Articals Regarding Pakistan
Politics of freebies
By: Farhan Bokhari | October 09, 2024
As Pakistan's political rivals intensely clash to demolish one another, the British prime minister's choice this month to return the cost of freebies he received earlier, must serve as a timely lesson for the country's ruling elite.
The equivalent of roughly $8,500 returned by Keir Starmer was paid against the cost of tickets to a musical concert, horse racing events and a football match.
These expenditures were challenged on the grounds of being improper and therefore not fit to be charged to the public treasury. In sharp contrast, such freebies will be left unnoticed by Pakistan's political class with a history of seizing a lot more during their tenures. Ignoring such largesse over time lies at the heart of the erosion of values in public life over previous decades.
Today, opposition leader Imran Khan remains tangled up in the 'Toshakhana' case, involving the sale of gifts that he received while serving as the prime minister. But his predecessors, Nawaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari gained equally if not much more, when the laws of the land were set aside to allow them to purchase luxury vehicles after they paid far below their actual prices.
These choices remain just the tip of the proverbial iceberg, in a country where largesse for the ruling class at the public's expense has been an acceptable norm for long.
Down the line from the top tiers of government to the bottom, grabbing assets of the state as legitimate patronage is a recurring theme in Pakistan's history. And it's a legacy that has only wrecked Pakistans prospects in more ways than one.
The ruling class, which is represented by elected legislators at the centre and the provinces, stands far removed from legislative business which ought to be their primary responsibility. Instead, they have repeatedly chosen to focus on seizing patronage, notably development funds for their constituencies as a matter of top priority. This has been closely followed by other malpractices, notably overseeing appointments of their favourite bureaucrats and police officers at key positions within their constituencies.
Exactly how these funds for development are spent has seldom been probed deeply enough. Anecdotal evidence, however, has repeatedly pointed towards the incidence of widespread corruption in such expenditure.
The unbridled use of 'freebies' that has evolved in Pakistan over time has already cost the country very dearly. It stands right at the heart of rampant corruption spread across Pakistan over the past decades.
Eventually, there has been an erosion of the quality of politics, management of administration and law enforcement, and key aspects of economic management. Once corruption became the norm, Pakistan's prospects across the board suffered in ways that made a recovery for the better an uphill battle.
A turn-around to reclaim the legacy of the glorious days of Pakistan's past fundamentally requires several steps. Ending the use of freebies as a reward for stepping into elected office must be the starting point. In this exercise, it is vital to enforce the law in its entirety, requiring political players irrespective of their affiliations to stand accountable.
Such an exercise will only prove useful if the way Pakistan's political conduct and economic decision-making are revamped.
On the one hand, all links between politics at all levels and the grant of patronage must be severed. This will require the establishment of independent structures to oversee the functioning of the civil service without any intrusion from Pakistan's ruling class. Civil servants including senior figures in the police must be kept immune from being posted to or from their positions under orders from elected representatives.
Likewise, the rights of opposition figures must be protected from being blatantly violated in cases involving the police. In Pakistan's journey towards the evolution of its democratic politics, opposition politicians have too often been targeted by their foes using police officers patronised by them.
On the other hand, ending the use of 'freebies' as an acceptable norm in politics is essential, to cleanse Pakistan's economic outlook from a hugely regressive trend. For long, members of Pakistan's ruling class have used their clout to pressurise business interests.
In return, their gains have ranged from favours from the business community for their affiliates to outright favours for ruling politicians. In addition to the apparent rise in the cost of doing business, investors targeted are left unnerved over being effectively harassed repeatedly by the ruling class, unless they pay up.
At a time when Pakistan has just received its 25th bailout loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to avert a balance of payments crisis, much follow-up work needs to be done.
Ending the link between the ruling class and patronage is essential to allow Pakistan to stand on its own feet, and avoid a return to another crisis that will require yet another IMF loan driven by painful conditions. Short of decisive action backed by tough reforms, Pakistan's outlook will just not change for the better.
A friend or a Foe
By: Samina Mumtaz Zehri | October 09, 2024
Balochistan is Pakistan’s treasured province-a land of enigmatic beauty, blessed with, the most talented and bulging Baloch youth that is our richest and most potential human asset.
The potential of our Baloch Youth is as varied as the resources of this rich land. Especially their political acumen that was first of all reorganized by Qauid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinah who had announced a political movement for the rights of the people of Balochistan before partition, that was strongly opposed by Nehru and other Congress leaders. People of Balochistan particularly youth had participated and strived physically and financially for the Independence of Pakistan. Otherwise the Province was kept backward by British rulers.
Scholar Ian Talbot states that the British Baluchistan was socially and economically underdeveloped compared to other parts of British India with an extremely low literacy rate and a mainly rural population. The province was also politically backward. During British rule Baluchistan Agency which excluded Princely States was under the rule of a Chief Commissioner and did not have the same status as other provinces of British India. Yet it was an important province for the All-India Muslim League which, under Muhammad Ali Jinnah, proposed in 1928 that democratic reforms be introduced to Baluchistan.
It is very encouraging to see that our Baloch Youth reposes huge trust on our security forces who protect them against all odds and threats. This trust is manifested by their increasing number in our armed forces. According to Frontier Corps’ statistics a few years ago, up to 30,000 Baloch had been serving in Pakistan Army and the armed forces in which 700 were posted on high officers’ rank. And this number is increasing with every passing day.
Since the establishment of Pakistan as an independent state, our enemies have been eying on the resource-rich province and in order to fulfill their nefarious designs Baloch youth is their soft target. For the last many decades, the so called Baloch human rights activists – vociferous in their slogans against the illegal abductions etc – are accused of turning a blind eye to the anti-state actors’ recruitment of Baloch students into militant groups such as in BLA.
This recruitment is a clear violation of their right to education and employment and a tactic to exploit young people. Through their enchanting slogans under the pretext of Baloch Nationalism or Baloch Independence, the Separatists -cum-Human Rights’ Activists/SHRAs lure the innocent Baloch youth towards their recruitment in insurgent organizations such as Baloch National Army/BNA, Baloch Liberation army/BLA, Baloch Yakjehti Committee/BYC and all other factions of such groups.
These Anti-state actors leave no stone unturned in damaging this province whenever they seize any opportunity. In this regard foreign direct investment is their foremost target. We have seen how anti-state actors such as Balochistan Liberation Army/BLA’s anti-China militant campaign hinders Islamabad’s efforts to strengthen its economy because they always target the assets and personnel belonging to the Belt and Road Initiative’s flagship regional project, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which spans from the northernmost part of Pakistan down to the Arabian Sea port city of Gwadar in Balochistan (Dawn, July 8, 2023). The BLA’s stated goal is to disrupt and undermine CPEC, which alone is estimated to comprise $65 billion in Chinese investment, through a linked anti-China media and militant activity strategy.
In order to sabotage the development and prosperity of Balochistan, these SHRAs have recently, adopted new approach to misguide our Baloch Youth so that they may be indulged in violence and extremism. A recent example of enticing our Baloch Youth and urging them to become violent protestors by such SHRAs is set by Mahrang Baloch. The SHRA Mahrang Baloch works on a nationalistic agenda through her slogan against enforced disappearances.
First of all, she led a march towards Islamabad on the basis of her politically backed and self-imposed agenda of Baloch Genocide. The protest movement led by Mahrang Baloch and other Baloch women in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, could not bear any fruit in any manner except leaving severe mental and physical hardships for our innocent Baloch women.
When Maharang Baloch had been luring these innocent women into politically backed protests on the roads of Islamabad, I had exposed the villainous intent of these protests on the floor of the House in Senate of Pakistan. Because Maharang had exploited innocent Baloch Women, brought them on roads against our Baloch culture and sanctity for women, created law and order situation in the capital for attracting international limelight, targeting our state agencies at the behest of those landlords, sardars and political big wigs of the Province who had been allegedly financing the whole anti-state campaign in order to blackmail the agencies for gaining political shelters.
Being a member of House of Federation the focus of my speech was to expose the true face of those so called local and political leaders of Balochistan, who had never resorted to listen to the grievances of their people and address them as per law. These local leaders who have been ruling Balochistan since its independence from colonial rule, have been merely eating up the resources of Balochistan, its development funds allocated for the health, education and wellbeing of its people and above all assisting the anti-state groups in the province.
These are the “black-hearted sardars” of Balochistan who are involved in all kinds of atrocities against its people by keeping them vulnerable at all levels till the time that the innocent youth is left with no option either to fall a prey to drugs and human smugglers or to get recruited by anti-state agencies such Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA), Balochistan liberation front (BLF) and so on. And this time these so called sardars and political big wigs have chosen Mahrang Baloch for leading such protests, who has familial ties to the BLA.
After the failure of her violent strategy she has now adopted a softer yet severe approach against the state and its agencies through a 5th generation warfare. Her recent interview to a Norwegian human rights forum on social media is a manifestation of this new twist in her approach to defame the state agencies and misguide the Baloach Youth. She has been openly accusing our state agencies of crimes against Baloch Youth and seeking undue favors from international stakeholders besides getting into the international limelight. In fact, the very action of Maharang Baloch must be tried under the treason charges since she has defamed our state agencies at international forum without proving the allegation through irrefutable evidence.
The cynical and objectionable approach of Maharang Baloch gives rise to very crucial questions in the minds of sensible, progressive and talented youth of Balochistan in particular and for the common people of Pakistan in general. The replies to following questions would go a long way in exposing the real face of such SHRAs.
Why have Mahrang Baloch and other Baloch Nationalist/Separatist leaders (especially those sitting abroad and enjoying a lavish life style) not done any work for the education and skill development of the Baloch Youth through exploring such opportunities during their meetings with foreign stakeholders?
What efforts they have made to address the issues of Baloch Youth or victims of forced disappearances in collaboration with their local political leaders? What are those irrefutable and authentic resources or substantial proofs on the basis of which she or her alliances come to know that the security forces of Pakistan are behind such disappearances? Which domestic forums they have used to legally address the issue of Forced Disappearances?
What efforts they have made in order to fight against Insurgent groups such as BLA? Who is financing their visits abroad as part of their political campaign? What proofs they can submit in order to prove the alleged involvement of our state agencies in forced disappearances? On what grounds they raise separatist or nationalistic slogans? Do they deny or admit the Indian and foreign powers’ involvement in sabotaging the law and order and peace in Balochistan? If state agencies do not protect Balochistan and its borders, who will take the responsibility?
Has she done any little efforts to investigate that the forced disappearances of such innocent people of Balochistan are actually conducted by the local influential persons, feudal lords, sardars and their bigwigs whose private jails have already been detected since long? Does she know that a large number of poor laborers, workers and even mine workers and their family members are kept as hostages in such private jails? Has she ever raised any voice against a large number of innocent detainees kept in private jails owned by local sardars since decades?
Does not she know that young people who are forcefully disappeared have been forced to live in hundreds of these darkest dungeons of hell for years? Moving ahead, why does she raise no voice against those influential and political stakeholders of Balochistan who misappropriate the development funds allocated for the development of human capital of Balochistan? why can’t she raise her voice against the poor utilization of a colossal amount of foreign Flood Aid for the uplift of the people of Balochistan after the catastrophic floods in 2022? Last but not the least, on what Terms of condition she finally called off her so-called Dharna in Islamabad?
SCO offerings and Pakistan, India relations
By: Shazia Anwer Cheema | October 09, 2024
The political philosophy needed in the emerging multi-nodal world is surely grounded in the above-mentioned four points. Nevertheless, the ground realities in South Asia raise several questions including whether the SCO can resolve border disputes; enhance people-to-people contacts; and develop high trade among Pakistan, India, Russia, Central Asian States and China because these are some chapters of the SCO success story written in the last 20-plus years. Honestly speaking, answers to the questions are not yet available.
The SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five comprising China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. At the inaugural announcement event, Uzbekistan was invited as an Observer and it joined the new formation the same day. The SCO Charter was signed during the St Petersburg Heads of State Summit in June 2002 and the Charter came into force on Sept 19, 2003. Pakistan and India joined SCO as full members on June 9, 2017, at the Astana Summit.
The SCO is a prodigious success story for Central Asian States as this platform resolved 90% of border disputes among them through SCO sideline meetings. Can it help Pakistan and India resolve the Kashmir issue? Only time can tell.
Since all Central Asian States were part of the former Soviet Union, the SCO logo had two languages - Russian and Chinese. And English that is widely spoken, and the semi-official language in Pakistan and India, is not yet embedded into the SCO logo.
Since SCO is born out of the Shanghai Five, we have to review the Shanghai Five document to understand the aims and objectives that are transferred to SCO because the aims and objectives are the same but with new explanations and diction. The Shanghai Five was established on April 26, 1996, in Shanghai after the Treaty on Deepening Military Trust in Border Regions was signed by China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. The focus of the treaty was resolution of border disputes among members because these former Soviet states were locked in border issues among themselves and with China.
On April 24, 1997, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan signed the Treaty on the Reduction of Military Forces in Border Regions. The first two meetings of the Shanghai Five focused on security CBMs in the border areas between them, as these countries share over 7,000 km long border with China and border problems were a potential threat to the ties. It was also decided that their military forces would not engage in any offensive activities within the border areas; would not conduct military exercises against each other; would limit the scale, level and frequency of military exercises in the border areas; would inform each other about their respective major military activities in the areas within one hundred kilometers from the borders; would invite each other to observe their planned military exercises; would prevent dangerous military activities in the border areas; and would enhance friendly exchanges between the military forces and border patrol forces along with the border areas.
The foremost question that arises is: can Pakistan and India reach this level of understanding and coordination?
Another important achievement of SCO is people-to-people contact and high trade among member states. Since all Central Asian States were former Soviet republics, they have very soft visa regimes. Also the Chinese visa regime is also quite soft for Central Asian countries and Russia. All this is just a dream in the context of Indo-Pak ties, but we know only dreamers can change the world.
Exodus of youth: a reflection on systemic failures
By: Gulab Umid | October 09, 2024
The reasons behind this mass migration are deeply rooted in the systemic failures that have plagued Pakistan for decades. The story of a young person who, after sixteen years of education, ends up as a street sweeper while someone with minimal qualifications, backed by political loyalty, is appointed head of an institution, is a glaring example of this failure. The institutions that should be serving the public are instead filled with individuals who are more committed to their political affiliations than to the welfare of the people. This misplaced loyalty leads to the appointment of unqualified individuals to positions of power, relegating the educated to subordinate roles. In such an environment, the value of education diminishes, and the morale of the educated workforce plummets.
The decline of education in Pakistan is further exacerbated by the commercialisation of academic credentials. It has become a lucrative business, where even a few rupees can secure a matriculation certificate, and higher degrees can be bought without any real academic effort. Schools, colleges and universities have become mere shells of their intended purpose, offering education in name only. Instead of being provided with the facilities and support they need to thrive, students are often diverted into activities that detract from their studies, treating education as a burden rather than a pathway to success.
The responsibility for this dismal state of affairs lies squarely with the government. Every administration, through its cabinet members, has contributed to the degradation of the education system, leaving young people with little hope for a future within Pakistan. It is no wonder, then, that many young Pakistanis see no option but to seek opportunities elsewhere. They believe that abroad, they can finally prove their worth - something that seems increasingly impossible within their own country.
This trend of outward migration is not just a personal choice; it is a right - an assertion of their need to find a place where their talents and hard work will be recognised and rewarded. In Pakistan, even those with a master's degree find themselves struggling to secure a job, facing a bureaucratic system that offers little in the way of merit-based opportunities.
The situation is dire, but it is not beyond repair. There is still time to address the underlying issues and prevent further brain drain. The government must take decisive action to restore the integrity of the education system; ensure that merit prevails over political loyalty; and create an environment where young people see a future for themselves in Pakistan. If these steps are not taken, Pakistan risks facing movements similar to those in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, where public frustration reached a boiling point.
Jaishankar's bizarre rhetoric on Kashmir
By: Asif Durrani | October 09, 2024
The issues of Kashmir and Palestine are the legacies of the colonial rule in which people were deprived of their right to self-determination; their plight continues to this date. Israel has used the salami tactics to slice off Palestinian territory and continues this tactic. Take a look at the Israeli map in 1948 when it took birth by dislodging the Palestinian people. Israel has increased its territory three times since then. Its adventure of depriving the hapless Palestinians continues unabated with the support of the big powers, led by the United States.
The people of Jammu and Kashmir have faced the same tragedy since 1947. Initially, India assured the people of Kashmir that they would be given the right to exercise their will through a UN-supervised plebiscite in the name of managing the affairs of the state. Special provisions in the Indian constitution (articles 370 and 35-A) were meant to assure the Kashmiris that their self-determination rights would not be affected. The UN resolution 91 (1951) unequivocally challenged the Indian sham elections by declaring that any administrative or political measures taken by India would not constitute the exercise of the will of the people, which would be possible only through a UN-supervised plebiscite.
What India did on 5 August 2019 was challenging the international order enshrined in the UN charter. By revoking articles 370 and 35-A, the Hindu nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi not only swallowed the entire state of occupied Jammu and Kashmir but also reduced its status to a union territory under the Lieutenant Governor - an administrative office under the supervision of Home Ministry in the Centre. Subsequently, India has imposed extended lockdowns and curfews; jailed all the genuine Kashmir leaders; violently suppressed peaceful protests; resorted to extrajudicial killings of innocent Kashmiris in fake encounters and so-called cordon and search operations; and imposed collective punishments, destroying entire villages. Access to occupied Kashmir, demanded by the UN High Commission for Human Rights and over a dozen Special Rapporteurs, has been denied by New Delhi.
The purpose of the entire exercise was obvious: to change the demography of the Muslim-majority state to a Hindu majority state and present to the world "the final solution" of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute as a fait accompli.
During his address at the UN General Assembly on 28 September, External Affairs Minister Jaishankar enlightened his audience that "[the] UN is a testimony to the agreed principles and shared objectives of the world order. Respect for international law and commitments are among the foremost." He continued: "If we are to ensure global security and stability, then it is essential that those who seek to lead set the right example. Nor can we countenance egregious violations of our basic tenets."
But Mr Jaishankar contradicted himself when declaring Pakistan a guilty party and telling the world that "the issue to be resolved between us is now only the vacation of illegally occupied Indian territory by Pakistan." By using such belligerent language, the Indian minister made fun of the international body and its resolutions calling for granting Kashmiris their inalienable right to self-determination. The presence of the United Nations Military Observer Group in India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP) should remind the Hindutva dispensation that Kashmir remains a dispute unless decided under the UN resolutions or by the parties (India and Pakistan). Therefore, India, through bizarre rhetoric, cannot wish away Pakistan's locus standi on Kashmir. Amazingly, India aspires to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council while conveniently flouting this august body's resolutions and decisions.
Another favourite theme trumpeted by the Indian hawks, especially Mr Jaishankar, against Pakistan is terrorism without realising that the Indian state terrorism is the root cause of unrest in the illegally occupied Jammu and Kashmir. There is a need to address the root causes of terrorism, such as poverty, injustice and foreign occupation, and distinguish genuine freedom struggles from terrorism. Suppose India is interested in addressing the "terrorism" issue. In that case, it should make common causes with Pakistan's proposal presented by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in the UNGA last year of creating a Committee of the General Assembly to oversee the balanced implementation of all four pillars of the Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy.
Unfortunately, Pakistan bashing has been a favourite business of the Indian ruling elite across the board, but the Hindutva forces have crossed all the limits of decency. The acerbic remarks against Pakistan, such as "making Pakistan irrelevant", reflect the mindset rooted in hate and Islamophobia. No wonder India is in cahoots with Israel in the ongoing genocide in Gaza and Lebanon and the target killings in Iran. Indian soldiers or nationals are serving "shoulder-to-shoulder" with the Israeli genocide forces. Mr Jaishankar's one-line statement about "war in Ukraine and conflict in Gaza" looked like running with the hare and hunting with the hound; moreover, India has yet to call Israeli actions genocide. Both Israel and India may use brutal power to subjugate the people against their will, but history has proved that you cannot win against the will of the people.
Pakistan’s strategic importance to the SCO
By: Dr Zafar Khan Safdar | October 09, 2024
THE Shanghai Five, which China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan founded in 1996 to resolve border issues and security concerns, served as the model for the SCO. After Uzbekistan joined the organisation in 2001, it was formally called the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and its purpose was expanded to include political, economic and cultural cooperation. During the 16th Heads of State Summit in Astana in June 2017, Pakistan became a permanent member of the SCO. China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are now the eight full members of the SCO. Its influence and reach are further increased by the presence of many discussion partners and observer nations. The organization’s structure, which revolves on a number of Councils and Committees, encourages collaboration across different industries.
Pakistan’s strategic location at the intersection of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East makes it an excellent trading route, making the SCO a key platform for realising the goal of Eurasian integration. Encouraging joint connection capacities is essential to realising the common goal of a regional economy integrated. Pakistan is dedicated to upholding the Shanghai Spirit, which is a symbol of respect and trust amongst people for the growth and prosperity of everyone. Over 40% of people on the planet are represented by SCO, which speaks for their collective voice and goals. Pakistan is prepared to host two meetings of the SCO Member States’ Council of Heads of Government (Prime Ministers) and Ministers Responsible for Foreign Economic and Foreign Trade Activities in Islamabad this month (12-16 October 2024).
Situated at the crossroads of South West and South Asia, Pakistan offers trade and energy linkages through its sea lanes to the landlocked Central Asian countries (CARs) by providing a communication highway. With three major emerging economic partners in the SCO, Pakistan can improve its existing infrastructure of energy resources and initiate new infrastructure projects to maximize the potential of economic gains. Pakistan’s permanent membership in the SCO is significant since it gives the nation the chance to take the lead in trade, commerce, counterterrorism and regional stability. Because of its abundant resources for producing gas and oil, the SCO has the ability to influence the global geopolitical, economic and strategic environment. States in South Asia are experiencing serious shortages of energy as a result of the rapidly population expansion driving up energy needs.
South Asian nations have an ideal chance to launch new energy projects through the SCO that will not only supply energy but also advance economic integration. The two massive projects, the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) and Iran-Pakistan gas pipelines, will benefit the area and China is determined to invest in projects including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor. The Asian Development Bank has identified 52 potential roads to connect the CARs and five seaports to connect Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Pakistani ports will be connected through 31 roads to central Asia, increasing regional trade by 160 percent.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), involving 65 nations, seeks to establish a modern Silk Road connecting China with Africa, Europe and Central Asia. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is a key element, providing China access to the Arabian Sea via Gwadar Port, optimizing trade routes for cost and time efficiency. As a flagship BRI project, CPEC enhances economic connectivity through infrastructure development, energy cooperation and trade facilitation. Projects like roads, railways and ports are expected to boost Pakistan’s economy and improve links with Central Asia. By addressing Pakistan’s energy crisis through power generation and distribution, CPEC can enhance industrial productivity and spur economic growth. Pakistan must also strengthen trade with other SCO members, leverage its agricultural and textile sectors for exports, and engage in cultural exchange programs to foster tourism and business opportunities.
From a security perspective, the SCO membership is particularly critical since Pakistan has been afflicted by extremism and terrorism. Pakistan may work with member nations to drive out terrorism from its borders and share its expertise in a platform provided by the SCO. Coordination between Pakistan and India is crucial for the regional development and stability of South Asia as well as the development of South Asian trade routes and energy corridors. The SCO can provide a neutral venue for both countries to discuss and address their concerns through dialogue and peaceful approaches. Economic prosperity is closely linked with foreign policy and the SCO can provide a forum for creating a soft image for enhancing trade relationships and exploring new markets for trade. Pakistan can use the SCO forums to highlight its sacrifices and success against terrorism to improve its image in the region.
The SCO offers numerous opportunities for Pakistan, but challenges such as geopolitical tensions, economic disparities and issues related to terrorism and extremism persist. Ongoing tensions between member states, particularly between Pakistan and India, complicate regional cooperation. Economic disparities among members can hinder collaborative efforts and despite collective initiatives, terrorism remains a significant challenge for Pakistan. As the host of the SCO, Pakistan stands to benefit from increased market access to Central Asian markets, infrastructure development through initiatives like CPEC and joint security efforts that can enhance stability. Pakistan’s geostrategic location, economic potential and active involvement in various initiatives make it a vital player in the SCO’s objectives. As the SCO evolves, Pakistan’s role will likely become even more significant, especially amid ongoing geopolitical changes and emerging economic opportunities. By leveraging its strengths and addressing challenges, Pakistan can contribute to a more stable, prosperous, and interconnected Eurasia.
Unmasking Fitna-al-khawarij Iftikhar H. Jazib
By: Gulab Umid | October 09, 2024
COAS General Syed Asim Munir recently addressed the national conference of Islamic scholars which was organized to promote consensus against terrorist and violent extremist ideologies. Renowned Muftis declared the terrorist outfit Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as “Fitna-al-Khawarij,” outlawing it in Islamic Shariah, while religious scholars endorsed the idea that militant commanders should not use revered religious titles. The Army chief issued a warning to terrorist and violent extremist outfits, stating that they must adhere to Shariah’s limits to be considered Muslims and they must uphold the Pakistan Constitution to gain recognition as Pakistanis. He cited Shariah in conjunction with the Constitution, as Article 227 mandates that Pakistan cannot enact any law that contradicts the teachings of the Quran-o-Sunnat. Therefore, the statement of COAS General Asim was also in accordance with the Constitution of Pakistan. The conference was a mega success against terrorist and violent extremist ideologies, as the use of the prefix “Kharji” with the name of terrorist leaders would expose them for their deviant conduct in society.
Terrorist groups are traumatizing the entire nation by perpetrating suicide bombings and running an intense propaganda campaign to create confusion in the public mind about the necessity, legality and justification of war against terrorism. The most regrettable aspect of our media is the use of revered religious titles for militant leaders, which help them connect their propaganda with the religious sentiments of the general public. Fitna-al-Khawarij does not have Islamic status, and its commanders conceal their criminality by using incorrect religious titles. The term ‘Taliban’ gained popularity in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, attracting a positive response from the general public. Baitullah Mehsud, the founder of Fitna-al-Khawarij, and his successor, Hakimullah Mehsud, did not use a religious title and based their campaign on exploitation of the Afghan Taliban’s public image. The misuse of religious titles such as Maulana, Mullah, Hafiz, Qari, and Mufti further helps Fitna-al-Khawarij commanders connect their propaganda with the religious emotions of the people.
Most militant leaders and fighters lack basic religious education and have neglected learning from Ulema who have dedicated their lives to studying Islam. Fitna-al-Khawarij has only a few members who completed Dars-e-Nizami, the fundamental religious course at Deobandi Madaris. The media should deny them religious titles, as this proves they are not true religious personalities. Leaders like Fazlullah, a matriculate who worked as a lift operator in Swat, misused the title ‘Mullah’ without completing Madressah education. Omer Khalid Khorasani, also a matriculate, worked as a blacksmith, while Mangal Bagh, the commander of Lashkar-e-Islam, had no Islamic education and previously worked as a bus conductor. These facts highlight that Fitna-al-Khawarij does not possess Islamic legitimacy, with its commanders concealing their criminality through the incorrect use of religious titles.
In Pakistani society, religious titles hold great respect and serve to honour local religious teachers; however, terrorists’ misuse of these titles is misleading the general public. Regrettably, the media utilizes these terrorist-promoted prefixes, elevating them in the public’s perception. Terrorists and extremist forces in Pakistan are fighting in the name of so-called Jihad, but their practices do not align with true Islamic teachings. They are always trying to give false justification for their brutal act by terming it permissible in Islam which reflects that they neither have basic knowledge of Islam nor do they care for the Islamic virtues. These terrorists not only misinterpret Islam but also use religious titles for their vested interests. They have successfully exploited innocent people’s religious affiliations and used them for inhumane and brutal activities.
Militants who claim to be true followers of Islamic teachings prove to be the worst, highly insensitive towards humanity and vicious by nature. Their involvement in un-Islamic activities, such as drug trafficking, kidnapping, bank robbery, exploitation of women and children, suicide bombings, and ruthless beheadings, serves as crude evidence of their immoral practices. They follow the agenda of anti-Pakistan and anti-Islam forces, aiming to create fear and panic in society. Eminent religious scholars and Grand Muftis have unanimously rejected their deviant ideology in the Fatwa, Paigham-e-Pakistan, declaring that Islam entirely prohibits the unjustified killing of innocent people. The Holy Quran teaches that ‘killing a human being is equivalent to killing the entire human race.’ Therefore, we must highlight the criminal activities of terrorists to challenge their ideology and credibility.
The general public is non-participative in counterterrorism campaigns due to the religious perception of militant leaders. The basic reason has been our inability to persuade common people to report or indicate terrorists in their surroundings, streets, relatives, or neighbours. Law enforcement agencies alone cannot accomplish this task. People’s participation must be a fundamental component of our approach, as their active involvement can eradicate the threat of terrorism from society. Media, especially electronic, can play a dominant role in educating the general public. This campaign will be very effective as one of the counter radicalization measures, which will help educate society and youth on the actual personality traits of the terrorists and the denial of local support to them.
Reviving Pakistan-Iran energy lifeline
By: Gulab Umid | October 09, 2024
PAKISTAN’S economic quagmire can be attributed, in no small part, to the crippling costs of energy—be it electricity, gas or petrol. In stark contrast, our neighbouring Muslim ally, Iran, is blessed with vast reserves of oil and natural gas. Back in 2010, in what appeared to be a promising move, Pakistan and Iran inked an agreement to construct a nearly 1,900-kilometer-long gas pipeline, connecting Iran’s South Pars Gas Field to the energy-starved regions of Balochistan and Sindh in Pakistan. The project was slated to supply an impressive 750 million to 1 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day for 25 years, with the potential to significantly mitigate Pakistan’s mounting energy crisis.
However, due to the weight of U.S. sanctions on Iran, this pivotal project has languished in limbo for more than a decade. Iran, despite international pressures, has fulfilled its part of the deal, completing its section of the pipeline at a cost of $2 billion. In contrast, Pakistan has failed to make any meaningful progress on its side, leading to frustration and growing impatience on Iran’s part. In a recent interview, Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, underscored that the timeline for this project cannot be extended further. He reiterated that the Iranian oil company seeks to resolve this deadlock through constructive dialogue. Iran’s warnings should not be taken lightly—Tehran has already hinted at approaching the International Court of Arbitration in Paris, with the possibility of an $18 billion claim against Pakistan for non-compliance.
In fact, on February 23, Pakistan’s Cabinet Committee on Energy merely approved the construction of an 80-kilometer segment of the pipeline—a tepid response given the urgency of the situation. Analysts rightfully argue that Pakistan’s lacklustre response leaves Iran with every justification to escalate the matter legally. Such negligence, especially on a project of this magnitude, is not only irresponsible but also perilously short-sighted.
The completion of the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline is not merely an infrastructural endeavour; it is a strategic imperative that has the potential to reshape Pakistan’s economic landscape. The importance of addressing Pakistan’s severe energy crisis through a reliable and cost-effective supply of natural gas cannot be overstated. The government must move beyond lip service and embrace tangible, actionable steps to fulfil its part of the bargain. Engaging diplomatically with Iran to resolve the deadlock is imperative, as allowing this matter to devolve into international litigation could result in crippling economic penalties and further deteriorate Pakistan’s already fragile fiscal state.
This pipeline project stands as a beacon of hope—a venture that could alleviate Pakistan’s energy woes and provide a semblance of economic stability. However, inaction, complacency and a lack of political will are the gravest threats to this prospect. It is imperative that the government recognizes the gravity of the situation and takes decisive action to revive the project without further delay. The broader national interest demands no less. The successful completion of this pipeline would not only ensure a much-needed boost to Pakistan’s energy reserves but also solidify bilateral relations with Iran, setting the stage for enhanced regional cooperation and stability.
The stakes are too high for Pakistan to treat this matter with the same indifference that has characterized its approach for the past decade. The time for complacency has long passed—Pakistan must either rise to the occasion or face the repercussions of its failure on the global stage.
Sham elections in occupied Kashmir
By: Ahmed Ali | October 08, 2024
The residents of Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK) have once again endured significant distress stemming from the recent state assembly elections, conducted after a decade long hiatus and characterized by allegations of electoral malpractices. Final voting phase has concluded with results and subsequent government formation anticipated in this month i.e. October 2024. The outcome of this electoral process will serve as a critical indicator of public sentiment regarding the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution. This pivotal moment in IIOJK’s political landscape necessitates a thorough examination of its implications for regional governance and societal response.
Some of the Indian and IIOJK’s key political parties, vehemently opposed to the repeal of these constitutional provisions, including the Congress, Communist Party of India, Communist Party of India (Marxist), National Conference, Peoples Democratic Party, DravidaMunnetraKazhagam (DMK), and Trinamool. Congress and its major IIOJK-based political affiliate, the National Conference, are running in the assembly elections on the platform of restoring the revoked constitutional articles.
Since 2019, the Modi government has implemented far-reaching changes — administrative, electoral, demographic, and domicile rules — to pave the way for elections, with the goal of consolidating its 2019 action and claiming that this has been ‘accepted’ by the people of J&K, with ‘normalcy’ returning. In fact, last month, prior to the announcement of the election date, the government significantly strengthened the powers of the lieutenant-governor (LG), who is appointed by Delhi, in order to severely limit the authority of the next ‘elected’ government. The Modi government has chosen to keep central control, knowing that the BJP or its proxies will not win the election and refusing to delegate authority to anybody else.
The LG was given broad administrative and security powers, including control over the police, civil worker transfers and postings, prosecutorial sanctions, and other public order issues. His actions will not be reviewed by the Council of Ministers, and his nominees will be able to attend cabinet meetings. Commenting on this, Omar Abdullah stated the chief minister’s office had been reduced to “a powerless rubber stamp” while Congress denounced it as the “murder of democracy”. This, however, was just the latest move to weaken the people of occupied Kashmir. Two important post-2019 acts sought to restructure the electoral map and change the state of play to the harm of Kashmiris. In 2020, India’s Delimitation Commission established new electoral constituencies, with Jammu receiving six additional members in the 90-member J&K Assembly and Kashmir receiving only one, despite the fact that Kashmir’s population much outnumbers Jammu’s. This gerrymandering was intended to give Jammu more representation, reducing Muslims’ political weight in the legislature and shifting the balance to Hindus.
Demographic changes, including new domicile rules, aimed to disenfranchise Kashmiris. Following the repeal of Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution, non-Kashmiri outsiders were granted domicile status and the right to vote. Over the last five years, an undetermined amount of domicile certificates have been issued. In July 2022, even temporary residents were granted voting rights. Again, this was condemned in Jammu and Kashmir as a reckless attempt to change the demographics.In the face of such deceptive moves, what can be expected in the election, albeit to a toothless legislature? What does the poll signal for the BJP government’s ‘consolidation’ goals? The National Conference, led by Omar Abdullah, is highly expected to win the election.
In its election campaign, the party committed to fight for the restoration of Article 370, which granted J&K special status, abolish all post-2019 policies that degraded Kashmir’s autonomy, and promote India-Pakistan dialogue. Abdullah further stated that the NC’s first item of business would be for the assembly to pass a resolution calling for the restoration of statehood and condemning Delhi’s decision to remove J&K of its special status. If this occurs, it will do little to further the BJP’s goal in the area. In truth, a squabble between the ‘elected’ administration and the LG is apparently unavoidable, and rather than establishing ‘stability’, it will plunge the region into further political chaos.
The most critical factor will undoubtedly be whether people voice their displeasure with Delhi and rejection of the occupation through a protest vote. Elections in Jammu and Kashmir have long been regarded as pointless and illegitimate under Indian control. This is apparent in the abysmally low public participation, particularly in light of boycott calls by genuine Kashmiri leaders, depriving the polls of any validity.
However, the comparatively high voter turnout in the 2014 LokSabha election implies that voting may become a ‘new’ form of resistance and expression of Kashmiris’ desire for freedom. The Modi government is facing challenges in securing endorsement of its 2019 action and may encounter new obstacles from the elections that boosts the popular Kashmiri demand for ‘azadi’. While sham elections in J&K cannot replace a genuine exercise of self-determination for the Kashmiri people, it may serve as mean for them to express their rejection of the occupation.
Impactful Address at UNGA
By: Muhammad Zahid Raffat | October 08, 2024
Prime Minister Muhammad Shehnaz Sharif has returned home after an extended visit to New York and London. He travelled to New York via London and followed the same route back after delivering another address at the 79th session of the UN General Assembly. In his speech, he reiterated Pakistan’s longstanding principled stance on the pressing issues of Kashmir and Palestine. He emphasised that India has been illegally occupying Jammu and Kashmir since 1948, while Israel has denied Palestinians their right to freedom since 1947.
During his speech, which marked his second address to the UNGA in his second term as Prime Minister since April 2022, Shehbaz Sharif drew a powerful comparison between the conflicts in Palestine and Kashmir. He should have also pointed out that both issues emerged in quick succession in 1947 and 1948, yet neither has been resolved. Both regions continue to suffer, with the UN General Assembly, its Security Council, and the international community failing to fulfil their obligations, while gross human rights violations and ongoing bloodshed in occupied Kashmir and Palestine are ignored.
Pakistan has consistently maintained a foreign policy that prioritises these two critical issues, raising awareness of the plight of Kashmiris and Palestinians at every international and bilateral platform. However, the significance of highlighting them at the UNGA cannot be overstated, as India and Israel have only intensified their atrocities in the occupied territories. These actions continue without any meaningful pressure, oversight, or remorse from the global community.
PM Shehbaz Sharif’s strong condemnation of these human rights abuses served as a stark reminder to the international community that it cannot remain a passive observer. The international community’s failure to forcefully challenge both India and Israel has been a persistent source of disappointment for Pakistan and other nations worldwide.
It is also worth mentioning that the Pakistani delegation, along with representatives from other Muslim states, staged a walkout when the Israeli Prime Minister began his speech. This was more than a symbolic gesture; it was a clear demonstration of the growing anger and frustration within the Islamic world over Israel’s continued atrocities in Palestine.
In addition to addressing the issue of Palestine, the Prime Minister also issued a strong warning to India, stating that Pakistan would decisively respond to any Indian aggression across the Line of Control or in Azad Jammu and Kashmir. He made it clear that his government is fully committed to safeguarding Pakistan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This firm stance against potential Indian provocations signals Pakistan’s readiness to defend its national interests while remaining committed to peace in the region.
Besides these two critical issues, the Prime Minister also highlighted the urgent need for climate justice. He pointed out the inherent unfairness in expecting poorer nations like Pakistan to bear the costs of climate change caused by the greed and excesses of developed industrial nations. Unfortunately, these wealthy countries continue to pursue their own interests, seemingly indifferent to the disproportionate burden placed on poorer nations.
In all fairness, the Pakistani Prime Minister struck the right tone in his compelling speech before the 197-member UNGA, standing on par with other world leaders. While attending the UNGA’s 79th session, the Prime Minister also took the opportunity to meet with numerous world leaders and heads of international organisations, working diligently to promote and strengthen Pakistan’s bilateral relations with friendly countries and international bodies.
Building prosperity
By: Humayun Akhtar Khan | October 07, 2024
While decision-makers make vacuous claims and city folks spread despondency, my constituents quietly struggle to make ends meet.
I contested the last general elections from what many refer to as a rural community. It is a place where government services, such that exist in the country, are hard to come by. The people are on their own, using their genius and imagination to survive.
While decision-makers make vacuous claims and city folks spread despondency, my constituents quietly struggle to make ends meet. Each day they toil to increase produce off the land or track the market or connect to urban centres. When the government’s message is about sacrifice and ‘doom and gloom’, they are filled with purpose and hope. I could not have imagined so much potential among people living with such privation. They are not alone. Such stories abound throughout the country.
It is possible to revive the economy with the ‘can do’ spirit and enterprise of tens of millions of such Pakistanis. After many years of listless economic performance, it is time for a change of mood in the country. We must now actively rebuild the economy while staying within the limits of fiscal prudence. Despite their marginal standing in our public policy space, SMEs and village enterprises can play a key role in boosting economic activity.
Given our present dearth of resources, a major boost to capital-intensive growth would have to wait. SMEs fit well with present circumstances, as they do not need high amounts of capital, energy or technology. Yet, they afford a simple path to empower millions to better their lives. With shrinking basic services, citizens have suffered years of neglect, and their capacity to contribute to the country’s economic life reduced.
Buoyant SMEs are a tried and tested route to prosperity. They create new entrepreneurs and workers in the economy. As these small firms prosper, they will accumulate capital and know-how.
Worldwide, small firms have laid the base for the economy’s industrialization. In China, Vietnam and South Korea, small enterprises helped large swathes of people exit poverty. Also, they increase domestic demand for goods produced by other firms in the country. The most important benefit is that they create jobs.
Though business activity is innate to humans, experts trace the role of SMEs in industrialisation to the village enterprises of Europe. England and Scotland made wool fabric, leather goods, shoes, ceramics, furniture and iron products. France made silk. Germany and Switzerland made colour dyes, tools and clocks.
Later, the US, Japan and the rest of Asia followed. Japan produced silk, dyes and ceramics. Their iron foundries built tools. These were small firms whose know-how and experience accumulated to later make them dominant names in the world.
Scientific discoveries had a big role in Europe’s industrialization. But their application in industry would not have been possible without a large number of SMEs ready to acquire new technology. It is the principle of ‘evolving’ comparative advantage at work. As small firms earn profit, they add technology in bits and pieces. These entrepreneurs and specialized workers laid the foundation for mass production and later high-tech firms in Europe.
SMEs are quick to acquire new technologies. With the introduction of power looms, hand weavers of fabric in the UK became mass producers of textiles, boosted also by cotton and silk from colonies. Colour and dye makers in Germany and Japan laid the foundation for their chemical industry. With new furnaces and machines, ceramic producers moved to mass production of crockery and tableware. Soon they built a global network of markets for their goods.
According to the World Economic Forum, SMEs create nearly 70 per cent of jobs and contribute 70 per cent to world GDP. They have the potential to foster extensive growth and innovation.
Many excellent companies started as low-tech manufacturers of simple products. Matsushita began by making lamp sockets in 1918, while Samsung began life as a grocery store in 1938. Huawei started off in Shenzhen as the sales agent for Hong Kong made goods. There are many more examples of firms whose present dominance is a far cry from their modest beginnings.
These firms built on their then-low knowledge to diversify and steadily move up. Their countries suffered wars and colonization, but the firms had access to capital and ideas. With the spirit to improve quality, they became global powerhouses.
China and South Korea are the best-known recent examples of leveraging growth via small enterprises. SMEs was the first stage in Mr Deng Xiaoping’s economic development programme. Beginning in 1978, it transformed the Chinese industry. In China, SME industrial output grew 28 per cent per year for 22 years between 1978 and 2000. Exports from these units earned foreign exchange with which China imported industrial equipment for the next stage of mass production of goods. In 10 years, the number of small firms grew from 1.5 million to 19 million.
The wealth generated by these enterprises created a huge demand for domestically produced goods. It trained entrepreneurs and workers for the next stage of industrialization.
In South Korea, then-president Park announced a sweeping rural community development programme, the Saemaul Undong. South Korea rapidly raised its agricultural yields and increased low-tech industrial production. The programme connected the whole country with a transport network. South Korea spent about 2.5 per cent of GDP annually on the programme. “Ultimately, this was the key programme in the country’s long-term economic development,” ADB.
Pakistan must move from empty and shallow promises of help to SMEs to a national programme of support. The government may set up a dedicated team to study and prepare a plan. They must draw on the experience of China and South Korea. A new law should recognize SMEs as legal entities. It should define SMEs and register them; if possible, with tax comfort. This would enable them to apply for municipal services and avail credit from the formal sector. It would also allow them to resist extortion by state functionaries. Unwittingly, the government has forced SMEs to stay in the informal sector.
The government of Pakistan’s frequent efforts to increase SME credit do not bear results, as small firms cannot meet banks’ paper and collateral requirements. The government should also strengthen the national market. Contract enforcement would be a big help. Small firms must have the certainty that they will receive payments for services and goods delivered to distant customers. A national market needs a logistics network for quick input supply and delivery.
The SME programme must have a suitable institutional setup, from the federal to local governments. Their officials should be trained to support entrepreneurship. They must share ideas and information about new products and link small firms with financial institutions and export markets. They should also link SMEs with national and international technical support and help with skills development.
Quality must be an integral part of this plan so that at least some small firms become exporters. The government may set up local offices of the Pakistan Standards and Quality Authority to enforce minimum standards. Local government leaders must receive orientation so that they inspire in SMEs a quest for excellence by setting high standards for entrepreneurs’ performance and innovation.
Years of economic policy whose only goal is to avoid default have exhausted the country. During these years, the government’s main message has been to increase taxes and prices. This extractive public policy has left the people despondent and exasperated. There is a dire need to improve the self-belief of our people and include them in the economic mainstream. Otherwise, there is a risk of the country descending into social instability.
Diaspora's role in promoting health care in Pakistan
By: Shahid Javed Burki | October 07, 2024
Physicians of Pakistani origin living and working in the United States constitute an important part of their country's diaspora. The size of the Pakistani diaspora is now estimated at 700,000 or 0.2 per cent of the American population. Those who have moved to the United States account for 0.3 per cent of the Pakistani population. As I will take up later in this article, I and one Pakistani doctor have played active roles in getting the diaspora involved in the affairs of their country. While I established an institution based in Lahore that is now named after me, Dr Nasim Ashraf developed a close relationship with General Pervez Musharraf who gave him a position as a member of his cabinet.
Nasim Ashraf has recently self-published a book that provides a detailed account of the way Pakistani physicians under his leadership began to work together under an effective organisation called AAPNA. The acronym stands for the Association of Physicians of Pakistani descent in North America. Ashraf's book is appropriately titled Ringside, since it provides a view of the political ring that he watched from the sidelines in Pakistan. The book focuses on the role the Pakistani physicians have played in helping the country of their origin to improve the situation of health which has caused economists such as myself to worry how the country's poor performance in the sector of health is likely to affect its economic, social and political progress.
Pakistan's health system as redesigned by the 18th Amendment to the Constitution has passed on the responsibility of providing healthcare of the citizens to the provincial governments. They have not been effective in performing this role. There are a number of problems with the system. Of these, four are important: lack of finance; deep differences in coverage provided in the urban and rural areas; not enough focus on child- and mother-care; and a serious shortage of paramedics, nurses in particular. Taking the last first.
A paramedic is a healthcare professional whose main role has been to respond to emergency calls for medical help. Following the response, the affected person is transferred to a well-established medical facility such as hospitals and clinics. This system was put to test during the Covid crisis when Pakistan performed better than neighbouring India in part because the pandemic there struck difficult-to-reach slums in the highly population-dense city of Mumbai. Pakistan has only 106,000 nurses to serve a population now estimated at 240 million. As discussed below, the Burki Institute of Public Policy (BIPP) has launched a programme to increase the number of paramedics in the country, in particular in the areas around the megacity of Lahore.
The total expenditure by the federal and provincial governments combined is only 1.4 per cent of national income, most of which is spent in cities and large towns. The total expenditure on healthcare is about one-fourth of the 5 per cent recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The government shortfall is compensated to some extent by private sector health enterprises. Several analysts have concluded that 70 per cent of the country's large and growing populations is being served by private healthcare institutions who do their work without any involvement of the public sector.
Returning to the role played by physicians who have a large presence in the Pakistani diaspora in the United States, it should be noted that before Ashraf institionalised their Pakistani operations, several of them had funded the establishment of large modern hospital in Pakistan's major cities. The Doctors Hospital in Lahore and Al Shifa Hospital in Islamabad are good examples of these efforts. A cancer hospital in Karachi was also built by the diaspora doctors. Several Pakistani-American doctors gave up their practices in the United States and returned to work in the hospitals they and their colleagues had promoted in Pakistan's major cities. For instance, Lahore's National Hospital employs several diaspora physicians who provide major services to the visiting patients.
However, Ashraf worked to get medical care to the under-served parts and populations of the country. To achieve this objective, he established the National Commission for Human Development (NCHD) on July 22, 2002. "I was elated. I simply could not believe it was happening because of one man, General Pervez Musharraf, who was willing to spend political capital on this idea," wrote Ashraf in his book Ringside. The NCHD defined its targets, all of them ambitious, as follows: Increase literacy rate from 43 per cent of the population in 2002 to 78 per cent by 2025 with focus on female education; ensure universal primary education by enrolling all out-of-school children estimated at that time to number 15 million; reduce infant and maternal mortality rate by 30 per cent; reduce population growth rate from 2.8 per cent to 1.5 per cent. These were ambitious targets and most of them were not met. But that notwithstanding, the NCHD brought comfort and development to millions of people around the country.
I will now turn briefly to the work the BIPP is doing in improving the supply of paramedics in the country. The BIPP was initially set up as the Institute of Public Policy (IPP) at the urging of my late friend Sartaj Aziz who at that time was the Vice Chancellor of Beaconhouse National University (BNU). The funding for IPP was to be provided by the BNU. He wanted me to chair the institution by moving to Pakistan, something I was not prepared to do. While I would by an absentee chairman, the institution would be managed by a local employee. When Sartaj resigned and left Lahore for Islamabad, the BNU funding ceased. At that time the Burki family stepped in with the needed funds and decided to change the name of the institute to Burki Institute of Public Policy, the BIPP. I was about to close the institution down but was advised by my late relative AZK Sherdil to talk to Shahid Najam who had recently returned after more than two decades of service at the United Nations. Najam came to see me and surprised me by indicating that he would be happy work at BIPP without any compensation.
I would count him as a member of the Pakistani diaspora who is committed to work to raise the level of development of his native land. One recent initiative he has launched is to provide scholarship to girls from relatively poor families to study paramedic disciplines. That way the BIPP would work to relieve some of the shortages from which Pakistan's health sector suffers.
Manipur crisis
By: Maria Mansab| October 07, 2024
Since May 2023, the northeastern Indian state of Manipur has been gripped by a violent conflict that has claimed the lives of at least 237 people and displaced over 60,000 residents. What started as ethnic unrest has rapidly escalated into a complex political crisis, further fueled by PM Narendra Modi’s refusal to address the issue head-on. The ongoing violence, primarily between the Meitei and Kuki communities, is poised to unravel the very fabric of India’s territorial integrity.
Manipur, home to 3.2 million people, has turned into a war zone, with both ethnic violence and government suppression reaching new heights. Curfews have been imposed, and internet blackouts are in place, yet Modi’s government seems paralyzed, incapable of diffusing the situation. This failure of governance comes as no surprise, especially given Modi’s reluctance to speak on the issue during India’s general election. Critics from opposition parties have frequently criticized Modi for his silence and his unwavering support of the state’s Chief Minister, N. Biren Singh.
Singh, a member of the dominant Meitei community and Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has exacerbated the conflict with his biased handling of the crisis. The Meiteis, who make up just over half of Manipur’s population, have long held significant political power and dominance in Manipur. The conflict started after a controversial ruling by the Manipur High Court. This ruling proposed granting the Meiteis a special tribal status, a move that enraged the state’s minority Kuki community, whose members have historically been protected by such status.
The Kukis, who inhabit Manipur’s more underdeveloped hill areas, view the court’s decision as an existential threat. Their demands for autonomy have since escalated into a call for full independence. “We want freedom! We want independence from the Meitei! We want independence from Manipur!” a Kuki protester shouted during one of the many rallies that have taken place. What was once a demand for territorial autonomy has morphed into a full-blown separatist movement, and the threat of India’s division looms larger with each passing day.
Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar’s infamous “Golden Triangle”, a notorious hub for drug trafficking, has further complicated the conflict. The state’s economy has long been plagued by rampant drug use, exacerbated by the easy availability of heroin, opium, and methamphetamine smuggled across the Myanmar border. Singh’s so-called “war on drugs” has done little to stem the tide, especially after it was revealed that his wife had connections with a drug lord. The hypocrisy of the political elite has only deepened the divide between the Meitei and Kuki communities.
If Modi continues down this reckless path, Manipur’s cries for freedom will only be the beginning. India’s fragmentation is no longer a distant threat; it is becoming an imminent reality as his regime drives the nation toward self-destruction. Modi’s obsession with political dominance is putting the integrity of India at risk, with more regions likely to follow Manipur’s lead in demanding separation.
Meitei civil society groups have not been innocent in this crisis either. They have painted the Kuki community as “narco-terrorists,” blaming them for the drug trade that continues to flourish across the state. On social media, these accusations have taken on a dangerous communal tone, with Kukis being portrayed as criminals and insurgents. The violence that followed these narratives has been nothing short of brutal, with sexual crimes and mob lynchings further worsening the human toll. On May 4th, two Kuki-Zomi women were paraded naked by a mob of Meitei men, with one of them being gang-raped, while her father and brother were beaten to death.
The level of security in Manipur is staggering; paramilitary forces, the army, and intelligence agencies maintain one of the largest presences in the country. Yet, this has done little to curb the violence or protect civilians. If anything, the presence of such a heavy-handed military apparatus has only increased the fear and mistrust that permeates Manipur today. The state’s hill areas, largely populated by Kukis, remain cut off from the prosperous Imphal Valley, where the Meitei enjoy dominance.
Modi’s policies represent a serious violation of human rights. His government’s failure to protect its citizens, breaches Article 21 of the Indian Constitution, which guarantees the right to life and personal liberty. The suppression of dissent through curfews and internet blackouts undermines Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which safeguards the right to freedom of expression. Additionally, these actions violate the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which India is a signatory, further illustrating how Modi’s approach is eroding the very framework of human rights that the nation is obliged to uphold.
From Kashmir to Assam, India’s diverse regions are witnessing the destructive consequences of Modi’s incompetence. His government’s inability to address ethnic and regional grievances has left India on the brink of collapse. Manipur, once ignored, has now become the epicentre of a much larger disintegration sparked by Modi’s divisive and exclusionary policies.
If Modi continues down this reckless path, Manipur’s cries for freedom will only be the beginning. India’s fragmentation is no longer a distant threat; it is becoming an imminent reality as his regime drives the nation toward self-destruction. Modi’s obsession with political dominance is putting the integrity of India at risk, with more regions likely to follow Manipur’s lead in demanding separation.
Indians must hold our government to account for aiding Israel’s murderous Gaza war
By: Ramachandra Guha | October 07, 2024
On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a brutal attack on the citizens of Israel. More than 1,100 people were killed, of which three-fourths were civilians. The Israeli state retaliated immediately, by bombarding the adjoining Palestinian territory of Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas. One might have thought, and hoped, that after a few days or at most a few weeks, the Israelis would cease the bombardment. However, this savage campaign of retribution has carried on for a full year now.
More than 50,000 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces, of which perhaps 90% have been civilians. The official death ratio of Palestinians to Israelis is thus roughly 50 to 1, though even this doesn’t remotely reflect the scale of the suffering. More than a million residents of Gaza have been displaced from their homes.
After the devastation it has wreaked in Gaza, Israel has now trained its fire on the country of Lebanon. Here too, it has not cared to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians. In its bid to eliminate particular individuals it has killed hundreds of Lebanese citizens and rendered many
The International Criminal Court has judged both the Israeli state and Hamas to be guilty of war crimes. This is utterly justified. For no amount of historical contextualisation can excuse or explain away the killings of civilians by Hamas last October. That said, the crimes of the Israeli state are indubitably greater. In its pursuit of revenge, it has acted indiscriminately, bombing and flattening schools and hospitals. Apart from killing tens of thousands of Palestinians, it has, by withholding or radically restricting the supply of food, water, and electricity, sent countless other people to the brink of starvation.
The coverage of the conflict in Gaza has looked largely at the two contending parties: the Israelis and Hamas. This column shifts the focus to the other groups or nations who have played a role in causing and perpetuating the conflict. In the case of many if not most crimes, the criminal has accomplices. Who, then, are the people who have aided Hamas on the one side and the Israeli state on the other?
The principal accomplices of Hamas are the theocratic state of Iran and the terror group based in Lebanon, Hezbollah. The dominant Western media regularly names and shames them. Yet they are rather more shy of identifying the accomplices of Israel, so perhaps we must do so instead. The principal enabler of the criminal acts of the Israeli government is, of course, the United States of America. It has provided a continuous stream of military aid to Israel, sending it the weapons it needs to continue pounding Gaza (and now Lebanon). America has also offered Israel diplomatic cover, by vetoing or voting against resolutions in the United Nations that might bring about a ceasefire and a pause to the suffering.
America’s refusal to recognise its own complicity was illustrated in an interview I heard last week of the former First Lady, former senator, former secretary of state, and sometime presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton. She was asked about her recent experience teaching at Columbia University, where she is now a visiting professor. Shortly after she began teaching last fall, a series of student protests roiled Columbia (and other campuses), demanding that Israel stop the bombing of Gaza and agree to an immediate ceasefire. Clinton dismissed these protests out of hand, on the grounds that they were supported and funded from “outside”. She further insinuated that some of these protesters were activated by “anti-Semitism”.
No evidence was provided in support of these accusations. In fact, though there were a few agent provocateurs from outside who came in uninvited, the overwhelming majority of the protesters were students and faculty members of these universities themselves, acting on their own behalf and with their own resources. Besides, many Jewish students joined these demonstrations, for, in the face of the wanton killing of women and children in Gaza, their commitment to humanity as a whole trumped their partisan commitment to the faith of their ancestors. (Unfortunately, the interviewer, Fareed Zakaria, was too timid to confront Clinton with the facts, and allowed her accusations to pass unchallenged).
Listening to Hillary Clinton, it struck me that, far away from New York, there was another agency funded and supported from “outside”. This was the Israeli state, kept going by the United States government. I wonder if Clinton, were she to hear her remarks played back to her, would have this capacity for self-reflection. I rather doubt it. Conditioned by the decades she has spent at the heart of the Washington establishment, she can never see herself or her government as ever being anything other than blameless.
Long before the current conflict, successive American presidents and American governments tacitly aided Israel in its violations of international law. The expansion of Jewish settlements all across the West Bank has occasionally led to mild rebukes from Washington, but never concrete action. Whether run by Democratic or Republican administrations, the most powerful nation in the world has been unable or unwilling to stop these encroachments on Palestinian lands by Jewish settlers supported by the Israeli Army. Over the decades, these settlements have accumulated to such an extent that they have made the creation of a viable Palestinian state a near-impossibility. The blame for this rests as much with America as with Israel itself.
The United States has been Israel’s principal accomplice in its criminal violations of international law. However, there are also other accomplices. These include the United Kingdom, France and Germany. And, truth be told, our own Republic of India has not been guiltless either.
As we grimly commemorate the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel, and we contemplate the ever-increasing death toll of innocent Palestinians at the hands of Israel, it behoves us to be somewhat more self-aware, and self-critical, than Americans like Hillary Clinton can ever be. We must hold to account our government for having aided the murderous Israel campaign in at least two ways, neither insubstantial. The first is by not supporting resolutions in the United Nations General Assembly calling for a ceasefire in Gaza and for Israel to comply with international law. The second is by sending Indian migrant workers to sustain the war economy of Israel, these workers actively canvassed for by state governments run by the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The uncritical support of the current Indian government for Israel stems from two reasons. One is personal – the decades-long friendship between Narendra Modi and Benjamin Netanyahu. The other is ideological – the admiration that Hindutva propagandists have for Israel’s fusion of State with faith and its suspicion/demonisation of the Muslim “other”.
By taking Israel’s side and, in effect, condoning the violence perpetrated by it, India has undermined its standing in the world. Last month, when the Middle East crisis was being debated in the United Nations General Assembly, all India could offer were some empty and insincere words about “peace”. On the other hand, the prime minister of Slovenia remarked: “I want to say this out loud and clear to the Israeli government: Stop the bloodshed, stop the suffering, bring the hostages home, and end the occupation. Mr Netanyahu, stop this war now.” And the foreign minister of Australia said: “It is now nearly 300 days since Australia and 152 other countries voted for a ceasefire. And today, I repeat that call.” She added: “Lebanon cannot become the next Gaza.”
Note that Slovenia and Australia are not just democracies, but have close ties with Israel’s chief patron, the United States. Yet their leaders have the clearsighted courage that both our prime minister and our foreign minister evidently lack.
Israel is said to be the only functioning democracy in the Middle East. The United States is the richest and most powerful democracy in the world. India boasts of being the world’s largest democracy. All these claims ring hollow in the light of what these countries have done to perpetuate the crimes against humanity in Gaza. As Pratap Bhanu Mehta succinctly puts it, “[h]ere are three democracies ushering the international order to ruin: Israel by its brutalisation of conflict, the United States by providing it cover and complicity, and India by its evasions that border on complicity.”
Managing energy demand
By: Waqas Bin Najib | October 05, 2024
The government has historically provided unreasonably cheap energy (electricity and gas) and did not enforce building standards, appliance standards, or other energy efficiency measures. Meanwhile, we recklessly expanded the transmission and distribution networks. Consumers adjusted to high availability and low-cost energy, and residential demand grew. Today, the challenge is transitioning from cheap, abundant energy to a scenario with expensive and limited supply.
I have argued that residential energy consumption in the country is unsustainable. Both electricity and natural gas are consumed wastefully and do not produce any economic output. I also say that the government needs to curtail the supply to residential and commercial consumers who contribute to peak demand — mainly middle- and high-income consumers.
Utilities are adopting this even in advanced markets like the US; for example, the electric utility company controls the air conditioners and electric vehicle home chargers in Texas and can turn the appliances off during peak load hours. A cruder version of a similar approach can be adopted in Pakistan to reduce peak demand and household energy costs.
Electricity and natural gas prices in Pakistan will increase in the coming years. The capacity payments for the new power generation projects will drive the electricity prices higher, while the increasing contribution of imported LNG will increase the gas prices. The inevitable rupee devaluation will also contribute to an increase in electricity and natural gas prices.
The energy situation in Pakistan is driving the economy down.
The impact of high pricing will be disproportionately more significant for low-income consumers in the country. Lower-income households will need government support to adapt to the changing energy landscape. According to the last Household Integrated Economic Survey in 2019, households spent seven per cent of their average income on energy — mainly electricity and gas. Lower- and middle-income households spent 8.5pc of their income on energy. Since that survey, increasing prices and stagnant income levels are expected to have increased energy expenditures by up to 10pc of household income.
Energy expenditures are around 5pc of household income in most developed and developing countries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reports 2022 figures for the contribution of energy to average household expenditures: 5.5pc in Mexico, 5pc in Indonesia, 4.8pc in the UK, and around 3pc in the US and Canada. The high expenditure on energy by households in Pakistan should be seen in the context of energy poverty: our per capita energy consumption of only 3,895 kWh/capita/year is among the lowest in the world — one-tenth of Iran, the EU, or China, and almost half that of India.
The energy situation in Pakistan is driving the economy down and contributing to the prevalence of poverty.
Where do we go from here? The government must try to curtail demand to reduce new-generation requirements and other necessary sector reforms. Meanwhile, consumers must adapt to the new energy situation. Energy efficiency and demand-side management are the cheapest ways to reduce energy costs.
Households have a few options for managing their demand. These include solar home systems, energy-efficient appliances, intelligent energy management systems, and low-energy buildings. Appliance replacements and building envelope improvements (such as building insulation solutions) will be demand-driven rather than regulation-driven. The government should introduce the labelling of appliance energy-efficiency ratings and work towards increasing consumer awareness of energy efficiency improvements.
Solar home systems remain the best option to reduce energy costs. Consumers should consider solar PV systems for electricity generation and solar water heaters to reduce gas consumption. Solar water heaters can act as pre-heaters for conventional water heaters, while solar PV systems will supplement the grid electricity.
The current net-metering policy for grid-connected solar systems only applies to three-phase consumers, around 10pc of residential consumers. The remaining 90pc are single-phase consumers. Most single-phase consumers belong to middle- and low-income groups. A grid-interconnection policy for single-phase consumers is essential to enable them to install solar home systems.
The grid-interconnection scheme enables the consumers to inject the excess electricity produced by the solar system into the grid and adjust equivalent units against consumption. Under the current policy, the exported and imported units are netted off, and consumers are expected to be paid the off-peak tariff rate if they have unconsumed excess units.
The current policy needs to be revised to reflect the costs of using the grid as temporary storage. The policy must be changed for all the existing and new consumers. Grid interconnection for solar home systems should shift to gross metering (K-Electric in Karachi already uses gross metering), and the buy-back rate should be around four US cents (Rs12) — roughly the last solar tariff awarded by Nepra. The price should be based on the alternate option for the grid to procure solar power and correctly reflect the costs of using the grid as storage. Even with a lower buy-back price for solar home systems, installing solar electricity systems will still be an attractive investment for households.
However, solar does not reduce the conventional power demand requirement. Pakistan has a peculiar power demand curve. Since residential and commercial consumers drive the demand, the peak load on the grid is after sunset when the consumers turn on their air conditioning in the evening.
For example, in Karachi, the peak demand in the system is at 11 pm. This means that solar power does not help meet the peak demand, and the grid will still require other power generation capacity to meet the peak demand. Solar home systems will only help reduce costs for consumers.
Many upper-income households can afford solar installation, device replacements, and building improvements. Middle- and low-income families will find it challenging to make demand-side adjustments. Instead of investing in new power generation plants, policymakers should consider demand-side management measures and support low-income households.
Subsidising energy for all households is expensive and ineffective. Providing direct support to low-income households to adapt to future energy scenarios will be far more efficient.
The case for nuclear energy
By: Ali Sarwar Naqvi | October 05, 2024
Electricity is an essential component of socio-economic development for any society. Every aspect of human advancement requires easy access to an economical source of electricity.
Electricity can be generated through various fuels and technologies, each with its own pros and cons. However, electricity cannot be economically stored, and the demand-supply balance must be maintained in real time. As a result, expanding the electricity supply system is always subject to a range of considerations. It is widely accepted that relying on a single fuel or technology to meet all the electricity needs of a sizable country like Pakistan is not advisable.
Pakistan has several options to meet its growing electricity demand, including coal, gas, oil, nuclear, and VRE (variable renewable energy, such as wind and solar). Selecting the right combination of these options is essential for an optimal supply mix. However, forming this mix requires policies that are crafted with a long-term vision and an assessment of future needs. The electricity generation industry is investment-intensive and requires substantial lead time for full expansion. Therefore, considerations such as economics, environmental impact, supply security, system operation constraints, economic impact, and the country's financial situation must all be factored into the capacity expansion strategy.
Indigenous fossil fuels are typically prioritized if they are reasonably available, to capitalize on long-term benefits. However, burning fossil fuels for electricity generation is inherently linked with greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to climate change. Since climate change is a global issue, efforts are being made to reduce fossil fuel use. These efforts include multilateral treaties and policy instruments aimed at minimizing fossil fuel consumption. For example, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have decided not to finance any new fossil fuel exploration or power generation projects.
Hydropower plants with reservoirs are a favored option among electricity generation technologies due to their energy storage capability and socio-economic benefits. However, their potential is limited by natural factors, such as the site's geological structure, location, water inflow availability, and public acceptance. Pakistan is fortunate to have substantial hydropower potential in the north, a reasonable share of which has already been exploited. It is worth noting that. while receding northern glaciers may increase inflow, the IPCC has predicted that water flow may begin to decrease in the latter half of the century.
Run-of-river (ROR) hydropower plants are also an economical and socially accepted option for power generation. In Pakistan, however, electricity generation from ROR plants is seasonal and available at full capacity only during periods of high water inflow in the Indus River System.
Over the past decade, VRE sources, particularly wind and solar, have entered Pakistan’s power market. While onshore wind has limited potential, there is substantial potential for solar power generation. However, VRE sources are intermittent and unreliable, which requires nearly equivalent backup capacity and technologies with high ramp rates to manage fluctuations in supply. As a result, the overall cost of the system rises as the share of VRE increases due to the need for standby capacity.
Nuclear technology represents one of the highest levels of engineering precision achieved by humanity. The rigorous safety standards associated with nuclear energy make it capital-intensive and challenging to implement. Nuclear technology has been in commercial operation for over seventy years and remains a prime choice in many developed countries, thanks to its high capacity factor. However, this technology requires significant efforts in human resource and knowledge development, which only a limited number of countries have successfully achieved. The importance of nuclear energy has recently grown due to concerns about climate change, and during COP28, it was formally included as a solution for addressing global climate change issues.
In recent years, several developing countries have initiated nuclear energy programs. Bangladesh and Egypt are constructing their first nuclear power plants (NPPs), while countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Uzbekistan are in the process of developing the necessary infrastructure.
In Pakistan, nuclear-generated electricity was first produced in 1972, when the 137MW Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP) began supplying power to K-Electric. This achievement made Pakistan the 15th country in the world to establish an NPP. The plant, initially designed for a 30-year lifespan, successfully operated for 50 years before being permanently shut down for decommissioning in August 2021.
Currently, six nuclear power plants (NPPs) with a total gross capacity of 3,530MW operate in Pakistan, with four located in Chashma and two in Karachi. The operating cycle of NPPs at the Chashma site is 14 months, while that of the Karachi site is 18 months, meaning that once fueled, these plants can operate continuously for these periods without requiring additional fuel. This feature makes NPPs a reliable, secure, and stable electricity generation option among thermal power generation technologies.
According to Nepra’s statistics for July 2024, the average fuel cost of Pakistan’s operating NPPs is Rs1.5 per unit. This cost is significantly lower compared to RLNG (Rs26.3 per unit), imported coal (Rs15.5 per unit), local gas (Rs13.9 per unit), and local coal (Rs11.0 per unit). The fuel cost of NPPs is also highly stable, unlike the erratic and sometimes chaotic prices of fossil fuels. Over the past ten years in Pakistan, the average nuclear fuel price has increased from about Rs1.1 to Rs. 1.5 per unit, mainly due to the devaluation of the Pakistani currency.
The low fuel cost of nuclear energy also ranks high on the Merit Order prepared by NTDC for economical electricity generation. Consequently, maximizing the use of NPPs is preferred by operators to keep overall system fuel costs low. Nuclear power contributed around 18 per cent of the total electricity generation in fiscal year 2023-24, with a share of 25.8 per cent in March.
Pakistan's recent slow economic growth has reduced electricity demand, further impacted by the rise of rooftop solar systems. Meanwhile, a significant portion of electricity generation capacity based on imported fossil fuels was added to the system, causing a sharp increase in electricity tariffs.
In this context, some commentators have attempted to label nuclear energy as an expensive option by focusing solely on capacity charges, overlooking the high capacity factor and the low fuel cost of nuclear generation. In reality, the current average tariff for NPPs in Pakistan is only Rs14.8 per unit, which will drop to single digits after debt repayment on the most recent NPPs. The debt period for each NPP is 12 years, while the lifespan of these plants may extend beyond 80 years.
Nuclear power also plays a crucial role in conserving foreign exchange reserves. Despite having more than sufficient installed capacity, Pakistan's power system faces energy (fuel) shortages due to rising energy prices and a lack of foreign exchange reserves. This shortage negatively impacts the country's economy and social life. In this context, Pakistan’s NPPs are essential, as they not only help conserve foreign exchange reserves but also support the country's power system during crises.
Imagining a scenario without NPPs for FY2023-24, the system operator would likely have to rely on imported fossil fuels such as coal, RLNG, and furnace oil. Based on Nepra's reported monthly prices, the additional financial burden on Pakistan’s power system would be around $1.1 billion to $2.3 billion in foreign exchange. Generating the equivalent amount of nuclear electricity with imported coal would require an additional $1.1 billion, with costs rising to $1.6 billion for RLNG and $2.3 billion for furnace oil.
These facts clearly demonstrate that nuclear energy is vital to maintaining low and stable electricity generation costs in Pakistan. The minimal and stable fuel cost of nuclear energy contributes to an affordable, secure, and reliable electricity supply. Therefore, a practical share of nuclear power is essential for a sustainable energy supply system in Pakistan. While other power sources will continue to contribute to the energy mix, nuclear-generated electricity provides the stability needed for Pakistan's power equation.
Anti-India sentiment among Bangladeshi youth
By: M A Hossain | October 05, 2024
Over the past decade, there has been a noticeable shift in the political and social mindset of Bangladesh’s youth. What was once a close and collaborative relationship between Bangladesh and India has gradually evolved into one marked by skepticism, dissatisfaction, and, at times, outright hostility. Anti-India sentiment has surged among younger generations, fueled by several factors, including historical grievances, contemporary politics, and the growing influence of religious and nationalistic ideologies.
India played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. Its support, both militarily and diplomatically, was instrumental in the success of the Liberation War, which ended with the formation of an independent Bangladesh. In the years immediately following independence, the relationship between the two countries was generally positive. Shared cultural ties, linguistic affinities, and common geopolitical interests helped solidify this partnership.
However, over time, this relationship has been marked by periods of strain. Issues such as water-sharing disputes, trade imbalances, border security concerns, and accusations of India’s meddling in Bangladesh’s domestic politics have fostered a sense of unease. Many in Bangladesh feel that while their country benefited greatly from Indian support during its liberation, India has not always been a fair and equal partner in subsequent years. This sentiment has, in particular, grown stronger among the younger generation, which did not witness the Liberation War and is more influenced by current political realities than by the historical ties between the two nations.
For the last 15 years, the Awami League government, under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, has positioned India as a (so-called) reliable ally. The party’s official stance has often praised India as a good neighbour, emphasizing economic cooperation, security collaboration, and regional stability. India has played a key role in supporting Hasina’s administration, both diplomatically and politically, especially in its efforts to suppress dissidents and maintain stability for her government.
Despite this narrative, there has been growing discontent within Bangladesh regarding the nature of the India-Bangladesh relationship. Many Bangladeshis, especially the youth, believe that the benefits of this alliance have disproportionately favoured India. Trade deficits, unresolved water disputes like the Teesta River issue, routine border killings by the Indian security force, transit facilities, and a perception that India interferes in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs, have fueled this disillusionment.
For instance, the construction of dams and barrages on rivers shared between India and Bangladesh has had devastating impacts on the agricultural economy and ecology of Bangladesh. Many youths feel that the Awami League government has failed to protect Bangladesh’s national interests in these negotiations, leading to a growing perception that the ruling party is overly reliant on and subservient to India.
Moreover, events like the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in India have further fueled these sentiments. Furthermore, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s leaders are always spreading hate rhetoric against Bangladeshi Muslims. Many young Bangladeshis view these actions as part of a broader agenda of marginalizing Muslims in the Indian subcontinent, and this has resonated deeply within Bangladesh’s Islamic landscape.
Furthermore, the perception that India has played a role in propping up the Awami League government through its influence over elections and internal politics has alienated many young Bangladeshis. This sentiment has been exacerbated by India’s close relationship with the West and its growing stature as a regional hegemon, which contrasts sharply with Bangladesh’s more modest global standing.
While historical animosities between Bangladesh and Pakistan run deep due to the atrocities of the 1971 Liberation War, a curious shift has occurred in recent years. Pakistan, once viewed with hostility, especially by the pre-71 generation, has seen a resurgence in its appeal among the post-71 Bangladeshi youth.
This newfound affinity for Pakistan can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Pakistan’s growing engagement with the Muslim world, particularly in terms of its diplomatic and military relations with major Islamic countries, resonates with Bangladesh’s increasingly religious youth. Secondly, Pakistan’s resistance to Indian influence on the global stage is viewed positively by those in Bangladesh who perceive India as an overbearing neighbour.
The influence of social media cannot be overlooked either. The Pakistani media and its entertainment industry have also found a following among young Bangladeshis, creating a subtle yet significant shift in perceptions. Many youths, disillusioned with what they perceive as Bangladesh’s unequal relationship with India, see Pakistan as a counterweight to India’s influence in the region.
The rise of Islamic forces in Bangladesh is another key factor contributing to the growing anti-India sentiment. In recent years, Bangladesh has witnessed a significant increase in the influence of Islamist political parties and religious groups. These groups, often critical of India’s treatment of its Muslim population, particularly in Kashmir and the northeastern states, have positioned themselves as defenders of Muslim identity both at home and abroad.
Islamist political groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolon Bangladesh, etc and Islamic Movement groups like Hefazat Islam, Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis,etc have historically opposed close relations with India, viewing it as a Hindu-majority nation that undermines Muslim interests. As these groups gain more traction among the youth, their anti-India rhetoric has found a receptive audience. In particular, the rise of conservative Islam in Bangladesh has deepened the divide between the secular and religious factions of society, with the latter increasingly adopting a more critical stance toward India.
Moreover, events like the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in India have further fueled these sentiments. Furthermore, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s leaders are always spreading hate rhetoric against Bangladeshi Muslims. Many young Bangladeshis view these actions as part of a broader agenda of marginalizing Muslims in the Indian subcontinent, and this has resonated deeply within Bangladesh’s Islamic landscape.
The growing anti-India sentiment among Bangladeshi youths represents a significant turning point in the country’s political and social landscape. As historical ties with India weaken and disillusionment with the current government’s policies deepen, many youths are turning to alternative ideologies, including Islamic nationalism and even a renewed interest in Pakistan.
This shift has profound implications not only for Bangladesh but for the entire South Asian region. India must recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh, recognizing that a generation disillusioned with its policies could lead to a weakening of diplomatic ties and the emergence of a more adversarial relationship in the future.
Staged Elections
By: Javed Iqbal | October 05, 2024
To hoodwink the world community into believing in its false narrative of normalization, the Modi led regime recently staged a drama of elections in IIOJ&K. In an environment of fear and chaos created through heavy militarization, how can democratic processes take place? To manage results of the elections, the BJP government carried out measures like demographic changes and gerrymandering, leading to the marginalization of Kashmiris and favoring Hindus in IIOJK.
Majority of Kashmiris perceived these elections as a military exercise rather than an electoral process. Kashmiris, sensing that the outcome of elections would neither reflect their aspirations nor address their genuine issues, preferred boycott. The voter turnout in the second phase of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections has significantly decreased as compared to the 2014 elections, falling from 52.14 percent to 22.33 percent in the 2024 election. Out of the 26 assembly segments that went to polls, 20 registered a lower turnout than in 2014.
The overall turnout for the second phase stood at 56.05 percent, lower than the 60 percent recorded in 2014 across the six districts involved. Budgam saw a drop from 66.32 percent in 2014 to 51.13 percent in 2024 while Chrar-e-Sharief witnessed a 15 percent decrease, from 82.44 percent to 67.44 percent. Budhal had a similar decline, from 82.50 percent to 68.58 percent. Habbakadal’s turnout also plummeted to 18.39 percent. The lowest voter turnout is recorded in Srinagar, from 52.14 percent in 2014 to 22.33 percent in the recent elections.
The Kashmiris’ decision to boycott elections is the recognition of the fact that all powers are already centralized with the Lieutenant Governor.
The low voter turnout indicates that Kashmiri people have largely rejected the Indian government’s claim of normalcy and acceptance of their policies. This decline in election participation also reflects ongoing dissatisfaction and resistance to the political changes imposed in Jammu and Kashmir post 2019. The Kashmiris’ decision to boycott elections is the recognition of the fact that all powers are already centralized with the Lieutenant Governor, leaving them with little influence.
Majority of the residents expressed frustration with the central administration’s management of Jammu and Kashmir post-revocation of special status. It is high time that the global community supported the cause of Kashmiri people, enabled Kashmiris to challenge Indian forces’ oppressive measures and advocated their right to self-determination. Farcical elections in IIOJK is a blatant attempt to legitimize India’s illegal occupation and suppress the Kashmiri people’s right to self-determination. The world must recognize the farce of these elections and hold India accountable for its human rights abuses and committing war crimes in the valley. The Jammu and Kashmir issue is an internationally recognized dispute that must be resolved in accordance with the United Nation Security Council resolutions and the wishes of the Kashmiri people.
The Vicious Nexus
By: Omay Aimen | October 05, 2024
An incident that began as a minor dispute on July 7th, 2024 turned into a tragedy that would have ramifications throughout Pakistan’s socio-political landscape. The stabbing of Gilaman Wazir, a respected figure in the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), by a Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) supporter, Azad Dawar, resulted in Gilaman’s death on 11th July, setting off a series of events that further polarized the situation. In the following days, the PTM, led by Manzoor Pashteen, seized upon this tragedy to push its agenda, culminating in the announcement of a grand gathering termed the “Pushtun Qaumi Adalat” (PQA), scheduled for 11th October 2024. The real tragedy is not just the senseless loss of life, but also the manipulation of this incident to advance an agenda that seeks discord rather than peace.
The death of Gilaman Wazir may seem like a tragic yet isolated incident. Pakistan’s tribal areas have been afflicted with a complex web of personal, tribal, and political tensions for a long time, highlighting the larger implications.
Despite efforts to integrate these regions through initiatives like the FATA-KP merger and development projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), the deep-rooted inter-tribal rivalries and occasional violent clashes continue to fester. The incident between Gilaman and Azad, which occurred during a cricket match, shows how personal conflicts can quickly turn deadly in this volatile environment. However, the PTM’s decision to exploit this tragedy, by falsely linking Azad to Pakistan’s intelligence agencies, reflects a deliberate strategy to divert attention from the real issues plaguing the Pashtun people.
Pakistan faces a dual threat from terrorism and ethno-political movements.
In the days following Gilaman’s funeral, which was attended by more than 40,000 people, the PTM leadership, particularly Manzoor Pashteen, began using the death as a rallying cry to stoke the flames of division. Instead of addressing the systemic challenges facing the Pashtun people, such as marginalization, lack of education and economic opportunity, the PTM has consistently focused on stoking hatred against Pakistan’s security forces. Instead of promoting justice and reconciliation, the Pushtun Qaumi Adalat announcement seems to be yet another way for the PTM to advance its own agenda.
Their consistent targeting of the military and law enforcement agencies, often through rhetoric that echoes the sentiments of terrorist organizations like Fitna Al Khwarij (FAK), suggests a troubling nexus between these groups. The PTM’s refusal to condemn FAK’s violent attacks, coupled with their vocal criticism of the military’s counter-terrorism operations, raises serious concerns about their true intentions. Presenting themselves as champions of Pashtun rights, PTM leaders such as Manzoor Pashteen and Mohsin Dawar have turned local grievances into political currency, while touting the sacrifices of Pakistan’s security forces to bring peace to the tribal areas.
The PTM’s underlying motives are further revealed by the use of symbolic gestures like draping Gilaman Wazir’s coffin with an Afghan Flag. In a region where the Afghan Taliban has banned the display of the Afghan flag, PTM’s decision to use the symbol is a blatant violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. The involvement of external actors, particularly India’s intelligence agency RAW, in supporting both PTM and FAK adds another layer of complexity to this already volatile situation.
The comparison between PTM and FAK, though uncomfortable, is essential to understanding the larger strategy at play. While the FAK uses direct violence such as terrorist attacks and suicide bombings to destabilize Pakistan, the PTM uses a subtler approach, using political and social influence to undermine state institutions.
The dual strategy employed by these groups represents a concerted effort to weaken Pakistan from within. This collaboration is evident in events such as the Bannu Attack in July 2024, where PTM protests following FAK Attack, suggesting a symbiotic relationship between the two groups. Capitalizing on the unrest caused by FAK violence, the PTM is positioning itself as the voice of the oppressed, while pushing the same agenda of destabilization.
The series of violence and protests from the Khar Qamar incident in 2019 to the Bannu unrest in 2024 shows a clear pattern. The FAK attacked, law enforcement responded, and the PTM seized the opportunity to protest, accusing the military for human rights abuses. This concerted effort not only diverts attention from the real problem of terrorism but also undermines Pakistan’s counter-terrorism efforts.
The lack of condemnation from the PTM leaders despite the increase in terrorist incidents speaks volumes about their priorities and intent. Instead of standing with the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, who are victims of terrorism, the PTM leadership has chosen to capitalize on their suffering for political gain, all to promote a narrative which serves the interests of external actors like RAW.
Pakistan faces a dual threat from terrorism and ethno-political movements, such as the PTM, which exploit local grievances to advance a broader agenda. PTM’s alliance with FAK, which is supported by questionable NGOs and foreign agencies, threatens national security. To combat this, policy makers must not only eliminate terrorism but also expose the tactics of groups like the PTM. Addressing the root causes of tribal discontent and strengthening local institutions are key to breaking the cycle of violence and unrest in these regions.
Is democracy a mirage in Kashmir?
By: Rakhshanda Mehtab| October 05, 2024
The election phase of the state assembly elections in Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJ&K) has been completed on 1st October. However, this event is shrouded in controversy and skepticism. These elections happened five years after the BJP government took direct control of the region by suspending the state legislature. This move has raised questions on the fairness and true purpose of these elections.
The total population of Jammu & Kashmir is approximately 15 million, but there are significant disparities in the region. The Kashmir Valley with the population of 8.9 Million, is predominantly Muslims, while Jammu, with 6.1 Million residents has a Hindu majority.
The recent electoral process, involving 8.8 million voters, is seen by many as a “sham” and a cosmetic exercise, designed to create a false sense of normalcy and legitimacy in the region.
In recent years, there have been significant demographic changes in Jammu. The government has issued 3.2 million domicile certificates to non-residents, which was a delibrate attempt to reduce the Muslim majority in the Kashmir Valley.
The BJP has also brought forward several proxy parties to divide the Muslim vote.
Moreover, the state assembly seats have been unfairly increased, with Jammu gaining six new seats while the Kashmir Valley only got one. This political map change favors the Hindu-majority areas. Critics argued that this gerrymandering, which involved redrawing of 22 constituencies, has undermined the democratic process and skewed the political balance in the region.
The allocation of five seats to the Lt Governor for nomination, including three for migrants and two for Pandits, increased chances of manipulative space for BJP. This, coupled with the fact that 81.25 percent of Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) seats are in Jammu, enhances the potential for managing a majority in the elections.
The elections in Jammu & Kashmir were conducted in a heavily militarized environment, with around one million security forces deployed, making the process resemble a military exercise rather than a democratic one.
Moreover, the extensive administrative powers given to the Lt Governor, including control over police, public order, and all India service transfers and postings, significantly limit the powers of the newly elected Chief Minister. Adding to this, the fact that the last census was conducted in 2011 and no fresh census has been carried out in over 13 years further exposes the myth of stability in IIOJK.
The BJP has also brought forward several proxy parties to divide the Muslim vote. Out of 908 candidates contesting the elections, over 40 percent were independents, many of whom are believed to be backed by the BJP and security forces to split the Muslim vote. This manipulation of the electoral process raises serious concerns about the fairness of the elections.
Indian authorities have always used tactics such as arbitrary arrests, prolonged detentions, and pressure to coerce All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leaders into abandoning their stance or diluting their demands. The APHC is banned, and approximately 48 leaders are in illegal custody, imprisoned under stringent laws like the Public Safety Act (PSA) and the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA), which allow for detention without trial. This lack of level playing field further questions the legitimacy of the elections.
While Modi urged the Kashmiris to vote for “Strengthening the Festival of Democarcy”, the tactics employed by the BJP government itself fly in the face of the principles of democracy. The international community must recognize the need for a UN-supervised plebiscite to truly resolve the Kashmir issue in accordance with the wishes of its people. Until then, any electoral exercise in the region will remain under a cloud of doubt and skepticism.
SCO trade ministers moot
By: Muhammad Zahid Rifat | October 05, 2024
SHANGHAI Cooperation Organization is an important, active representative regional body. The SCO is a Eurasian political, economic, international security and defence organization which was established by China and Russia in 2001. It is the world’s largest regional organization in terms of geographic scope and population-wise, covering approximately as much as 80 per cent of the area of Eurasia and 40 per cent of the population. As of 2023, its combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was around 32 percent of the world’s total.
The SCO is the successor to the Shanghai Five which was formed in 1996 between the Peoples’ Republic of China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan. In June 2001, the leaders of these countries and Uzbekistan met in Shanghai to announced a new organization with deeper political and economic cooperation. In June 2017, It was expanded to eight states, with India and Pakistan. Iran joined the group \in July 2023 followed by Belarus one year later in 2024. A number of countries are engaged as observer or dialogue partners. The SCO is governed by the Heads of State Council which is its supreme decision-making body and meets once a year.
Without going into further details, it may be mentioned here that Pakistan is going to host SCO Summit on 15 and 16 October 2024 for which brisk preparations were being made by all official quarters concerned in Islamabad. Prior to the SCO Summit next month, two related meetings have also been held. 47th meeting of the Commission of senior officials of SCO member States and 23rd meeting of the SCO member states ministers responsible for foreign, economic and trade activities. Both these meetings were held in Islamabad.Pakistan hosted the 23rd meeting of the SCO member states ministers responsible for foreign, economic and trade activities in its capacity as the Chair of the SCO Council of Heads of Governments, the second highest forum of the organization. Welcoming the delegates from PSCO member states on the occasion, Commerce Minister Jam Kamal Khan availed the opportunity to reiterate yet another time Pakistan’s firm commitment to the laudable aims and objectives of the SCO for promoting peace and prosperity in the region. While acknowledging the global economic challenges facing the region, he emphasized the vital role which SCO can play in addressing these issues through cooperation and constructive mutual engagement.
The gathering was emphatically conveyed Pakistan’s strong commitment and willingness to contribute to and collaborate with all SCO member states to achieve the shared goals. He urged the gathering to seize the opportunity and forge stronger partnerships, enhancing regional cooperation and paving the way for a brighter and more prosperous future for all the peoples of the region. The SCO Ministers in their national statements on the occasion deliberated in detail and shared their views on the prospects and measures to further deepen the economic and trade cooperation among the SCO countries. After due deliberations, the SCO member States decided to establish a Database for Economic Preferences for the SCO which will act as a comprehensive resource for the member states to access the information on economic incentivand preferences within the bloc fostering a more cohesive business environment.
Availing the opportunity of presence of SCO Ministers in Islamabad, the Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) hosted a two days “Business and Investment Conference.” on the sidelines of the SCO ministerial moot. During the deliberations, speakers highlighted the immense potential which existed among the SCO countries for initiating and launching joint ventures in multiple sectors for their mutual benefits. It is quite appreciable and worth highlighting here that Pakistan is not only attending and participating in the international conferences and moots around the world but also hosting important gatherings from time to time such as the upcoming SCO Summit.Such interactions with friendly countries’ top leadership and ministers go a long way in promoting, strengthening relations with friendly countries and go a long way in increasing the cooperation in different sectors for mutual benefits. All eyes as such are now at PSO Summit to be held in the Convention Centre in Islamabad on 15 and 16 October 2024 which will be participated by number of top leaders from PSO member countries.
Promoting Moscow-Islamabad Relations
By: Muhammad Zahid Raffat | October 01, 2024
Pakistan has consistently pursued a foreign policy of friendship and goodwill towards all nations, without harbouring aggressive intentions, as envisioned by Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah. Both civil and military leadership frequently visit friendly countries worldwide to engage with top leaders and enhance mutually beneficial bilateral cooperation across various sectors. Similarly, Pakistan warmly welcomes foreign leaders, taking measures to strengthen existing ties.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk’s recent two-day goodwill visit to Pakistan was aimed at holding discussions with senior civil and military leaders, exchanging views on further enhancing bilateral relations, and exploring untapped sectors for cooperation.
After a warm welcome from Deputy Prime Minister Senator Muhammad Ishaq Dar, the visiting Russian Deputy PM, accompanied by a delegation, embarked on a hectic schedule in the federal capital. This demonstrated Russia’s keenness to improve existing bilateral relations and boost trade with Pakistan. Overchuk was in Islamabad to explore opportunities for cooperation across multiple sectors.
During delegation-level talks led by the two DPMs, Overchuk expressed Russia’s support for Pakistan’s inclusion in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), reflecting Moscow’s willingness to strengthen ties. Earlier discussions between the two leaders focused on expanding economic relations between Pakistan and Russia. Pakistan emphasised its view of Russia as a key player in West, South, and Central Asia, with strengthening mutually beneficial relations as a priority in its foreign policy.
Overchuk, for his part, discussed the prospects of collaboration between Pakistan and the Eurasian Economic Union, which includes Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The two sides explored the potential for a free trade agreement, with indications of further discussions to finalise the deal.
Following these talks, Pakistan and Russia agreed to enhance dialogue and cooperation in various sectors, including trade, industry, energy, connectivity, science and technology, and education. Overchuk also met President Asif Ali Zardari to exchange views on bilateral relations, expressing Russia’s interest in collaborating on food security and educational initiatives. A 75-member Pakistani business delegation is scheduled to visit Russia in October to explore further economic cooperation.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during his meeting with Overchuk, reiterated that strengthening ties with Russia is a priority for Pakistan’s foreign policy. He emphasised the country’s eagerness to expand trade, economic, energy, connectivity, and security cooperation with Russia. Reports indicate that the PM expressed his anticipation of welcoming Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to Islamabad next month for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit and conveyed his gratitude to President Vladimir Putin for sending a high-level delegation.
PM Shehbaz Sharif later witnessed the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the two countries, focusing on cooperation in agriculture, education, railways, science and technology, food security, and promoting stronger people-to-people connections.
The Russian delegation also met with Army Chief General Asim Munir, discussing the expansion of security and defence cooperation. Both sides expressed satisfaction with the ongoing collaboration in these areas.
Overall, the visit of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk and his delegation bodes well for promoting and strengthening bilateral relations. Such high-level exchanges contribute significantly to enhancing ties between the two friendly nations. Follow-up actions on MoUs and agreements are crucial to ensuring their successful implementation and fostering long-term cooperation.
Anti-India Sentiment Rising in Bangladesh
By: M A Hossain | October 01, 2024
Over the past decade, there has been a noticeable shift in the political and social mindset of Bangladesh’s youth. What was once a close and collaborative relationship between Bangladesh and India has gradually evolved into one marked by skepticism, dissatisfaction, and, at times, outright hostility. Anti-India sentiment has surged among younger generations, fueled by several factors, including historical grievances, contemporary politics, and the growing influence of religious and nationalistic ideologies.
India played a crucial role in Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan in 1971. Its support, both militarily and diplomatically, was instrumental in the success of the Liberation War, which ended with the formation of an independent Bangladesh. In the years immediately following independence, the relationship between the two countries was generally positive. Shared cultural ties, linguistic affinities, and common geopolitical interests helped solidify this partnership.
However, over time, this relationship has been marked by periods of strain. Issues such as water-sharing disputes, trade imbalances, border security concerns, and accusations of India’s meddling in Bangladesh’s domestic politics have fostered a sense of unease. Many in Bangladesh feel that while their country benefited greatly from Indian support during its liberation, India has not always been a fair and equal partner in subsequent years. This sentiment has, in particular, grown stronger among the younger generation, who did not witness the Liberation War and are more influenced by current political realities than by the historical ties between the two nations.
For the last 15 years, the Awami League government, under the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, has positioned India as a (so-called) reliable ally. The party’s official stance has often praised India as a good neighbor, emphasizing economic cooperation, security collaboration, and regional stability. India has played a key role in supporting Hasina’s administration, both diplomatically and politically, especially in its efforts to suppress dissidents and maintain stability for her government.
Despite this narrative, there has been growing discontent within Bangladesh regarding the nature of the India-Bangladesh relationship. Many Bangladeshis, especially the youth, believe that the benefits of this alliance have disproportionately favored India. Trade deficits, unresolved water disputes like the Teesta River issue, routine border killings by the Indian security force, transit facilities, and a perception that India interferes in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs have fueled this disillusionment.
For instance, the construction of dams and barrages on rivers shared between India and Bangladesh has had devastating impacts on the agricultural economy and ecology of Bangladesh. Many youths feel that the Awami League government has failed to protect Bangladesh’s national interests in these negotiations, leading to a growing perception that the ruling party is overly reliant on and subservient to India.
Furthermore, the perception that India has played a role in propping up the Awami League government through its influence over elections and internal politics has alienated many young Bangladeshis. This sentiment has been exacerbated by India’s close relationship with the West and its growing stature as a regional hegemon, which contrasts sharply with Bangladesh’s more modest global standing.
While historical animosities between Bangladesh and Pakistan run deep due to the atrocities of the 1971 Liberation War, a curious shift has occurred in recent years. Pakistan, once viewed with hostility, especially by the pre-71 generation, has seen a resurgence in its appeal among the post-71 Bangladeshi youth. This newfound affinity for Pakistan can be attributed to several factors. Firstly, Pakistan’s growing engagement with the Muslim world, particularly in terms of its diplomatic and military relations with major Islamic countries, resonates with Bangladesh’s increasingly religious youth. Secondly, Pakistan’s resistance to Indian influence on the global stage is viewed positively by those in Bangladesh who perceive India as an overbearing neighbor.
The influence of social media cannot be overlooked either. The Pakistani media and its entertainment industry have also found a following among young Bangladeshis, creating a subtle yet significant shift in perceptions. Many youths, disillusioned with what they perceive as Bangladesh’s unequal relationship with India, see Pakistan as a counterweight to India’s influence in the region. The rise of Islamic forces in Bangladesh is another key factor contributing to the growing anti-India sentiment. In recent years, Bangladesh has witnessed a significant increase in the influence of Islamist political parties and religious groups. These groups, often critical of India’s treatment of its Muslim population, particularly in Kashmir and the northeastern states, have positioned themselves as defenders of Muslim identity both at home and abroad. Islamist political groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Islami Andolon Bangladesh, etc and Islamic Movement groups like Hefazat Islam, Bangladesh Khilafat Majlis,etc have historically opposed close relations with India, viewing it as a Hindu-majority nation that undermines Muslim interests. As these groups gain more traction among the youth, their anti-India rhetoric has found a receptive audience. In particular, the rise of conservative Islam in Bangladesh has deepened the divide between the secular and religious factions of society, with the latter increasingly adopting a more critical stance toward India.
Moreover, events like the abrogation of Article 370 in Kashmir, the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), and the National Register of Citizens (NRC) in India have further fueled these sentiments. Furthermore, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s leaders are always spreading hate rhetoric against Bangladeshi Muslims. Many young Bangladeshis view these actions as part of a broader agenda of marginalizing Muslims in the Indian subcontinent, and this has resonated deeply within Bangladesh’s Islamic landscape.
The growing anti-India sentiment among Bangladeshi youths represents a significant turning point in the country’s political and social landscape. As historical ties with India weaken and disillusionment with the current government’s policies deepen, many youths are turning to alternative ideologies, including Islamic nationalism and even a renewed interest in Pakistan.
This shift has profound implications not only for Bangladesh but for the entire South Asian region. India must recalibrate its approach to Bangladesh, recognizing that a generation disillusioned with its policies could lead to a weakening of diplomatic ties and the emergence of a more adversarial relationship in the future.
Lessons from a timeless friendship
By: Ahsan Iqbal | October 01, 2024
As we celebrate China’s National Day today, it is a moment to reflect on the time-tested and steadfast friendship between Pakistan and China. For over seven decades, our nations have enjoyed a unique bond rooted in mutual trust, goodwill, and a shared vision of prosperity.
From early diplomatic ties to strategic alliances, the China-Pakistan relationship has evolved to encompass deep economic cooperation, exemplified by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
The evolution of CPEC – a new geo-economic landscape: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a flagship project under President Xi Jinping’s visionary Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), marks a significant shift in our bilateral relations, transforming them from a traditional geo-political partnership to one centered on geo-economic cooperation. CPEC is more than just an infrastructure project; it represents a new paradigm that emphasizes economic connectivity, regional integration, and shared prosperity.
At its core, CPEC aligns with President Xi’s vision of promoting global peace, stability, and harmony through enhanced economic ties and development. Under the BRI, China aims to create a network of economic corridors that foster cooperation, trade, and connectivity across regions, making CPEC a crucial pillar in this global vision.
CPEC’s role in regional connectivity and economic cooperation: Since its inception, CPEC has played an instrumental role in promoting regional connectivity and cooperation. Through massive infrastructure projects, including highways, energy plants, and ports, CPEC has not only strengthened Pakistan’s economy but also contributed to the larger goal of poverty reduction and economic growth across the region. Gwadar Port, for instance, is now poised to become a hub of trade, connecting South Asia with Central Asia and beyond.
CPEC Phase 1, completed successfully, has already contributed significantly to Pakistan’s socioeconomic development. The projects undertaken, such as the Sukkur-Multan Motorway and numerous power plants, have helped alleviate chronic energy shortages, improved road networks, and created thousands of jobs. These early projects were largely based on government-to-government (G2G) cooperation, laying the groundwork for the country’s economic revival.
CPEC Phase 2.0 – embracing business-to-business cooperation: As we move into the next phase of CPEC (CPEC 2.0), the focus is expanding from G2G collaboration to greater Business-to-Business (B2B) partnerships. While G2G projects will continue, the next phase seeks to leverage private sector investments, especially in the fields of industrial cooperation, agriculture, technology, and tourism.
Pakistan and China are already in discussions on several projects, including the establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs), which will drive industrialization and job creation. In particular, SEZs such as Rashakai, Dhabeji, and Allama Iqbal Industrial City are expected to generate over a million jobs. These SEZs are designed to attract both Pakistani and Chinese investors, enabling technology transfer and capacity building, thus providing an avenue for Pakistan’s industrial and economic uplift.
China’s success and lessons for Pakistan: China’s rapid socioeconomic transformation offers invaluable lessons for Pakistan. In a few decades, China lifted more than 800 million people out of poverty – an achievement that stands unparalleled in human history. This success is rooted in China’s focus on long-term planning, political stability, continuity of policies, and ongoing reforms.
For Pakistan to follow a similar path, we must internalize these lessons. Our development strategy must centre on peace, stability, and continuity of policies, which are key factors for economic growth. Pakistan’s leadership is committed to implementing reforms that align with the five new corridors suggested by President Xi, including the Growth Corridor, Livelihood Corridor, Green Corridor, Innovation Corridor, and Inclusivity Corridor.
Pakistan’s 5Es and the future of CPEC: Under the leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s development strategy is centered on the ‘5Es Framework’, focusing on Exports, e-Pakistan, Environment, Energy, and Equity & Empowerment. This framework aligns seamlessly with the new phase of CPEC and the broader goals of the BRI, ensuring that both countries mutually benefit from high-quality development initiatives.
The 5Es framework will enhance Pakistan’s export potential, modernize its energy infrastructure, and promote digital transformation (e-Pakistan). Environmental sustainability is also a key focus, with green development and renewable energy projects playing a central role in CPEC 2.0. Moreover, the equity and inclusivity agenda ensures that the benefits of development reach every corner of Pakistan, from urban centres to rural areas.
The road ahead – ensuring a win-win future: As we look towards the future, Pakistan and China are poised to deepen their economic and strategic cooperation even further. CPEC represents a ‘win-win’ partnership that will continue to unlock new opportunities for both countries. By aligning our economic goals with China’s Belt and Road vision, Pakistan is positioned to become a hub of regional connectivity, trade, and prosperity.
Pakistan’s leadership is committed to sustaining this momentum. With political stability, policy continuity, and a focus on human capital development, we can realize the full potential of CPEC and ensure that this vital partnership brings lasting benefits to both nations.
As we celebrate China’s National Day, we are reminded of the strength of our bond and the shared future that awaits us. Together, we will continue to write a new chapter of prosperity and development, ensuring that the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor remains a cornerstone of peace, stability, and economic growth in the region.
Industrial roadmap for Pakistan: Part – I
By: Humayun Akhtar Khan | October 01, 2024
For decades, Pakistan has made efforts to attain macro stability. Yet, it is far from achieving it. Short-term measures such as debt rollovers and control of imports have given brief periods of external stability, but they are not sustainable.
In my recent columns, I have stressed the need for an overhaul in the government of Pakistan’s approach to the economy. The government must rectify past policy mistakes and commit itself to a growth strategy. It must also steadily reduce our over reliance on outside help.
A key component of the growth strategy should be to promote industrialization. I have shared before an outline of such a programme. In this column, I spell out the strategy in some detail.
Industrialization is important as it has a proven link with growth. The path is structural transformation, which spurs the economy into producing new and more complex goods. The private and public sectors work together in a planned way for the economy to progress from low tech to higher tech goods.
For a few decades, Pakistan’s industry has been in decline both in quantity and quality. In the 1960s, Pakistan’s exports were more sophisticated than that of Thailand and Sri Lanka. It is now well behind.
Data shows that Pakistan’s share of manufacturing in GDP is about 13 per cent. India is marginally higher, but the ratio of Thailand, Vietnam and Bangladesh range between 22 and 25 per cent. In terms of investment or gross fixed capital formation, at 12 per cent of GDP, Pakistan is way behind the above economies. India, BD, Vietnam and Thailand have ratios ranging between 23 and 31 per cent of GDP.
Pakistan has lost rank in many other areas. Economic complexity is one such measure. Simply said, it is a holistic measure of society’s knowledge that translates into the kind of goods it makes. MIT’s Media Lab and Harvard’s Kennedy School jointly developed the index. The correlation between economic complexity and GDP/capita is almost perfect. In 2021, Pakistan ranked 94th in the world. India was at 42, Thailand at 23 and China was 18. Vietnam was at 61.
Pakistan has also fallen in the WEF’s competitiveness and UNDP’s HDI indices. Labour productivity too has dropped in Pakistan. The latter is an indicator of the economy’s ability to produce more goods from the same unit of input.
In sum, Pakistan’s industry is in a dire state. There are many areas to focus on for the industry to progress. It is up to our leaders to imagine policies that create national prosperity. It is not something that is inherited or gifted. A continuation of the government’s policy of the last decade, of piling debt on debt, would only make things worse.
Pakistan needs a well-thought-out industrial policy for going up the value chain which enables our goods to compete globally for export. The industrial policy would be a long-term plan to continuously upgrade production and boost exports.
For an economy that currently produces low-tech products, the move up of industry has to be gradual. At present, we do not have the human and physical capital to support production of complex goods. Nor does the government offer enough tech support through R&D and training. On select occasions, firms may also need preferential credit or matching public investment, say in logistics.
All the above must be parts of an industrial policy – to be used as needed. The change will come through a coordinated set of public and private investments with improved rules and regulations in support of businesses.
Given Pakistan’s present fiscal constraints, the effort would have to be modest in the beginning. The government may not be able to improve public goods adequately to meet the needs of firms. Though even basic effort to help with the most critical inputs would make exports and jobs grow. One key step is to establish what the most critical inputs are. The government must have a robust institutional setup to identify what is most needed in consultation with the private sector.
In this column, I do not recommend specific measures or which industry to support. It is important to view industrial policy as a stimulus for structural change rather than promotion of a specific industry. And it is certainly not for specific firms. That would be cronyism.
Today, I discuss industrial policy’s role in transforming industry. Later, we will look at its role in the IT and agriculture sectors. Though most associated with East Asia, public support for private production has a long history in Europe and the US. More recently also, after a period of following the neo-liberal path, the US, UK and EU have embraced industrial policy. It is central to ‘Bidenomics’ as well as to the US’s huge arms industry. The EU too is eager to close the economic gap with US and China. A recent competitiveness report led by Mr Mario Draghi calls for massive increase in public and private investment.
Industrialization does not occur in one single burst. It is a thorough step-by-step process. Government assistance is a process of discovery, by finding out why investors are shy of producing new products or why they cannot export those goods that they produce already. There are uncertainties that, in the eyes of the investor, prevent the firm from becoming profitable. The government and the private sector must combine to detect these hurdles and remove them.
The economy’s present weakness is a major uncertainty for firms. Also, changes in rules such as import control or increase in import tax is another source of unease. Firms also worry about their ability to adapt new technologies to local conditions.
Some new products need coordinated public investment for success. Cut flower or meat exporters need reliable cold chain logistics, without which they cannot transport their goods to the port. There is also the fear of imitation by other firms. The pioneering firm assumes all the risks of making a new product. Yet, when successful, it must share the profits with the imitating firms. These are manageable risks, but they need careful identification and solutions.
Pakistan has made many mistakes in the past where its support to industry has depleted the economy. That support has not helped with jobs or exports, nor has it enabled our firms to bring in new technology. That is why selection of what help to offer is critical. The government of Pakistan must ensure that its limited funds support those few activities that boost growth and exports most.
Furthermore, contrary to all successful examples of industrial policy, our support to firms is long term or even endless. Either there is no performance criteria or government does not enforce them. That is a loss to the state. Government help to private firms must always have a sunset of a few years. Within this period, firms must become profitable or risk losing support.
Firms must adhere to agreed performance requirements. These may include increase in export, intake of new technology, new jobs or meeting environmental standards. There must be clear benchmarks for the firms and how to measure them.
Government support must preferably go to activities that have positive spillovers. For example, training to improve language skills helps several sectors, tourism, call centres or translation and interpretation. The benefit to the economy would be less if the government gave fiscal incentives to just one of those industries.
To be continued
Obstacles to climate activism in Pakistan
By: Mirza Mujtaba Baig | October 01, 2024
A similar situation was observed in the early 1990s when few people understood environmental pollution, and most considered garbage collection to be the sole responsibility of environmental regulators, which were still in their infancy at the time. However, due to pressure from global importers, export-based industries gradually began to comply with environmental laws to maintain their market share. Additionally, the growing green movement in the media and civil society led local industries to hire environmental consultants to ensure compliance and avoid legal action. While many of these efforts were superficial, the media played a crucial role in raising public awareness about the benefits of a clean environment.
Today, climate change is occurring at a rapid pace, yet institutional responses have been slow. Even the establishment of climate change institutions has been delayed, with a fully-fledged climate change authority being established only recently, seven years after the passage of the first climate change act. While climate change policies and adaptation plans exist at both federal and provincial levels, ground-level implementation remains minimal. Unlike the environmental movement of the past, there is limited awareness and engagement on climate change within civil society beyond superficial support. A few NGOs are working to address the issue, but their outreach is hampered by resource constraints.
The media, while trying its best to highlight the issue, is heavily focused on covering climate disasters, which have become increasingly frequent. This focus leaves little room for discussing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Additionally, the lack of progress at the government level, beyond a few selected projects under Nationally Determined Contributions, limits the media's ability to report on solutions. These projects are primarily focused on demonstrating compliance with the Paris Agreement and securing climate finance.
A significant obstacle to climate activism in Pakistan is the lack of knowledge within civil society about climate change, its causes and its impacts. While people may understand the basic causes and effects, they often rely on climate change experts, who are limited in number and may be reluctant to speak out due to job constraints. This places a heavy burden on a small group of climate activists with expertise in the field.
In Karachi, a group of climate activists has been organising climate marches, but these events have struggled to attract large crowds. Another group is working to mobilise communities to address issues like costly electricity, load-shedding and heatwaves through a transition to renewable energy. However, these efforts face resistance from communities that are more concerned with other pressing issues and are less receptive to climate change solutions.
While the Sindh Forest Department's initiative to generate carbon credits through nature-based solutions is commendable, it highlights the challenges of ensuring climate justice at the community level. Despite the project's significant revenue, the surrounding communities have not received a commensurate share, which constitutes a clear violation of climate justice principles. Although the project proponent claims to have undertaken community development activities, the scale of these efforts is disproportionate to the total earnings. A more engaged and active community, driven by climate activism, could have helped to prevent such disparities.
At the government level, there is a lack of support for fostering climate activism within communities. Instead, government-selected individuals are often provided with climate training to create a false impression of preparedness for collective action against climate change. A small group of climate activists in the city centre has started offering free training, but their efforts have received minimal attention due to the presence of numerous other groups that not only provide training but also pay participants. These paid training programmes attract individuals primarily interested in earning money rather than genuinely contributing to climate action.
Furthermore, unlike other sectors where anyone can contribute to community development, working in the climate sector requires a basic understanding of science to comprehend the relationship between GHG emissions, heat trapping and global warming. Additionally, political awareness is necessary to connect climate issues with broader political challenges, as institutional change requires the involvement of legislators.
In Western countries, the focus has shifted from climate activism to climate actionism, which involves working on the ground to address climate change. In Pakistan, however, climate activism is often limited to criticising the fossil fuel industry and government inaction. A recent campaign by a Karachi-based climate NGO to greenify the city's sole power generation company has faced backlash, highlighting the shortsightedness of many communities and their reluctance to engage in climate action.
The environment of fear in Pakistan, particularly in Karachi, is a major obstacle to climate activism. People are afraid of being labeled as traitors or facing legal action if they speak out for their climate rights. They may not realise that climate activism is essential for climate adaptation and that the city needs a large number of activists to work alongside rescue workers to mitigate the impacts of climate disasters. Without collective action, Pakistan will continue to suffer the consequences of climate change.
To effectively implement climate change mitigation and adaptation measures, the government must prioritise genuine programmes for community mobilisation. These initiatives should not be limited to bureaucratic paperwork but should actively engage with communities. To achieve this, the government should collaborate with genuine NGOs and community groups to promote climate activism and create a second tier of workforce capable of responding to climate crises. Relying solely on government servants may result in administrative efficiency but often falls short in addressing on-the-ground challenges. In such situations, the burden of protecting lives and property may fall disproportionately on a few philanthropic organisations.
Bangladesh crisis and its implications for Pakistan
By: Nomeen Kassi | October 01, 2024
History is filled with many fatal uprisings and revolutions, each for different reasons, carrying different outcomes and lessons. The French Revolution shook the monarchs of Europe. Additionally, history is replete with anti-revolutionary movements and individuals like Klemens von Metternich of Austria, who aimed to uphold supremacy of monarchy and suppress revolutionary uprisings in Europe. Despite these efforts, revolutions have always prevailed and succeeded. Revolutions are like fire; they start with a small spark and then spread quickly, covering a large area, completely changing everything their path. This is the nature of revolutions. They begin with a spark and spread quickly. A small uprising can transform into a revolution, completely changing the system. The recent uprising in Bangladesh is a perfect example. A protest against the system led to the prime minister and government’s overthrow.
Sheikh Hasina Wazed, the longest-standing prime minister of Bangladesh, confronted the protests from the student union. She is the daughter of Sheikh Mujib-ur-Rahman, who played a key role in the formation of Bangladesh in 1971. Initially, the anti-government protests began in July among university students. In the beginning, re were peaceful protests against the quota system in civil service jobs. Relatives of veterans from Bangladesh’s 1971 independence war occupied one-third of these jobs. Although most of the demands were met, these peaceful protests turned into wider and more violent demonstrations. During the state’s suppression, more than 300 individuals lost their lives in these uprisings.
According to the World Bank FY 2022-23), Bangladesh was one of the fastest-growing economies in South Asia the world, with a growth rate of 7.2% after the global pandemic. The GPD was growing positively, but the economic conditions of the people did not improve, and they were unable to produce the required jobs for around 18 million potential job seekers. The unemployment rate reached 5.1%. Additionally, there was a hike in inflation. As a result of this, students started their agitation, which later on turned violent and toppled the Hasina Regime, forcing her flee from her country.
Among quota issue, another reason for such unrest was the increasing corruption. The prime minister herself was facing the corruption allegations in particular and the government officials at higher ranks in general. While protests were largely due to the quota system, several grievances had built up against the government officials due to corruption allegations, bribery, nepotism, and money laundering charges. As the violence grew, the situation became more unstable and out of control.
The recent events in Bangladesh have had a massive impact on the region. The neighboring countries, such as India and Pakistan, face the same challenges and unemployment issues; therefore, the youth can be easily instrumentalized and mobilized by the political actors for their personal economic and political gains. With increasing technological advancement and the role of social media, the public is more aware of the political and social flux than ever before. Youth today politically more engaged and aware of the changing dynamics, therefore showing more involvement. Bangladesh students’ uprising gives a sense of hope to the youth elsewhere, as they believe they can also bring about a change in the political arena and can be successful. The politicians of Pakistan today concentrate more on their youth followers, knowing the potential they carry. The political parties are trying to gain more youth support as the educated youth can create a sense of change. The unemployed, educated male youth have been historically the initiators of rebellions and uprisings.
Historically, Pakistani politics has been marked by student activism. Even before the partition of the subcontinent, educated male youth played a key role in the struggle for. After the partition, students participated in politics and were key actors in protests against the government. And withbeen ing with the emerging populist leaders. Such events in the neighborhood strengthen the Pakistani youth to stand against the political system and bad governance, which is alarming in the current political and security situations.
The issue arises when these students’ ideologies are unclear, leading them to blindly follow any charismatic leader, failing to address core issues causing political chaos in the country. They fail to address or suggest any political or social reforms. One of the reasons for this could be a lack of knowledge, exclusiveness, and less participation in students’ unions. As a result, students fail to develop and understand the political and social fabric. They are blank in ideology. However, it is impossible to maintain a social and political vacuum for students. The questioning youth is taking a key interest in the situation and demands change. They are the future leaders; hence, they play a significant role in shaping society and the political arena.
To avoid such situations and pseudo-revolutions, engaging the youth in a positive and fruitful way is essential to make them an asset to the country rather than an unwanted, unmanageable political burden. Students’ unions with negative mindsets need to be managed. The student unions based on ethnicities and sectarian basis are more volatile and deserve the attention of the state. For any positive change, they should be encouraged. These unions provide a platform for the youth to raise their voice and contribute to improving governance. Unfortunately, our ethnicity-based students’ union has taken the wrong direction of closing the gates of the institutions, promoting propaganda without ascertaining the truth, and shouting against the perceived wrongdoers. With proper knowledge and guidance, youth can become an important asset to the country and a step towards change against corruption and bad governance. Pakistan can learn from Bangladesh’s experience, such as promoting youth engagement in politics and addressing corruption and unemployment.
China-Pakistan friendship: An unbreakable bond
By: Waqar Hassan | October 01, 2024
“China can give up gold but not its friendship with Pakistan” —Ex-President Hu Jintao.
HAVING a neighbouring country that supports us in all situations is a true blessing in the hostile environment of South Asia. When Pakistan gained independence, it was amidst tense relations with its neighbour, India. Considering this, luck smiled upon Pakistan and made China its neighbour. On September 21, 1949, China came into existence, and its national day was celebrated on October 1, commemorating the establishment of its new government. Since then, the two countries have had an unparalleled bond. Never have the two countries experienced insecurity in their relationship. The diplomatic relations between Pakistan and China were established in 1951. Pakistan and China, despite their diverse cultures, languages, and religions, have fostered an exceptional bond. The connection between the two nations has influenced various realms, such as the economy, politics, strategy, and the global stage.
It is said that borders are the scissors that slice through the beauty of relationships between two countries. Nonetheless, the boundary agreement between the two countries was concluded with mutual consent in 1963. Moreover, through diplomatic efforts, Pakistan played a crucial role in bridging the gap between America and China in 1970, leading to President Nixon’s groundbreaking visit to China. In times of trouble, the friendship between the two countries faced a test. Throughout the 1965 war with India, China remained steadfast in supporting Pakistan. The Chinese government labelled the Indian aggression against Pakistan as “naked aggression” and called for an end to it. After the war, China extended economic aid to Pakistan by offering $60 million in 1965 and military equipment such as tanks and aircraft.
In 2005, the two countries also entered into a treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Good neighbourly relations. The two nations improved their geographical connectivity through the construction of the Karakorum Highway, also known as the Friendship Highway, in the 1970s. The construction of this road strengthened the economic and cultural ties between the two countries. Initially, the Karakorum Highway was built to foster mutual advantage by capitalizing on the strategic location of the countries in the region. The scope of strategic connection later expanded to include CPEC, a significant project between Pakistan and China. This project was officially signed by both countries on July 5th, 2013. Once it’s finished, Pakistan will be able to help China reach the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. China needs these strategic linkages to uphold its regional dominance.
CPEC encompasses different phases. The initial phase, known as the short-term phase, began in 2015 and continued until 2020. The medium-term phase, known as the second phase, will span from 2021 to 2025. The long-term phase will last for four years, starting in 2026 and ending in 2030. Chinese investment through CPEC has improved infrastructure, ensured energy projects, promoted highway development, and generated employment opportunities in Pakistan. The Orange Line Train project in Lahore, Punjab is a result of the infrastructural progress made through CPEC.
Furthermore, the mutual technological exchange led to the creation of technology parks in Pakistan. Additionally, mutual trade is also a significant aspect of this relationship. By entering into FTA, the two countries have improved their economies and helped each other. The total trade volume of Pakistan with China stayed at 160 USD million in July 2024. China also extends its military assistance to Pakistan. Through collaboration, the two nations have developed the JF-17 Thunder fighter jet. The depth of the relationship between the two countries is evidenced by their joint military exercises and technology exchange for military purposes. China consistently offers support to Pakistan in economic, strategic, political, and regional matters. Pakistan has also shown unwavering trust in China by granting access to Gwadar port for strategic benefits. Additionally, there are also cultural exchanges that take place between the two countries. Despite the challenges in the region, the determination of the two countries to support each other is a great example. The bond between Pakistan and China is a prime example of strength and coordination, and there are multiple avenues to reinforce this relationship.
To promote harmony, it is essential to enhance the bond between people from both countries. Schools and universities can collaborate on cultural exchange programs to facilitate mutual understanding of cultural norms and values among young people from both nations. To make the most of the expanding cooperation between the two nations, Pakistan needs to concentrate on improving its human resource capabilities. For Pakistan to excel in technology, it is necessary to foster cooperation in the field of science and technology in this context. Moreover, it is crucial to address the terrorism threat in the region effectively. Actively spreading chaos through acts of terrorism, the enemies of both countries seek to weaken the confidence between China and Pakistan. However, it is crucial for the two nations to remain determined in realizing projects that benefit them both.
It is also necessary to debunk all the misinformation about Pakistan’s debt burden. China’s assistance in the financial domain demonstrates its commitment to Pakistan as a true brother. To lighten the load of their trustworthy neighbour, both nations have stayed committed to engaging in acts of brotherhood. Pakistan has consistently offered support to China, going above and beyond, and China has reciprocated that support during challenging times. Both states stand as symbols of strength and protect each other’s national interests. With the continuous growth of the Pakistan-China relationship, it is anticipated that the two nations will greatly collaborate and mutually benefit in all sectors.
Pak-BD new strategic equilibrium, South Asia
By: Brig Tariq Khalil | October 01, 2024
AFTER 55 years, the truth has finally prevailed. Mohammad Ali Jinnah’s anniversary was celebrated in Dhaka, with speeches emphasizing the immense struggle of Bengali Muslims for the creation of Pakistan. The reality is that Pakistan came into being largely due to the efforts of the leadership from Bengal, Bihar and Central Provinces. The speeches in Dhaka underscored the shared bond between Pakistan and Bangladesh, with some speakers even discussing the notion of a common defence against India under a nuclear umbrella.
The political reality is that had there been no Pakistan, there wouldn’t have been any Bangladesh. There is no doubt that India manipulated the events of 1971, taking advantage of the follies of Pakistan’s leadership, which led to naked aggression against a sovereign state. This act was carried out in violation of all norms of international law as well as the Partition Act of 1935. The fact remains that Indian Hindu leadership never anticipated Pakistan’s stability, believing it would not last more than six months. However, the Almighty had His own plans. It should not be forgotten that in 1962, Pakistan had a golden opportunity to take over Kashmir despite having fewer forces. Unfortunately, American pressure on President Ayub (as revealed in declassified documents) prevented him from pursuing this course. Pakistan suffered immensely both strategically and internationally.
Operation Gibraltar was not meant to proceed, yet it went ahead. It was a well-planned operation, but once again, American pressure was responsible for halting it. The operation was stalled due to a change in command. The Indian attack on the borders was anticipated, although Pakistan’s Foreign Minister had assured there would be no attack on the international border. This assurance proved hollow. Pakistan was fully prepared to counter it, effectively nullifying Indian intelligence. India failed to cross the BRB Canal. In the aftermath of the 1965 war, India began planning subversive activities in East Pakistan, having observed during the war that the province was not well protected militarily due to Pakistan’s scarcity of resources. Pakistan had only about five and a half divisions and could not afford to divide its forces between the two wings. This weakness was exploited by the Indians, leading to the Agartala conspiracy.
There is no doubt that Mujib was involved in the Agartala conspiracy alongside India, as later revealed in RAW papers. Unfortunately, West Pakistani politicians, for their short-term gains, released Mujib after the roundtable conference, turning him into a hero in East Pakistan. There is no doubt that in East Pakistan, Martial Law was loosely enforced for multiple reasons, including a lack of law enforcement personnel and the absence of political will. This allowed Mujib Rahman to propagate an ethnic and economic agenda, fuelling sentiments in East Pakistan throughout the year leading up to the elections.
The elections were thoroughly rigged by the Awami League. As the Administrator of Noakhali district, I, the author, witnessed how the Awami League’s manipulation created a false majority. The party harassed other political groups, preventing them from fielding candidates against the Awami League. Muslim League workers were abducted, tortured and their families threatened. We apprehended several Awami League members engaged in these activities. This led to a flawed election result that handed all the seats to the Awami League, against the true wishes of the majority in East Pakistan.
The people of East Pakistan during the period of United Bengal in 1906 struggled to have a separate province by division of Bengal. The massive protests by Hindus in the follow up forced the British to do away partition in 1912. Bengali leadership were politically much more conscious than the Muslims Central and Northern India. They realised that they cannot win the battle alone. In 1906 Muslim League was formed in Dhaka and struggle for the Muslims commenced in real political terms. In 1936 elections it was only the Bengal which could secure Muslim seats as compared to the Central India which had few and far less, in the northern part of India, today West Pakistan the results were poorer.
Jinnah after 1936 elections made marathon tours of India to convince Muslims to rise for their rights and confront Congress on the other. Far right Muslim scholars as well as bureaucratic elements including the Punjab feudal were against Pakistan. It was only in 1946 elections, seeing the wind of change Muslims feudal families of Punjab decided to support Muslim League. The British had limited options. To continue, India as one state needed a large force level, or handed over to Congress who claimed to be the majority party or partition India. The DNA of the Bengali people, their political Acumen always is superior to the other Brother Muslims in the Northern part of India and Punjab.
Lahore Resolution was also tabled by Bengali leadership. The most important, even in 1946 when Pakistan had become a reality, Bengali leadership felt that independent East Pakistan may not be able to withstand the military and economic pressures from India due to its location. They unanimously decided for a federal set-up after partition. It is unfortunate that Jinnah died very soon and the subsequent Muslim League leadership of the West Pakistan indulged in the power game for many years. They could not reach to a consensus constitution. It resulted in the political void within the polity and governance of Pakistan allowing the military to take over. The rest is history.
A significant effort was made to elevate East Pakistan’s development to the level of West Pakistan, virtually from scratch. Space does not permit a detailed list of the Pakistani government’s achievements, but by 1970, the bureaucracy in East Pakistan, which once stood at zero, was brought on par with that of West Pakistan. Likewise, federal allocations in the Sixth Plan favoured East Pakistan more than West Pakistan. However, the continuity of martial law stifled democratic sentiments among the people, fostering disenchantment with the federal government. Meanwhile, West Pakistani politicians remained preoccupied with power struggles.
In 1968, the Indian Prime Minister tasked RAW (as noted in RAW Papers) with carrying out subversion and sabotage in the aftermath of the 1965 war. RAW worked to create the false perception that West Pakistan was exploiting East Pakistan’s resources, obscuring the reality. As is often said, perception matters, and no amount of logic can convince people otherwise. This is precisely what occurred in Pakistan.
The people of East Pakistan were the true founders of Pakistan, but the creation of Bangladesh, following India’s naked aggression and the actions of the Awami League, struck at the soul of East Pakistan’s population. They did not vote for the Awami League to bring about separation and this discontent became evident when Mujib was killed in 1975.
In the 1980s, there were efforts by both Bangladesh and Pakistan to explore the idea of a confederation or union. However, these efforts were sabotaged by India. President Irshad was deposed and killed, and later Zia-ur-Rahman also met the same fate. During Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule, she imposed a regime of suppression, systematically erasing any signs of Pakistan’s foundational history. The people of Bangladesh have since realized they were deceived by India, leading to a rising wave of dissent within the country.
Nevertheless, India is not going to sit idle. The strategic dynamics, not only in the subcontinent but also in the rim of states surrounding the Indian Ocean, have changed. Conspiracies have already begun in India against the new Bangladesh government, aiming to belittle them as mere proxies of Pakistan in a fifth-generation war and to cut off their sources of commerce with India. Although traders are urging the government not to take such actions, arguing that the loss would be greater for India than for Bangladesh, Pakistan must step forward to offer all economic and business avenues to Bangladesh to fill the gap that India is trying to create.
There is serious talk in India about possible military action against Bangladesh to secure the Chicken Neck area and the Sylhet division as well as to create unrest within Bangladesh. The strategic locations of Chittagong Port and Cox’s Bazar, currently being developed by China, along with the issue of Saint Martin Island, are likely to become major friction points in the coming days. Pakistan must put its own house in order to ensure that it is in a position to fully support Bangladesh. At this moment, fostering the best possible friendly relations in commerce, trade, political space and defence is crucial. I have consistently asserted over the past few years in my writings that the defence of Bangladesh will be significantly strengthened through collaboration with nuclear Pakistan and the support of international powers. Indian aggression in various forms should not be ignored.
Bangladesh has great strategic potential to cooperate with Pakistan, ensuring that both flanks of the Indian subcontinent are covered by these two friendly countries to prevent Indian dominance over the Indian Ocean and the sea routes to the Straits of Malacca. During the Musharraf era, delegations from Bangladesh’s business and academic sectors frequently visited Pakistan, sponsored by the Pakistani government. However, this practice was halted by Hasina. It is essential to restore and support this practice, alongside establishing direct international flights at subsidized fares. Additionally, shipping services for both cargo and passengers should be restarted and private shipping companies should be invited to participate. There is a possibility that India will attempt to disrupt both air and sea routes, yet a strong Pakistan can overcome these hurdles by blocking India’s efforts.
