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Articles Regarding Pakistan

Strategic importance of Wakhan Corridor for Pakistan

By: M Abdullah Hamid Gul

January 18, 2025

Courtesy: Pakistan Observer

 

THE Wakhan Corridor, also known as the Pamir Corridor, is a narrow strip located in the north-eastern region of Badakhshan, Afghanistan, linking Afghanistan to the Xinjiang Province of China. This corridor serves as a geographical demarcation between Pakistan and Tajikistan, with Tajikistan situated to its north and Pakistan to its south. On the world map, the Wakhan Corridor resembles a diminutive chimney extending into the north-eastern part of Afghanistan. For centuries, this passage has been utilized for trade across Central Asia.

The delineation of the Wakhan Corridor occurred during the 19th century amidst the clashes between Britain and Russia, colloquially referred to as the “Great Game.” During this period, both powers designated the area as a buffer zone with the intention of preventing direct conflict between British India and the Russian Empire. The definitive resolution regarding the fate of Wakhan arose in 1891 during a meeting at the village of Bozai Gumbaz, involving British officer Francis Younghusband and his Russian counterpart, Colonel Yanov. This discussion culminated in the designation of the territory as Russian; however, Russia later conceded and recognized the region as part of Afghanistan under a pre-established agreement.

Under British rule, the Durand Line was established in 1893 through a treaty between Mortimer Durand and Amir Abdur Rahman Khan. This corridor became a critical component of British policy concerning Russia, playing a vital role in the establishment of an Afghan buffer state. In the latter half of the 19th century, the Russian Empire absorbed Central Asian cities such as Tashkent, Samarkand, Bukhara and Khokand—regions that were considered gateways to British India. Although Afghanistan maintained its status as an independent nation, it was effectively governed under British India.

In 1895, Russia and Britain established a Pamir Boundary Commission, which delineated the northern and southern borders of the corridor and declared that neither China nor Afghanistan would interfere in the area, a decision that had devastating effects on the local populace. Consequently, several Kyrgyz tribes migrated from Wakhan to Russian territories but later returned, only to subsequently flee to Pakistan following the Soviet invasion of Kabul in 1979, with some establishing residence in Turkey’s Kurdistan region. Currently, a significant portion of the Wakhan Corridor is technically accessible from Kabul but remains outside of its governmental control. Geopolitically, Wakhan spans 35,000 square kilometres and features dense forests, with certain sections measuring 10 miles in width, adjoined by the Pamir Mountains at elevations reaching 17,000 feet. It is inhabited by a population of approximately 17,000, which includes farmers, shepherds and local Wakhi and migrant Kyrgyz tribes.

Today, the Wakhan Corridor stands at the intersection of interests among China, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Pakistan has persistently sought to facilitate trade with Central Asian States; however, the ongoing terrorism and conflict in Afghanistan over the past four decades have severely hampered these efforts. As a result of proxy conflicts in Wakhan, Pakistan finds itself facing a more complex situation compared to China and Afghanistan. Negotiations have taken place between Afghanistan and China regarding the construction of bridges and the laying of oil pipelines in this valley. Should this corridor become operational, it would not only diminish Afghanistan’s reliance on India, but it would also facilitate Pakistan’s connectivity with Central Asian nations. This development would lead to a reduction of Indian influence in Central Asia, particularly in Afghanistan. Ground access to Central Asia holds both economic and military advantages for Pakistan, necessitating that the government prioritize actions in this regard.

Foremost, it is imperative to eradicate terrorist groups, including ISIS, to establish peace and security in the region. To this end, Afghanistan must play a pivotal role in countering terrorism, alongside China and Pakistan. Additionally, effective management of the Pak-Afghan border is critically important. The interim Afghan government is obstructing Pakistan’s land routes to Central Asian countries, indicating that the Taliban is not genuinely interested in fostering sincere relations with Islamabad. Initially, the establishment of a Taliban government in Afghanistan was anticipated to enhance bilateral relations; however, the current situation is quite the opposite. Refugee terrorist elements in Afghanistan are exacerbating Pakistan’s security challenges, with the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) undertaking acts of terrorism originating from Afghan territory. The support of terrorist elements by the Taliban is compounding Pakistan’s difficulties. As a result, access for Pakistan to Central Asian nations via Wakhan has become increasingly complicated under the Taliban regime.

At the behest of India, the Taliban has refused to recognize the Durand Line, demanding the opening of the Pak-Afghan border, further complicating Pakistan’s access to Central Asia through the Wakhan Corridor. This corridor holds immense economic, commercial and geopolitical significance for Pakistan. The purpose of outlining this context is to highlight that the Taliban’s actions, including supporting terrorism and smuggling activities, have destabilized the region, resulting in the loss of thousands of Pakistani lives and harming its economy. India, acutely aware of the corridor’s strategic importance, actively opposes its functionality. In the past, India utilized the Fakhor airbase in Tajikistan to monitor Pakistan-China activities and expanded it for military purposes, though Russian pressure limited its operations. During the Kargil conflict, Indian assaults in Churbat, Mushkafarm and Saltoro underscored tensions, while Pakistan leveraged regions from Shigar Bridge to Nubra to maintain its military presence. Currently, Pakistan, China and Russia are collaboratively countering India’s expansionist ambitions in the region.

Access to the Wakhan Corridor will bolster Pakistan’s strategic interests, enabling the enhancement of military installations and counter-measures against Indian interference from the Ladakh region into Gilgit-Baltistan. The aim of this discussion is to highlight that Pakistan has made considerable efforts to establish robust relations with successive Afghan governments; however, due to terrorism and other influencing factors within Afghanistan, these endeavours have not been successful. Therefore, there should be no further delay in Pakistan’s economic and strategic initiatives in this regard. Undoubtedly, the development of the Wakhan Corridor will herald prosperity and facilitate trade for us!

 

 

Eternal Hope, Eternal Stagnation

By: Saad Masood

January 18, 2025

Courtesy: Daily Times

 

As we welcome 2025 and start the New Year with a bang – there is hope that this year Pakistan will outshine the previous year, this year missing will be the ones who passed away and not the ones who are still alive, this year the naysayers will be proven wrong and the soothsayers will be proven right, this year worry beads will be few and worries even fewer, this year fat cats will be less fat and poor mice will be less poor!

One might expect Pakistan to be a land transformed by new technologies, modern policies, and a growing sense of national unity. But despair not dear reader, as we are about to discover, the trajectory of the country seems destined to stay remarkably similar to a hen trying to launch itself into flight! The hen and the country both will keep crawling on ground – at least, according to the nauseating wisdom of those who have been predicting change for decades. Buckle up, because in 2025, it’s business as usual in Pakistan.

Islamabad will remain the palace of intrigues and deadpan expressions “What, is the country burning?” As cold hearted as the chills of the Margallas and as devoid of logic as in rebranding Twitter to X. Lahore will rise to the occasion to become the beacon of light in these trying conditions, if its light could shine through the smog and the myriad levels of political banners adorned by its main highways.

Karachi will continue to swelter under a relentless sun, the air thick with the scent of exhaust fumes, biryani and despair. The city’s infamous traffic jams will achieve a new level of superiority, capable of instinctively creating their own gravitational fields to put a black hole to shame and trap unsuspecting motorists in a vortex of gridlock. In 2025 – Pakistan will remain a land full of contradictions where the new will keep on clashing with the old, the digital will collide with the ancient and Wi-Fi will clash with Why-Me?

Development will remain perpetually around the corner, much like the elusive arrival of residential gas when it is time to prepare a meal. Progress will remain absent just as the obscure availability of electricity during load-shedding hours.

In the New Year – the political landscape will continue to be a bewildering episode of “Squid Game” with politicians of all sizes and ages vying to grab power by climbing over as many dead bodies as needed. In this pursuit, they will use a bewildering array of tactics, from obtuse social media posts to outright bribery and backstabbing. It will continue to be a spectacle of dramatic re-runs and u-turns.

Re-runs: love them or hate them, the political dynasties will reign supreme, ensuring that mere lip-service is provided to the notion of “fresh blood”. U-turns: same trusted family names will remain at the helm of party affairs and hold press conferences to announce their undying commitment to change but of course back tracking it with such guile later that it would put a champion twirling gymnast to shame. The rulers, having perfected the art of “gaslighting the nation” will convince the public that everything is actually going great, while the country teeters on the cusp of financial ruin.

The country’s many opposition parties will hone the art of turning every single government initiative into a national scandal. Instead of aligning to the adage “we’re not in power, but we’re always in the media” they will transform their slogan to “we’re not in power, but we’ll make sure no one forgets it.” The silent “guardians of the galaxy” will continue to run the policy of a need-to-know basis – the less you need to know, the better for you! The circus that is the economy will keep providing international economists a perennial sense of amusement. Inflation may rise to such proportions where a cup of chai can only be bought with a small loan and a life insurance policy. The rupee may devalue to such an extent where it may be considered a realistic alternative to toilet paper – if ever toilet paper was in vogue in Pakistan!

The stock market will continue to play out the game of “snakes and ladders” with no one knowing how it works and everyone and his uncle claiming that they have the inside track (andar ki baat). Skyrocketing prices would mean that the most expensive commodity will be honesty, followed closely by hard work and then an apology from the finance department for getting all of us in this mess!

This year, the state of Pakistan’s infrastructure will be as stateless as it gets! It will be as half-baked as an uncooked apple crumble at a bake-off contest. Roads will be started but never finished, flyovers will be initiated but will “fly-over” nowhere, dams will again be damned! Along with Shalimar Gardens and other Mughal relics, the legendary potholes of Lahore will be a tourist attraction in their own right.

Pakistan’s health system in 2025 will be a medical miracle, except when you actually need it! It will be a blend of luck and chaos – both available in equal measure. The healing will be done more on a wing and a prayer and less on cutting-edge technologies and skilful expertise. The education sector, not to be left behind, will be the saga of the blind leading the blind or in this case, the unread leading the unread.

In schools, textbooks will be updated only when the printers run out of stock and have to print new ones, making history lessons about the Mughals feel like a very live conversation. Pakistan’s universities will be hotbeds of debate – but mostly about politics and whose uncle is in charge of the university. When students finally graduate, they’ll face a job market so saturated with degree-holders that it’ll make the search for a needle in a haystack seem like a pleasant diversion.

In 2025, Pakistan will again be a place where change is promised, but will never be fully realized. The cities may never develop, political dynasties may never fall, the roads may never finish, and the economy may continue its rollercoaster ride – but in Pakistan, at least the ride is never boring. So here’s to the New Year – a year very much like 2024, a year like every other! Containing the same raft of challenges, the same hood-winking politicians, and the same convoluted traffic patterns. But don’t worry, one can always look to the next year!

Pakistan will remain a land full of contradictions where the new will keep on clashing with the old, the digital will collide with the ancient and Wi-Fi will clash with Why-Me?

 

 

 

Trump, Pakistan and US deep state

By: Imtiaz Gul

January 18, 2025

Courtesy: Trubine Express

 

As the White House prepares to welcome Donald Trump for the second time, expectations for an end to duplicitous policies and fears of big disruption in the US relations with countries across the globe are growing.

Apprehensions in Europe over Trump's unpredictability and the likelihood of truncation through reform of the mighty establishment — as Trump has promised — notwithstanding, let us consider what Trump-II may mean for Pakistan and why tens of thousands of Pakistani-Americans are looking up to him. Zalmay Khalilzad, the former special envoy, buoyed this optimism through a crisp message via X, saying Pakistani rulers would do better to reach an agreement with PTI and release Imran Khan before January 20th instead of spending money on lobbying in the US.

In contrast, a couple of days before leaving Islamabad, former ambassador Donald Blome said the US chose not to interfere in Pakistan's domestic affairs after April 2022. "This is what history also taught us," he explained. At the same time, Blome, who undertook unmatched cross-country diplomacy for improving relations between the two countries and went as far as Gwadar, hoped Pakistani stakeholders would sit together to steer the country out of the perennial state of crisis that it faces today.

As his country's representative, an ambassador can only state this much publicly - obviously based on the brief that he or she gets from the capital.

But, regardless of the motives behind Khalilzad's tweet, two instances contradict the Biden administration's position on Pakistan and are likely to guide the new administration's policy.

First, on September 22, 2023, the Department of State imposed visa restrictions on Bangladeshi individuals "responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh. These individuals include members of law enforcement, the ruling party, and the political opposition".

"These persons and members of their immediate family may be found ineligible for entry into the United States. Additional persons found to have been responsible for, or complicit in, undermining the democratic election process in Bangladesh may also be found ineligible for US visas under this policy in the future. This includes current and former Bangladeshi officials, members of opposition and ruling political parties, and members of law enforcement, the judiciary, and security services," says the official announcement.

It said the latest action represents the United States commitment to supporting free and fair elections in Bangladesh that are carried out in a peaceful manner.

In another instance, as recent as January 10, 2025, a White House spokesperson condemned and rejected Nicolás Maduro's "illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela", elaborating that "Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency."

 

 

The struggle within: drug addiction in Pakistan

By: Dr Zafar Khan Safdar

January 17, 2025

Courtesy: Tribune Express

 

IN a world where the pursuit of happiness is often clouded by illusions, Pakistan confronts the harsh reality of drug addiction—a crisis that extends beyond individual suffering. Millions are ensnared by substance misuse, with the country’s role as a key transit hub for illicit drugs, particularly opium and heroin from Afghanistan, exacerbating the issue. This raises a fundamental question: how does a society confront an addiction not only to substances but also to cycles of violence and despair? With 7.6 million people, 7.6% of the adult population affected, Pakistan is caught in a struggle between hope and desperation. The growing number of young addicts challenges Pakistan’s future, reflecting a deeper crisis of choice and meaning.

In recent years, the crisis of drug addiction has deepened, with an alarming rise in the number of young people falling prey to its grasp. Over 60% of drug users in Pakistan are between the ages of 15 and 35, highlighting the vulnerability of youth at a time when they are searching for meaning, purpose and identity. This generational struggle reveals the fragility of the human spirit when confronted with a world that offers both promise and despair.

Among the most pressing concerns is opioid addiction, which affects over six million people, ensnaring individuals in a cycle of dependence that often begins with seemingly harmless prescriptions but quickly spirals into the abyss of heroin and other opioids. The consequences of opioid use are not just physical, they are existential. Overdoses, the transmission of deadly diseases like HIV/AIDS through needle sharing and the onset of chronic health problems reflect the broader human tragedy, the yearning for escape and relief from pain, often leading to even greater suffering. The increasing demand for services is outpacing Pakistan’s rehabilitation infrastructure. The 50–60 rehabilitation facilities run by the government are not enough to serve the demands of the millions of addicts. Many rehabilitation facilities have been established by the commercial sector and NGOs, but the most of them are in metropolitan areas, making them inaccessible to those living in rural areas, which are home to the bulk of drug users. Both public and private centres frequently struggle with issues including inadequate financing, overcrowding and a dearth of adequate medical facilities. Detoxification is the main emphasis of many centres, but they lack long-term rehabilitation programs, psychological support and vocational training, all essential components of a long-lasting recovery.

The problem is made more difficult by the shame associated with drug use, especially in conservative and rural communities. Families frequently hide the issue to preserve their social position and many people put off getting treatment out of fear of social rejection. This societal stigma restricts the efficacy of rehabilitation programs and makes it more difficult for people to get assistance. The government has taken a number of actions in reaction to the escalating problem. The National Anti-Narcotics Policy was put into effect in 2010 with the goal of lowering drug addiction in the nation by combining law enforcement actions with rehabilitation initiatives. The primary agency in charge of keeping an eye on and managing drug use and trafficking in Pakistan is the National Narcotics Control Board, which collaborates with international agencies such as the UNODC.

In order to fight cross-border drug trafficking, the government has also stepped up law enforcement operations and partnered with Afghanistan, Iran and relevant foreign organizations. Drug shipments have been intercepted via the use of anti-narcotics forces, improved border controls and intelligence sharing. The porous nature of Pakistan’s borders, particularly with Afghanistan, remains a significant challenge.

Even though the Anti-Narcotics Force has seized a significant amount of narcotics, including over hundreds tonnes of heroin and methamphetamines in 2022-23, traffickers frequently manage to evade law enforcement. The government has also been investing in rehabilitation initiatives, recognizing that addressing drug addiction requires not only law enforcement but also effective treatment and recovery support. These consist of social reintegration programs, psychotherapy and medical detox programs. To inform the public about the risks of drug addiction and to promote early intervention and treatment, public awareness initiatives have been started.

Despite these attempts to address the issue, significant challenges remain, including insufficient funding for rehabilitation programs, the high cost of private sector treatments and corruption within law enforcement, which allows traffickers to operate without consequence. Furthermore, many addicts, particularly in rural areas, remain without treatment due to the limited reach of recovery facilities. To tackle this growing issue, Pakistan must prioritize expanding and improving rehabilitation services, especially in underserved regions. Collaboration between federal and provincial governments is crucial to ensure nationwide access to treatment. Prevention efforts, particularly targeting youth and addressing root causes such as poverty and ignorance, must also be at the forefront. Strengthening law enforcement to dismantle trafficking networks and combat judicial corruption is essential for the success of anti-drug policies. Given the severity of the crisis, it is clear that the government’s response must be swift, sustained and comprehensive. Effective strategies, combining prevention, treatment and strict law enforcement, are necessary to curb this pervasive issue. Moreover, addressing underlying social factors like poverty and illiteracy, along with fostering international cooperation, will be crucial in breaking the cycle of addiction and ensuring a healthier, more stable future for Pakistan. Without coordinated efforts, the societal and economic impacts of drug addiction will continue to hinder the country’s progress.

 

 

2025 - Mideast, extremism and Pakistan

By: Manzar Zaidi

January 17, 2025

Courtesy: The Tribune Express

 

The violence in Gaza is a powder keg, with extremist groups poised to exploit the narrative of 'us against them' perhaps like never before. Once, or rather if, the dust in Gaza starts settling down, the extremist narrative would be: "We were right, and the Muslim world or ummah just sat by and let this happen - they had no answer to this." This narrative has already tremendously empowered indigenous extremists in Muslim-majority nations. They will be able to emphasise how their governments just 'sat by' and let the Gaza 'genocide' happen, which would become an enduring recruitment poster for years to come.

Global antisemitism has heightened, which has blurred the lines between anti-Israel sentiment and animosity towards Jewish communities. This produced unlikely allies, such as when certain American far-right groups superimposed swastikas on Palestinian flags, and started equating Hamas with the Waffen-SS. This does not mean in any way that these far-right groups identified with Hamas, since it is debatable who they hate most vehemently- Muslims or Jews. This was more of a propaganda windfall for these groups than anything else, but it did demonstrate the polarising effect of the Gaza conflict, far beyond the Middle East. It will be felt in Pakistan, strongly.

This opportunism is a key factor in the recruitment of extremist groups globally, and 2024 has given plenty of hate material to them for dissemination. The current geopolitical positioning in the Middle East would also enable extremist factions to exploit this situation, to gain ground. Anti-Semitism would foreseeably become even more attractive as a recruitment driver.

Syria would be key, as much so as it was during the Islamic State's ascension in Raqqa. An assortment of militant leadership, many previously designated as terrorists are now taking over as the de facto government of Syria. For instance, Abu Mohammad al-Jawlani, who heads HTS, had a ten-million-dollar bounty placed on his head by the USA. HTS is posturing as a more moderate Islamist assortment of militant entities; this may be sincere or merely a temporary ruse to divert international attention. However, even if they try to distance themselves from a Taliban style of Government in Afghanistan, their track record of governance in Idlib was undeniably, a hardline Sharia Statehood. Even if HTS leadership start now wearing blazers for posing in pictures with women for international media, how will this play out in the long run? Keeping this in context, a vast majority of their cadres and commanders, in fact almost all of them, are hardline Islamists, who might not reconcile smoothly with this transition.

It also remains to be seen if attrition wars will start between the long-oppressed Sunni majority of Syria and the Shias, as they did after the US invasion of neighboring Iraq, albeit in the opposite manner. This can have a serious polarising effect on the sectarian landscape in Pakistan as well. What is almost certain is that major powers will start aligning themselves around newly emerging proxy powers in Syria. This will empower new groups or splinter groups in the country, while also emboldening local jihadists around the world.

Videos have already emerged in Syria of Pakistani militants helping to take over Syria, much as they did when the IS 'occupied' Iraq and Syria. At that time, there were several copycat groups that emerged in Pakistan and pledged allegiance to IS, and this is foreseeably set to happen again, in the aftermath of the recent 'great victory' in Syria.

Victory for some groups in Syria has meant defeat, or at least temporary setbacks. Some groups might strategically retreat from Syria, such as the Iranian proxy Zainabiyoun Brigade. This group has a significant number of militants from Kurram in Pakistan, which is already a hotbed of sectarian conflict, often disguised as land feuds. Many, or at least a significant number of these militants, mostly from Parachinar, may return to Pakistan. This may escalate the sectarian conflict not only in Kurram, but perhaps in the entire country. It needs to be remembered that the Shiite Zainabiyoun Brigade has been a significant contributor to Pakistan's sectarian landscape in recent years.

As for proxy wars, Iran is down, but far from out. Confrontation between the US and Hezbollah is set to open up a diverse range of terrorist activities in theaters as far away as Asia, South America and Eastern Europe, as demonstrated by recent arrests in Brazil of Hezbollah operatives.

Syria will invigorate several other conflicts, extending far beyond the region. The Sahel, for instance, might see Boko Haram's insurgency spurred on by the Syrian victory. Boko Haram was one of the first groups in the Sahel to pledge allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, then leader of IS, at the height of the Islamic State's ascendancy in Iraq and Syria. While the Syrian HTS leadership broke away from IS, one needs to keep in mind they were, essentially, the core of IS.

What effects may the Syrian scenario produce in Pakistan?

It seems logical that HTS 'copycat clones' may arise in Pakistan, either directly pledging allegiance to HTS, or associating with it in some respect. This great victory may also embolden experimentation with addressing social justice issues, which is a common tactic employed by almost all Islamist groups. For instance, TTP, Lashkar-e-Islam, and in fact almost all major anti-state groups in Pakistan, tried to implement Sharia law in their areas of interest by setting up Qazi courts, ostensibly to dispense swift justice. We might see similar efforts again, albeit on a smaller scale than the TTP.

At the height of the TTP's ascendancy, when there was news that it was 'nearing' Islamabad, 'lone-wolf' vigilantes started emerging. For instance, there were reported incidents of persons verbally or physically assaulting women, ostensibly for not dressing modestly. Law enforcement crackdowns crushed these incidents, as did the Pakistan Army's anti-terrorism campaign. However, extremist ideologies will try coupling the genocide in Gaza to the great victory in Syria, in efforts to gain more traction - this might be difficult to counter.

As we speak, almost undeniably, the Syrian victory is producing role models for Pakistani extremists. It might not be a bad idea to take stock of this now, rather than later, as we tend to do.

 

 

Time to refresh our Liddle Hart

By: Shahzad Chaudhry

January 17, 2025

Courtesy: The Tribune Express

 

Captain B H Liddle Hart was a British historian and a military theorist from the period between the two great wars. His most famous theory still taught at military schools and war colleges around the world is of the indirect strategy. He theorised that frontal assault, or steel-on-steel, hardly bore fruit; rather extracted a heavy price in men and material without any dividend to the aims of war. That gave birth to stratagem, and manouvre warfare. To him each war had a political purpose and if war did not contribute to political purpose, it was futile and wasteful. He thus proffered: "In all decisive campaigns, the dislocation of the enemy's psychological and physical balance has been the vital prelude to the overthrow." This forces the enemy in a lag ceding initiative as it now plays catch-up. To this end pitching your best against adversary's best is a losing proposition and an unproductive undertaking.

Review what ails us as a nation and engages our most attention, especially in the domain of security along the borders. Afghanistan stands out for its currency and daily occupation. Balochistan, bordering Iran, is a long festering wound with little to no hope for immediate relief. Kashmir, that we keep close to our heart, has had to be put back in priority for the two pressing problems above. Mere military force or its impact, that we could count on for effect and influence, has mellowed before non-kinetic factors like economic and technological inadequacies. Economic strength is wherefrom a nation will derive relevance and influence. China shines as an unmatched example in this category.

While we celebrated the end of war in Afghanistan when the US decided to evacuate peace hasn't returned to the region. TTP and ISIS-K continue to occupy our minds and focus. The Afghans may yet again boast being the 'graveyard of empires' but without true dividends in economic and social progress. Unless Afghans as a nation change their ways and disposition to the two terror outfits that still use their soil the change of guard will only mean replacing one contentious and ineffective order with another conflictual and ungovernable one. That is zero progress despite the end of war - except the bombs don't rain down anymore. An active cross-border engagement between militants and neighbouring Pakistan may seem a convenient distraction away from Afghanistan's internal inadequacies in a Taliban regime but isn't the recipe that will bring solace and comfort to a nation blighted by four decades of war.

For Pakistan it is throwing its most valuable asset, its military, in the way of a futile war even if it be to fight the evil unleashed by groups like the TTP. Following the Liddle Hart line of thinking forcing Pakistan's military to fight ungainly battles is any enemy's dream come true. It takes Pakistan away from its strategic purpose of finding peace enabling sustainable economic activity while conserving its strength against its most critical enemies. Considering Pakistan's internal instability is rooted in its dismal economic state resulting in social unrest displayed in acute political division, military and kinetic options aren't the most optimal means to creating an environment of stability and predictability. The presence of war, even if irregular or unconventional, scares investment away, slowing the economy down till it merely exists. KP and Balochistan economies are a case in point even if in relative terms.

If Pakistan is struggling to attain peace to usher economic stability Afghanistan too is shorn of any meaningful social and economic progress. Warring groups on its soil are a continuation of kinetic wars if of another kind spawning equal unease for its own business environment denying its people the benefit of peace and predictability. Looked at from that angle both Pakistan and Afghanistan are in desperate need for a common commodity, peace, tranquility and predictability which can help establish more assured environment for economic activity in their respective countries.

Wars are not the only means to win peace, especially if those are long and protracted. Pakistan's brush with such wars in the recent past points to a long painstaking effort invoking huge costs in blood, sweat and toil. Peace attained at such cost was at best transitory till another round loomed. In the journey of nations when events shape at breakneck speed, time is of essence. In the age of accelerations to lag is to cede and ultimately become irrelevant. We are on the verge of becoming irrelevant in this spate of unending wars. This is where reviewing and reinvoking Liddle Hart and his theory of indirect strategy becomes important.

If war isn't working or not working fast enough, change the paradigm of engagement. Considering, almost a 100 million people live on the other side of Afghanistan in Central Asia which has energy to trade and share with consuming societies in Pakistan and beyond, Afghanistan's traditional status of a Great Game buffer must be converted into a link instead which can join markets to commodities. This will turn Afghanistan from buffer to a strategic enabler. Absence of strife and war and a workable infrastructure plan can convince Afghanistan to instead become the economic hub for the entire region. China urged by Pakistan and Afghanistan must take the lead and create an economic zone linking all the countries in the region into an economic bloc. The arrangement must be reduced into a West Asian Trading Order.

Wakhan in Badakhshan province of Afghanistan is already in the news. China has a favourable ingress in the region. It is time to model Wakhan from a forced separator into a connector. Away from the hullabaloo in the media on some adventurous mentions it will need a more organised and deeply thought and coordinated plan among nations to determine if indeed using a part of Afghanistan as an adhesive than a separator of regions is something that will enable a China-led and China-sponsored economic space. Afghanistan, China, Tajikistan and Pakistan can be the founding members with others to follow.

If the model succeeds, we could look at creating similar connective zones of engagement, primarily trade and economic, among adjoining regions of FATA and the neighbouring provinces of Afghanistan and then Balochistan-Iran contiguity. It will address underlying unease and disaffection, hopefully enthusing common stakes and purpose to ensure peace for maximising prosperity through peace. When direct strategy to earn peace is elusive, a change of stratagem may just work. Peace after all is what underlies any chance of economic recoupment and promise of progress and development. If we make it a choice for the entire region, we can win peace for all. It can often open more pathways to lingering problems including legacy issues.

In strategy, the longest way round is often the shortest way home.

 

 

One step forward, two steps back

By: Rabiya Javeri Agha

January 17, 2025

Courtesy: The News International

 

As we stand at the threshold of 2025, Pakistan faces a moment of reckoning – a year shaped by the successes and struggles of the past.

The contradictions of 2024 linger in our collective memory: hard-won achievements in human rights, tempered by persistent challenges that demand urgent attention. Yet, this new year offers more than reflection; it offers an opportunity to confront systemic issues head-on, transform lessons into meaningful action, and chart a path toward a kinder, more equitable future.

Amidst its complexities, 2024 brought several milestones in Pakistan’s human rights journey. The National Commission for Human Rights (NCHR) secured ‘A’ status accreditation from the Global Alliance of National Human Rights Institutions (GANHRI) – a historic achievement that positions the commission as a credible voice in international human rights discourse. This recognition reflects a commitment to aligning domestic policies with international standards and strengthens Pakistan’s standing on the global stage.

Legislative progress, though limited, saw a notable breakthrough with the addition of Article 9A to the constitution, enshrining the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment as a fundamental guarantee. This landmark move set a powerful precedent for future reforms. Other strides included the abolition of the death penalty for railway sabotage and narcotics offences, while the landmark Safia Bano case signalled the judiciary’s evolving stance on protecting individuals with severe psychosocial disabilities from capital punishment – a decision that paves the way for formal legislative action.

An important gesture of humanitarian goodwill came through Pakistan’s unilateral repatriation of 650 Indian fishermen. Amongst the world’s most vulnerable communities, fisherfolk are far from criminals; yet they often find themselves imprisoned for years due to unintentional maritime boundary violations caused by poorly defined borders, inclement weather, or the pursuit of richer fishing grounds in the Arabian Sea. Tragically, many remain in jail long after completing their sentences, trapped simply by bureaucratic inertia. Their return home was not just a positive policy decision but a meaningful demonstration of diplomatic magnanimity.

Efforts to address the digital gender divide also gained momentum in 2024. The Pakistan Telecommunications Authority’s Digital Gender Inclusion Strategy set ambitious goals to improve women’s digital literacy and reduce disparities, reflecting a shift toward empowering marginalised groups in an increasingly interconnected world.

On the international front, Pakistan championed climate justice. Its role in operationalising the Loss and Damage Fund and securing a Pakistani expert on the fund’s board underscored its commitment to advocating for vulnerable nations impacted by climate change.

Yet, these achievements were overshadowed by enduring challenges that tested the nation’s resilience. Political divisions and institutional struggles led to widespread violations of fundamental rights.

Protests following the elections were met with detentions and barriers to peaceful assembly. The Baloch National Gathering, highlighting enforced disappearances, faced harsh measures, underscoring persistent gaps in governance and accountability.

Freedom of expression came under attack. Restrictive laws and heightened surveillance stifled online discourse, while internet shutdowns, costing the economy Rs1.3 billion per day, further limited civic engagement. The introduction of a national firewall added to the strain on digital freedoms.

Religious intolerance continued to fracture the nation’s social fabric. Misuse of blasphemy laws fuelled mob attacks leaving vulnerable communities in constant fear. Heart-wrenching turmoil and sectarian violence engulfed Parachinar, Kurram. Despite judicial mandates for protective measures, poor implementation and administrative failures compounded societal inequities, further marginalising and tearing communities apart.

Economic and social disparities disproportionately affected marginalised groups. Non-Muslim workers remained trapped in low-paying, stigmatised roles, while bonded labour and child exploitation highlighted the urgent need for stronger protections and equal opportunities.

As we move deeper into the new year, the lessons of 2024 provide a clear roadmap for change. Achievements like the NCHR’s elevated status and legislative initiatives offer a foundation, but true change demands addressing structural weaknesses with urgency and intent.

Judicial independence must be safeguarded to ensure it serves as a bulwark against overreach. Equally critical is the restoration of freedom of expression. Repealing restrictive laws, restoring access to digital platforms, and fostering open dialogue are essential to rebuilding trust and accountability.

For minorities and marginalised communities, targeted long-term reforms are vital. Implementing protective measures, institutional strengthening, promoting tolerance through inclusive education, and ensuring equitable employment practices can dismantle entrenched discrimination and foster a sense of belonging.

Civil society must remain at the forefront, amplifying the voices of the unheard. Strengthening partnerships between civil society and the government can drive initiatives that address humanitarian needs, promote justice and champion equity.

Ultimately, 2025 holds the promise of transformation. By embracing inclusion, accountability, and dialogue, Pakistan can chart a path toward a society that upholds the dignity and rights of all its citizens – a legacy worthy of the sacrifices and aspirations that have shaped its history.

 

 

A dose of diplomacy

By: Suhail Warraich

January 17, 2025

Courtesy: The News International

 

President-elect Donald Trump has been causing severe anxieties across the globe. No matter whether a country is an ally or foe of the United States, the Trump situation has spared no one. Whether it’s close allies like Canada and the UK or adversaries like China, everyone is feeling the fever.

Pakistan, with its long-standing strategic relationship with the US, is no exception. Both countries have fought wars together and carried out covert operations around the world. However, despite their close military ties, their approach towards each other has often been contradictory.

For the US, these relationships have always been transactional, while Pakistani officials have often viewed them as sincere gestures. This divergence in perspectives may stem from the difference between Western and Eastern thinking. But not all Eastern nations behave like emotional Pakistanis.

For example, Egypt and Turkey have managed to strike transactional deals with the US when necessary, but Pakistan has extended military support without demanding any solid deals in return. This has often been criticised as a ‘cheap sale’. During both Afghan wars, many international observers considered Pakistan’s role mercenary-like. However, in truth, Pakistan acted more as a volunteer, not even receiving handsome deals for its sacrifices.

The Trump situation, with its transactional approach, may be easier to handle. With a president who demands the best deal in exchange for his wishes, Pakistan could simply negotiate a high price for its cooperation. Pakistan, though a relatively small state, has never blindly accepted all US policies, especially regarding the Middle East and its own nuclear programme. While Pakistan has fought six wars, often with the open or covert support of the US, there have also been moments where the countries’ interests have diverged.

For decades, the US has pressured Pakistan to halt its nuclear and missile programmes, but Pakistan has remained resolute in its pursuit of security. This has been done quietly, without drawing too much attention. A month before the recent sanctions on Pakistan’s missile programme, US State Department official Donald Lu (the same official who was allegedly named in a cipher conspiracy against Imran Khan’s government) called Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington. Lu warned Pakistan to halt its missile programme because, he claimed, it was now targeting the US.

The Pakistani side, surprised, explained that their missile programme was not aimed at the US, but at India. They pointed out that their missile targets were specific to India, such as moving objects in the waters of the Nicobar Islands, which are part of Indian territory. Lu, however, dismissed this logic, and the US went ahead with sanctions, including banning the country’s supreme institution overseeing missile development.

Let me share a personal anecdote about Mohtarma Benazir Bhutto, often referred to as the ‘Darling of the West’ by her detractors. Sometimes, perceptions are far from reality. Benazir, in fact, was a true ‘Daughter of the East’, deeply patriotic and committed to her country. However, stories were fabricated about her being pro-Western and pro-India, which were ultimately proven false.

I once had a meeting with Mohtarma in Dubai, where former Sindh chief minister Aftab Shaban Mirani was also present. During our conversation, Mohtarma mentioned that Mirani was in Dubai to discuss a forthcoming meeting with the US ambassador in Pakistan.

In a slightly sarcastic tone, I remarked, “BB, you and the Americans are now one. Both have the same worldview, same agenda, especially since you’re fighting the Taliban together in Afghanistan.” Benazir Bhutto, noticing my ironic smile, asked, “Are you serious?” I nodded in half-agreement.

Then, in a firm voice, Benazir reprimanded me, saying, “The Americans have only one agenda in Pakistan: they want to dismantle Pakistan’s nuclear programme.” She went on to reveal how she had facilitated the transfer of missile technology from North Korea to Pakistan. This conversation was strictly off the record, and I kept it that way until her tragic assassination. I only disclosed it years later, in my 2011 book ‘Qatil Kaun’ – published three and a half years after her death.

Now, as the Trump fever spreads rapidly across the world, Pakistan is gearing up on how to handle it. If a transactional settlement is needed, Pakistan will certainly ask for a high price. Efforts are underway to neutralise Trump’s influence through diplomacy, defence channels, and the Pakistani diaspora. The US is facing a difficult position, especially in its support of the Taliban, with increasing opposition from within the country, particularly from Republicans. If tensions rise between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan, Trump may be left with little choice but to support Pakistan.

My hunch is that the growing meetings between Pakistani military leaders and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) must have addressed Trump’s interference in Pakistan’s affairs, and Pakistan may have asked MBS for assistance. MBS, after all, is seen as Trump’s ‘trump card’ in the Muslim world. Should all else fail, Pakistan may be forced to defy the US and form an open alliance with the China-Russia bloc. While efforts to thaw relations with longtime adversary Russia are ongoing, Pakistan’s strategic relationship with China remains strong, and it’s only building stronger ties with Russia.

In my humble opinion, the Trump problem is real, it’s here, and we are all in the same feverish boat. But with the right treatment, maybe we can all avoid the worst symptoms of this situation. The best way to deal with this is with patience, without being reactive. Pakistan can navigate through this global crisis with a cool head and steady diplomacy. It should maintain a careful balance between China and the US, as breaking away from the US would have disastrous consequences. The best course of action is to lie low and let the storm pass over us.



 

 

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