.
To streamline downstream operations, comprehensive reforms in policy and governance are essential. A strong regulatory framework is also necessary to curb illegal product flows impacting the revenue and supply of existing and new projects. The updated ‘Pakistan Oil Refining Policy 2023 For New Greenfield Refineries’ has been approved; it is aligned with current sector developments and through incentivizing investment will potentially bring investments of $10-15 billion in the new world-scale petrochemical/refining complex.
Another positive step in this direction has been the approval of the Oil Refining Policy for the ‘Upgradation’ of Brownfield Refineries. This policy has presented an excellent opportunity to bring in huge investments and ensure a substantial increase in production while meeting the latest environment-friendly specifications. Three refineries -- Attock Refinery Ltd, National Refinery Ltd, and Pakistan Refinery Ltd -- have already given consent to sign the upgradation agreements under the revised Policy with Ogra. Parco and Cnergyico are also likely to join after the resolution of their issues taking the total investment to $5-6 billion by the refineries. A mutually agreed upon view was that of GOP/Ogra and their need to expedite the signing of agreements with consenting refineries to lock the development for good.
Reinforcement is needed on the other side of the downstream oil industry. The major issues being faced need to be addressed urgently, specifically about adherence to policies independent of political changes and strict controls on illegal inflows/outflows of petroleum products and of course, phase-wise deregulation with defined milestones.
The rollout of the refining policy (green and brown) will only impact 30 per cent of the production after three to five years but control of illegal inflows/outflows will reap instant benefits/revenues to the government exchequer.
Despite recent momentum, renewable energy growth in Pakistan is hampered by low private-sector participation, delayed competitive bidding processes, inadequate transmission infrastructure, and the intermittent nature of renewables. Recommendations to address these issues include promoting hybrid wind-solar farms, identifying arid regions for solar park development, improving the bidding process, accessing global funds to lower costs, and incentivizing local manufacturing of renewable energy equipment.
Considering the sector’s challenges such as circular debt and outdated infrastructure, the need for comprehensive measures and modernization efforts was highlighted, with clear and consistent policy frameworks. Additionally, robust regulatory support to facilitate the development of sustainable, modern infrastructure will be required with significant financial commitments ($340 billion by 2030) and incentives.
While the symposium highlighted the importance of fostering public-private partnerships to leverage collective expertise for large-scale sustainable projects, encouraging private-sector investment in renewable energy, and diversifying the energy supply by prioritizing renewable sources like solar, wind, hydro, and biomass – the overriding sentiment was for the crucial need to reduce reliance on fossil fuels.
In navigating this transition, it becomes evident that focus should be directed towards four key areas: first, robust demand planning strategies must be implemented to ensure efficient energy utilization; second, diversifying the fuel mix to incorporate renewable resources is essential for long-term sustainability; third, market deregulation can foster competition and innovation within the energy sector, driving efficiency and affordability; fourth, the role of distribution companies (DISCOs) emerges as a key, necessitating reforms to enhance their efficiency and effectiveness in energy distribution.
Acknowledgment of all stakeholders is required for the urgent need to completely restructure and overhaul both the transmission and distribution sectors, moving away from the ad-hoc and makeshift arrangements that have persisted for over three decades. This transformation should not only involve structural reforms and a mindset shift at the top but also align with the best and most relevant practices from developing countries.
Additionally, it is crucial to embrace the global transformations initiated in the post-Covid era, such as digitalization and AI, and apply them locally. This can only be achieved by integrating young, innovative, and fresh perspectives throughout the entire energy value chain in both the public and private sectors.
Telco to tech: the shift in education’
By: Dr Ayesha Razzque | July 01, 2024
A generation ago, Matric students going into higher secondary school (FA/FSc) were faced with a simple and stark choice: take up the pre-medical track in the hopes of being admitted to an MBBS (or BDS) programme or take up the pre-engineering track in the hopes of being admitted to an engineering programme or take the ISSB test to join the armed forces of Pakistan.
High school graduates who successfully joined a medical college, engineering university, or the armed forces were seen as being on a sure track to join the middle / upper-middle class. Those unsuccessful at all three would do something else and their prospects were considered unknown before they achieved some level of career success.
For as long as I can remember, among engineering disciplines, electrical engineering has been the top choice. An electrical engineering programme was (still is) versatile and can open doors in a wide variety of sectors. A university engineering seat, electrical engineering especially, going unfilled was rare, unheard of.
In the mid-90s, two and three-year computer science bachelor's programmes began mushrooming across Pakistan. This was possible because there was effectively little to no oversight of these programmes, unlike engineering programmes, which are subject to oversight by the Pakistan Engineering Council (PEC), and medical programmes, which are subject to oversight by the Pakistan Medical and Dental Council (PMDC). For many years after computer science education reached Pakistan’s shores, these programmes could operate with little interference and oversight. It would be a decade before the National Computing Education Accreditation Council (NCEAC) would be established in 2005 to perform a similar function for computing programmes.
The excitement of the global internet and dot-com boom of the late ‘90s and the domestic embryonic technology startup ecosystem in Pakistan made computer science an attractive alternative for tens of thousands of high-school graduates who did not or could not get into the hypercompetitive medical and engineering programmes.
In 2000, just as the dot-com bubble of the previous decade was bursting in the US, Pakistan introduced the Calling Party Pays (CPP) policy in the cellular mobile telephony sector. The CPP policy had the effect of multiplying the number of cellphone service subscribers in the country year after year.
Shortly thereafter, in July 2003, this was followed by the broader de-regulation policy of the country’s telecom sector. The telecom sector de-regulation brought new investment and new companies into the sector. This turbocharged the demand for electrical engineers and many institutions that could meet the regulatory and accreditation requirements of an engineering programme, and even some who could not, began launching electrical and overly specialized ‘telecom’ engineering programmes.
The Pakistani telco boom lasted for a little longer than a decade. By the early 2010s, several waves of telco engineers had gained experience working for Pakistani cell service providers and many had moved on to employers abroad. Career progression within companies had slowed, entry-level openings were few, subscriber count was asymptotic and competition between service providers was fierce. The introduction of 3G and 4G/LTE services gave the industry another jolt but slowed after that. The following years saw consolidation in the sector with exits and acquisitions continuing to this day.
Meanwhile, over the same period, the tech start-up sector had been growing and maturing with more startups launching every month, creating opportunities for capable computer scientists but also for the many electrical engineers willing to jump the fence.
If you keep an eye out on emerging technology trends, you will know that there have been many new technologies that have come out of computer science in the last 10-15 years (for example, smartphone services and app development, cloud computing, data science, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars and cybersecurity). Globally, electrical engineering has not been standing still either with advances in battery technology, Internet-of-Things, electric vehicles, drone technology, robotics, smart grids, and renewable energy.
While the former account for a significant part of Pakistan’s technology sector, the share of opportunities of the latter is minuscule by comparison – between computer science and electrical engineering, the scale of opportunities is heavily tilted in favour of computer science.
Over the last few weeks, I have learned that one of the oldest and once most competitive engineering programmes has been struggling to attract applicants. Another more recently established but highly sought-after public university with a large portfolio of engineering programmes foresees it will be able to fill all its seats for this fall but has seen a massive drop in applications to all engineering programmes except ones that are adjacent to computer science, like software engineering and computer engineering.
Furthermore, some universities in tier-2 and tier-3 cities are receiving large numbers of applications for computer science programmes but are seeing a large fraction of seats in engineering programs go unfilled.
Engineering, once the hottest ticket in technical education, has been overtaken by computer science and more specialized programmes in artificial intelligence and data science and could likely become a longer trend unless there are changes in our economy. Most engineering jobs require an active industrial manufacturing base.
The severe energy shortage in the early 2010s followed by an exorbitant rise in energy costs forced some Pakistani-owned industries, particularly in the textile sector, to close and, in many cases, move to regional neighbours like Bangladesh and Vietnam. The technology trends in electrical engineering that I listed above have had very little impact on Pakistani employment opportunities besides the odd employer here or there.
A 2023 report by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) titled ‘Disaggregating the graduate unemployment in Pakistan’ reported that the average unemployment rate of graduates in Pakistan rose slightly from 14.9 per cent in 2018-19 to 16.1 per cent in 2020-21. However, for engineering graduates, the same figure more than doubled from 11.2 to 23.5 per cent over the same period. For medical graduates, it rose from 6.4 to 10.8 per cent.
In conclusion, the evolving landscape of technical education in Pakistan underscores the urgent need for a reassessment of our academic priorities and industrial strategies. While computer science and related fields have surged ahead and offer abundant opportunities and align with global technological trends, traditional engineering disciplines, particularly electrical engineering, face dwindling interest and uncertain prospects.
As highlighted in PIDE’s report, the stark rise in unemployment rates among engineering and medical graduates, who make up a tiny fraction of the college-aged population, is a clear indicator of the unfolding de-industrialization and the mismatch between educational outputs and market needs.
To address this, policymakers, educational institutions, and industry stakeholders must collaboratively foster an environment that balances the development of emerging technological skills with the revitalization of our industrial base. By doing so, Pakistan can not only bridge the gap between education and employment but also pave the way for sustainable economic growth and innovation.
The writer (she/her) has a PhD in Education.
Resistance by other means
By: Maleeha Lodhi| July 01, 2024
ON his first visit to Srinagar after he was re-elected prime minister, Narendra Modi declared that elections in occupied Jammu and Kashmir would soon be held. He also indicated that its statehood would be restored.
Meanwhile, the Election Commission of India announced that updated electoral rolls for J&K would be published on Aug 20. To understand the significance of this development and what the BJP government’s motives and intentions are, it is necessary to rewind and recall what happened five years ago and thereafter.
Ever since India illegally annexed J&K in 2019 by abrogating Article 370 of its constitution, which gave the state special status, it has tried to convey the impression that the situation there was normalising. Aug 5, 2019, had, in fact, opened a new chapter in the tortured history of the occupied territory.
The bifurcation of the state and its absorption in the Indian union was in brazen violation of UN Security Council resolutions and was condemned throughout the state. A prolonged lockdown and communication blackout followed, the military siege tightened, public assembly was banned, the press silenced and Kashmiri leaders jailed, including pro-Delhi politicians, to prevent a popular upsurge against the move, which robbed the Kashmiri people of virtually all their rights.
The Modi government’s claim that, over time, normalcy and stability had returned to Kashmir, was belied by continuing repression and human right violations, curbs on political activities, crackdown on the media, jailing of journalists, and induction of additional troops into what was already the world’s most militarised region. Leaders of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) continued to languish in jail or house detention.
Modi’s earlier efforts to hold legislative elections by enticing pro-Indian political leaders to participate came to naught. In June 2021, he invited these leaders to a round table conference on Kashmir. The aim was to consolidate the 2019 action by persuading select politicians to rejoin a revived political process and create a facade of ‘normality’. But even handpicked Kashmiri leaders rejected the government’s controversial delimitation move and, instead, demanded restoration of J&K’s statehood. The meeting ended in failure.
People of occupied Kashmir will always find a way to say no to India.
In May 2022, India’s Delimitation Commission carved out new electoral constituencies in J&K that aimed to disempower the Muslim population. The delimitation plan handed Jammu six more seats in the 90-member J&K Assembly, while Kashmir was given only one more. Under this plan, Jammu’s representation went to 43 seats, leaving Kashmir with 47. This, despite the fact that, according to the 2011 census, the Kashmir Valley’s population was seven million, while Jammu’s was 5.3m. Delhi’s move to recast the electoral map was rejected across Kashmir. APHC leaders denounced it while pro-Delhi Kashmiri politicians called the plan unacceptable as it sought to alter Kashmir’s demography and aimed to turn the Muslim majority into a minority.
The post-2019 period saw almost every aspect of life for Muslims in occupied J&K come under assault by the BJP government. A series of steps — administrative, demographic, electoral — were taken to disempower and disenfranchise Kashmiris and alter the Muslim identity of Kashmir.
Several actions mimicked Israeli settler policies in occupied Palestine. Demographic changes involved new domicile rules, with millions of so-called domicile certificates issued to non-Kashmiri outsiders, who became eligible after abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A of the constitution. Voting rights were also given to non-residents. Properties were confiscated and newland laws introduced to enable land to be seized from locals and transferred to outsiders.
In 2022, BJP authorities seized the J&K Waqf Board and all its properties across the region. This marked a drive to take control of all prominent places of religious significance for Muslims in the occupied territory, including shrines. Religious leaders and Islamic scholars were arrested and prayers barred in many mosques across Kashmir. These and other measures sought tosystematically erode Kashmiri religious identity and culture.
The announcement about polls in J&K comes against this grim backdrop of Delhi’s use of force and fraud to marginalise Kashmiri Muslims and set the stage for assembly elections, designed to ‘endorse’ and legitimise its 2019 action. The government is legally obliged to hold polls by Sept 30, 2024, by the supreme court verdict of December 2023, which upheld the abrogation of Article 370 as ‘constitutional’. The last assembly elections were held in 2014.
Apart from having to comply with the supreme court order, the Modi government has read the higher turnout in the Lok Sabha elections in J&K as a return to normalcy. Turnout in the three Lok Sabha constituencies in Kashmir certainly went up compared to the past, although in Srinagar, two-thirds of voters didn’t cast their ballot. Still, the higher turnout was disingenuously cast by BJP leaders as ‘vindication’ of the abrogation of Article 370.
This was contrary to reality, which was so strongly evidenced by the election of Abdul Rasheed Sheikh from Baramulla. A fierce opponent of abrogation, he won from jail, being incarcerated on terrorism charges, defeating former chief minister Omar Abdullah. His campaign was run on the slogan “Jail ka badla vote se leinge” (Voting will avenge the jailing). The support he drew across the board, especially from youth, reflected the depth of Kashmiri anger with Delhi in what was widely seen in the Valley as a vote against India.
There are some indications that many Kashmiris may want to use the vote in the assembly elections to convey their discontent and rejection of Delhi’s policies. This could be a departure from the past, when they boycotted polls as a sham process under occupation. With other avenues to voice their demands closed, the vote may become a vehicle of protest against Delhi.
Although it is too early to say how this will play out, for now many Kashmiri residents are quoted in news reports as saying that voting, far from endorsing India or its policies, would be a way to register their dissent and resistance. The question, then, is if Delhi sees an electoral upsurge of resistance, would it still hold assembly elections?
What is beyond doubt is that the people of occupied Kashmir will reject any regime foisted on them and continue, one way or another, to express their aspiration for freedom from Indian occupation.
